Jacoby Ellsbury

[NateGrey]

I do. Ellsbury is twice the player Kapler ever was. More speed' date=' better arm, and his dives actually get him close to a baseball. He also has better contact. But his swing reminds me of Kapler, thats all.[/quote']

 

.. Ummm, Kapler had a plus-arm dude ..

 

.. ..

[mtbykr]

He's on WEEI now!

 

 

 

Clocked in the 40 at 4.29 in college and says he's faster now

[BoSox21]

apparently he went to a halloween party once as Johnny Damon

[TheKilo]

This was nearly the exact same rap on Dustin Pedroia' date=' roughly 10 months ago and throughout the offseason. No matter how much some of us tried, people would not get off his back, talking about how he looked like he was overmatched [i']and[/i] swinging for the fences, while also making good contact. His minor league numbers speak for themselves. If you are talking about a guy who makes excellent contact despite looking overmatched, then you're talking about a guy who will hit linedrives and hard groundballs when he's comfortable. This guy is an amazing athelete and has been successful at every level and he will be successful at the MLB level soon. There is a reason that many scouting sites and experts claim that he could be the Sox CF by the 08 season.

 

The biggest reason i wasn't worried about Pedroia is he always performed very well after an adjustment period. The same can't be said for Ellsbury at AAA, he never really tookoff there like Pedroia did.

 

 

 

He looks like he is pressing to not waste his ABs while also wanting to rip the ball. Sox hitters are notorious for taking the first pitch and pitches not right in their zone. Ellsbury is a sox hitter, through and through. Again, Pedroia does the same thing.

 

I know you're very pro-Ellsbury, but there have been times that he seems flat out over matched. Again, that's the adjustment he needs to make, like Pedroia did at every level.

 

 

 

Ellsbury has a .430 SLG in the minors this season to go with his .390 OBP. That gives him an OPS of .826. Ichiro has a career .380/.440/.820 OPS. I think Ellsbury is quite a bit faster than Damon. Ichiro could be a better comparison, with a lower AVG.

 

Ellsbury has an OPS of .826 in the minors. Ichiro has his in the majors.

 

Again, let's slow down with the comparisons until he gets more than three games of playing time.

[BoSox21]

with new prospects, I always like to form opinions on them solely based on what they're doing at the major league level. and from what ive seen so far, he's a disciplined hitter who is blessed with the kind of speed where he can just make things happen. he's fun as hell to watch

[SCM33]

The biggest reason i wasn't worried about Pedroia is he always performed very well after an adjustment period. The same can't be said for Ellsbury at AAA' date=' he never really tookoff there like Pedroia did.[/quote']

 

I know you're very pro-Ellsbury' date=' but there have been times that he seems flat out over matched. Again, that's the adjustment he needs to make, like Pedroia did at every level.[/quote']

 

Ellsbury has an OPS of .826 in the minors. Ichiro has his in the majors.

 

Again' date=' let's slow down with the comparisons until he gets more than three games of playing time.[/quote']

 

 

Completely agree with you on all fronts. Those were the points I was trying to make, until I realized everything I said would just be jumped all over. I dont blame people for being excited about the kid......but I really dont think that anyone would disagree with the fact that he has looked a little overmatched, and he didnt tear the cover off the ball at AAA. The kid looks like hes going to be a stud, but after 3 games and a little over 10 ABs lets not go too crazy.

[example1]

unless he roids out for a few yrs' date=' I dont see him having any more than 10 homers in a yr. His swing reminds me a little of Kapler from the left side, but he makes contact a whole lot more.[/quote']

 

That sounds optimistic.

 

I look at him and you know who I see? Carlos Beltran. They look similar and their batting stances are very similar. I don't know where the hell you got Kaplar from. That's not a good comparison at all.

[a700hitter]

unless he roids out for a few yrs' date=' I dont see him having any more than 10 homers in a yr. His swing reminds me a little of Kapler from the left side, but he makes contact a whole lot more.[/quote']His swing is nothing like Kapler's swing which was chppy and mechanical. Ellsburys swing is very fluid and quick.

[example1]

The biggest reason i wasn't worried about Pedroia is he always performed very well after an adjustment period. The same can't be said for Ellsbury at AAA' date=' he never really tookoff there like Pedroia did. [/quote']

 

The reason that you should have had faith in Pedroia is because he is a good player and his numbers back it up. Consistently. Talking about guys starting slow or starting fast, and being able to some how 'make up' those numbers later because they get better or try harder is, in my opinion, BS. It is no more a factor than 'clutch hitting'. It is, as I say time and time again, a game of inches not super-abilities. Some guys are just overall better hitters than most of their peers and over the long haul it shows. Some years a guy will start strong, other years slowly. Good players even out around their career norms; Pedroia was one of those, Ellsbury is another.

 

I know you're very pro-Ellsbury, but there have been times that he seems flat out over matched. Again, that's the adjustment he needs to make, like Pedroia did at every level.

 

There have been times in the last 4 days that David Ortiz and Manny Ramirez have seemed over matched. It happens some times in baseball. Ellsbury had a hard hit single in one game, a hard line out in another, and a number of ground balls. He has had 10 ABs, and has not struck out. You can call it over matched, I will just call them at-bats. Coco or Lugo or WMP or Ortiz or Drew or Varitek could have done the EXACT SAME THING and you wouldn't bat an eye.

 

The idea that guys need some long adjustment period every time they come into the majors is bunk. Guys DESERVE a long adjustment period, in the sense that the fans shouldn't get on them if they are slow, but the idea that a guy necessarily has to go through one and his playing on the team would therefore be detremental to the success of the team is speculative at best.

 

 

Ellsbury has an OPS of .826 in the minors. Ichiro has his in the majors.

 

So? The point is that people say Ellsbury doesn't have much power and therefore can't be a superstar. I say that we measure power with SLG, and Ellsbury has had the same SLG as Ichiro has. If we acknowledge that Ichiro has been an extremely effective superstar despite not having power, and if we acknowledge that it is likely that Ellsbury will continue his career SLG avg when he's in the bigs, then it seems realistic to think of Ellsbury as an extremely effective superstar. The lack of power doesn't seem to preclude other such players.

 

 

Again, let's slow down with the comparisons until he gets more than three games of playing time.

 

I agree. But when people are saying that his lack of power will not only keep him from being a superstar, but also that it will keep him from even matching Damon's value, I happily point to other players who produce with their non-power tools.

[SCM33]

That sounds optimistic.

 

I look at him and you know who I see? Carlos Beltran. They look similar and their batting stances are very similar. I don't know where the hell you got Kaplar from. That's not a good comparison at all.

 

I kinda agree to a certain extent. Batting stances I would say a mix between Beltran and Damon.

 

When its all said and done I think he will be between mid teens to low 20's power wise with MAYBE an outbreak of 25 jacks. I think that could be stretching it very much though. I think he will be very similar to Damons power numbers. The only major difference between comparing the two is that Damons power came earlier. He hit 16 HR's and hit .343 at the age of 21 in AA while Ellsbury was hitting .308 and on pace to hit maybe 7-8 HR's at the age of 22.

 

I also dont understand the Gabe Kapler comparison. When talking about hitting mechanics, Kapler was flat out ugly. He was late on everything, slashed and poked the ball the other way and had absolutely zero pop in his bat. It looked like he was swinging at a hardball with a wiffleball bat, which is embarrassing considering he could bench press cement trucks. Ellsbury has a smooth fluid stroke, but he is just a little overmatched which makes it look a little worse than it actually is. It will develop along with all the other aspects of his game.

[example1]

Completely agree with you on all fronts. Those were the points I was trying to make' date=' until I realized everything I said would just be jumped all over. I dont blame people for being excited about the kid......but I really dont think that anyone would disagree with the fact that he has looked a little overmatched, and he didnt tear the cover off the ball at AAA. The kid looks like hes going to be a stud, but after 3 games and a little over 10 ABs lets not go too crazy.[/quote']

 

Try doing a simple random sample of the last 10 ABs of 100 MLB hitters. In terms of looking overmatched I bet Ellsbury's sample falls squarely in the middle of that group of 100. Just for fun, a random player from last series:

 

Brad Wilkerson, last 11 ABs (3 games):

2 for 11, 2 R, 0 BB, 1 HR, 3 RBI, 4 K

 

10 ABs isn't enough of a sample size to say he's going to be an all-star, and it isn't enough of a sample size to say he looks overmatched.

 

 

I'm honestly not that passionate about Ellsbury, I'm passionate about people not just making assumptions about what they see with their own eyes. The reason Pedroia ended up being a good player is that he WAS a good player when everyone was calling him out. A career-full of statistics attests to that.

 

I actually like Crisp quite a bit. I just don't think it would be blasphemy if Ellsbury ended up playing a significant amount of baseball for the Sox this season. He's a 23 year old who has been the best athelete at every level he has played, not some emotionally fragile 18 year old kid. If he's going to be scoring a run every other game and stealing 65 bases a year, while getting on at a .390 clip I just think it should be with the team that is going for a World Series, all things being equal. I think it is foolish to preclude it based on 10 ABs where he appeared overmatched to some, despite not striking out and getting on at a .417 clip (5 out of 12 times).

[example1]

I kinda agree to a certain extent. Batting stances I would say a mix between Beltran and Damon.

 

When its all said and done I think he will be between mid teens to low 20's power wise with MAYBE an outbreak of 25 jacks. I think that could be stretching it very much though. I think he will be very similar to Damons power numbers. The only major difference between comparing the two is that Damons power came earlier. He hit 16 HR's and hit .343 at the age of 21 in AA while Ellsbury was hitting .308 and on pace to hit maybe 7-8 HR's at the age of 22.

 

I also dont understand the Gabe Kapler comparison. When talking about hitting mechanics, Kapler was flat out ugly. He was late on everything, slashed and poked the ball the other way and had absolutely zero pop in his bat. It looked like he was swinging at a hardball with a wiffleball bat, which is embarrassing considering he could bench press cement trucks. Ellsbury has a smooth fluid stroke, but he is just a little overmatched which makes it look a little worse than it actually is. It will develop along with all the other aspects of his game.

 

I just don't care how many home runs he hits. Maybe he will develop more power when he is less concerned about getting on base, or maybe Damon was on 'roids. Who the hell knows? :dunno:

 

While HRs are nice a double or triple contribute something to the offense as well. It is nearly impossible to find a CF who hits for power, has a great glove and gets on base when not hitting for power. Ellsbury may not have the power. But that doesn't reduce his ability to be valuable and certainly has nothing to do with whether he is ready for the MLB.

[iSeenHippos]

Ellsbury is just getting a taste of the bigs. He has great spped and good defense. The playing time now is going to help him tremendously once rosters expand near the end of the season.

[Mr Crunchy]

i heard he scored from 2nd on a wild pitch this morning

that speaks volumes

if lugo could perform at all and crisp can get some abs the 3 of them would put a s*** load of pressure on any defense

problem is ells is taking crisps abs

 

so far so good outside 1 real ugly K

[example1]

i heard he scored from 2nd on a wild pitch this morning

that speaks volumes

if lugo could perform at all and crisp can get some abs the 3 of them would put a s*** load of pressure on any defense

problem is ells is taking crisps abs

 

so far so good outside 1 real ugly K

 

Ellsbury didn't strike out yet.

[BSN07]

Ya the play that he scored from 2nd was impressive. The catcher for Texas, said Ichiro doesn't score on that play and probably no other player in the league does either but maybe Crawford and that is saying something. Hes a great talent and I look forward to seeing him roaming CF in the future.

 

Hes pretty young so there is still def time for his body to mature and he may gain some pop after a couple seasons in a Major League weight fitness program. I see him topping out as a 20 HR guy unless he really fills out which is a possibility. With his speed I think hes more of a comparable to Carl Crawford then Beltran or Damon. Beltran has way more pop in his bat then either Damon or Ellsbury. Crawford is a 20-25 hr guy that gets alot od doubles,triples and stolen bases. This is what I see Ellsbury bringing to the club more then power numbers.

[example1]

So... 2-out, 2-on double today for an RBI, against a slider from a guy who had just thrown a 98 mph fastball.

 

He sure looks overmatched to me.

[riverside sluggers]

So... 2-out, 2-on double today for an RBI, against a slider from a guy who had just thrown a 98 mph fastball.

 

He sure looks overmatched to me.

 

Haha good one

 

God this kid is making an immediate impact right out of the gate. Unfortunately what is best for him is to go down to triple A once Crisp shows that he is at 100%. That way he'll get playing time every day. I heard on weei that the Sox might make this move over the all-star break, calling up Craig Breslow or Travis Hughes

[example1]

Haha good one

 

God this kid is making an immediate impact right out of the gate. Unfortunately what is best for him is to go down to triple A once Crisp shows that he is at 100%. That way he'll get playing time every day. I heard on weei that the Sox might make this move over the all-star break, calling up Craig Breslow on Travis Hughes

 

I'm fine with that. They are doing that because they don't have a spot for Ellsbury, NOT because they feel he is overmatched at the MLB level or that he can't compete.

[riverside sluggers]

No doubt thats the case

[SCM33]

So... 2-out, 2-on double today for an RBI, against a slider from a guy who had just thrown a 98 mph fastball.

 

He sure looks overmatched to me.

 

Nobody said he wasnt talented. If he keeps hitting like this nobody could argue against keeping him up and playing a significant role. I just dont want the kid to get shellshocked thats all. I never said he wasnt talented enough. I dont want him to walk back to the dugout with his head down either thinking to himself, "holy s*** this is tough, maybe I am not ready". Believe me, I want him to do well just as much as you do.

[a700hitter]

Nobody said he wasnt talented. If he keeps hitting like this nobody could argue against keeping him up and playing a significant role. I just dont want the kid to get shellshocked thats all. I never said he wasnt talented enough. I dont want him to walk back to the dugout with his head down either thinking to himself' date=' "holy s*** this is tough, maybe I am not ready". Believe me, I want him to do well just as much as you do.[/quote']

With some kids, this might be worry, but this kid is not one bit intimidated.

[BSN07]

With some kids' date=' this might be worry, but this kid is not one bit intimidated.[/quote']

 

I got to agree on this. If the kid was intimidated or shy or iffy or anything like that, theres no way he tries to score from 2nd on a pass ball. He has confidence and is playing with it...:thumbsup:

[BoSox21]

I like the fact that even if Ellsbury goes back down to AAA, Crisp knows there's someone breathing down his neck, a kid who's proving he can hang in the majors.

[jacksonianmarch]

I like Ellsbury. Seems like a nice kid who plays hard. If he can keep this up, then why even bother with Cocout? This is a pennant race, right? Ride the hot horse till he bucks.

[BoSox21]

cause by all accounts, Coco is on fire right now. so like you said, ride the hot horse till he bucks

[ORS]

I agree, but Crisp is the horse right now.

 

June/July: .327/.363/.474 in 104 PA.

[jacksonianmarch]

I see, my bad. I havent seen a baseball game in a week. Crazy schedule.

[example1]

I see' date=' my bad. I havent seen a baseball game in a week. Crazy schedule.[/quote']

 

I bet you would have found a way to watch a game in the past week if your team didn't completely suck jacksonianmarch, and frankly, i can't blame you for staying away.

[jacksonianmarch]

I bet you would have found a way to watch a game in the past week if your team didn't completely suck jacksonianmarch' date=' and frankly, i can't blame you for staying away.[/quote']

 

I've been working noon to 11 or 12 for the past week and pulled a 15 hour day yesterday. And my day is jammed. So no, I dont have that ability. I have a hard enough time finding a minute to eat.