The KiloMetric

[BoSox Rule]

Is this the Manila Metric or are there any changes in it or?

[jacksonianmarch]

so much for the prognosticative value as of right now. As the yankees are just murdering the Guardians.

[Optimist]

8/10 - 8/12 @ CLE : 1-2 -> 64-53

 

Well...so much for the "KiloMetric"...

[TheKilo]

Well...so much for the "KiloMetric"...

 

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

 

Give me a break. Come talk to me at the end of the season.

[TheKilo]

On a more serious note, the Sox lose 3 games to the metric here and find themselves once again in a race with the Yankees. Awful series from the 'pen costs them two games they should have won.

 

Tough series with the Rays coming up as they face both Shields and Kazmir.

[soxfan51]

What you say makes sense -- only hope it becomes reality ...

[yankees228]

Well...so much for the "KiloMetric"...

 

It's easy to see why he would make the projection. Even if you thought that they would win the series, you can't honestly tell me you thought they would have swept.

 

He made this thread knowing he's going to be wrong at times. You can't get on him for every series that he gets wrong, and for what it's worth, I'm don't think Kilo intending this as a insult thread to the Yankees. He predicted that they would take both series from the Red Sox...

[TheKilo]

Yanks and Sox both lose a game to the Metric but the Sox gain a game overall, which is what I expected them to do over this series anyway.

 

Red Sox:

 

Predicted: 74-46

Actual: 72-48 (-2)

 

Yankees:

 

Predicted: 66-54

Actual: 67-53 +1

 

 

The Sox are in total three games off of their pace.

[TheKilo]

Sox maintain their pace, and the Yanks pick up another game on what has truly become a pathetic Detroit team.

 

Red Sox:

 

Predicted - (76-48)

Actual - (74-50) (-2)

 

 

Yankees:

 

Predicted - (68-56)

Actual - (70-54) (+2)

 

 

Sox need to make up some ground over the next week before heading to the Bronx, luckily they are facing the teams to do it against. I'm starting to feel 6-1 or even 5-2 would put them right back on the pace I laid out for them.

 

Yanks have a tough series in LAA but then go to Detroit, where the Tigers will hopefully stop their freefall long enough to sack up and beat the Yanks.

[TheKilo]

Both teams perform as I had expected. Sox win 2/3, Yanks lose 2/3.

 

 

Red Sox:

 

Predicted: 78-49

Actual: 76-51 (-2)

 

 

Yankees:

 

Predicted: 69-58

Actual: 71-56 (+2)

 

 

Sox really should be thinking 3/4 in Chicago, as the ChiSox could be the second worst team in the league. I fully expect the Yanks to at least split this weekend in Detroit so look for them to pick up even more games on my predictions. In short, Detroit sucks.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

The Red Sox are even with the prediction now.

[TheKilo]

The Red Sox are even with the prediction now.

 

Sadly, they are one back.

 

Red Sox -

 

Predicted - 81-53

Actual - 80-54 (-1)

 

 

Yankees -

 

Predicted - 72-62

Actual - 75-59 (+3)

 

 

Sox lose a chance to essentially end the division race, but losing Manny for 2/3 games will do that for you. Luckily, we get the O's this weekend and we miss Erik Bedard, who has been scratched from his start Friday night against Wakefield.

 

Yanks get 3 with the lowly Rays and somehow miss Kazmir and Shields again.

[TheKilo]

Sox keep pace, Yanks finally lose some ground.

 

 

Red Sox:

 

Predicted - 83-54

Actual - 82-55 (-1)

 

 

Yankees:

 

Predicted - 75-62

Actual - 76-61 (+1)

 

 

Interesting series coming up. The Sox have the Jays, who split a 4 game home series right after the ASB with them. Luckily, we miss AJ Burnett who pitched today. Yanks can go a long way in ending the WC race and knock the Mariners right out of contention.

[yankees228]

In terms of your point about the Yankees, I agree with the last thing you said but not first. They can certainly put some distance between themselves and the Mariners, but I really think their toughest competition down the stretch will come from the Tigers.

[TheKilo]

In terms of your point about the Yankees' date=' I agree with the last thing you said but not first. They can certainly put some distance between themselves and the Mariners, but I really think their toughest competition down the stretch will come from the Tigers.[/quote']

 

Yes and no, but I don't feel the Tigers have a prolonged winning streak in them, which is what it's going to take to catch NYY.

[YAZMAN]

Yes and no' date=' but I don't feel the Tigers have a prolonged winning streak in them, which is what it's going to take to catch NYY.[/quote']

 

But can Seattle possibly continue to suck so bad? They've got to average out a bit from their current nine game skid.

[TheKilo]

But can Seattle possibly continue to suck so bad? They've got to average out a bit from their current nine game skid.

 

Yes, they were outperforming their pyth record all year. This is called a regression to the mean.

[YAZMAN]

Yes' date=' they were outperforming their pyth record all year. This is called a regression to the mean.[/quote']

 

Right, and e=mc^2

 

http://webs.lanset.com/aeolusaero/images/einstein%27s%20tongue.jpg

[TheKilo]

Right, and e=mc^2

 

http://webs.lanset.com/aeolusaero/images/einstein%27s%20tongue.jpg

 

Do you even know what I'm talking about? No?

 

Thanks for playing, then.

[YAZMAN]

Do you even know what I'm talking about? No?

 

Thanks for playing, then.

 

Yes. I took plenty of math right through Calculus. I also played a ton of baseball. Life occurs around the law of averages. Life also occurs on the field, and in books and numbers. I chose to live mine as a player, others kept score. It's an easy game; you catch the ball, you hit the ball, you throw the ball - unless you can't, then you keep score and crunch numbers. Lighten up, the pic was a joke.

 

PS - Your legs are squared.

[TheKilo]

Yes. I took plenty of math right through Calculus. I also played a ton of baseball. Life occurs around the law of averages. Life also occurs on the field, and in books and numbers. I chose to live mine as a player, others kept score. It's an easy game; you catch the ball, you hit the ball, you throw the ball - unless you can't, then you keep score and crunch numbers. Lighten up, the pic was a joke.

 

PS - Your legs are squared.

 

Well congrats, but I still don't think you know what their Pythagorean Record is all about.

[yankees228]

Yes. I took plenty of math right through Calculus. I also played a ton of baseball. Life occurs around the law of averages. Life also occurs on the field, and in books and numbers. I chose to live mine as a player, others kept score. It's an easy game; you catch the ball, you hit the ball, you throw the ball - unless you can't, then you keep score and crunch numbers. Lighten up, the pic was a joke.

 

PS - Your legs are squared.

 

So you're taking a shot at people who enjoy viewing baseball from a statistical point of view simply because you don't understand their principles and ideas?

[YAZMAN]

So you're taking a shot at people who enjoy viewing baseball from a statistical point of view simply because you don't understand their principles and ideas?

 

I understand it, it's a neat little tool which predicts future results and correlates nicely with teams winning percentages. Great. It does not tell you where your team is weak, where your players need to improve, or where your team has exploited to be successsful. I'm much more into the human performance and strategic aspects of the game. At the end of many games the difference between winning and losing, success and failure, boils down to nuance. I appreciate the subtleties of a batter's grip, the position of the hands in the stance, pitch selection and location, etc. And I love to see the adjustments made by players as a game progresses.

 

I appreciate a player's ability to perform in a state of flux much more than the numbers they accumulate while doing so. Statistics are like a bikini......what they show is revealing, but what they hide is crucial.

 

I have no beef with Kilo, the smart a$$ pic was a response to a smart a$$ comment. I enjoy the repartee as does Kilo as well it appears . Now at 7 games back, shouldn't you be worried about something other than trying to stir up some crap on the board? Clemens and Mussina combined for a real dandy there yesterday, eh?

[rician blast]

Yes' date=' they were outperforming their pyth record all year. This is called a regression to the mean.[/quote']

 

 

Funny this topic should come up, I was reading something on pyth use in baseball and found something that surprised me.

 

There's a guy into stats who takes this, in my opinion, too far by stating that, for example, a team that outperforms its pyth by say 20 one year, would underperform it by 20 the next. He called it the boomerang effect.

 

Iliken this to the idiots who think because a coin flip resulted in heads three times in a row, that tails "must be coming up now!"

 

However, regression to the mean, in its true sense, makes absolute sense. A .500 team that plays out its ass and wins 10 in a row can be expected to perform more in line with their established standards (win half, lose half) of performance going forward...but it doesn't mean they're "due to lose 10 in a row."

[ORS]

I got into an argument with a guy, an industrial engineer of all people, who insisted that the the probability of a coin flip after 5 straight heads was hugely in favor of tails.

 

I understand it, it's a neat little tool which predicts future results and correlates nicely with teams winning percentages. Great. It does not tell you where your team is weak, where your players need to improve, or where your team has exploited to be successsful.

No, it doesn't tell you those things, but that's why it's only one of a myriad of stats. The others are where you look for answers to those questions. The utility of pyth is exactly as you state it, and, to me, that kind of information is useful when looking at teams heading down the stretch.

[yankees228]

I understand it, it's a neat little tool which predicts future results and correlates nicely with teams winning percentages. Great. It does not tell you where your team is weak, where your players need to improve, or where your team has exploited to be successsful. I'm much more into the human performance and strategic aspects of the game. At the end of many games the difference between winning and losing, success and failure, boils down to nuance. I appreciate the subtleties of a batter's grip, the position of the hands in the stance, pitch selection and location, etc. And I love to see the adjustments made by players as a game progresses.

 

I appreciate a player's ability to perform in a state of flux much more than the numbers they accumulate while doing so. Statistics are like a bikini......what they show is revealing, but what they hide is crucial.

 

I have no beef with Kilo, the smart a$$ pic was a response to a smart a$$ comment. I enjoy the repartee as does Kilo as well it appears . Now at 7 games back, shouldn't you be worried about something other than trying to stir up some crap on the board? Clemens and Mussina combined for a real dandy there yesterday, eh?

 

Believe me, of all the Yankee fans on this board I think I "stir up the least crap". I try to be quite fair and objective when it comes to the Yankees and the Red Sox.

 

As for my comments, I said what I said because I thought you were disregarding a statistic which is a very good tool for determining a team's future performance. If you do have a total understand for pyth., then my apologies, but it is also my believe that pyth. is a very useful stat.

[TheKilo]

Funny this topic should come up, I was reading something on pyth use in baseball and found something that surprised me.

 

There's a guy into stats who takes this, in my opinion, too far by stating that, for example, a team that outperforms its pyth by say 20 one year, would underperform it by 20 the next. He called it the boomerang effect.

 

Iliken this to the idiots who think because a coin flip resulted in heads three times in a row, that tails "must be coming up now!"

 

However, regression to the mean, in its true sense, makes absolute sense. A .500 team that plays out its ass and wins 10 in a row can be expected to perform more in line with their established standards (win half, lose half) of performance going forward...but it doesn't mean they're "due to lose 10 in a row."

 

That's a very good point but you also must concede that the rate in which the M's were giving up runs does not make the 9 game losing streak out of the ordinary, which is really my point.

[TheKilo]

Yanks and Sox perform as expected.

 

Red Sox:

 

Predicted - 85-55

Actual - 84-56 (-1)

 

 

Yankees:

 

Predicted - 77-63

Actual - 78-62 (+1)

 

 

Sox could really pick up some games this weekend, I have them going 2-2 against the O's but if Bedard isn't pitching 3 wins should be expected. I won't call a sweep.

 

Yanks on the road in KC, is it too much to ask for the RoyAAAAls to win one game?

[jacksonianmarch]

the only game we lost to the Royals this season, Kei Igawa threw.

[ORS]

Yeah, but is Moose any different now?