Time to Change the Batting Order

[schillingouttheks]

You do know that Drew's OBP is about 30ish points above average, right? I don't care how he gets on base. You don't need a good average to get on base. When you have Ortiz and Ramirez hitting behind you, you just need to find a way on. That's exactly what he's been doing despite the poor batting average. This is why using BA as a statistic to back up a point isn't a good method.

[riverside sluggers]

Yeah' date=' Lugo isn't much. I wish Cora would get more playing time.[/quote']

 

Eventually a bench player will be exposed for what he is, if he is played consistently. He is now in a 5 for 32 slump so its a wash saying he should get more playing time than Lugo. Theres also Lugo's contract to consider as it would be sad to see a 4 year/$36 million guy benched for .246 hitter Cora.

 

Lugo has come up big for the Sox in the clutch (good hitter with RISP, game winner against Orioles), offers great spead (on pace for 40+ SB season). Plus he hasnt been that much of a wreck on the field, his glove has been steady

[adam123]

JD Needs to go down in the line-up put in Youk. I am so glad we have Youk instead of helton

[redsoxrules]

JD Needs to go down in the line-up put in Youk. I am so glad we have Youk instead of helton

 

NO he has a good OBP

[TedWilliams101]

If you care about OBP, then

1. Pedroia

2. Youk

should please you. Pedroia: .308AVG, .394OBP,.433SLG. Also, with runners on, a staggering .372AVG, .500OBP, .512SLG, 10RBI. And thats in 43 at-bats. Thats the type of production I like out of my leadoff hitter. Then Youk:.354AVG, .427OBP, .561SLG, and with runners on, .381AVG, .442OBP, .571SLG, 25RBI.

Combined: .331AVG, .411OBP, .497SLG. With men on; .377AVG, .471OBP, .537SLG, 35RBI.

 

 

But the way you would like it:

1. Lugo

2. Drew

Their combined numbers are much weaker:

Lugo: .230AVG, .291OBP, .337SLG. With runners on, .267AVG, .313OBP, .413SLG, 28RBI in 75 at-bats.

Drew: .226AVG, .346OBP, .316SLG. With runners on, .208AVG, .370OBP, .306SLG, 16 RBI in 72 at-bats.

 

Combined: .228AVG, .319OBP, .327SLG. With runners on, .238AVG, .342OBP, .360SLG, 44RBI.

 

Lets review and compare. (Higher stats are in bold)

Pedroia/Youk:

.331AVG, .411OBP, .497SLG. With men on; .377AVG, .471OBP, .537SLG, 35RBI.

Lugo/Drew:

.228AVG, .319OBP, .327SLG. With men on; .238AVG, .342OBP, .360SLG, 44RBI.

 

Looks like your Argument, Schillingouttheks, supports Pedroia/Youk. You were arguing OBP, well Pedroia/Youk combine for an OBP 92 points higher. Thats a big difference.

[redsoxrules]

If you care about OBP, then

1. Pedroia

2. Youk

should please you. Pedroia: .308AVG, .394OBP,.433SLG. Also, with runners on, a staggering .372AVG, .500OBP, .512SLG, 10RBI. And thats in 43 at-bats. Thats the type of production I like out of my leadoff hitter. Then Youk:.354AVG, .427OBP, .561SLG, and with runners on, .381AVG, .442OBP, .571SLG, 25RBI.

Combined: .331AVG, .411OBP, .497SLG. With men on; .377AVG, .471OBP, .537SLG, 35RBI.

 

 

But the way you would like it:

1. Lugo

2. Drew

Their combined numbers are much weaker:

Lugo: .230AVG, .291OBP, .337SLG. With runners on, .267AVG, .313OBP, .413SLG, 28RBI in 75 at-bats.

Drew: .226AVG, .346OBP, .316SLG. With runners on, .208AVG, .370OBP, .306SLG, 16 RBI in 72 at-bats.

 

Combined: .228AVG, .319OBP, .327SLG. With runners on, .238AVG, .342OBP, .360SLG, 44RBI.

 

Lets review and compare. (Higher stats are in bold)

Pedroia/Youk:

.331AVG, .411OBP, .497SLG. With men on; .377AVG, .471OBP, .537SLG, 35RBI.

Lugo/Drew:

.228AVG, .319OBP, .327SLG. With men on; .238AVG, .342OBP, .360SLG, 44RBI.

 

Looks like your Argument, Schillingouttheks, supports Pedroia/Youk. You were arguing OBP, well Pedroia/Youk combine for an OBP 92 points higher. Thats a big difference.

 

 

holy f*** you cant have crisp and lugo batting 8 and 9 its 2 easy outs in a row , you need someone good in the 9 hole wich is pedroia at the moment , and drew 's OBP will be close to 400 before the season end if not higher

[TedWilliams101]

They suck. I don't want them in the top of the order. You put your 2 worst hitters in the bottom of the lineup. What you should be complaining about is that we have 2 struggling guys (not including drew) in our lineup.

[schillingouttheks]

Looks like your Argument' date=' Schillingouttheks, supports Pedroia/Youk. You were arguing OBP, well Pedroia/Youk combine for an OBP 92 points higher. Thats a big difference.[/quote']

 

Holy s***, you're giving me a headache. Did you even read my post? Read it again and understand my argument, because you completely just butchered it. You completely wasted your time finding all those stats. My argument was to keep balance throughout the lineup while putting people in better spots throughout the lineup. The only time I used OBP was when I was rationalizing the thought of putting Drew in the 2 hole. THAT'S IT. Somehow, you managed to think I was using OBP differently. You're wrong.

 

Who's the better 5 hitter? Drew or Youkilis? Youkilis. I don't need to back this up because I'm pretty sure we're all on the same page with that. So pencil in Youkilis with his hot bat and pop in the 5 hole. He's the best 5 hitter on the team right now and would provide tons more protection to Papi/Manny than Drew has been so far.

 

Now you have to figure out what to do with Drew/Pedroia/Lugo/Crisp. I like where everyone else is at the moment. My point is that Crisp and Lugo at the bottom of the order 8/9 is just like a NL's bottom two, including the pitcher. It's terrible. It's almost as bad as Corky Miller and Alex Cora at the bottom of the lineup (see end of 2006).

 

You NEED Pedroia to wield a hot stick in the 9 hole to maintain balance in the lineup, as he is right now. Crisp has not done ANYTHING to suggest he should even sniff the top of the lineup. He's 8th.

 

Lugo isn't the ideal leadoff hitter, but he has speed and has gotten some RBIs from that leadoff position and when he does get on, he steals bases. He can also be a tough out.

 

NOW, pay attention, because I'm going to do this one more time. Drew in the 2 hole isn't terrible because his OBP is still above average. With Papi and Manny behind him, he just has to find a way on base. I don't care how he does it, just get on. Yes, if I wanted to put the best OBP guys here, I would have put Youk or Pedroia there. But, you misunderstood what I was saying. Despite the fact that he doesn't have the best OBP, it's still 30ish points above average. That's fine for a 2 hitter.

 

Please don't put words in my mouth and tell me what my argument is. I know what I said, thanks.

[TedWilliams101]

Schil, Have you totally forgotten about Mike Lowell? Mike Lowell leads the team in HR, RBI, and is second in slugging behind Ortiz (.579:.573). So actually, Lowell is the better 5 hitter. Youk has a higher OBP, and AVG, which makes him ideal to be in the 2 spot.

 

So you move Lowell to the 5 spot, drop Drew down to the 7 spot, and move Pedroia to leadoff.

1. Pedroia

2. Youk

3. Ortiz

4. Ramirez

5. Lowell

6. Tek

7. Drew

8. Lugo

9. Crisp

 

1-7 in that lineup is solid. Lugo in the 8 has speed and some pop. Crisp also has the potential to turn it around. And there would be a lot of speed in the bottom of the order. Lugo has shown that he can drive in some runs, so putting Drew in front of him might give him opportunities because Drew does walk a lot. I think moving Drew down in the lineup makes the bottom a little stronger/more patient. But most importantly, you want the guys who get on base the most in the top of the lineup.

 

Anyways, last time I checked, teams put their weakest hitter in the 9 hole. Coco would certainly qualify for that.

[TedWilliams101]

I'm not saying this is critical. Were playing great baseball. But you should try to put the best lineup on the field, and I believe that lineup would give us the best shot of putting up the most runs possible.

 

The only move I REALLY hate is when Terry puts Lugo and Coco in the 1 and 2 spot. Thats just retarted. You shouldn't have 2 guys hitting under .240 with sub .300OBP in the top 2 spots in the lineup. Thats just dumb.

[TheKilo]

Schil, Have you totally forgotten about Mike Lowell? Mike Lowell leads the team in HR, RBI, and is second in slugging behind Ortiz (.579:.573). So actually, Lowell is the better 5 hitter. Youk has a higher OBP, and AVG, which makes him ideal to be in the 2 spot.

 

So you move Lowell to the 5 spot, drop Drew down to the 7 spot, and move Pedroia to leadoff.

1. Pedroia

2. Youk

3. Ortiz

4. Ramirez

5. Lowell

6. Tek

7. Drew

8. Lugo

9. Crisp

 

1-7 in that lineup is solid. Lugo in the 8 has speed and some pop. Crisp also has the potential to turn it around. And there would be a lot of speed in the bottom of the order. Lugo has shown that he can drive in some runs, so putting Drew in front of him might give him opportunities because Drew does walk a lot. I think moving Drew down in the lineup makes the bottom a little stronger/more patient. But most importantly, you want the guys who get on base the most in the top of the lineup.

 

Anyways, last time I checked, teams put their weakest hitter in the 9 hole. Coco would certainly qualify for that.

 

I'm still waiting on the Mike Lowell regression.

 

Really all I want is Pedroia leading off.

[TedWilliams101]

Yea I think Lowell wont stay this hot, but the fact remains that he deserves to be in the 5 spot.

[TheKilo]

Yea I think Lowell wont stay this hot' date=' but the fact remains that he deserves to be in the 5 spot.[/quote']

 

So you want to move him into that spot knowing full well he can't keep that production up.

[seabeachfred]

Pedroia

Youks

Ortiz

Manny

Lowell

Drew

Tek

Lugo

Crisp

 

The last month or so I have come to respect your take on things very much, but do you think Pedroia is ready to step into such an important spot? Remember, I ask this as a big Pedroia fan who I always believed could be a very good player for us. I'm just wondering if he is mentally toughened enough on June 1 to make the switch. It would be great if he was.

[TedWilliams101]

If anything, I think it would be a confidence booster. He is hot right now, and for the best team in baseball to move a rookie to the leadoff spot right now would be telling on how he is playing.

 

And of course I would put Lowell in the 5 spot expecting him to cool off a bit. Right now he is on pace to hit 32 HR and 133 RBI. If he cools off, he could still easily drive in 100 runs and hit 25HR. Thats far better than what Drew will do, even if he heats up.

[seabeachfred]

The "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" train of thought is nice, and sure, what we've done up to this point has gotten us to 36-16... but why be content with that? What's wrong with trying to improve our team?

 

If there's a better order for our lineup that improves our offense, then I'm all for it.

 

Red, good for you. I cannot understand all this "if it ain't broke don't fix it" bs. I would think we would want to improve on our record, not hold the fort. Sitting on a winning record, or sitting on a lead is crapola. You can only be a great team by extending yourself and trying to become an elite team. The opportunity is there for us this year to become such a team. Why pass up a chance to do so? If it will make us better, I say go for it.

 

One caveat, though. I would not be so anxious to give up on Julio Lugo. He has had his moments at the plate where he has done some damage. It is Crisp who worries the hell out of me.

[TedWilliams101]

I think the idea of "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" tends to much to the idea of playing not to lose. The Sox should always play to win. They should always play tough, agressive, and always look to improve. Thats how you win. The reason why people say that is because they fear losing. They don't want to change anything in fear it might cool off the team, etc. Thats playing not to lose (or wanting to play not to lose). Thats not a great philosophy.

[schillingouttheks]

Schil, Have you totally forgotten about Mike Lowell? Mike Lowell leads the team in HR, RBI, and is second in slugging behind Ortiz (.579:.573). So actually, Lowell is the better 5 hitter. Youk has a higher OBP, and AVG, which makes him ideal to be in the 2 spot.

 

So you move Lowell to the 5 spot, drop Drew down to the 7 spot, and move Pedroia to leadoff.

1. Pedroia

2. Youk

3. Ortiz

4. Ramirez

5. Lowell

6. Tek

7. Drew

8. Lugo

9. Crisp

 

1-7 in that lineup is solid. Lugo in the 8 has speed and some pop. Crisp also has the potential to turn it around. And there would be a lot of speed in the bottom of the order. Lugo has shown that he can drive in some runs, so putting Drew in front of him might give him opportunities because Drew does walk a lot. I think moving Drew down in the lineup makes the bottom a little stronger/more patient. But most importantly, you want the guys who get on base the most in the top of the lineup.

 

Anyways, last time I checked, teams put their weakest hitter in the 9 hole. Coco would certainly qualify for that.

 

Fair enough. I guess we'll have to agree to disagree. I just don't agree at all with Lugo and Crisp 8/9, but to each his own. If we're in a big position to rally and we have the bottom of our lineup coming up, I want to know that we have a bat like Pedroia that can get it done. I don't want the sinking feeling of having Lugo and Crisp back to back.

 

I know about Lowell, I just like him in the 6 hole because of the inevitable regression. Youk won't be as hot either most likely, but I have a feeling his regression will be a bit less than Lowell's.

 

For the record, I know I come off as pretty hostile sometimes when I'm debating, but it's nothing personal I just don't want to scare you off from debating with me in the future and thinking I don't respect your view. Just understand that I can get pretty passionate, lol.

 

Oh, I also completely agree with you as far as the "if it ain't broke, don't fix it" philosophy goes.

[TedWilliams101]

Schil, I completely agree with you on not liking lugo and crips 8/9, but I'd rather that than either of them in the top of the lineup. I guess its a matter of which would be worse.

 

And about having Lugo and Crisp due up when we need a rally, well, I hope it wouldn't come down to that. lol. Maybe in that spot you would go to the bench? I don't know. I just hope one or both of them starts hitting.

[TheKilo]

The last month or so I have come to respect your take on things very much' date=' but do you think Pedroia is ready to step into such an important spot? Remember, I ask this as a big Pedroia fan who I always believed could be a very good player for us. I'm just wondering if he is mentally toughened enough on June 1 to make the switch. It would be great if he was.[/quote']

 

 

Honestly? Yes. Even when he was "struggling", he was taking a lot of pitches and grinding out excellent ABs. His BABIP was an excellent indicator of the really bad luck he had.

 

I can see the allure of keeping him at #9, if only to make the bottom of the order not suck, but I really think you have to put a lineup together with the philosophy of getting your best hitters the most at bats. Pedroia is much better than Lugo (especially in terms of getting on base) and he's worlds better than Crisp.

[castigs850]

i came in hear gung hoe to say i dont want to switch the lineup around, and like others "if it aint broke dont fix it" came to mind instantly.

however, the lineup kilo posted at the beginning of the thread immediately changed my thinking.

the only thing that i think i would do to change it would be to make youk leadoff and pedroia #2 simply because i am more comfortable with youk's ability to get on base rather than pedroia's.

 

the most surprising thing about this thread is kilo's lineup didnt include WMP!!