Sox most impressive pitching prospect?

[jacksonianmarch]

I continue to see people split on the three B's, so lets see how split you all are.

 

I think Bowden is the kid to keep. Youngest of the three, has some power, the most developed secondary pitches and will likely be brought along slowly. His control is phenomenal as well.

[scaffolds]

Going into the 2007 season Buchholz is #1, Bowden is #2 and Bard is #3, but projection wise Buchholz project to be a #2, Bowden a #2 or #3 and Bard a #1.

[Papelbon58]

I voted for Bard, because when it is all said and done, he seems certain to have the best career, but between Buchholz and Bowden, I would take Bowden because he is a pure pitcher who has multiple pitches, while Buchholz is a converted outfielder with an arm.

[riverside sluggers]

I voted for Bard' date=' because when it is all said and done, he seems certain to have the best career, but between Buchholz and Bowden, I would take Bowden because he is a pure pitcher who has multiple pitches, while Buchholz is a converted outfielder with an arm.[/quote']

 

Scouting Report: Buchholz has a low-to-mid 90s four-seam fastball, a two-seam fastball, a slider, a hard 12-to-6 curveball, and a circle change. In 2006, Buchholz actually let loose towards the end of the season, when his fastball was sitting around 96 mph. However, over the course of the season his fastball typically sits around 93-94 and tops out at about 97 mph. Good demeanor on the mound. Pitches well under pressure, pitching coaches have said he has ice water running through his veins. Needs to improve his consistency slightly, but otherwise has ace makeup.

[Cityofchampions33]

I chose Buchholz in etrms of most impressive as of yet. But in terms of who I'd keep my list would be Bard, Buchholz, then Bowden.

[example1]

I'm keeping Bowden, then Buchholz then Bard. With the distance between Buchholz and Bard considerably bigger than that between Bowden and Buchholz. Of course, Bard hasn't thrown a public game yet in the pros, so I am open to change that view.

 

I think Bowden is the best pitcher of the three, as far as repetoir, strength, and composure go. He is already this developed and 2 years younger than Buchholz.

[jacksonianmarch]

Of any of the prospects taken between the yankees and the sox last yr, Bard has the highest ceiling. Not just a #1, but he has the potential to be one of the best pitchers in the league. But that is essentially just because of his fastball. As far as the most polished kid from our two teams draft last yr, Chamberlain takes the cake.

 

And you dont hear me chanting about this kid as a top of the line, MLB ready prospect, like I am about Hughes, Sanchez, et al. Consider Chamberlain, Kennedy, and Bard in the same bracket for now. Bard hasnt thrown a professional pitch, while Chamberlain has thrown only in the hawaiian league (46K 3BB in 40IP is still impressive) as well as Kennedy and the like. None of these guys see the bigs in the near future.

 

Essentially, people talk about the three B's, but it really is the 2B's. Bard is just like the guys the yankees took, unproven and lacking any minor league resume.

[scaffolds]

Jackson, Kennedy doesn't belong on this group, kennedy stuff its just ordinary.

[jacksonianmarch]

He has plus offspeed stuff, but his heat is certainly ordinary. This will limit his ceiling. I should have left him out, you are right.

 

Chamberlain on the other hand is at or above Bard's level at this point.

[scaffolds]

I am going to disagree with you again, Bard is a better prospect than Chambarlain and in top of that doesn't have the health issues that Chambarlain has, that's why he went as low as he did.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chamberlain has a better repertoire and if the reports are correct, he was throwing 95-97 in the hawaiian league. Plus he has much better control.

 

At the same time, Chamberlain's problems are linked to his weight. He was as high as 290 in Nebraska this yr and his knees and shoulder felt the strain. He is currently listed as 230. If he stays in the mid 200s, he will be a better pitcher than Bard simply because he is a better "pitcher" at this point. But if that weight creeps up closer to 300, then he wont do us any good as his injury history will creep back in. He certainly has the injury issues, but if he stems that problem, then he'll be solid.

[scaffolds]

First of all i believe that Chamberlain weight problem was in 2004 or 2005 just before he got to Nebraska U not in 2006. I have seen Bard pitch in college and while i haven't seen Chaberlain pitch have talk to people who has and while Chambarlain might hit mid 90's isn't on a consistent basis, Bard does on a regular basis, Chambarlain's stuff and Bard's aren't as close as you might think, its Bard's hands down.

[jacksonianmarch]

Scaff, we might be seeing differing reports then. Chamberlain has impeccable control as evidence by his Hawaii #s (46K 3BB in 40IP). He sat in the 92-94 range in college but was sitting around 95 (topping between 97-98) in the Hawaiian league. He has a plus curve, MLB average slider and a change that is very raw.

 

Bard is a guy who can hit triple digits on a good day, but walks his fair share. Is considered to have "shaky" command that will need to be tuned up. He has no secondary plus pitch at this time and all are in need of refinement due to their lack of consistency. He is a guy who needs his mechanics rebuilt and eventually, he will locate the heat and one of his secondary pitches will come out.

 

Either way, Bard has the arm. Chamberlain has 3 pitches he is comfortable with and can locate 3 of his 4. Bard is not even consistent locating one pitch, but his fastball is so good that if he can locate it and if he can develop an offspeed pitch, he would be devastating.

[jacksonianmarch]

from the sounds of it, Joba is more polished than Bard is. Bard has the fastball. Joba has the offspeed stuff and the location. Both have ace potential, but Bard has the potential to be not just an ace, but a CY contender, if he can can harness it.

[example1]

from the sounds of it' date=' Joba is more polished than Bard is. Bard has the fastball. Joba has the offspeed stuff and the location. Both have ace potential, but Bard has the potential to be not just an ace, but a CY contender, if he can can harness it.[/quote']

 

And that's why the Sox selected Bard when they had the chance to draft Chamberlain. In fact, they must not have liked something about Joba, because they passed up on him again in order to draft Kris Johnson from Witchita State.

[example1]

Just watching the scouting video Joba looks either like Sidney Ponson or Bobby Jenks. I would groom this guy as a closer given that choice. Of course, I could replace Ponson with Brad Penny, in which case the picture would be a little rosier.

[jacksonianmarch]

Chamberlain dropped because of injury/weight concerns. Chamberlain was expected to be a top 10 overall pick prior to the season, but his injury issues scared off a few teams.

[jacksonianmarch]

Just watching the scouting video Joba looks either like Sidney Ponson or Bobby Jenks. I would groom this guy as a closer given that choice. Of course' date=' I could replace Ponson with Brad Penny, in which case the picture would be a little rosier.[/quote']

 

People forget that Ponson was very effective for a few seasons. Ponson had a 3 season span where his BB/9IP was 3 or less, like Joba's is likely to be. One thing that Ponson lacked, even in the minors, was the ability to K people. Ponson had a 7.35K/9IP career minor league total, while in a small sample size, Joba posted 11+K/9IP. The comparison is not there. The comparison with Bartolo Colon fits though. High K/9IP, low BB/9IP power pitcher with a good repertoire.

[a700hitter]

People forget that Ponson was very effective for a few seasons.

Where... at the dinner table?

[jacksonianmarch]

Where... at the dinner table?

 

there too, lol.

[jacksonianmarch]

Joba Chamberlain, 21, RHP

Previously Ranked: N/R

What Others Say: Pinstripes Plus 11th, Baseball America 4th, John Sickels 4th B

 

Physical Ability: Joba Chamberlain is yet another big bodied Yankee hurler. Standing 6’3’’ and listed at 225, Joba has actually been considered too big at times. As you would hope with a guy his size, Joba also possesses a terrific fastball. Joba The Hutt typically pitches in the mid 90s with his fastball and can even get it up to the high 90s at times. In addition to throwing his fastball very hard, Joba has uncanny control and command of the pitch. His repertoire is rounded out with a slider, a curveball, and a changeup. At the moment, none of these pitches is anything to write home about. Fortunately, they aren’t terrible either. The slider has shown the most promise thus far. It will be interesting to see whether the Yankees let him be with that as his breaking ball of choice or try and push him towards the curveball as is the organizational preference. As I’ve alluded to, Chamberlain has struggled with his weight at times. Some feel that his struggles with a knee injury during college can be attributed to carrying too much weight. It remains to be seen how much of a problem that, as well as his triceps tendonitis of the past year, will be in the pros.

 

What Happened in '06: Like just about every other Yankee draft pick in 2006, Chamberlain was an early favorite to go in the first round. In fact, he was projected in the top 10. However, due to the aforementioned injury concerns, which led to poor performance, Joba fell on draft day. Unlike a guy such as Ian Kennedy, Joba did not have much, if any, track record to fall back on as he had only emerged as a legitimate prospect the year prior. Fortunately for Joba he has greater physical talent than Kennedy and once he was signed and allowed to play, he made teams begin to regret their decision to pass on him. Chamberlain’s pro debut was in the resurrected Hawaiian Baseball League where he was probably the league’s best pitcher. While his control wasn’t as good as the 46:3 K:BB ratio would indicate, it was still impressive. More impressive was his command, especially on the occasions where he would fall behind batters only to perfect place a pitch and get opposing hitters to turn hitter’s counts into outs.

 

What Lies Ahead: Chamberlain will most likely begin 2007 in Tampa. I don’t expect him to be long for Tampa. In fact, I hope/think his 2007 will look a lot like Phil Hughes’ 2006. Despite that, I think he’s further away at this point than Phil Hughes was a year ago. In terms of top pitching prospects, Joba is more Mike Pelfrey than Phil Hughes. In other words, he’s going to be able to get at least decent minor league results because he has an overpowering fastball. What will determine how quickly he can be ready is getting one of his secondary offerings, most likely the slider, to the point where he can give batters a different look. Developing those secondary pitches will help him have the means to get outs against quality left-handed batters.

 

Grade: While Clippard lacks stuff, Joba lacks a performance record. While Clippard has never missed a turn in the rotation (hey, more Barry Zito similarities), Joba has injury concerns. Overall, I think they’re fairly comparable pitching prospects and I’m going to err on the side of potential and “tools”. We’ll see how it turns out. Hopefully, Joba makes good on his ability and can give the Yankees some terrific years near the front of the rotation. B

[BSN07]

I think all 3 of them should be untouchables for atleast the next year or so. Just to see what they have. But if I had to pick one to keep out of the three, I would take the chance on Bard. Yes he hasn't pitched any games of matter yet, but like even Jackson said he has the highest ceiling of the three.

 

If I had to trade one it would probably be Bowen. With Bard having the highest ceiling and Bucholz being the teams Minor league pitcher of the year, and voted best curve ball I would find it hard to deal him.

 

But I seriously would consider not trading any of them if there as good as most scouts seem to think. Let them come threw the system and be groomed, and if they turn out to be special then thats awesome, let alone cheaper then going and trying to get FA. The Sox have a good rotation now and a young one to boot, that gives them the option of letting these guys develop in the minors. Next season there will be 3/5 rotation spots filled, unless, I think if Bucholz has a great year at AA he will be given a shot to fill one of them, with the other being filled by a low cost FA. But my crystal ball is at the shop being fixed so I really have no clue.

[elsrbueno]

Jackson-- what's your source on the Chamberlain scouting report you quoted?

[jacksonianmarch]

pinstripe potentials. scout.com's will come out in a week or so.

[jacksonianmarch]

Bosox, you also have to consider who you will have in that rotation, though. Matsuzaka, Beckett, and Papelbon will be there for awhile and you still have Lester. Buchholz has an ETA of mid 08- early 09. Bowden has an 09 ETA. Bard's will likely be later if he stays a starter. You are talking about finding spots for these kids. 1 of the three are likely to fail before they hit AA or while at AA. Another is likely to have trouble latching on at the MLB level. That leaves one out of the 3, IMO that will actually make the club and latch on, if you go by the statistics. The point being, you have a gaping hole in the closers role. You could package one of these kids together with WMP or Hansen or both to nab a closer. You just dont want to make the wrong choice.

[jacksonianmarch]

and for those of you who like to point out my bias, I am a firm believer in AA being the biggest jump in talent in the minors. Therefore, it is a huge hurdle for talent to get hung up on. Once you get by AA, the chances of succeeding in the majors jump significantly.