Minor league half way point top 30 sox prospects

[scaffolds]

With the DSL having started and the start of the short seasons teams on Tuesday the 19 its time for the half way point top Sox 30 minor league prospects.

 

This list is composed on tools, projection, ceiling, age and production. Jon Lester and Manny DelCarmen has had too much MLB time to be on this list.

 

Top 30:

 

1- Jacoby Ellsbury CF

2- Clay Buchholz RHP

3- Mike Bowden RHP

4- Brandon Moss RF

5- Lars Anderson 1B

6- Craig Hansen RHP

7- Chih-Hsien Chiang 2B

8- Edgar Martinez RHP

9- Aaron Bates 1B

10 Devern Hansack RHP

11 Bryson Cox RHP

12 David Murphy OF

13 Jed Lowrie As a second baseman

14 Jason Place CF

15 Manuel Arrambaris 3B

16 Justin Masterson RHP

17 Engel Beltre CF

18 Kris Johnson LHP

19 Reid Engel CF

20 Daniel Bard RHP

21 George Kottaras C

22 Josh Riddick CF

23 Oscar Tejada SS

24 Mark Wagner C

25 Tony Granadillo 2B

26 Felix Doubront LHP

27 Che-Hauang Lin CF

28 Dustin Richardson LHP (as a reliever)

29 Zachary Daeges LF

30 Kason Gabbard LHP

 

2007 draft pick who haven't signed aren't elegible for this list

[AZBlue]

Scaffolds, I have been wondering if George Kottaras has will turn his offensive and defensive game around and turn out to be a major league catcher. What have you seen and heard?

 

Also, I am not convinced that David Murphy is going to be more than a fourth outfielder in the majors. I assume that there are some baseball people who think he has a higher ceiling than I do. When I ask myself if I would trade Murphy even up for any position player on your list from 13-30, I think that I would make that trade.

[jacksonianmarch]

Scaffolds, I have been wondering if George Kottaras has will turn his offensive and defensive game around and turn out to be a major league catcher. What have you seen and heard?

 

Also, I am not convinced that David Murphy is going to be more than a fourth outfielder in the majors. I assume that there are some baseball people who think he has a higher ceiling than I do. When I ask myself if I would trade Murphy even up for any position player on your list from 13-30, I think that I would make that trade.

 

Everyone who knew anything about the minors knew that Kottaras was overhyped in that SD system since their system was full of s*** and crap from stem to stern. Also, if I remember correctly, Kottaras was a bit old for the league when he dominated and is now showing his ineptitude on the higher level. He projected as a fringe major leaguer, mostly a backup. I think his s***** play of late even makes that a stretch. We'll see. He has a long way to go.

[scaffolds]

AZblue; As a hitter I am a bit more concern about Murphy than Kottaras, every time that I have seen him play it seems like he has a dead bat, no pop what so ever. Kottaras needs to play more than the Sox brass seems to have him playing, there isn't a question that he needs to go back to AAA in 2008 and I agree with Jackson that Kottaras doesn't project as a regular catcher in the ML, but he could be a decent back up.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Pretty good list.

 

Couple questions for you:

1. Why Ellsbury over Buchholz?

2. Chiang is hitting at each stage so far, though why him so high over someone like Jed Lowrie?

3. Manuel Arrambaris so high, why?

4. No Caleb Clay at all on the list?

[scaffolds]

Pretty good list.

 

Couple questions for you:

1. Why Ellsbury over Buchholz?

2. Chiang is hitting at each stage so far, though why him so high over someone like Jed Lowrie?

3. Manuel Arrambaris so high, why?

4. No Caleb Clay at all on the list?

 

1- Its very close between Ellsbury and Buchholz at the end of the season it may be all away around, but at this time Ellsburymay be futher in his developement.

 

2- Chiang its the best pure hitter in the system along with the best hitting mechanics. Chiang not only has a higher ceiling thn Lowrie, but its a lot better prospect.

 

3- Arrambaris is only behind Chiang as a pure hitter in the system, his power hasn't developed as quickly as expected, when it does should be ranked higher.

 

4- The next five should be; 31- Caleb Clay RHP

32- Argenis Diaz SS

33- Bubba Bell OF

34- Jon Still (As a first baseman)

35- David Pauley RHP

[scaffolds]

For those who have Email me and wanted find out about the 36-50 on the list.

 

The rest;

 

36- Ryan Kalish CF

37- Jose Capellan LHP

38- Mike Jones 1B

39- Jon Egan C

40- Christian Lara SS

41- Hunter Jones LHP

42- Miguel Socolovitch RHP

43- Tyler Weeden C

44- Luis Sumoza RF

45- Kevin Guyette RHP

46- Chad Spann 3B

47- Jose Alvarez LHP

48- Jeff Natale 2B

49- Carlos Fernandez OF

50- Chris Jones RHP

[jacksonianmarch]

hey scaff. What do you think about the topheavy nature of the sox pitching farm (Buchholz, Bowden vs the field). To this point, a lot of the highly touted later round picks of the last few yrs (Masterson, Bard and Johnson especially) have regressed. Is this more of a breakdown and buildup mechanical issue or is this an overevaluation of their talent?

[ORS]

Masterson, Bard, and Johnson have all made improvements from their start to this season. It's kind of hard to call it a regression when one of them pitched zero professional innings last year and the other two only played short season A ball. Essentially, there is no baseline to regress from. Let the season finish and see where they are at the end.

[Rdsxmbnt]

Im sure pitching for Lancaster doesnt help

[scaffolds]

The Sox decision to start the season in Lancaster for Bard, Masterson and Johnson was a not a good decision they weren't ready for the California league. Masterson and Johnson has pitched a bit better in Lancaster lately, but while Bard also has pitched also a bit better its has been in Greenville.

[RobZombie]

In general I like Scaffold's list. But you HAVE to give some credit to guys who are putting up strong numbers especially if they are doing it in AA or above. That's where I think a guy like Jed Lowrie gets underrated. Tearing the cover off the ball in AA puts you above a guy who's not doing that well in low A, no matter their differing hitting mechanics. Lowrie HAS to be considered a better prospect than Chi right now. You have to rank Masterson higher too, because he has relatively outperformed guys like Chi and Place.

 

A question was asked of you before Scaffolds as to why we should take you seriously, when you have touted players that performed poorly while dissed players that have performed well and recommended that they be thrown away.

 

I understand that you think it is unfair that it seems that if the choice is between a Latin player performing badly and a Aussie performing badly that the Aussie gets the nod.

 

But you still have to answer for touting so many players that have turned out badly while advising that the Red Sox throw away players who have gone on to become productive major leaguers.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

38- Mike Jones 1B

 

Who?

[scaffolds]

Who?

 

If you go to the lowell roster you will know Mike Jones is.

[scaffolds]

In general I like Scaffold's list. But you HAVE to give some credit to guys who are putting up strong numbers especially if they are doing it in AA or above. That's where I think a guy like Jed Lowrie gets underrated. Tearing the cover off the ball in AA puts you above a guy who's not doing that well in low A, no matter their differing hitting mechanics. Lowrie HAS to be considered a better prospect than Chi right now. You have to rank Masterson higher too, because he has relatively outperformed guys like Chi and Place.

 

A question was asked of you before Scaffolds as to why we should take you seriously, when you have touted players that performed poorly while dissed players that have performed well and recommended that they be thrown away.

 

I understand that you think it is unfair that it seems that if the choice is between a Latin player performing badly and a Aussie performing badly that the Aussie gets the nod.

 

But you still have to answer for touting so many players that have turned out badly while advising that the Red Sox throw away players who have gone on to become productive major leaguers.

 

 

First of all when i make a post or a list like the one above I make based on based on my experience and having talk to other people in the industry. A list like the top prospects on the system isn't based just on the production of the player, but on tools, ceiling, projection, age and production, based on this neither does Lowrie nor Masterson ranked higher than Place or Chiang. This list was made at the end of the first half of the minor league season if the list would had been made today both players would had been ranked a bit higher.

 

The question that was asked, was asked by someone with personal interest in some particular players and ofcourse had some bias in it, but I did answer the question, but since you brought the subject again, what player or players that have performed so well have i dissed out like you have called?

 

The Red Sox player development haven't handle well the development of Latin players in different matters and have been very impatient with them and in most cases haven't given them a fair opportunity. Those players that you are talking about all of them has had more talent that some of the players that has been kept at the same position, except that they haven't been work on them. A couple examples of what I am talking about, right now there isn't any communication with the Latin hitters in the GCL squad there isn't a coach on the hitting side that can speak the same language that those latin players speak and aren't fluent in English, in the pitching side isn't as bad as the pitching coach can speak Spanish fairly well. Another Example is a Luis Soto, A player who had never had played the outfield until the Sox switched him a couple years ago, I don't believe that the Sox have worked hard enough in his development as an outfielder and because of it he has his short comings in the outfield which has translated to his hitting and them there's the Miguel Socolovich example and a lot other ones.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

If you go to the lowell roster you will know Mike Jones is.

 

lol it was a joke

 

You think that highly of Hansack? I think I would definitely move him down some with Lowrie, Masterson and Cox at least being above him.

[scaffolds]

Potentially Cox should be ranked ahead of Hansack, but there's too many questions on Lowrie or Masterson to be ranked ahead of Hansack.

[RobZombie]

Scaffolds-

 

With all due respect. I completely agree that tools and projection should be taken into account when evaluating prospects. But it seems that you dismiss production entirely. Jed Lowrie is currently putting up an OPS that is 150 points higher than Chiang's and has a walk to strikeout ratio that is more than 4X as high. Not to mention that he's doing this two levels higher than Chiang is. Its ludicrous to dismiss this regardless of the hitting mechanics of both players. Once a player gets to the high minors production has got to be paramount. If Jed Lowrie keeps hitting the way he's been hitting, he will have gone a long way towards answering all of the questions about him. How exactly does a guy like him have questions and a guy with a .25 BB/K ratio not have questions?

 

A few years ago you were famously quoted as saying that Kevin Youkilis would soon be passed by Heirberto Guzman and Chad Spann. Fast foward to today, and Spann can't handle AAA, never mind the majors, and Guzman is out of baseball. Meanwhile Youkilis was the first half MVP for the major league team! As recently as last season you said that Spann should be the 3B over Youkilis, and earlier this season you said that Hinske should start to replace Youkilis as 1B. Meanwhile Hinske can barely hit his weight!

 

You also said that Dustin Pedroia was like "Mark Loretta". As it turns out, Pedroia is a much better player than Lorretta both offensively and defensively. You were wrong again.

 

Meanwhile you have championed several players who couldn't even break past AA (Arias, Guzman, Gamble). How can your evaluations be trusted when you are consistantly wrong.

 

In the end, a scout has to be accountable by the accuracy of his evaluations. In your case your record is quite poor over a substantial time period. When asked about this, you ducked the subject, why? You have even been quite snooty about your position in the game, calling into question the baseball knowledge of those who disagreed with you. Why should we listen to the evaluations of someone who has been wrong as often as you have.

 

I appreciate your response.

[SCM33]

Potentially Cox should be ranked ahead of Hansack' date=' but there's too many questions on Lowrie or Masterson to be ranked ahead of Hansack.[/quote']

 

Check out jsingers site:

 

http://www.soxprospects.com

 

according to that site, which I find to be pretty informative, Hansack isnt a top 20, nor should he be cosidering his age.

[RobZombie]

Usually when players are 29 years old they aren't prospects.

 

Yet to every rule there are some exceptions and Hansack maybe one of them. Some guys just figure out how to pitch later than others. Hansack especially happened to live in a country that is not heavilly scouted.

 

You have to like how well he's pitched in AAA this year and that's not easy to do no matter how old you are. He's at least a major league long-man maybe more and if you can do that you are a top 20 prospect.

 

I agree that saying that he's above a guy who's 23 and has a .900 OPS in AA is a bit outrageous, but consider the source.