Keith Law ranks farm systems

[jacksonianmarch]

Yankees 5th and Red Sox 14th.

 

 

As part of the prep work for my Hot Stove Heater on farm systems, I did a cursory ranking of all 30 farm systems, which I present below (rankings are from best (1) to worst (30)). Just a quick note on my criteria:

• Players who have lost their rookie eligibility don't count for this exercise.

 

• Both ability and performance count when looking at individual players, and both ceiling and depth count when looking at systems.

 

• I'm a strong believer in the "time value of prospects" -- the idea that a prospect's value increases significantly as he gets closer to the big leagues. So an organization like Washington, with most of its best prospects in short-season ball in 2006, scores poorly here, because those prospects are four or five years away from the majors, and the attrition rate on those kids is going to be high.

 

One other thing to bear in mind is how volatile these rankings are. Matt Garza finished the last season at 50 innings, so he's a rookie in 2007 by the slimmest of margins; without him, the Twins would rank a few notches lower. By the middle of '07, a number of these teams will have moved around as players have "graduated" from their farm systems to the big leagues.

 

1. Tampa Bay: Packed with high-ceiling bats and a lot of pitching depth, although most of it was in A-ball in 2006.

 

2. Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki and Chris Iannetta give them two outstanding up-the-middle prospects, and outfielder Dexter Fowler, who turned down a chance to go to some liberal arts school in Cambridge, Mass., looks like an outstanding late sign from 2005.

 

3. Arizona: One of the most impressive waves of hitting prospects that any team has assembled continues in 2007 with Chris Young ready to step in and Carlos Gonzalez and Justin Upton coming along behind him.

 

4. Kansas City: Little depth, but their top three prospects (Alex Gordon, Billy Butler and Luke Hochevar) are as good as any organization's top three.

 

5. N.Y. Yankees: Massive improvement since 2005, buttressed by some trades for prospects and a higher-ceiling approach to the draft.

 

6. Cleveland: Perhaps the best depth system in the game, with one impact prospect in Adam Miller and two left-handed starters who are close to that in Scott Lewis and Chuck Lofgren.

 

7. N.Y. Mets: Three potential impact guys in Fernando Martinez, Mike Pelfrey, and Phil Humber (if he's healthy), but the system lacks depth, with a lot of their better prospects still in short-season ball.

 

8. L.A. Angels: The next wave of Angels arms is coming, led by Nick Adenhart and Jose Arredondo. Brandon Wood and Erick Aybar are both above-average prospects who are close to reaching the majors.

 

9. Milwaukee: The Brewers' top pitching prospect, Yovanni Gallardo, doesn't have the name value of Philip Hughes or Homer Bailey, but he's just about in their class.

 

10. Minnesota: Very good pitching depth, with Matt Garza about to graduate from the system, but their high school bats just haven't panned out.

 

11. Detroit: The Gary Sheffield deal kept them out of the top 10, but Cameron Maybin is just a tick below the Jose Tabatas and Fernando Martinezes of the world, while Andrew Miller should be one of the top five pitching prospects in the minors by midseason.

 

12. Atlanta: Depth without ceiling, especially since one-time blue-chip prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia now has several dents in his armor (injuries, hitting struggles and his sheer size, which may move him out from behind the plate).

 

13. Baltimore: Slow progress up these rankings, but the system is starting to build some depth, which should pay off in 2008. Brandon Snyder's struggles in 2006 were a huge disappointment.

 

14. Boston: The Josh Beckett deal took out two of their top prospects, but they still have future Gold Glove outfielder Jacoby Ellsbury and right-handed starter Clay Buchholz, both about a year away from reaching the majors, and I rated their 2006 draft the best of all clubs'.

 

15. Cincinnati: Most of the system's value is concentrated on Homer Bailey, perhaps the best pitching prospect in baseball.

 

16. Chi. White Sox: The Brandon McCarthy and Freddy Garcia trades helped to restock a system depleted by deals for veterans. Ryan Sweeney and Josh Fields are both ready to step into major-league roles if needed.

 

17. L.A. Dodgers: No team was hurt more in these rankings by promotions than the Dodgers, as Matt Kemp would be one of the top 10 prospects in baseball if he qualified, and Chad Billingsley spent most of last year in the majors when the initial plan was to give him a year in Triple-A. Scott Elbert's control troubles are also a concern.

 

18. Houston: Hunter Pence and Troy Patton are both solid prospects, but the Astros have given up a number of draft picks to sign free agents, and their 2005 first-rounder, Tulane left-hander Brian Bogusevic, still hasn't gotten past the Midwest League (Class A).

 

19. Chi. Cubs: Other than the enigmatic Felix Pie, there isn't much close to the majors here.

 

20. Pittsburgh: Andrew McCutchen already looks like the steal of the 2005 draft's first round, but behind him and 2006 first-rounder Brad Lincoln, there's very little here.

 

21. Oakland: Their 2003 class was a huge bust, and their first three picks in 2004 are all probably washouts as well, with the fourth pick in that draft, Huston Street, already comfortably ensconced in the majors.

 

22. Florida: To be fair, all of the Marlins' prospects spent 2006 in the majors. They do have a wave of big-tools pitchers coming, including Sean West and Chris Volstad.

 

23. Washington: The Nats have some promising kids (like Colten Willems) who spent the year in short-season ball, but nothing remotely close to the majors. Their system was also badly hurt by the period of MLB ownership, which ran a bare-bones scouting budget and provided little incentive for the team to think long-term.

 

24. Toronto: Adam Lind has star potential, but the only other impact prospect here is outfielder Travis Snider, who spent 2006 in rookie ball with a team that no longer exists.

 

25. Seattle: The Mariners have given up a lot of picks to sign free agents, and their last two first-rounders (Jeff Clement in 2005 and Brandon Morrow in 2006) both look like long-term injury risks.

 

26. Texas: Probably the shocker of the list for me, as the Rangers' touted DVD trio hasn't panned out as planned, with Thomas Diamond looking destined for the pen and John Danks dealt to pick up the more major-league ready Brandon McCarthy.

 

27. San Francisco: No surprise here, as the Giants have willfully surrendered their first-round picks for years until they were forced by the rules to keep their No. 1 in 2006, which they used to select Tim Lincecum, now their top prospect.

 

28. St. Louis: Saved from the bottom spot by Colby Rasmus, who just needs to pass the Double-A test to become one of the top 10 to 15 prospects in the minors.

 

29. Philadelphia: Thin system which got thinner by the sudden rise of Cole Hamels. The closest solid-average prospect to the majors here is Carlos Carrasco, who spent the year in low-A.

 

30. San Diego: The system's best prospects are Kevin Kouzmanoff, a low-power corner bat just acquired from Cleveland, and pitcher Cesar Carrillo, who missed the last half of the season with elbow trouble. Years of unproductive drafts have really taken a toll here.

[ksushi]

Don't pat yourself on the back too hard, champ. Papelbon, Lester, Hansen and Pedroia are no longer considered prospects and therefore wouldn't be factored in here.

[jacksonianmarch]

Lester, Pedroia and Hansen are still considered prospects ksush. Papelbon is not.

[example1]

Lester' date=' Pedroia and Hansen are still considered prospects ksush. Papelbon is not.[/quote']

 

Where does that say it above? Just curious.

[riverside sluggers]

This doesnt mean whatsoever that the Sox farm is fledgling down to the Duquette Days. We still have promising players coming up shortly to try and make an impression on the Red Sox. Slated for mid-season or September debuts are Jacoby Ellsbury, George Kottaras, Chad Spann, Brandon Moss (better used for trade), and the promising reliever Edgar Martinez who will be Pawtucket's possible closer this season. And these are just the players who will be in Triple A. The Sox have a good outlook to the future

[example1]

With a quick look at soxprospects.com I can see why an otherwise strong-looking system is ranked so low. 6 of the top 12 potential prospects have yet to play a full season (Lars Anderson, Kris Johnson, Jason Place, Justin Masterson, Daniel Bard and Bryce Cox). I imagine if each of these guys play to their potential we'll be talking about a higher ranked system. Not that I actually care. Two of our minor league teams won titles last year, so its definitely not all doom and gloom.

[a700hitter]

Yes, I would be thrilled to be ranked in the top 5 with Tampa, Colorado, Arizona and Kansas City.

[scaffolds]

#14 is a bit too low, BA has the Sox system at #9, a #11 is more realistic one.

[ANiMAL]

im not worried about this ranking... doesnt mean anything, even though we are so low, therefore i know that his system of ranking is hog-wash

[SchillingIsTheNatural]

In the end it doesn't matter how your farm system is as a whole. What you want is the ability to develop those 3-5 players who can make a difference. Between all the leagues in the minors you are lucky to get a few players who can really contribute.

 

If the Red Sox can develop Ellsbury, Buccholz, Bowden, Bard and Place...then I'm happy. In my mind those are the guys with the biggest upside who might have a shot at making the Red Sox squad. Even then I think its a bigger possibility 2-3 of those guys gets traded because there just isn't room on the major league team.

[jacksonianmarch]

it is all in the eyes of the beholder. Law states that he holds merit in proximity to the majors. In that respect, the sox deserve a 14 ranking. Lester with lymphoma, Hansen sucking in his debut, Kottaras being an overrated prospect from a crappy SD system who had a horrible AAA yr last yr. The sox big boys are the Ellsbury, the 3 B's, Place and Anderson. And 3 of them were drafted last yr, 2 of which are HS positional players. One may make the bigs this yr, Buchholz may be on pace for the bigs in 08, who knows. The only legit prospect close is Ellsbury and he isnt your impact rookie sensation type player.

[riverside sluggers]

Edgar Martinez should be a mid-season call up and I guarantee he will make a good impact in the bullpen. Its seeming as if he's setting up to be the dark horse candidate. Eh the less buzz on him now, the more excietment it will be when he starts to prove himself up in Boston

[jacksonianmarch]

Last yr everything came together for him. I heard that his secondary stuff is still a bit inconsistent. You can bet he's an option midseason though. At the same time, 25 yr old middle relief prospects arent very high on farm system rankings. edgar may be impactful. Why do you think I had him as an option for my closer poll?

[riverside sluggers]

Sorry I guess I mustve forgotten he was on your poll. While yes it is rare for 25 year old relief prospects to still be in the minors.. still keep in mind he converted to a reliever from catcher while in the Sox minor league system. There in itself can explain somewhat why the Sox have been easing him along

[jacksonianmarch]

I agree. I love converted players. Less mileage on the shoulders and less bad habits to break. The Yankees have a few guys who have been converted. Whelan, Claggett, Tejeda, and De la Rosa to name a few.

 

I'm high on Martinez. I like the kid, but seeing as he is pretty raw, I'd leave him in AAA for the yr unless absolutely necessary and bring him in next yr.

[example1]

it is all in the eyes of the beholder. Law states that he holds merit in proximity to the majors. In that respect' date=' the sox deserve a 14 ranking. Lester with lymphoma, Hansen sucking in his debut, Kottaras being an overrated prospect from a crappy SD system who had a horrible AAA yr last yr. The sox big boys are the Ellsbury, the 3 B's, Place and Anderson. And 3 of them were drafted last yr, 2 of which are HS positional players. One may make the bigs this yr, Buchholz may be on pace for the bigs in 08, who knows. The only legit prospect close is Ellsbury and he isnt your impact rookie sensation type player.[/quote']

 

He should hold merit in proximity to the majors. I don't know about Kottaras being overrated. From what I've read the Sox told him to work 100% on his defense and game calling, after moving to a new organization.

 

You're also right about Ellsbury, the 3 B's, Place and Anderson being the big ones. Position prospects can get such so many props without having proven themselves while pitchers tend to get overlooked in lieu of good position players. I guess I'm thinking about other really good prospects like Kris Johnson and Justin Masterson. I think both are very good prospects. Then there's all of the 16 year old-ish talent that the Sox have. It means very little now bu tthey have some very high upside guys.

 

It makes sense that the Yankees farm system is going to be strong, after trading RJ and Sheffield for nothing but minor leaguers. I think that the Yankees could have the greatest ever farm system if they just traded all of their premier-name talent for young, unproven guys. can you tell them to do that please, Jacksonian?

[jacksonianmarch]

This isnt just about the trades, it is about the draft and the INTL signings. This past yrs draft, Cashman took Chamberlain, Betances, Melancon outside of the first round because of their injury history or because they were pricing themselves out of the market. Last yr it was Austin Jackson in the 8th round. Then you have the loaded DSL that the yankees have had the past 2 yrs. Ivan Nova, Angel Reyes, Zoilo Almonte and many more. Then the over the top signing of Montero and the INTL signing of Tabata. This team is not going to be the past 5 yrs yankees anymore. They are finally putting some of that money into prospects, something that George never did.

[BSN07]

Everyone keeps forgeting about Cox. Foxsports.com had him as one of the best prospects starting 07 int he minors. He was 4th or 5th on the list.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bryce Cox will not see the majors for a while. At least he shouldnt. He has 2 filthy pitches but he needs a lot of refinement. He's also a new draftee, so dont coronate him as the next coming just yet.

[riverside sluggers]

Id say September 2008 would be the earliest time we could speculate him making his debut in the majors, that might be too optimistic though. Soxprospects.com expects him to climb through the system this season

[jacksonianmarch]

Id say September 2008 would be the earliest time we could speculate him making his debut in the majors' date=' that might be too optimistic though. Soxprospects.com expects him to climb through the system this season[/quote']

 

relievers do tend to climb faster than others. It will be interesting to see how he adjusts. He should start at High A this yr with a ceiling of AA. I would think they have learned their lesson with Hansen on what happens when you rush a promising relief pitcher.

[RobZombie]

Lester and Hansen aren't prospects anymore, so they don't help any rankings. Pedroia is still a prospect.

 

Law just give higher due to players who have a reasonable chance to be an impact player. The Red Sox really don't have any. At the fringes you could argue Buchholtz has a chance but he hardly has any experience above A ball.

 

Ellsberry looks like he maybe a good player though not an impact or elite player.

 

The Royals don't have as many prospects as the Red Sox do, but their top three is heads and tails above anything the Red Sox have.

[jacksonianmarch]

Rob, in his rankings, Pedroia and Hansen and Lester are included.

[ksushi]

I don't think they are. I read what he had to say and he didn't mention any of them that I saw. Since they aren't considered prospects anymore, I don't see why they would be.

[jacksonianmarch]

I don't think they are. I read what he had to say and he didn't mention any of them that I saw. Since they aren't considered prospects anymore' date=' I don't see why they would be.[/quote']

 

they are considered prospects still. Your rookie status doesnt kick in until you throw I believe 85 innings or have 300ABs or spend one full calendar yr on a major league roster.

[scaffolds]

This isnt just about the trades' date=' it is about the draft and the INTL signings. This past yrs draft, Cashman took Chamberlain, Betances, Melancon outside of the first round because of their injury history or because they were pricing themselves out of the market. Last yr it was Austin Jackson in the 8th round. Then you have the loaded DSL that the yankees have had the past 2 yrs. Ivan Nova, Angel Reyes, Zoilo Almonte and many more. Then the over the top signing of Montero and the INTL signing of Tabata. This team is not going to be the past 5 yrs yankees anymore. They are finally putting some of that money into prospects, something that George never did.[/quote']

 

Jackson, First of all i understand that Montero signed this Spring for a seven figures contract, but part of the reason it was so high contract it was because some scouts taught that he could be a catcher, however this fall instructional league showed that his skills as a catcher isn't very strong and that if he has a future it would had to be as a first baseman, as a first baseman he wouldn't had got the same contract, but even his showing as a hitter it wasn't very impresive.

[ksushi]

they are considered prospects still. Your rookie status doesnt kick in until you throw I believe 85 innings or have 300ABs or spend one full calendar yr on a major league roster.

 

Pedroia is still a prospect, got me there. Lester and Hansen are not. There is also a number of days spent up at the ML level that qualifies a player for Rookie Status, I distinctly remember Hansen and Lester both reaching that point. If you can dig up some proof otherwise, cool, but until then it's my understanding that his analysis of the Sox system is without both Lester and Hansen.

[ORS]

MLB's rookie status thresholds are as follows:

 

Position Players - 130 ABs or more than 45 days on the 25-man roster (Sept. doesn't count because it is the 40-man roster)

Pitchers - 50 IP or more than 45 days on the 25-man

 

Losing rookie status does not mean you cannot be considered a prospect by scouting agencies though.

 

link

[ksushi]

I'm pretty sure Lester and Hansen wouldn't be factored into the discussion at this point.