Other options besides JD?

[BSN07]

Yes he still has time to prove me wrong, I just have a hard time agreeing with most people about young NYY players. That lineup( I know I keep bringing it up) is probably the best one in the league to hit in if your a youngster. Theres no other lineup out there that can offer you that protection and take the stress of producing off of you. Thats why I say wait to judge them once they have left there fortress of solitude. His D is better then some, but I still would be cautious.

 

I have even said it about Jeter too. He is a solid player and has been great for baseball since he's been here, but put him in a lineup thats ot the NYY and I bet you would be surprised at how his numbers would fall off. Not that this will ever happen, because I would imagine that he will finish his career as a NYY.

[jacksonianmarch]

Jeter was in another lineup. It was called the injury riddled 2006 yankee lineup featuring missed games by Matsui, Sheff, Giambi, Cano, and even a few by ARod. And man did he suffer /sarcasm.

[elsrbueno]

but my point is' date=' if he is in the best lineup in baseball, and he is supposed to be pitched to, why did he have such great walk numbers? It is past anomaly here.[/quote']

 

Past anomaly?

 

Cabrera's OBP's in 2005:

 

AA: .322

AAA: .309

 

2006 he had a hot month in AAA then was called up into the best lineup in baseball. He didn't strike out a ton because he was given a lot of pitches to hit, thus his high average (.280 was higher than any of his averages in the minors in 2005)

 

His .357 OBP in a full season seems like the exception, not the norm. Now, I understand that you have to put a positive Yankee spin on everything, but this guy's a 4th outfielder at best.

[TedWilliams101]

I agree that Melky is a little over-hyped. I think he may very turn into a good contact hitter with slightly above average fielding in corner OF, but little power. Last time I checked, most teams don't need a power hitting corner OF. On most teams, Melky would be a good choice. I would expect his walks to rise a bit, but his ave. to decline a bit. I certainly wouldn't call him a huge prospect or new comer, but I wouldn't say he will suck either. He can be valuable to a lot of teams.

 

Bosox, do you seriously believe Jeter would not play well on another team? Jeter is one of the best Defensive SS in baseball and he is also probably the best hitting SS. He is up there with the best in contact and ave, he walks, he has great discipline, great eye, average power, and has great speed and steals. He led off the yanks for a while, and was great at it. O ya, and he's increadibly clutch. Don't they call him "Mr. October"... ya, thats right.

 

I certainly hate the Yankess, but calling Jeter anything short of amazing is absolutly wrong. He is the face of the Yankess, their captain, and very much soo their hero. Sounds like a HOF to me. Last time I checked, HOF caliber players don't tend to be the result of a loaded lineup.

[jacksonianmarch]

Past anomaly?

 

Cabrera's OBP's in 2005:

 

AA: .322

AAA: .309

 

2006 he had a hot month in AAA then was called up into the best lineup in baseball. He didn't strike out a ton because he was given a lot of pitches to hit, thus his high average (.280 was higher than any of his averages in the minors in 2005)

 

His .357 OBP in a full season seems like the exception, not the norm. Now, I understand that you have to put a positive Yankee spin on everything, but this guy's a 4th outfielder at best.

 

in 500ABs the kid posted a .357 OBP that was heavily walk influenced. It isnt like a 100PA 15BB performance. He made incredible contact and was incredibly patient in his time in NY. It was no anomaly.

[elsrbueno]

in 500ABs the kid posted a .357 OBP that was heavily walk influenced. It isnt like a 100PA 15BB performance. He made incredible contact and was incredibly patient in his time in NY. It was no anomaly.

 

From Merriam-Webster:

 

Main Entry: anom·a·ly

Pronunciation: &-'n?-m&-lE

Function: noun

Inflected Form(s): plural -lies

1 : the angular distance of a planet from its perihelion as seen from the sun

2 : deviation from the common rule : IRREGULARITY

3 : something anomalous : something different, abnormal, peculiar, or not easily classified

 

Melky Cabrera in 2006 showed an on base percentage far above his typical performance. When Brady Anderson hit 50 homers in 1996 it was an anomaly.

 

Until Cabrera proves that he can do that on a consistent basis, I consider Melky Cabrera (or ANY rookie, take a look at MY historical post record if you don't believe me) suspect. Cabrera is no exception.

 

I also stand by my assertion that in another lineup he doesn't hit nearly as well. When you've got Melky Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Jason Giambi... etc in the same lineup, as a pitcher you're going to give him a LOT of good pitches to hit.

 

On the flip side, guys of All Star caliber (like the people surrounding Melky Cabrera) are given the green light in favorable (3-1, 3-0, 2-1, 2-0) counts. As a manager, I'm giving Melky the take sign every time because I want his ass on base for the big guys.

 

In Pittsburgh, he'd settle in with another bunch of crappy hitters and revert to his crappy hitting ways. Not that he was a tremendous hitter in the first place: he's still a corner outfielder with a .391 slugging percentage and a .748 OPS despite his above average OBP (for him).

[jacksonianmarch]

you arent listening and I'd rather not continue to try. Hits, power. Those are things that could be lucky and we have seen people fluctuate in those many times. But show me someone who has had a "lucky" walk season and I will show you many who havent.

[elsrbueno]

you arent listening and I'd rather not continue to try. Hits' date=' power. Those are things that could be lucky and we have seen people fluctuate in those many times. But show me someone who has had a "lucky" walk season and I will show you many who havent.[/quote']

 

I never once said the dude was lucky. You're the one who isn't listening.

 

I'm saying Torre probably threatened to send him to the minors if he swung at a 3-0 or 3-1 pitch because they wanted him on base for the big sluggers.

 

He did a good job at taking pitches and getting on base in 2006. What I'm saying (and what I've been saying all along) is that if he were in a different lineup it would be a different story.

 

Even if he maintains a .360ish OBP for his entire career he still doesn't have the other skills to be a full time major leaguer especially at a corner infield spot. He's a 4th outfielder at best.

[jacksonianmarch]

I never once said the dude was lucky. You're the one who isn't listening.

 

I'm saying Torre probably threatened to send him to the minors if he swung at a 3-0 or 3-1 pitch because they wanted him on base for the big sluggers.

 

He did a good job at taking pitches and getting on base in 2006. What I'm saying (and what I've been saying all along) is that if he were in a different lineup it would be a different story.

 

Even if he maintains a .360ish OBP for his entire career he still doesn't have the other skills to be a full time major leaguer especially at a corner infield spot. He's a 4th outfielder at best.

 

I dont think that argument will hold up anywhere in baseball at all. Rookies are characteristically overzealous. Melky had no pressure once Sheffield was deemed out for the yr, so there was no pressure to move him back down. So are you saying that Cano was told to take pitches 2 yrs ago when he was a rookie? Cause he sure as hell didnt, when he walked 16 times in 540PA's.

 

Plus, a mark of a good hitter is to be able to be patient enough and confident enough to wait out the opposing pitcher, knowing that you can hit him. Most rookies have the mentality that they better show what they have and they may only get one pitch to hit, so they swing balls out. He didnt. He took a ton of pitches, fouled off numerous others, and was patient enough to work out walks. To say that it was because Torre didnt let him loose enough is a poor argument and an easy way to try and downgrade an opponent. Plus, Torre doesnt know what he is doing 3/4 of the time, to say that he maximized Cabrera's ability by holding the reigns is giving clueless joe a lot of credit.

[jacksonianmarch]

also, if he were in a different lineup, he may have been pitched around more than he was. In the yankee lineup, for the most part, he was considered early on as the easy out. So he was pitched to exclusively. If you have a rookie come up, be targetted as the easy out, and still come away with 57 walks, then you have to have an intrinsic sense of the zone and hence why he walked so much.

[elsrbueno]

also' date=' if he were in a different lineup, he may have been pitched around more than he was. In the yankee lineup, for the most part, he was considered early on as the easy out. So he was pitched to exclusively. If you have a rookie come up, be targetted as the easy out, and still come away with 57 walks, then you have to have an intrinsic sense of the zone and hence why he walked so much.[/quote']

 

You pitch around batters who can hurt you, not Melky Cabrera. The dude's had terrible slugging percentages throughout his short career and has shown nothing to prove that he can hit for respectable power.

 

Even if Cabrera went to the Pirates, I'd rather pitch to him than Bay, Sanchez, Castillo, or Nady.

 

He did a decent job in 2006. I allowed you that. But he's a career 4th outfielder at best.

[TedWilliams101]

Plus, Torre doesnt know what he is doing 3/4 of the time, to say that he maximized Cabrera's ability by holding the reigns is giving clueless joe a lot of credit.

 

Jackson, are you kidding me? Torre is one the best managers in baseball. Possibly one the best in history. Not only does he have the pressure of driving a team to the WS victory every year, but he has to build chemistry of a team made of all-stars. Thats tough and Torre has shown that he can do it as good as anyone.

[jacksonianmarch]

was one of the best managers in baseball ted. I love Joe Torre. I think we dont win anything in the late 90s. I still think he is a fantastic ambassador for the game and a great ego-melder. But the one thing the guy has lost is his ability to make the right in game moves. He was even taped asleep in the dugout during one of the games. Without Zimmer, he is in trouble. Zim was the aggressive one.

[TedWilliams101]

I think almost any manager out there can make the right in-game moves. Its the stuff they do off the field that tends to make them stand out.

[Plumpamania]

but my point is' date=' if he is in the best lineup in baseball, and he is supposed to be pitched to, why did he have such great walk numbers? It is past anomaly here.[/quote']

 

Cabrera never EVER showed the OBP skills in his minor league career. It could either be an ephiany or an anomolly. My guess is the latter.

[Plumpamania]

was one of the best managers in baseball ted. I love Joe Torre. I think we dont win anything in the late 90s. I still think he is a fantastic ambassador for the game and a great ego-melder. But the one thing the guy has lost is his ability to make the right in game moves. He was even taped asleep in the dugout during one of the games. Without Zimmer' date=' he is in trouble. Zim was the aggressive one.[/quote']

 

Joe Torre is the worst game managers to ever step foot in the bench.

[Plumpamania]

in 500ABs the kid posted a .357 OBP that was heavily walk influenced. It isnt like a 100PA 15BB performance. He made incredible contact and was incredibly patient in his time in NY. It was no anomaly.

 

So his entire minor league career was just a bluff? Are you serious. Cabrera will be nothing more than a 4th OFer. Someone compared him to Jose Cruz JR, and they, in my opinion are very well on the right idea, except Cruz at least at one point was a switch hitter.

 

I don't see him becoming anything more than Jason Michaels. Michaels also has insane OBP skills, and a good arm in the OF but was a career 4th OFer because he had zero pop in his bat.

[jacksonianmarch]

So his entire minor league career was just a bluff? Are you serious. Cabrera will be nothing more than a 4th OFer. Someone compared him to Jose Cruz JR, and they, in my opinion are very well on the right idea, except Cruz at least at one point was a switch hitter.

 

I don't see him becoming anything more than Jason Michaels. Michaels also has insane OBP skills, and a good arm in the OF but was a career 4th OFer because he had zero pop in his bat.

 

Michaels career got off track when he couldnt stay on the field. Also, Melky is a switch hitter.

[Plumpamania]

I was wrong on Cabrera being only a LHH, I had read an article on Torre wanting Cabrera to give up RHH.

 

Michaels is still in the prime of his career...and Cabrera's OBP skills last year were an anomolly.

[jacksonianmarch]

I was wrong on Cabrera being only a LHH, I had read an article on Torre wanting Cabrera to give up RHH.

 

Michaels is still in the prime of his career...and Cabrera's OBP skills last year were an anomolly.

 

Here are the guys who had 56 or more BBs in 2005 followed by their 2006 totals

 

Beltran (95)

Jenkins (56)

Vizquel (56)

F. Lopez (81)

C. Lee (58)

Burnitz (22) only had 300ABs

Peralta (56)

Eckstein (31) in 35 less Games

Young (48) -

Chavez (84)

Bill Mueller (17) played only 32 games

Mauer (79)

Lugo (39) 200 less PA's than 05

Guerrero (50)

Furcal (73)

Varitek (46) in 30 less games

Green (46)

Matsui - injured almost all season

Martinez (71)

Inge (43)

Floyd (29) down 53 games

M. Cabrera (86)

Figgins (65)

Giles (62)

A. Jones (82)

Castillo (56)

Posada (64)

Roberts (55)

Utley (63)

Lawton - played in 11 games last yr

Ibanez (65)

Wright (66)

Teixeira (89)

Delgado (74)

Kent (55) in 30 less games

Zaun (41) in 35 less games

Klesko missed entire season with injury

Dellucci (28) 200 less PAs, used as a backup

Jeter (69)

Overbay (55)

Gonzalez (69)

Sheffield missed all but 2 months of season

Counsell (31) in 200 less ABs

Hafner (100)

Johnson (110)

Ramirez (100)

Konerko (60)

Wilkerson (37) missed 60 games due to injury

Glaus (86)

Ensberg (101)

Lee missed most of season with wrist injury

Sexson (64)

Berkman (98)

ARod (90)

Edmonds (53) down 32 games from 05

Ortiz (119)

Bay (102)

Pujols (92)

Burrell (98)

Helton (91)

Giambi (110)

Dunn (112)

Abreu (124)

Giles (104)

 

Of the 64 players above, all but 3 players were at or above 50BBs in 2006, were injured and missed a significant portion of time, or were relegated to backup duty. Here are the three that dropped.

 

For analysis, here is Melky's BB rate. 10.9% (BB rate is BB's/PA's)

 

Michael Young - TONS of PA's. His BB average in 2005 was 7.9%. His 2006 average was 6.5%. Career high BB rate is still 3% lower than Melky's rookie yr.

 

Brandon Inge - in 2005, he had 30 more BBs than he did in his previous career high BB total. 2005 was his 5th yr in the league. His BB rate was 9.2% in 2005. His BB rate in 2005 was 7.4%. His career high BB rate is still a whole 1.7% lower overall than Melky's.

 

Shawn Green - Green was on a major downswing in his career. His 2005 numbers were on a consistent slide from a career high of 93BB in 2002. His 2005 BB% was 9.6%. His 2006 BB% was 7.8%. This is consistent with the slide he was on. 2004 numbers were 10.7%. Consistent slide because he wasnt that good anymore, so he was being pitched to.

 

Overall, 46 players surpassed 50. 49 players on the above list played a full season. Hence, the chances are 94% that he would surpass 50BB's if given a full season. I would say that passing 50BBs is not a fluke, especially since he is a rookie.

[Plumpamania]

I'll go with the years before this one year.

[jacksonianmarch]

I'll go with the years before this one year.

 

the stats dont matter? I'll take 94% bro.

[Plumpamania]

Not to mention that Shawn Green has been on a STEEP decline since what 2003? Brandon Inge has a dropping OPS each of the last two years, and has barely broken an .800 OPS.

 

Michael Young was never a patient hitter. Ever.

[Plumpamania]

the stats dont matter? I'll take 94% bro.

 

STATS?!

 

.294/.347/.422/.769

 

That's his career minor league line. I wouldn't call him a MLB OFer by 4 years in the minors off of that line.

[jacksonianmarch]

minor league stats bro. What about the full major league stats.

[Plumpamania]

One year. We are talking about OBP skills. He was average at best in the minors.

 

With a line of:

 

.294/.347/.422/.769 vs .278/.355/.384/.739

 

Why should I believe that he will continue his pace of OBP that is higher than anything he did in the minors minus one year of A ball of a .383 OBP?

 

Why?

[TheKilo]

One year. We are talking about OBP skills. He was average at best in the minors.

 

With a line of:

 

.294/.347/.422/.769 vs .278/.355/.384/.739

 

Why should I believe that he will continue his pace of OBP that is higher than anything he did in the minors minus one year of A ball of a .383 OBP?

 

Why?

 

I like you already. Nice argument man.

 

Just don't be surprised if Jacko doesn't respond. he doesn't use stats unless they go in his favor.

 

I personally think Melky (along with a few other Yankees) are going to do some reverting to the mean and do so in a big way. The book will be out on Melky because he won't surprise anyone anymore as a rookie, and I think catchers will find a way to get him out more efficiently.

[ORS]

Here are the guys who had 56 or more BBs in 2005 followed by their 2006 totals

 

Beltran (95)

Jenkins (56)

Vizquel (56)

F. Lopez (81)

C. Lee (58)

Burnitz (22) only had 300ABs

Peralta (56)

Eckstein (31) in 35 less Games

Young (48) -

Chavez (84)

Bill Mueller (17) played only 32 games

Mauer (79)

Lugo (39) 200 less PA's than 05

Guerrero (50)

Furcal (73)

Varitek (46) in 30 less games

Green (46)

Matsui - injured almost all season

Martinez (71)

Inge (43)

Floyd (29) down 53 games

M. Cabrera (86)

Figgins (65)

Giles (62)

A. Jones (82)

Castillo (56)

Posada (64)

Roberts (55)

Utley (63)

Lawton - played in 11 games last yr

Ibanez (65)

Wright (66)

Teixeira (89)

Delgado (74)

Kent (55) in 30 less games

Zaun (41) in 35 less games

Klesko missed entire season with injury

Dellucci (28) 200 less PAs, used as a backup

Jeter (69)

Overbay (55)

Gonzalez (69)

Sheffield missed all but 2 months of season

Counsell (31) in 200 less ABs

Hafner (100)

Johnson (110)

Ramirez (100)

Konerko (60)

Wilkerson (37) missed 60 games due to injury

Glaus (86)

Ensberg (101)

Lee missed most of season with wrist injury

Sexson (64)

Berkman (98)

ARod (90)

Edmonds (53) down 32 games from 05

Ortiz (119)

Bay (102)

Pujols (92)

Burrell (98)

Helton (91)

Giambi (110)

Dunn (112)

Abreu (124)

Giles (104)

 

Of the 64 players above, all but 3 players were at or above 50BBs in 2006, were injured and missed a significant portion of time, or were relegated to backup duty. Here are the three that dropped.

 

For analysis, here is Melky's BB rate. 10.9% (BB rate is BB's/PA's)

 

Michael Young - TONS of PA's. His BB average in 2005 was 7.9%. His 2006 average was 6.5%. Career high BB rate is still 3% lower than Melky's rookie yr.

 

Brandon Inge - in 2005, he had 30 more BBs than he did in his previous career high BB total. 2005 was his 5th yr in the league. His BB rate was 9.2% in 2005. His BB rate in 2005 was 7.4%. His career high BB rate is still a whole 1.7% lower overall than Melky's.

 

Shawn Green - Green was on a major downswing in his career. His 2005 numbers were on a consistent slide from a career high of 93BB in 2002. His 2005 BB% was 9.6%. His 2006 BB% was 7.8%. This is consistent with the slide he was on. 2004 numbers were 10.7%. Consistent slide because he wasnt that good anymore, so he was being pitched to.

 

Overall, 46 players surpassed 50. 49 players on the above list played a full season. Hence, the chances are 94% that he would surpass 50BB's if given a full season. I would say that passing 50BBs is not a fluke, especially since he is a rookie.

Sorry you wasted your time typing that out bro, because it's a pile of garbage in regards to the discussion.

 

Where your analysis is deficient is that it shows us nothing about trends in these players BB-rates. Many of the guys on the list have a high BB-rate year in and year out. Melky demonstrated an IsoD of ~.050 at about every level in the minors prior to last year. That trend is what makes last year an anomaly. If he can do it more than once, then it will become a part of his skillset. I don't understand why you can't get this.

[BSN07]

I'm the one who compared him to a Jose Cruz JRlite.

 

As far as Jeter goes, I said he was a great player, and has been great for baseball since he has been here, but I just believe that he wouldn't be as good a hitter without NYY lineup. Not a terrible hitter just not as good. And his D was great threw the championship years and a up to early 2000's, but recently it has been on the decline( only to be expected with age) and him winning thbe GG this year was a travasty in my mind, he not only didn't deserve it but was only given it because of his name is Derek Jeter and thats the name the coaches remember, not taking the time to look at the stats and the actual players glove work over the year. If they had Jeter would not have been close to winning as AGON would have run away with it.

 

Torre is overratted. He's a good manager, but most of that has to be credited to the team that has been built for him. Hell I can win the at poker all the time if I get the best cards, but it's when you don't have the cards(players) and you can win is when you have skill. Torre did a nice job threw the championship years, since then he has become just a face in the dugout. He has been given a lineup that can produce atleast 900 runs a year, so he sits back hopes they score alot. When that doesn't work it's usally bad news, he tends to burn the bullpen up now, but thats can't all be blammed on him, he has been given a great lineup, but has also been given a rotation over the last few years thats featured old has beens and injury rittled guys who can barely make it to 6th inninng.

[hoke3182]

who cares about melky, jeter, torre and every other yankee.they are all pu$$y$