Yankees and Red Sox come out on top of hot stove season

[jacksonianmarch]

Article by Keith Law on ESPN insider.

 

Yankees, Red Sox reign in offseasonBy Keith Law

Scouts Inc.

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With the bulk of the offseason activity behind us -- save a Randy Johnson trade here and a Jeff Weaver signing there -- let's take a look at which teams did the most to help or hurt themselves and which contracts look like the best and worst deals of the winter.

 

 

Three teams that came out ahead

1. Yankees: In a winter when everyone else was eager to commit lots of dollars to older players, the Yankees managed to stick to short-term commitments, and even flipped Gary Sheffield for three minor league arms with upside. Andy Pettitte was one of the best starters available, and the Yankees got him for two years (one if he declines the player option). Mike Mussina was also one of the best starters available, and the Yankees retained him at what was clearly a below-market salary. And they even dumped Jaret Wright on Baltimore, getting back a useful back-of-the-pen arm in Chris Britton and saving a little cash there as well.

2. Red Sox: The Sox went into the offseason with five major needs and filled three of them. They needed another starter, preferably a No. 3 or better, and landed one in Daisuke Matsuzaka, the best starting pitcher available. They needed a shortstop and landed Julio Lugo, who was the only true everyday shortstop on the free-agent market. They needed a No. 5 hitter, and may have landed one in J.D. Drew, assuming that the issues around his contract and his physical can be worked out. While the Sox added relief pitchers like Brendan Donnelly and J.C. Romero, they still don't have a suitable closer. And another thing the Sox didn't address externally was second base, choosing to go with rookie Dustin Pedroia to try to save some money at one position this year.

 

3. Everyone who stayed out of it: That's not entirely true, as there are a few teams (like the Cardinals) who will be substantially worse off in the short term for not spending money this offseason. But in the long run, the vast majority of the contracts signed this winter are going to turn out poorly. Spending frivolously is never a good strategy, but to do it in one of the poorest free-agent classes we've seen in the last few years is just insane. Teams that held their purse strings taut will be better off down the road, when teams like the Cubs and Giants will be tied in knots by their commitments of this offseason.

 

 

Three teams that took a step back

Also known as, "Teams that eventually will want to pretend the last two months never happened."

1. Orioles: I suppose they'd like to pretend the last 10 years never happened -- or at least their fans would. Needing a major bat or two, the Orioles decided to pour money into their bullpen. They gave closer money to Danys Baez for him to work as a set-up man and gave three years to right-handed specialist Chad Bradford, who was available for peanuts a year earlier. The Orioles have some great, young pitching and a rising star in Nick Markakis, but they'll be lucky to get out of fourth in the difficult AL East.

2. Angels: The Angels gave five years and $50 million to Gary Matthews Jr. -- more on that in a moment -- and then signed Shea Hillenbrand to play first base. Neither one does anything to improve the team for '07; the Angels need to add power, and have an acute need for hitters who get on base. They also added Justin Speier to their bullpen, giving him one of the longest deals (four years) ever for a relief pitcher. There is enough core talent here to win the AL West in 2007, with some potential frontline talent at the top of the farm. But GM Bill Stoneman didn't make his team better, just more expensive.

 

3. Mariners: They gave up two prospects for the broken-down Jose Vidro, then tacked a vesting option onto Vidro's deal. They did nothing to address any of their actual problems, however. There's plenty here for the next GM to work with if he's not too hamstrung by Bill Bavasi's contracts.

 

 

Three best contracts

1. Randy Wolf, Dodgers: This is the sort of deal you'd like to see teams stick to when dealing with pitchers coming off injuries or down years: one year plus a club option. Of course, it takes only one idiot GM to offer a three-year deal and blow your one-plus-option offer out of the water, but in Wolf's case, he wanted to go back to Southern California and left at least one two-year offer on the table. Wolf's upside is as a mid-rotation lefty with a significant ability to miss bats; the risk is that his command might not come back (or doesn't come back quickly) as he recovers from 2005 Tommy John surgery. It's a good gamble for the Dodgers, who have starting pitching depth.

2. Moises Alou, Mets: Another player who spurned at least one two-year offer to take a one-year deal, Alou is a perfect fit for the Mets, who needed a right-handed power bat to replace the departing Cliff Floyd and reduce their reliance on what's left of Shawn Green's career.

 

3. Jason Schmidt, Dodgers: Arguably the best starter available outside of Matsuzaka, Schmidt signed one of the shorter deals given to any starting pitcher -- fewer years than Ted Lilly, Jeff Suppan or Gil Meche received, and the same number of years that Jason Marquis received. And if you're wondering how the Dodgers could have two of the three best contracts of the offseason but not be named one of the offseason's winners, I have two words for you: Juan Pierre.

 

 

Three worst contracts

Also known as, "The most creative ways teams found to waste their money this winter."

1. Barry Zito, Giants: Seven years for a pitcher whose performance and stuff are all headed in the wrong direction. As I've noted before, the only two seven-year contracts handed out to starting pitchers before Zito's were Kevin Brown's (disaster, dumped on the Yankees) and Mike Hampton's (eight years, huge disaster, dumped in one of the more complex deals you'll ever see). Zito's deal also carries an enormous annual salary far out of whack with what he's going to deliver in on-field value. In hindsight, if the Giants were willing to go $18 million per year on a starting pitcher, they should have offered three years and $54 million to Schmidt.

2. Gary Matthews Jr., Angels: Five years, $50 million for a 31-year-old hitter who before 2006 had a career offensive line of .249/.324/.397 in more than 2,400 major league plate appearances. He's a fourth outfielder who's a fringe-average defender in center, making not just starter money but star money.

 

3. Carlos Lee, Astros: I like the addition of Lee's right-handed power bat for Houston in the short term -- the next two or maybe three years -- although by 2010 or so, when he'll have to be moved to a DH spot, it's not going to look so pretty. But given what followed the Lee deal for Houston, it's looking ugly already. Adding Lee meant the Astros weren't willing to go the extra $2 million to retain Pettitte, so the net effect was a step back. They had to give up Jason Hirsh, a pitcher coveted by a number of teams, to get Jason Jennings to fill the vacated spot. And they could still use another starter. The NL Central still stinks, so it's not out of the question that the Astros can contend. But they were a good winter away from putting the division in their back pocket, and it all started to go downhill with the Lee deal.

 

Honorable mentions: Pierre (Dodgers), Alfonso Soriano (Cubs), Marquis (Cubs) … you get the idea. It just wasn't a great winter for teams that went shopping at the Free-Agent Mart.

 

Keith Law, formerly the special assistant to the general manager for the Toronto Blue Jays, is the senior baseball analyst for Scouts Inc.

 

 

 

I agree with him to a degree. I still think that the sox biggest need was bullpen and that went largely unaddressed. Also, if Drew comes out and plays 140 games a yr in this contract, then this offseason is a building block to future prosperity for the sox. If he declines or is injured, then his contract will be a major burden for yrs to come.

[TheKilo]

I also think this article is rather premature as there are 3 months of offseason left.

[EvilDonut]

As I've noted before, the only two seven-year contracts handed out to starting pitchers before Zito's were Kevin Brown's (disaster, dumped on the Yankees) and Mike Hampton's (eight years, huge disaster, dumped in one of the more complex deals you'll ever see).

 

Pedro had a seven year contract. Id say it worked out.

[redsoxrules]

Pedro had a seven year contract. Id say it worked out.

 

yeah but pedro was way better than zito was

[ANiMAL]

seems like the dodgers are doing a good job on one-side of the ball this offseason. id say theyre #3 on best offseason

[BoSox34]

The Cubs have had a great offseason in my opinion. Alfonso Soriano is a huge middle of the lineup threat who should post all-star numbers all season. When you pair Soriano with a healthy D.Lee and a newly re-signed Aramis Ramirez, that's a lethal 3-4-5 combination. They also signed Mark Derosa, Kerry Wood, and Ted Lilly. My prediction is that Lilly will fare very well in the NL central.

[jacksonianmarch]

Soriano's signing is one of the worst signings I have ever seen. His contract will be a bear on that franchise in 3 years. Once his speed goes, he will be Carlos Lee with less discipline.

[BoSox34]

Soriano's signing is one of the worst signings I have ever seen. His contract will be a bear on that franchise in 3 years. Once his speed goes' date=' he will be Carlos Lee with less discipline.[/quote']

 

It'll all be worth it for Cubs fans and Chicago if they can win a championship in the next two or three years of his prime.

[jacksonianmarch]

which they wont. They'll be out of it by august.

[BoSox34]

which they wont. They'll be out of it by august.

 

...better chance than the Yankees. Yeah, I said it.

[jacksonianmarch]

Now that is comedy.

[kreinbihl34]

I'll back that up only because they're in the NL Central.

[jacksonianmarch]

The Yankees will win the east going away this season. Yeah I said it.

[TheKilo]

The Yankees will win the east going away this season. Yeah I said it.

 

That is also comedy.

 

It's always a race, provided the sox don't lose 60% of their starting rotation.

 

But yeah, to say the Cubs have a better shot than the Yankees is asinine at best.

[Cityofchampions33]

Well, a better shot to do what? If it's to win their respective divisions it might be close, but that doesn't eman the Cubs are better than the Yanks.

[TheKilo]

Well' date=' a better shot to do what? If it's to win their respective divisions it might be close, but that doesn't eman the Cubs are better than the Yanks.[/quote']

 

Win the WS.

[jacksonianmarch]

Win the WS.

 

when you sign Jason Marquis for 3 yrs 21mil, then you suck as an organization, and the entire FO should be sodomized with a rusty pole. Nothing says future success like the highest ERA in the NL and huge HR numbers moving to the most HR friendly park at sea level.

[BSN07]

Article by Keith Law on ESPN insider.

 

 

 

I agree with him to a degree. I still think that the sox biggest need was bullpen and that went largely unaddressed. Also, if Drew comes out and plays 140 games a yr in this contract, then this offseason is a building block to future prosperity for the sox. If he declines or is injured, then his contract will be a major burden for yrs to come.

 

 

 

And IF you had a pussy you be a girl... Any fing contract can go that way, instead of picking on Drew and the Sox( which the deal hasn't even been signed) Why don't you go after the Dodgers for Pierre or LAA for Matthews JR. This apparent hard on you have for Drew is old and tiring, get some new material or find a new subject, every god damn thread on here has you bitching about Drew in some form or another. Don't get me wrong Jackson I like your post but for the love of God stop harping on the hole Drew deal it's giving me a migraine.

[jacksonianmarch]

And IF you had a pussy you be a girl... Any fing contract can go that way' date=' instead of picking on Drew and the Sox( which the deal hasn't even been signed) Why don't you go after the Dodgers for Pierre or LAA for Matthews JR. This apparent hard on you have for Drew is old and tiring, get some new material or find a new subject, every god damn thread on here has you bitching about Drew in some form or another. Don't get me wrong Jackson I like your post but for the love of God stop harping on the hole Drew deal it's giving me a migraine.[/quote']

 

BSN. I dont give a flying f*** about the dodgers, and I love the fact that the angels will be burdened with Sarge's old kid for 5 yrs.

 

And yes, every contract has its concerns over injury. But when it comes to JD, that contract for a player who fails a physical and has had multiple seasons cut short by injuries is a MAJOR risk. If his injury history inserts itself into the next 5 yrs and he continues to miss a third or more of every other season, then this offseason will be known as the "yr that JD was signed to that miserable contract." On the flipside, if JD stays healthy and produces, this will be one of the sox best offseasons since signing Ortiz, Mueller, Millar et al in 03, and that is saying something.

[TheKilo]

when you sign Jason Marquis for 3 yrs 21mil' date=' then you suck as an organization, and the entire FO should be sodomized with a rusty pole. Nothing says future success like the highest ERA in the NL and huge HR numbers moving to the most HR friendly park at sea level.[/quote']

 

The only signing they've had this offseason that I liked was re-signing Aramis Ramirez.

[Fried Neckbones]

The only signing they've had this offseason that I liked was re-signing Aramis Ramirez.

 

I wonder how much of their offseason insanity is due to the Sweet Lou pickup as manager? Lou does not like losing, he does not like rebuilding, and he does not like developing talent. He likes winning with big leauge players. It seems that the Cubbies looked around the NL Central, saw that the 'Stros are another year older, the Cards didn't really improve, and decided, "Hell, let's go balls out and try our hardest to win this year, and the future of the club be damned." When you are the last of the three "cursed" teams left, who gives a crap about the future?

 

EDIT: I also really like the majority of the Sox's moves this offseason. They had some major needs in thin areas of FA talent and, other than finding a closer (which they still have time to do), addressed them all with their #1 target for each. Nice job. If all falls right, this is going to be a DAMN good team.

[example1]

I wonder how much of their offseason insanity is due to the Sweet Lou pickup as manager? Lou does not like losing, he does not like rebuilding, and he does not like developing talent. He likes winning with big leauge players. It seems that the Cubbies looked around the NL Central, saw that the 'Stros are another year older, the Cards didn't really improve, and decided, "Hell, let's go balls out and try our hardest to win this year, and the future of the club be damned." When you are the last of the three "cursed" teams left, who gives a crap about the future?

 

EDIT: I also really like the majority of the Sox's moves this offseason. They had some major needs in thin areas of FA talent and, other than finding a closer (which they still have time to do), addressed them all with their #1 target for each. Nice job. If all falls right, this is going to be a DAMN good team.

 

Yup. The Cubs are making a really strong run at it. They should have been competing the last few years, with guys like Wood, Prior and Zambrano under contract. They had a very good team in 03 but it just kind of fizzled away. I suppose much of that flair and power came out in Sammy Sosa's urine, but still.

 

I think the sox moves this offseason have been great and I think their priorities are spot on. How can you NOT go after the best SP available, one who will anchor your staff for 6 years. Who cares if their moves maybe kept them from getting anyone else, there isn't anyone available anyway. If Drew is healthy I like the move... and by healthy I mean able to play 130 games. I think with WMP the Sox can afford to give Drew time off or even to deal with an injury. I have faith in the Sox FO's view of the Drew signing, as I think Drew is a more polished, atheletic Trot Nixon. I think the power that he had last year was not steroid induced (although he may have done roids early in his career) and I honestly think FOs look at things like that nowadays. The last thing you want is an albatross of a contract to a bloated superstar like Sammy Sosa or Jason Giambi, only to have those players collapse on you when their either dislocate their arm trying to run out of the batter's box or have to give up the roids and get all depressed and s***.

 

If a 130 game JD drew can get 28 HR, 95 RBI and a .400 OBP then I'm happy, especially if he plays defense even at the same level as Trot (who I consider pretty good defensively... at least for balls he could get to).

 

Lugo is going to run a lot of balls down and be a solid SS. I like most of the pitching additions, including Pineiro (who I don't like as a starter but is fine as a 6th starter, inning eater, long relief or closer). I think that of the pitchers they have brought in they will have 2-3 who will have decent seasons.

[jacksonianmarch]

The last thing you want is an albatross of a contract to a bloated superstar like Sammy Sosa or Jason Giambi, only to have those players collapse on you when their either dislocate their arm trying to run out of the batter's box or have to give up the roids and get all depressed and s***.

 

If a 130 game JD drew can get 28 HR, 95 RBI and a .400 OBP then I'm happy, especially if he plays defense even at the same level as Trot (who I consider pretty good defensively... at least for balls he could get to).

 

Lugo is going to run a lot of balls down and be a solid SS. I like most of the pitching additions, including Pineiro (who I don't like as a starter but is fine as a 6th starter, inning eater, long relief or closer). I think that of the pitchers they have brought in they will have 2-3 who will have decent seasons.

 

Giambi hasnt exactly been a bear the last 2 yrs. Actually, he was likely our offensive MVP for a significant portion of the season (yes, over Jeter), prior to his tearing a wrist tendon diving for a ball. He was the lone consistent power source when Matsui and Sheff went down and ARod pulled his disappearing act.

 

As for Drew getting 28HRs, good luck with that. He hit 20 in the entire 2006 season in a park that is much more friendly on lefties than Fenway. And as for Lugo running down balls, if you wanted your SS to run down balls, you would have kept AGon. Lugo got that contract based on 1.5 seasons in TB. He's a career .277 hitter with a .340OBP, both upgrades over AGon, but they want his .300+ .370+ line he had in TB before being dealt last yr. Jury is out on him too.

 

Like I said before, If Drew stays healthy, then this offseason is a fantastic, yet expensive one. If Drew bombs out, then every other move save Matsuzaka is going to be lumped in as a failure.

[elsrbueno]

Giambi hasnt exactly been a bear the last 2 yrs. Actually, he was likely our offensive MVP for a significant portion of the season (yes, over Jeter), prior to his tearing a wrist tendon diving for a ball. He was the lone consistent power source when Matsui and Sheff went down and ARod pulled his disappearing act.

 

As for Drew getting 28HRs, good luck with that. He hit 20 in the entire 2006 season in a park that is much more friendly on lefties than Fenway. And as for Lugo running down balls, if you wanted your SS to run down balls, you would have kept AGon. Lugo got that contract based on 1.5 seasons in TB. He's a career .277 hitter with a .340OBP, both upgrades over AGon, but they want his .300+ .370+ line he had in TB before being dealt last yr. Jury is out on him too.

 

Like I said before, If Drew stays healthy, then this offseason is a fantastic, yet expensive one. If Drew bombs out, then every other move save Matsuzaka is going to be lumped in as a failure.

 

How is the entire offseason contingent on Drew again?

 

Sure, he may be a $70 million mistake, but do you think the deal's being held up because they haven't picked out what color tie he's going to wear at the press conference? The Red Sox are fighting to get protection from Drew's fraile body.

 

Besides, Manny's back in town and he's never had adequate protection in Boston. All he does is hit, hit, hit. Lugo's a better offensive player than Gonzalez and he's at least comprable to Renteria and Cabrera. The lineup WILL be stronger than last season even without Drew. Meanwhile, the Sox receive a defensive upgrade at second while maintaining gold glove caliber Mike Lowell and an improving Kevin Youkilis.

 

The pitching staff is stronger by virtue of Beckett adjusting to the AL, Matsuzaka and Papelbon being better than the stiffs the Sox had in the rotation last season, and Wakefield healthy.

 

The only concern with the Red Sox right now is the bullpen, and like I've said that'll sort itself out. The bottom line is that you absolutely have to spin everything into a pro-Yankee standpoint, and the Drew signing (I'll admit, that's the difference between you and me) seems like the worst move the Sox have made. Of course, that determination will depend on what the actual deal is.

[jacksonianmarch]

How is the entire offseason contingent on Drew again?

 

Sure, he may be a $70 million mistake, but do you think the deal's being held up because they haven't picked out what color tie he's going to wear at the press conference? The Red Sox are fighting to get protection from Drew's fraile body.

 

Besides, Manny's back in town and he's never had adequate protection in Boston. All he does is hit, hit, hit. Lugo's a better offensive player than Gonzalez and he's at least comprable to Renteria and Cabrera. The lineup WILL be stronger than last season even without Drew. Meanwhile, the Sox receive a defensive upgrade at second while maintaining gold glove caliber Mike Lowell and an improving Kevin Youkilis.

 

The pitching staff is stronger by virtue of Beckett adjusting to the AL, Matsuzaka and Papelbon being better than the stiffs the Sox had in the rotation last season, and Wakefield healthy.

 

The only concern with the Red Sox right now is the bullpen, and like I've said that'll sort itself out. The bottom line is that you absolutely have to spin everything into a pro-Yankee standpoint, and the Drew signing (I'll admit, that's the difference between you and me) seems like the worst move the Sox have made. Of course, that determination will depend on what the actual deal is.

 

the reason why the Drew signing is the swing factor is because of the cash but also the longevity. Not many teams are willing to absorb a 14 mil a yr salary and sit him on the bench or rid themselves of the player. He will be the sox RF for 5 years, whether at 100 games a yr or 140. Now if they add an opt out clause, say after yr 2, then this would be one hell of an offseason. But I dont like the idea of adding a bear contract to an oftinjured player for long term cash and years. It is Bernie Williams all over again. His 12 mil did not allow us a run at Beltran. His declining presence did not allow us to find a better option, and we are the richest team. But if they are able to protect themselves, with not just reducing guaranteed $$ but adding injury protection, then I'd be all for the signing and say kudos theo. But if they dont and Drew stops the sox from making runs at younger, better FAs in 2-3 yrs, then this signing will be the blame.

 

As far as the rest of the moves, they did well. Lugo is no saviour, but he is an upgrade over AGon offensively and will add some speed to the top of the order. He was the best available. Matsuzaka was a great sign lux tax wise. The pen is very unspectacular and the closers role is up for grabs, but none of their pen moves are long term so nobody will look at a s*** contract in the bullpen in 2 yrs and curse this offseason. So yeah, I am the Drew signing away from giving the sox a golfer's clap. If they find a closer out of the rubble, if the pen solidifies under veteran leadership, then I'll give a standing O.

[BudLight]

"The last thing you want is an albatross of a contract to a bloated superstar like Sammy Sosa or Jason Giambi, only to have those players collapse on you when their either dislocate their arm trying to run out of the batter's box or have to give up the roids and get all depressed and s***.

 

If a 130 game JD drew can get 28 HR, 95 RBI and a .400 OBP"

 

While I can agree that Boston has addressed several of their "holes" this off-season with the best players available for those positions, your classification of Giambi as a bloated superstar with an albatross contract is unfounded.

 

If Drew can get 28 HR (has only happened once in his career), 95 RBI (has only happened once in his career) and have a .400 OBP (very likely)........

 

Giambi on the other hand 28 HR (seven times), 95 RBI (seven times), .400 OBP (seven times)

[jacksonianmarch]

good pickup. So the last thing he wants is a bloated contract to an injury prone superstar. Why does he want Drew again?

[elsrbueno]

good pickup. So the last thing he wants is a bloated contract to an injury prone superstar. Why does he want Drew again?

 

If Drew is signed for $70 over 5 years with no protection, I'll agree it was a bad move. However, that hasn't happened yet. I think even you can agree that this deal has been delayed because the Sox haven't agreed to guarantee this guy $70 million. I firmly believe that this thing would have been done weeks ago if there wasn't some language issues.

 

That having been said, the Sox have made bad moves before and recovered from them. I don't see making one bad move as an indicator of the entire offseason.

 

Overall, the rotation will be better, the lineup will be better (even if Drew loses his power he'll be an improvement over Nixon last year), the defense will be comprable if not better, and the bullpen is a work in progress.

 

At this stage of the game I'd call the offseason a success for the Red Sox.

[BudLight]

Bueno

 

I agree, even if the Drew deal falls apart, the Sox have a serviceable option in WMP in the short term. As for the bullpen, one shouldn't overlook the lack of a closer even with their much improved starting rotation. If they don't have a reliable closer, the starters will get overworked in close games which could lead to problems late in the season. I don't think Epstein or Cashman are done yet this off-season.

[example1]

Giambi hasnt exactly been a bear the last 2 yrs. Actually, he was likely our offensive MVP for a significant portion of the season (yes, over Jeter), prior to his tearing a wrist tendon diving for a ball. He was the lone consistent power source when Matsui and Sheff went down and ARod pulled his disappearing act.

 

You clearly don't mind having a roided out freak on your team. Take a look at that guy Jacksonian, then tell me he's not taking anything. Watch his "fun" patterns, where he sucks for a long time and looks depressed, then, magically, his pupils dialate and he hits 10 bombs in 2 weeks. Yankee fans always go hush.

 

As for Drew getting 28HRs, good luck with that. He hit 20 in the entire 2006 season in a park that is much more friendly on lefties than Fenway. And as for Lugo running down balls, if you wanted your SS to run down balls, you would have kept AGon. Lugo got that contract based on 1.5 seasons in TB. He's a career .277 hitter with a .340OBP, both upgrades over AGon, but they want his .300+ .370+ line he had in TB before being dealt last yr. Jury is out on him too.

 

Lugo is considerably faster than A-Gon, that's all I was saying.

 

Like I said before, If Drew stays healthy, then this offseason is a fantastic, yet expensive one. If Drew bombs out, then every other move save Matsuzaka is going to be lumped in as a failure.

 

Yeah, if Lugo hits .330 with all-star numbers his acquisition will be deemed a mistake if Drew isn't healthy