Mark Buehrle?

[TheKilo]

He's a FA after this year. Do you think the struggling White Sox would be willing to part with Mark Buehrle?

 

I really think the Sox are going to make a run for this guy. The White Sox need some offense, so I don't know who the Sox could package to try to get him.

 

The question is, would Buehrle be a good fit here? Could we realistically see Buehrle in a Red Sox uni by the end of the year?

[schillingouttheks]

I would like to rent Buehrle if the price is right. I worry about lefties at Fenway but Buehrle's interesting.

 

Kenny Williams on PTI earlier today said that if his team was falling out of contention at the trade deadline he'd be willing to move some of his veterans if it came down to that. I think it's realistic, we're just going to have to hope that the White Sox continue to suck throughout the year. If not, forget about it.

[Cocos Disciples]

It's definitely a possibilty. The White Sox centerfielder right now is Luis Terrero, and it is normally Darin Erstad (hurt). Both suck, despite Terrero's solid performance in 53 at bats. I think they would definitely be open to acquiring either Coco Crisp or Wily Mo Pena to fill in that slot.

[Rdsxmbnt]

I wouldnt give up a Buchholz/Bowden/Lester/Ellsbury/Anderson type prospect for him, if they were interested in WMP+ others then I'd be on board. He was almost traded for Coco last year (though Coco wouldnt nearly be enough now) so I suppose the Red Sox do have interest in him as a pitcher.

[ksushi]

Agreed, Buch/Lester/Anderson especially can't be moved for a one year guy and probably not for anything out there even if they are under contract through '08 and beyond. Especially not Bucholz. If Buch gets traded I'll eat my dog on youtube, it won't happen.

 

I would trade Ellsbury for Buehrle though. Buehrle is a very solid pitcher, he can give you a good amount of innings and it will be quality too. Ellsbury represents an unknown, an unknown that could very good, but also is an easily acquired commodity and this would be the right time to deal him with Jones,Suzuki, Rowand and Hunter hitting free agency assuming Coco really is what he has been so far this year, and doesn't improve because with the defense he plays he might be the best case scenario if he finds his way at the plate.

[example1]

I don't think it is unreasonable to think the White Sox would deal Buehrle for Wily Mo Pena. With Jermaine Dye moving next year, Pena's salary and age, I could see this as a decent move for both teams.

 

I don't actually like Buehrle that much for the Sox, but having him as a 4 or 5 (or 3 or 4 depending on if Schilling makes it or not) wouldn't hurt.

 

Before I get attacked for saying this, please know that I value WMP pretty highly (given what we've seen from him--or haven't seen from him, that is). I think he still has 25+ HR potential for someone.

[example1]

Agreed' date=' Buch/Lester/Anderson especially can't be moved for a one year guy and probably not for anything out there even if they are under contract through '08 and beyond. Especially not Bucholz. If Buch gets traded I'll eat my dog on youtube, it won't happen. [/quote']

 

Nice. I totally agree. He is not going anywhere.

 

I would trade Ellsbury for Buehrle though. Buehrle is a very solid pitcher, he can give you a good amount of innings and it will be quality too. Ellsbury represents an unknown, an unknown that could very good, but also is an easily acquired commodity and this would be the right time to deal him with Jones,Suzuki, Rowand and Hunter hitting free agency assuming Coco really is what he has been so far this year, and doesn't improve because with the defense he plays he might be the best case scenario if he finds his way at the plate.

 

I wouldn't trade Ellsbury for Buehrle. Do you really think he's a replaceable commodity? I would say that other than Damon this team hasn't had a bona fide leadoff hitter/centerfielder in a long time. They tried to get Crisp to do that job and it didn't work. I think Ellsbury can do as well as Crisp as a rookie, and will only improve from there.

[CrespoBlows]

I don't think it is unreasonable to think the White Sox would deal Buehrle for Wily Mo Pena. With Jermaine Dye moving next year, Pena's salary and age, I could see this as a decent move for both teams.

 

I don't actually like Buehrle that much for the Sox, but having him as a 4 or 5 (or 3 or 4 depending on if Schilling makes it or not) wouldn't hurt.

 

Before I get attacked for saying this, please know that I value WMP pretty highly (given what we've seen from him--or haven't seen from him, that is). I think he still has 25+ HR potential for someone.

 

I'd pull the trigger on that deal very quickly, but I think the White Sox are going to want a little more than just Wily Mo Pena.

[BSN07]

WMP/Crisp + 1 decent prospect and possibly 1 low level prospect, for a half season rental would be more then fair.

 

I'd like them to get Buherle and then sign him for a few years if he does well. He shouldn't be anymore expensive the Schilling would be.

 

08 rotation would look like this:

1. Beckett

2. Matsuzaka

3. Buehrle

4. Lester

5. FA/Bucholz

 

Thats a rotation I wouldn't mind seeing at all. I think Buerhle might sign for 4 yrs 48-55M which isn't bad for a pitcher of his ability.

[ksushi]

I think we have a bona fide leadoff guy in Youkilis. I'm of the school that batting order should be determined by descending order of on-base percentage. We also have our center fielder. I trust 100% of everything peter gammons says, and he says Crisp never fully healed after last years finger injury until the off-season, so I'm willing to give him a pass. But, this year so far has been tough, but he has shown signs of coming around. Especially lately, now he has the nation behind him, my best case scenario is probably using Ellsbury's trade value when Crisp shows he can be our CF of the future.

[MDF3530]

I think that my White Sox are going to ride out the season with him and try to re-sign him in the offseason (Kenny & Reinsdorf don't like to sign anyone to extensions during the season). They talked to his agent last offseason and tried to get an extension done then. The major sticking point was not cash, but length. Reinsdorf doesn't like to sign pitchers to 4- or 5-year deals because of the probablility of injury or the pitcher mailing it in the last year or two. Buehrle, through his agent, has promised the White Sox that he'll give them the opportunity to match whatever offers he receives. From what I've heard, Mark is a man of his word.

 

My prediction is that next year, he'll be with one of two teams situated in towns along Interstate 55: the White Sox or St. Louis. The Cardinals are dying for pitching help, they have the cash and Mark grew up a fan of them.

[schillingouttheks]

I think the Cardinals will end up signing Curt Schilling.

[example1]

I think we have a bona fide leadoff guy in Youkilis. I'm of the school that batting order should be determined by descending order of on-base percentage. We also have our center fielder. I trust 100% of everything peter gammons says' date=' and he says Crisp never fully healed after last years finger injury until the off-season, so I'm willing to give him a pass. But, this year so far has been tough, but he has shown signs of coming around. Especially lately, now he has the nation behind him, my best case scenario is probably using Ellsbury's trade value when Crisp shows he can be our CF of the future.[/quote']

 

One thing I haven't seen broken down is how much of a difference speed makes in the equation. Not giving up outs is seen as the best way of scoring runs and youkilis avoids making outs very well.

 

But what is the difference in run production between a guy with a .415 OBP (say, Youkilis) and a guy with .385 OBP (say, Ellsbury). If Ellsbury can steal bases and score from first on a double, and score from second on ALL singles, then when it comes to overall run production is there proof that Youkilis would be more valuable? I'm just curious.

 

With the players the sox are likely to have hitting 2nd in the future (Youkilis and Pedroia) don't you think there are a lot of run-scoring doubles and runs scored from a guy with the speed of Ellsbury leading off?

 

OBP is an important trait in determining whether a hitter will score a run. But it has nothing to do with whether that hitter then scores once they are on first base, does it?

 

Ellsbury is a leadoff hitter. Youkilis is an excellent option for a leadoff hitter, but it is unnecessary if ellsbury is as good as he seems.

[CrespoBlows]

One thing I haven't seen broken down is how much of a difference speed makes in the equation. Not giving up outs is seen as the best way of scoring runs and youkilis avoids making outs very well.

 

But what is the difference in run production between a guy with a .415 OBP (say, Youkilis) and a guy with .385 OBP (say, Ellsbury). If Ellsbury can steal bases and score from first on a double, and score from second on ALL singles, then when it comes to overall run production is there proof that Youkilis would be more valuable? I'm just curious.

 

With the players the sox are likely to have hitting 2nd in the future (Youkilis and Pedroia) don't you think there are a lot of run-scoring doubles and runs scored from a guy with the speed of Ellsbury leading off?

 

OBP is an important trait in determining whether a hitter will score a run. But it has nothing to do with whether that hitter then scores once they are on first base, does it?

 

Ellsbury is a leadoff hitter. Youkilis is an excellent option for a leadoff hitter, but it is unnecessary if ellsbury is as good as he seems.

 

If Ellsbury continues to steal at a 86% success rate, he'd probably add about 5 to 6 runs to the Red Sox offense.

 

The average baserunner will attempt an extra base 46.2 % of the time, and will usually succeed 91.6% of the time. To compare, Rod Carew in 1977, attempted to take an extra base 74.3% of the time, and made it 98.2% of the time.

 

In all, he added 9.3 runs due to his legs, which is short of one win. (10 runs = 1 win) That's considered historic.

 

If you use Ellsbury's career number of 76.3% success rate. He's likely not going to add much with his base running. He may even hurt the Red Sox, because he's got a lot of great hitters batting behind him.

[example1]

I guess the question is how those 5 to 6 runs compares to the number of runs from Youkilis's extra .040 in OBP.

[CrespoBlows]

I guess the question is how those 5 to 6 runs compares to the number of runs from Youkilis's extra .040 in OBP.

 

You have to factor in Youkilis' slugging, as well.

 

A team will generally score the most runs if they bat their OBP guys in descending order. Guys who can hit for power, and avoid outs, should be given the most plate appearances.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Im definetly in favor of leading Ellsbury off next year and Youk second. Ellsbury to begin with has great plate discipline and could very well see him eventually putting up a .300/.380/.420 line (not necessarily in his rookie year though) and potentially steal 40-50 bases. Having two on base guys in front of Ortiz and Manny will score a lot of runs obviously. I like Youk in the 2nd spot since he has some power and anything hit in a gap or a single with Ellsbury on base will score him with his speed. Id set the lineup up like next year:

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Youkillis 3B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Ramirez LF

5. Teixeira 1B

6. Drew RF

7. Tek C

8. Lugo SS

9. Pedroia 2B

[CrespoBlows]

Im definetly in favor of leading Ellsbury off next year and Youk second. Ellsbury to begin with has great plate discipline and could very well see him eventually putting up a .300/.380/.420 line (not necessarily in his rookie year though) and potentially steal 40-50 bases. Having two on base guys in front of Ortiz and Manny will score a lot of runs obviously. I like Youk in the 2nd spot since he has some power and anything hit in a gap or a single with Ellsbury on base will score him with his speed. Id set the lineup up like next year:

1. Ellsbury CF

2. Youkillis 3B

3. Ortiz DH

4. Ramirez LF

5. Teixeira 1B

6. Drew RF

7. Tek C

8. Lugo SS

9. Pedroia 2B

 

This, I agree with.

 

I'd rather go with this lineup, however.

 

1. Ellsbury, CF

2. Youkills, 1B

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ortiz, DH

5. Ramirez, LF

6. Drew, RF

7. Pedroia, 2B

8. Varitek, C

9. Lugo, SS

[example1]

You have to factor in Youkilis' slugging, as well.

 

A team will generally score the most runs if they bat their OBP guys in descending order. Guys who can hit for power, and avoid outs, should be given the most plate appearances.

 

Statistical norms are based on the average team. Any team that Ellsbury would be hitting in front of would undoubtedly do more of the good things statistically than the average team. So, there will be more walks behind him (Pedroia and Youkilis), better power behind those walks (Ortiz, Ramirez) and better power behind those walks (Drew, Lowell, Varitek) than the average. In other words, more will happen when the runner is on base than with the average team. This is especially true if Youkilis is one of the guys doing the hitting. I would much rather have Youkilis trying to drive Ellsbury in than Ellsbury trying to drive Youkilis in.

 

Despite their reliance on sabermetric principals I don't think the Sox are done looking for a high OBP, high speed guy to lead off. I don't think it is anti-sabermetric, it is just the best of both worlds. I don't think we're talking about leading off with juan pierre or scott podsednik here, and if that's what Ellsbury becomes then Youkilis is certainly the better option.

[Rdsxmbnt]

This, I agree with.

 

I'd rather go with this lineup, however.

 

1. Ellsbury, CF

2. Youkills, 1B

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ortiz, DH

5. Ramirez, LF

6. Drew, RF

7. Pedroia, 2B

8. Varitek, C

9. Lugo, SS

 

Works also

 

I like the idea of moving Pedroia up to #7 and bump Tek and Lugo down a spot each also.

[example1]

This, I agree with.

 

I'd rather go with this lineup, however.

 

1. Ellsbury, CF

2. Youkills, 1B

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ortiz, DH

5. Ramirez, LF

6. Drew, RF

7. Pedroia, 2B

8. Varitek, C

9. Lugo, SS

 

Don't you think that if A-Rod leaves NY he'll be leaving as a SS? And getting paid as a SS?

[CrespoBlows]

Statistical norms are based on the average team. Any team that Ellsbury would be hitting in front of would undoubtedly do more of the good things statistically than the average team. So' date=' there will be more walks behind him (Pedroia and Youkilis), better power behind those walks (Ortiz, Ramirez) and better power behind those walks (Drew, Lowell, Varitek) than the average. In other words, more will happen when the runner is on base than with the average team. This is especially true if Youkilis is one of the guys doing the hitting. I would much rather have Youkilis trying to drive Ellsbury in than Ellsbury trying to drive Youkilis in. [/quote']

 

How about Pedroia trying to drive Youkilis in?

 

1. Youkilis, 1B

2. Pedroia, 2B

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ortiz, DH

5. Ramirez, LF

6. Drew, RF

7. Varitek, C

8. Ellsbury, CF

9. Lugo, SS

 

?????

 

You could arrange this lineup, in so many different ways, and it would still be an ownage machine.

[schillingouttheks]

Or this:

 

Ellsbury, CF

Youkilis, 3B

Rodriguez, SS

Ortiz, DH

Ramirez, LF

Texeira, 1B

Drew, RF

Varitek, C

Pedroia, 2B

 

I can wish. And for the record, I realize that this is pretty unrealistic. EDIT: VERY unrealistic.

 

If you have an opportunity for this lineup, you find somewhere else for Lugo, lol.

[CrespoBlows]

Don't you think that if A-Rod leaves NY he'll be leaving as a SS? And getting paid as a SS?

 

I don't know if he can play SS, anymore. He's been below average at 3B in his tenure with the Yankees, which by all accounts is probably the easier position to play.

[example1]

How about Pedroia trying to drive Youkilis in?

 

1. Youkilis, 1B

2. Pedroia, 2B

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ortiz, DH

5. Ramirez, LF

6. Drew, RF

7. Varitek, C

8. Ellsbury, CF

9. Lugo, SS

 

?????

 

You could arrange this lineup, in so many different ways, and it would still be an ownage machine.

 

 

As soon as the player is on base I want it to be Ellsbury. He will be the best baserunner on the team by far, and probably one of the best in the league when he's through. He should be able to get on base at a .380 clip every year once he gets going and he should be one of the most exciting players in baseball once he's on and runs will be a product of it.

 

Imagine a pitcher having to try to hold Ellsbury on with Youkilis or Ortiz at the dish in a 1 run game!

[BSN07]

Lets not forget that Youk has stated recently, he not comfortable in the lead off spot.

[ksushi]

I don't know if he can play SS' date=' anymore. He's been below average at 3B in his tenure with the Yankees, which by all accounts is probably the easier position to play.[/quote']

 

Not at all. Have you ever played either position at a competitive level? They take two entirely different skill sets. One is purely a reflex position where balls are smoked at you every game, the other position runs the infield and is set back more. The balls aren't hit as hard, but its probably the most crucial position on the infield. A-rod plays third like a shortstop, thats why he sucks at it. Things aren't black and white, one position isn't easier to play than another, they're all hard, but require different approaches.

[CrespoBlows]

Not at all. Have you ever played either position at a competitive level? They take two entirely different skill sets. One is purely a reflex position where balls are smoked at you every game' date=' the other position runs the infield and is set back more. The balls aren't hit as hard, but its probably the most crucial position on the infield. A-rod plays third like a shortstop, thats why he sucks at it. Things aren't black and white, one position isn't easier to play than another, they're all hard, but require different approaches.[/quote']

 

I was a second baseman. I don't have the arm for 3B or SS.

 

You need more range to cover ground as a shortstop. Why do you think Ripken was moved away from SS?

 

From all accounts, Rodriguez doesn't have the range anymore to move back to shortstop, which would be the greatest concern.

 

He's playing solid defense at 3B this year, why mess with that?

[example1]

Not at all. Have you ever played either position at a competitive level? They take two entirely different skill sets. One is purely a reflex position where balls are smoked at you every game' date=' the other position runs the infield and is set back more. The balls aren't hit as hard, but its probably the most crucial position on the infield. A-rod plays third like a shortstop, thats why he sucks at it. Things aren't black and white, one position isn't easier to play than another, they're all hard, but require different approaches.[/quote']

 

They do take entirely different skill sets. I was an all state 3B in HS (small state, not good enough to play beyond Div III, which wasn't worth the time and money it takes to go to college, yada yada... long story).

 

Anyway, I always felt that 3B was all about the arm and the ability to put your body in front of balls that people absolutely TURNED on. I don't think that the balls were necessarily hit harder to 3B than SS, but the distance is greater and the reaction time is--obviously--longer. Given that reaction time athleticism becomes a key asset at SS, as does the arm.

 

I don't know about A-Rod's current ability to play SS. I do know that he won a Gold Glove the year before he became a Yankee, and I see no reason to believe he has deteriorated any more quickly than Jeter except for the reps that Jeter has had at SS since. A team like the Cubs or Angels would love to have A-Rod at SS. I would demand more money and have a higher value as a SS.

[example1]

How about Pedroia trying to drive Youkilis in?

 

1. Youkilis, 1B

2. Pedroia, 2B

3. Rodriguez, 3B

4. Ortiz, DH

5. Ramirez, LF

6. Drew, RF

7. Varitek, C

8. Ellsbury, CF

9. Lugo, SS

 

?????

 

You could arrange this lineup, in so many different ways, and it would still be an ownage machine.

 

Jose Reyes had a career .338 OBP in 5 minor league seasons. This season he has a .399 OBP, easily a career high (last year he had a GREAT season, with a .354 OBP). In all those minor league seasons he never ONCE had a season or stint with a minor league team with an OBP above .359 (as a 17 year old in the rookie-league).

 

While "struggling" at AAA, Ellsbury has a .362 OBP; and between AA and AAA he has a .408 OBP.

 

I think people here are knowingly being conservative about his speed. This kid has amazing speed. Not 40 SB territory, but 60-70 SB territory.

 

In 162 games, at the rate he stole bases in A, AA, and AAA, Ellsbury would have had 62, 84 and 73 stolen-bases respectively. The catchers will get better, but not THAT much better; especially given that Ellsbury is bound to become a better baserunner with experience.

 

I leadoff with a guy like that. The desire to put youkilis at the top even if Ellsbury has a .380 OBP seems like a cute sabermetric move, but I don't think the Sox would do it.