Jacoby Ellsbury

[TheKilo]

The reason that you should have had faith in Pedroia is because he is a good player and his numbers back it up. Consistently. Talking about guys starting slow or starting fast' date=' and being able to some how 'make up' those numbers later because they get better or try harder is, in my opinion, BS. It is no more a factor than 'clutch hitting'. It is, as I say time and time again, a game of inches not super-abilities. Some guys are just overall better hitters than most of their peers and over the long haul it shows. Some years a guy will start strong, other years slowly. Good players even out around their career norms; Pedroia was one of those, Ellsbury is another.[/quote']

 

But if you look at Pedroia's career, he's always had a bit of a slow start once he's been promoted, but after an adjustment period he has performed very, very well. Ellsbury never did that in AAA, which is why I thought the comparison really wasn't valid. I mean, I think Ellsbury is going to be a very good player but I also think we need to temper our enthusiasm about him, because if he was struggling a bit in AAA it makes sense he'd do so in the bigs at some point.

 

 

 

There have been times in the last 4 days that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have seemed over matched. It happens some times in baseball. Ellsbury had a hard hit single in one game, a hard line out in another, and a number of ground balls. He has had 10 ABs, and has not struck out. You can call it over matched, I will just call them at-bats. Coco or Lugo or WMP or Ortiz or Drew or Varitek could have done the EXACT SAME THING and you wouldn't bat an eye.

 

The difference between Ellsbury and the other players you mentioned is a proven MLB track record. Each of those players have had some sustained success (read - more than 4 games) in the majors. Again, let Ellsbury play for a month or two before we start hyping him up.

 

The idea that guys need some long adjustment period every time they come into the majors is bunk. Guys DESERVE a long adjustment period, in the sense that the fans shouldn't get on them if they are slow, but the idea that a guy necessarily has to go through one and his playing on the team would therefore be detremental to the success of the team is speculative at best.

 

Why is it bunk? The improvement of pitching from AAA to the majors should at the very least suggest that a player may have a tough time adjusting.

 

 

So? The point is that people say Ellsbury doesn't have much power and therefore can't be a superstar. I say that we measure power with SLG, and Ellsbury has had the same SLG as Ichiro has. If we acknowledge that Ichiro has been an extremely effective superstar despite not having power, and if we acknowledge that it is likely that Ellsbury will continue his career SLG avg when he's in the bigs, then it seems realistic to think of Ellsbury as an extremely effective superstar. The lack of power doesn't seem to preclude other such players.

 

This is a dangerous assumption, is it not? Again, Ichiro has performed aa much higher level than Ellsbury has for a longer period of time. Again, let's just temper the enthusiasm.

[example1]

But if you look at Pedroia's career' date=' he's always had a bit of a slow start once he's been promoted, but after an adjustment period he has performed very, very well. Ellsbury never did that in AAA, which is why I thought the comparison really wasn't valid. I mean, I think Ellsbury is going to be a very good player but I also think we need to temper our enthusiasm about him, because if he was struggling a bit in AAA it makes sense he'd do so in the bigs at some point. [/quote']

 

Just because Pedroia has some pattern about how he tends to adjust to a new league does not mean that every player has some set period of adjustment or a pattern of adjustment. Your sample size is Pedroia, not every single player who has ever played. Ellsbury may need a long time to adjust, or he may not. Ellsbury may always start strong and then suddenly the adjustment period 'catches up to him'. Of course, it would be perfectly valid to look for some other factor that causes Ellsbury to be slower during weeks 3-6 of his placement at any given level, such as a string of LHP, or hard-throwers, or soft-tossers, or good fielding 2Bs, or the need for him to overexert himself in the field or on the basepaths... a good statistician has to eliminate all the other factors before deciding that Ellsbury does or does not have a pattern to how he starts when talking about multiple levels in the organization, his first years as a pro player, etc.,

 

The difference between Ellsbury and the other players you mentioned is a proven MLB track record. Each of those players have had some sustained success (read - more than 4 games) in the majors. Again, let Ellsbury play for a month or two before we start hyping him up.

 

That's the only difference and I (along with many other fans, as well as likely most GMs in baseball) think it may be insignificant. His lack of a proven MLB track record? Wouldn't the same criticism apply to Clay Buchholz or Phil Hughes, Ryan Howard 3 seasons ago? How about just his actual track record? Did you need an extensive track record to know that Jose Reyes belonged in the majors, or that Ryan Zimmerman could field at an above MLB level? This is the same conservative approach that so many people used when talking about Matsuzaka, as if he would immediately become a completely different pitcher when he came to the USA, despite his actual track record of success at a high level.

 

The fact that teams are willing to trade away their players with established MLB track-records (Lowell, Beckett, Pierzinski, Slocumb) for guys without a track record (Hanley Ramirez/Anibal Sanchez, Joe Nathan/Francisco Liriano, Varitek/Lowe) should indicate that what you are saying isn't even an accurate representation of how the game actually works. There is something to be said for MLB experience, it certainly is a better predictor of how good a player will be. However, there is also a time in a player's life when he has no experience but will be given the chance. At some point a team needs to make the leap of faith and just give a kid a chance to prove himself.

 

The "Hype" you talk about is nothing more than me thinking Ellsbury will eventually reach his career averages, which would be very exciting for a team that has struggled to replace Damon as a good leadoff hitter. He's not going to be superman, but he should contribute to this team and, I think, help them win a World Series.

 

Why is it bunk? The improvement of pitching from AAA to the majors should at the very least suggest that a player may have a tough time adjusting.

 

What is bunk is assuming that all players are going to struggle with that adjustment. It is like talking about a pitcher who gets a lot of strikeouts in the minors or Japan and assuming that their numbers are going to take a dramatic hit because of the improvement of the league.

 

Buchholz may be missing bats by a foot and a half in AA, a foot in AAA and 6 inches in MLB. But who cares, as long as he's missing bats in the MLB? How would you even measure that sort of thing? The same is true for Ellsbury. You can see how he plays, he sprays the ball around with ground balls or linedrives, beats out a lot of balls in the infield, and turns singles into doubles and doubles into triples on balls in the gaps. He may beat them out by 10 feet in AA, 5 feet in AAA and 1 foot in MLB. Who knows?

 

He's not the type to suddenly stop competing and being successful if he struggles early. Again, I don't think he's going to be Willie Mays but he can contribute. That's not hype, it is as plain as day.

 

This is a dangerous assumption, is it not? Again, Ichiro has performed aa much higher level than Ellsbury has for a longer period of time. Again, let's just temper the enthusiasm.

 

The only enthusiasm I have had is that I have advocated that Ellsbury could possibly contribute to this team this season and he should not be prevented because he is young or because he doesn't have an MLB track record. I agree with Pat Casey that he could become a superstar. A good portion of that would be because of his production on the field, but he also has a certain charisma about him that has been infectious at every level. Add to that the fact that he's playing in Boston, and add to that how Boston has treated it's home grown players who turned out to be good (Nomar, Youkilis, Pedroia) and the words superstar and icon could easily apply.

[riverside sluggers]

Odd, Terry said that Ellsbury would be staying with the team through the All-Star break. After tonight's game its been announced that he is being sent down to Pawtucket.

 

On nesn they havent said or even gone to wondering who will be called up in his place. Boston paper sites (Globe, Herald) arent saying about it yet

[example1]

Odd, Terry said that Ellsbury would be staying with the team through the All-Star break. After tonight's game its been announced that he is being sent down to Pawtucket.

 

On nesn they havent said or even gone to wondering who will be called up in his place. Boston paper sites (Globe, Herald) arent saying about it yet

 

It is not really shocking. Ellsbury is a terriffic player who is being held back by Crisp's resurgence. I imagine this log-jam will clear one way or another around the All-Star break, or the Sox will just hold onto Crisp and WMP--both of whom could have some trade value due to age and cost--and bring Jacoby up when the roster expands.

 

It was great that Ellsbury had such a positive experience with the Sox. Hopefully we see more of him soon.

[zackredsox]

Ellsbury first 6 Games in the Majors

6 for 16 (.375 avg) Double, RBI, 3 Runs, SB, 2 walks, OPS .882

 

went 2 for 2 tonight

[BSN07]

I think SOTK said that they where going to bring up Breslow or Hughes. Not positive tho...

[riverside sluggers]

It is not really shocking. Ellsbury is a terriffic player who is being held back by Crisp's resurgence. I imagine this log-jam will clear one way or another around the All-Star break, or the Sox will just hold onto Crisp and WMP--both of whom could have some trade value due to age and cost--and bring Jacoby up when the roster expands.

 

It was great that Ellsbury had such a positive experience with the Sox. Hopefully we see more of him soon.

 

No I was just saying that its odd that usually they announce right away who is being called up

[BoSox21]

I imagine this log-jam will clear one way or another around the All-Star break, or the Sox will just hold onto Crisp and WMP--both of whom could have some trade value due to age and cost--and bring Jacoby up when the roster expands.

 

isnt it weird to say we actually have a log-jam at CF for a change?

[Mr Crunchy]

the outfield in general,with the bloated exception of pena,has performed well since I/L play started

both drew and crisp are at .265 and at are getting on base

crisp is driving the ball and grabs a couple bases here and there

i like him

drew?

hes a proffessional ball player so we can expect him to hit .300 over the 2nd half

the power#s arent there and may never come due to the vastness that is fenways right field but in this lineup he'll get shot at plenty of rbi with the guys in front of him.

 

ellsbury came as advertised,he can hit and he can run

but he does indeed throw like a woman.

 

anyways

as someone said above,his experience here was nothing but positive and he gives us some options down the road

[BSN07]

Yes it does seem we have some options in the OF.

 

What to do about it tho i'm not sure. WMP is producing the least of the bunch. But that could change quickly. Coco could go bottoms up and WMP could get hot in the 2nd half. Or it might stay the same.

 

Coco, is young, cheap, fast, plays a good CF and is finally starting to show life at the plate. He probably has some trade value at this point. But I don't know if its a good idea to move him or to keep him. Problem is Jacoby is basically the same player, but younger, cheaper. Neither is going to be a big run producer. So I don't think that both of them can be on the same roster. One is surely to go. I guess it all depends on what is coming back to us. That may determine who leaves.

 

If one of them can net us Salty from ATL, I'd do it. But it would most likely take a few players. Maybe they would take Coco, so they can fill in the CF hole next yr, plus 1 or 2 decent prospects, and not Bowden, Buccholz, Ellsbury.

[BoSox21]

I'd be nervous about dealing Coco before this off-season cause we'd be relying on a rookie at CF who just made his debut for the stretch run in a season where we have a very good shot at winning it all. But if you do that, you're hoping Coco keeps his stock value high and maybe takes a .285-.290 average into the off-season.

 

but if they wanna get rid of WMP and a mid-level prospect and get a 4th outfielder in return and keep Ellsbury for the stretch run as another spare outfielder/pinch runner, I'd be fine with that

[mtbykr]

They just announced on WEEI that Jeff Bailey will be called up to replace Ellsbury....thus giving the assumption that Youk is done until after the break.

[schillingouttheks]

And I can't say I mind. Give Youk an extended time off and get him back healthy for the second part of the season. With this lead, we need to be extra-cautious with potential long-term injuries.

 

I'm sure it wouldn't kill him to give us one AB late in the game if we need a PH (and you know he'd probably be the first one to tell Tito to give him the at bat), so all is well.

[mtbykr]

actually i heard that last night before the game he told tito he would be available to PH if needed.....i don't youk would ever say he couldn't go unless he was on his death bed.

[example1]

Any chance Ellsbury comes back after the break? He wouldn't have been eligable to play in the Futures game if he was with the big club, but he certainly contributed some nice ABs and some runs and defensive security. :dunno:

[jacksonianmarch]

It all depends on Coco. I think his nice debut and Coco's strong stint of late have turned some heads. And I think those heads are starting to line WMP's head under the chopping block. I really think Wily is going to be suiting up with another club come August.

[example1]

It all depends on Coco. I think his nice debut and Coco's strong stint of late have turned some heads. And I think those heads are starting to line WMP's head under the chopping block. I really think Wily is going to be suiting up with another club come August.

 

I tend to agree.

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

It all depends on Coco. I think his nice debut and Coco's strong stint of late have turned some heads. And I think those heads are starting to line WMP's head under the chopping block. I really think Wily is going to be suiting up with another club come August.

 

I agree with that.

 

He never fit the Red Sox philosophy since day 1. He doesn't put in consistent good at-bats. He plays poorly in the field and he strikes out a ton. Can't make good contact and has very little speed. The Red Sox pride themselves on having good "all around" players who can contribute in multiple ways. I think the Red Sox would be better suited to have any of the outfielders in AAA on the big league club than Wily Mo Pena.

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree with that.

 

He never fit the Red Sox philosophy since day 1. He doesn't put in consistent good at-bats. He plays poorly in the field and he strikes out a ton. Can't make good contact and has very little speed. The Red Sox pride themselves on having good "all around" players who can contribute in multiple ways. I think the Red Sox would be better suited to have any of the outfielders in AAA on the big league club than Wily Mo Pena.

 

I would take Wily in a heartbeat. Because as a team getting close to selling, Wily has the kind of promise and potential that just needs consistent playing time. But that playing time entails that you endure the growing pains. This half season could be the growing pains and then maybe you can see him live up to the hype a little bit. If I were the sox, I'd deal him for some relief help, maybe a Solomon Torres and do right by the club, but also by the player. Wily needs to be sent to a place where he can start with little pressure and grow. That wont happen in Boston.

[Khan]

Can this kid play short?

[zackredsox]

Can this kid play short?

 

no

[Khan]

Thanks

[Teddyballgame10]

Trade WMP for anyone who can play short, they have to be better then Lugo.

[BSN07]

Trade WMP for anyone who can play short' date=' they have to be better then Lugo.[/quote']

 

Good idea but there not alot out there at the moment. Then you have the issue of Lugo and Cora taking up bench spots...

[SCM33]

Trade WMP for anyone who can play short' date=' they have to be better then Lugo.[/quote']

 

..and I am sure teams will be lining up to give us someone who can play short for someone who is an automatic out and is a defensive liability. Christ, if I pitched to WMP i could freeze him with a curveball. Its sad to watch........1.......2.......3 straight curveballs sit down goodnight.

[MarkTaylor]

Trade WMP for anyone who can play short' date=' they have to be better then Lugo.[/quote']

 

why short? we have Cora

[BSN07]

Lugo is heating up, hes showing signs of life, so lets see what happens.

[Teddyballgame10]

All right trade him for anyone middle reliver who is decent, never can have to many relivers, its sad watching him at the dish.

[riverside sluggers]

Actually Teddy... Lugo looks like he's going to have a great 2nd half. All of a sudden he looks like the same guy we saw when he was with Tampa Bay

 

July

11 games- 12 for 32 (.375 avg) (.459 obp) (.500 slg) (.959 ops) Double, HR, 6 RBIs, 5 Runs, 5 Walks, 2 Ks, 4 SBs

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

Actually Teddy... Lugo looks like he's going to have a great 2nd half. All of a sudden he looks like the same guy we saw when he was with Tampa Bay

 

July

11 games- 12 for 32 (.375 avg) (.459 obp) (.500 slg) (.959 ops) Double, HR, 6 RBIs, 5 Runs, 5 Walks, 2 Ks, 4 SBs

 

It's about time right....I mean he really couldn't get any worse. It would be great to see everyone contribute for the 2nd half. The Red Sox had a great start but the season isn't over.