April 20th vs. New York

[jacksonianmarch]

Why' date=' if our rotation can't keep it up, is your offense going to continue with 7 of 9 either at or substantially above expected performance? Apply the same rational standard to both teams.[/quote']

 

We are missing one of our best hitters ORS.

[ORS]

We are missing one of our best hitters ORS.

That doesn't answer the question.

 

EDIT: The amount ARod, Posada, Abreu, and Jeter are above their career averages is substantially better than whatever improvement you will get from 1B, 2B, and LF (with LF being the biggest improvement).

[TheKilo]

I'm done arguing these points. Jacko and Gom only look at one side of the coin, time to let everything play out on the field.

 

Have fun "running away with the division"

[jacksonianmarch]

Damon- .300AVG is right about normal and is conceivable that he could kep it up. His .440OBP is above last seasons and his career, he wont keep that up. His SLG of .475 is slightly below where it was last season. As for Damon, the only thing I'd say for certain is that his OBP will drop.

 

Jeter- .323 is below where he was last yr and is conceivable to be continued. His .391OBP is 20 points lower than what it was last yr and is right where his career is. His .371SLG is well below career lines.

 

Abreu- His .345AVG is not sustainable. But his .406OBP is 6 points lower than his career OBP and his .414SLG is well below career averages. It is possible that he could lower his BA, increase his OBP, SLG and his OPS. Right now, he is underachieving aside from singles.

 

ARod- out of his mind in all aspects. The only thing that is sustainable is his .418OBP

 

Giambi- His avg is right where it was last yr. His OBP is WAY below his normal, about 60 points. His SLG is well below his last yrs total too. Conceivably, Giambi should increase his OBP and SLG.

 

Posada- AVG, OBP, and SLG are up. AVG is WAY up, OBP up 19 points from last yr, SLG up 37 points from last yr. We should see a regression in all phases from Posada

 

Cano- His AVG, OBP, and SLG are WAY below where he was last yr or the yr before.

 

Matsui- hasnt played aside from 3 games. He is way better than Melky offensively

 

Minky/Phelps- Phelps is playing well, nobody really knows what he can bring and Dougie is well below his average. I'd assume they both will average out like this.

 

So in all....

 

What should drop

1. Damon's OBP

2. Abreu's BA

3. ARod's AVG

4. ARod's SLG

5. Posada's AVG

6. Posada's SLG

7. Posada's OBP

 

What should get better

1. Jeter's OBP

2. Jeter's SLG

3. Abreu's SLG

4. Giambi's OBP

5. Giambi's SLG

6. Cano's AVG

7. Cano's SLG

8. Cano's OBP

9. LF (Matsui for Melky)'s AVG

10. LF (Matsui for Melky)'s OBP

11. LF (Matsui for Melky)'s SLG

 

 

What should be sustainable

1. Damon's AVG

2. Damon's SLG

3. Jeter's AVG

4. Abreu's OBP

5. ARod's OBP

6. Giambi's AVG

7. 1b's AVG

8. 1b's SLG

9. 1b's OBP

 

So in all, assuming there are 27 phases of the yankees' offense, 7 should regress, 11 should improve and 9 should stay the same. So, you are wrong ORS.

[redsoxrules]

are you serious jacko?

 

every player that you mentioned isn't gonna have the year that you expect ..just because of their career stats it dosent mean that their gonna finish with that

[ORS]

Yeah, sure. Jeter, Cano, Damon, and Abreu (NY numbers) career-like years are the measuring stick. Those career averages don't play a factor.

 

The Drops you Forgot:

Damon's BA/SLG

 

What Shouldn't get better:

Jeter's OBP

Cano's OBP

 

Things that will get better, but more marginally that you think with age/trend:

Giambi's OBP/SLG

Abreu's SLG

 

Things I don't think can be predicted very well:

1B

 

EDIT: And, the rough count doesn't hit on the crux of my post. Magnitude counts. The dropoff from the regressions will be much larger than the gains in improvements.

[rician blast]

Talk about catching a break...the wife calls and says my kids are both sleeping over their friend's house tonight, do I wanna go grab a beer and watch the game.

 

She didn't get as much of a kick out of it as me when I said "yeah, great idea, I'll call Bob....but what are you gonna do tonight?"

 

Anyway, cool my wife thinks like that...now if I could just get her to watch it with me at a titty bar.

[jacksonianmarch]

Yeah, sure. Jeter, Cano, Damon, and Abreu (NY numbers) career-like years are the measuring stick. Those career averages don't play a factor.

 

The Drops you Forgot:

Damon's BA/SLG

 

Damon: Is it truly inconceivable to think Damon could hit .300? Is it truly inconceivable to consider that he could sustain the SLG he had FOR THE ENTIRE SEASON last yr. He has hit .300 4 times before and as recently as 2005. And his SLG, he has had a BETTER SLG than this one twice in the last 3 yrs. Your point here is wrong. The only way you can absolutely say that something is unsustainable is if they havent proven they could do it before. And Damon has done it on multiple occasions both times.

 

What Shouldn't get better:

Jeter's OBP

Cano's OBP

 

Cano's OBP is 20 points below his career average. Jeter's OBP is something you could argue will stay where it is, you are correct. Wrong on Cano, potentially right on Jeter.

 

Things that will get better, but more marginally that you think with age/trend:

Giambi's OBP/SLG

Abreu's SLG

wait, now you are bringing age into it. OR, maybe it is because Giambi nearly ALWAYS starts off like s***. Oh no, his slow start will be sustainable, but nobody's hot streaks are? Cmon ORS, you are better than that. As for Abreu's SLG, his was 50 points higher last yr than it was this yr. Are you serious? Age for a guy who just turned 33? Weak.

 

Things I don't think can be predicted very well:

Cano's BA/SLG

1B

 

Cano's BA and Slugging will increase. Cano had a full season right around .300 and a full season at .340. It is insane to think that he will flounder in the .260s based off his past numbers. And his slugging? The guy has hit 14 and 15 homers in the past 2 yrs yet has none to this point and has only 2 EBH when he had 34 and 41 doubles alone the past 2 seasons. Thinking he will stay this poor is wishful thinking at its best.

 

EDIT: And, the rough count doesn't hit on the crux of my post. Magnitude counts. The dropoff from the regressions will be much larger than the gains in improvements.

 

 

and this one is a beaut. I give you that the dropoff expected from ARod is a large magnitude, but name me one other player who's projected dropoff is of a large enough magnitude to offset the loss of Matsui, Abreu's and Giambi's slumping power, Cano's disappearing act, and Jeter's total lack of SLG to this point. Face it, our offense is actually playing worse than what it is capable of. But dont let that get in your way of what you believe.

 

EDIT: I also highly doubt that our composite 1b hits .200/.285/.320/.605 for the whole yr.

[Optimist]

I'm going to be missing the game.

 

I'm hoping to get home in time for the YES replay.

[adam123]

Now this what I have been waiting for . This is gonna be great series best in the game today .

 

GO SOX !!!

[riverside sluggers]

Manny's going deep tonight!

http://graphics8.nytimes.com/images/2004/09/26/sports/26manny583.jpg

 

Andy Pettitte (22 games vs Boston, 13-5 record with a 3.01 ERA---Career at Fenway Park in 10 games, 5-2 record with a 2.98 ERA)

Julio Lugo, 4 for 8 (.500 avg) 2 Ks

Kevin Youkilis ---

David Ortiz, 9 for 22 (.409 avg) 3 Doubles, HR, 3 RBIs, 2 Walks, 6 Ks, SB

Manny Ramirez, 25 for 59 (.424 avg) 7 Doubles, 3 HRs, 18 RBIs, 5 Walks, 4 Ks, SB

J.D. Drew, 3 for 8 (.375 avg) Double, 2 HRs. 2 RBIs, Walk, 4 Ks

Mike Lowell, 0 for 1

Jason Varitek, 13 for 36 (.361 avg) Double, Triple, 4 RBIs, 3 Walks, 12 Ks

Coco Crisp, 0 for 4, K

Dustin Pedroia ---

///

Alex Cora, 0 for 2

Eric Hinske, 1 for 7 (.143 avg) Double, Walk, 3 Ks

Doug Mirabelli, 0 for 3, K

Wily Mo Pena, 3 for 7 (.429 avg) Double, 2 RBIs, 2 Ks

 

Curt Schilling (19 games vs New York, 7-5 record with a 4.44 ERA---Career at Fenway Park in 58 games, 26-8 record & 6 saves with a 3.89 ERA)

Johnny Damon, 5 for 18 (.278 avg) 2 Doubles, HR, 2 RBIs, Walk, 2 Ks

Derek Jeter, 9 for 39 (.231 avg) HR, 3 RBIs, Walk, 12 Ks

Bobby Abreu, 10 for 27 (.370 avg) 4 Doubles, 5 RBIs, Walk, 8 Ks

Alex Rodriguez, 6 for 31 (.194 avg) 2 HRs, 3 RBIs, Walk, 9 Ks

Jason Giambi, 7 for 27 (.259 avg) Double, 4 HRs, 8 RBIs, 2 Walks, 8 Ks

Jorge Posada, 10 for 29 (.345 avg) 3 Doubles, HR, 6 RBIs, 4 Walks, 6 Ks

Robinson Cano, 6 for 17 (.353 avg) HR, RBI, Walk, 3 Ks

Melky Cabrera, 1 for 10 (.100 avg) Double, Walk

Doug Mientkiewicz, 0 for 3, K

///

Miguel Cairo, 3 for 16 (.188 avg) 2 Ks

Josh Phelps, 4 for 14 (.286 avg) 2 Doubles, RBI, 3 Ks

[seabeachfred]

Pettitte has a 13-5 lifetime record against us and he probably thinks he can beat us again. We have to divest him of that idea and tonight is the night to do it. I'm anxious to see who steps up against the Yankees and who craps out. I have always judged Red Sox players by how they do in this rivalry. The pressure is intense and those with the heart, guts and balls are the ones who will lead us to success. The others are fit mostly for the scrap heap, mean as that sounds.

[jacksonianmarch]

Pettitte has a 13-5 lifetime record against us and he probably thinks he can beat us again. We have to divest him of that idea and tonight is the night to do it. I'm anxious to see who steps up against the Yankees and who craps out. I have always judged Red Sox players by how they do in this rivalry. The pressure is intense and those with the heart' date=' guts and balls are the ones who will lead us to success. The others are fit mostly for the scrap heap, mean as that sounds.[/quote']

 

the sox mindset should be work Pettitte and get him out of the game. Even if they work him and lose, they still give the yankees pen that much more work. And for the weekend, their pen will need to be rested.

[jacksonianmarch]

Here we go.

[jacksonianmarch]

not really sure why Minky is starting. Phelps is hitting over .300 in his limited ABs and Minky is riding the interstate.

[jacksonianmarch]

Schilling busting Damon in twice. 0-2.

 

YES gun has him 87 right now. Has to be off.

[jacksonianmarch]

First pitch swinging by Jeter? WTF? That pitch wasnt even close. 2 easy outs from Schill.

[redsoxrules]

1-2-3 with only 8 pitches nice!

[castigs850]

a rod is gonna get laid out now

[ORS]

Wildness. Give us a quick 3-spot, Manny.

[ORS]

That curve looks a bit more than "show me" tonight.

[See Red]

I've never been all that scared of A-Rod in the past... but I am right now.

 

On another note, these green jerseys are nice... I own one, actually... but this is the first time I'm watching a game on TV where they're wearing them and they don't look particularly great on the field. At least one person, Francona, has the VT logo in sharpie on the side of his hat.

 

Alright, we got passed A-Rod. I can't even put into words how happy I am to not see Sheffield in the Yankees lineup anymore.

[ORS]

Schilling looks sharp.

[redsoxrules]

another 9 pitch inning, sweet!

[castigs850]

those were three scary outs, they all carried pretty well and off the bat they didnt look like they would go as far as they did.

[BoSox21]

lots of warning track shots tonight, thank god the wind isnt blowing out

[redsoxrules]

for christ sakes 2 DP allready

[castigs850]

lets live for the wonder of it all

[jacksonianmarch]

both are dealin.

[jacksonianmarch]

how hard is schill throwing, the YES gun is being run by a purple monkey dishwasher.