What Are The Odds Of Seeing The DTrain?

[HeadOfSoxNation]

I know Lauria said that Cabrera and Dontrelle were staying put...but you've gotta think that Theo is at least looking at the possibility of bringing Dontrelle to Boston. With the Marlins liquidation at the beginning of the season, I've gotta think that Lauria saying that was just a way to drive up the price for Willis to astronomic proportions. What are the odds that there's a package that the Sox would put together for him? Seeing that that 5th starter position is as huge a question mark as Anderson Cooper's sexuality...they've gotta be looking at least a bit outside the organization. Dontrelle is one of the only guys I'd give up Lester/Hansen in a deal for. I wouldn't do it for Zito (Who, I guess, may be going to New York again for Lastings Milledge...talks have apparently started again...)

 

We've gotta face it...Wells is done. We've gotta do SOMETHING because our number 5 is a huuuuuuuuge diceroll start after start after start.

[jsinger121]

how about a longshot....Theo will not part with the type of talent it will take to get Willis.

[HeadOfSoxNation]

how about a longshot....Theo will not part with the type of talent it will take to get Willis.

 

What do you think it'd take in addition to Hansen or Lester? I know he wouldn't do both, but one combined with something else decent doesn't seem like too out there, with how much the Marlins want prospects and want to cut payroll.

[jsinger121]

Ellsbury, Delcarmen, Michael Bowden

[schillingouttheks]

Pedroia.

[example1]

Screw it. Its a 5 starter. If Wakefield is himself, Beckett, Schilling and Clement are themselves, then get a guy who goes .500 and we're good.

 

That said, I would probably give up Lester for him, I wouldn't give up Hansen, Pedroia or Ellsbury for him.

 

Hansen has the ability to be a dominant closer. He throws 98. Lester doesn't.

 

when I hear comparisons between lester and mulder or lester and Pettitte it makes me thing, wow, that guy could be really good. But mulder and Pettitte aren't Pedro good. They aren't Schilling good. Willis is already Pettitte and Mulder good, but he's younger.

 

I do worry about his inconsistency, but that is up to Theo to judge, not me.

 

Overall, I would give up one of our best prospects, but not more than one.

[example1]

Plus, wouldn't D-Train look good in the sox' home red and white? A little baggy, hat slightly askew, falling all over the place while the sox fans go wild. That's a pretty picture. He would add nicely to the dynamic already formed on the team.

[Don Orsillo]

Dontrelle Willis

7 G - 43.2 IP - 47 H - 27 R - 1 HR - 14 BB - 30 SO - 1 W - 3 L - 107.4 P/GS - .276 BAA - 5.15 ERA

 

Dontelle Willis has a record of one win and three losses coming into his next outing. He has an ERA of 5.15 through five games this season. Thirty strikeouts to only fourteen walks. Opponents are hitting .276 against Willis. He's averaged 107.4 pitches in each of his outings so far this season.

[schillingouttheks]

I remember seeing a quote from someone, and I forget who it was. Perhaps it was ksushi, or CrespoBlows, but whoever it was, I credit this with.

 

Think of it this way, you can trade Lester because D-Train is basically what the Sox hope Lester will be.

[Beckett95]

id be interested in possibly Lester and Delcarmen for D-Train. No one knows how good Lester is going to be. Willis is a proven All-Star and a winner. Not to mention hes only 24.

[jsinger121]

id be interested in possibly Lester and Delcarmen for D-Train. No one knows how good Lester is going to be. Willis is a proven All-Star and a winner. Not to mention hes only 24.

 

The thing is it you won't get him for just those 2 guys.....Try like another 2-3 prospects added on to that.

[Beckett95]

I remember seeing a quote from someone, and I forget who it was. Perhaps it was ksushi, or CrespoBlows, but whoever it was, I credit this with.

 

Think of it this way, you can trade Lester because D-Train is basically what the Sox hope Lester will be.

 

exactly, hes they want Lester to be one of the top lefties in their rotation, but unlike Lester, Willis is proven himself in the MLB. The only difference in the 2 is salary and Willis is 2 years older.

[Beckett95]

The thing is it you won't get him for just those 2 guys.....Try like another 2-3 prospects added on to that.

 

I dont know about that. With Willis wanting a huge contract along with a new stadium, theres a good chance he wont be in Florida for long. Also, some of the trades they have made in the offseason make Delcarmen and Lester a legit possibility. We got Beckett and Lowel for Hanley (one of our top 3 prospects) and Anibal (a top 10 prospect). Lesters a top 3 prospect, if not our best and Delcarmens a top 5 prospect. I think Willis will be traded by the deadline to someone, and the Sox will be in the race.

[TheRivernator]

Willis would need to be dealt for an already established, young star plus prospects. No way it gets done without Paps...

[jsinger121]

And we know the Sox won't trade Paps so end of story

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Yea, I'd say Paps is the only guy that's 100% off the table, in the Sox mind. Obviously I'm not going to package all the other guys together, but Paps, at least IMO, is the only untouchable.

[castigs850]

Willis would need to be dealt for an already established, young star plus prospects. No way it gets done without Paps...

why will they require an established player? they didnt get one for beckett and they are rebuilding so isnt that about taking chances on talent that doesnt get paid?

 

i think lester and delcarmen could work

[jsinger121]

why will they require an established player? they didnt get one for beckett and they are rebuilding so isnt that about taking chances on talent that doesnt get paid?

 

i think lester and delcarmen could work

 

Ya Lester and Delcarmen plus a few others

[castigs850]

maybe 1 even two more but probably not any type of valued prospect the main stucture of lester and delcarmen would be what gets it done

[jsinger121]

It would be 3-4 good to very good prospects to get the deal done.

[example1]

Willis would need to be dealt for an already established, young star plus prospects. No way it gets done without Paps...

 

You mean a young star like sanchez and hanley? C'mon, they're not expecting a young travis hafner, they just want a nice return for their loss.

 

I think it would take something like Lester and Elsbury or Pedroia to get him. that would be a red sox first round and second round pick, right? That's not insignificant, especially since they are players who have already been invested in by the Red Sox.

 

The assumption that the TRADE LESTER FOR WILLIS crew (largely including myself, I think) is making is that it is incapable of being a better LHP than Willis. I don't think anyone really agrees that is true. It is POSSIBLE that Lester could be better. He could be Santana or Carlton or (except for the size) RJ. There are examples of successful LHPs who are better than Willis.

 

Willis is a second tier starter (so far). I see him as similar to Zito or Pettitte in his prime. Potentially very good, but streaky, and not absolutely dominant. He has great stuff though.

Perhaps the Sox have reason to believe that Lester will be as good, if not better than that. He is supposed to have pretty good control, right?

[SCM33]

Why would you want to trade anything of value for Willis at this point?

 

I understand he is playing with an awful team, but how does the team effect his BAA or ERA. Good pitchers may lose a decision due to lack of offense, or errors made behind him, but in the month of May so far hes given up 30 hits and walked 6 in 14 innings.

 

He always kind of reminded me of Hideo Nomo. Nomo was very good early in his career becuase of such a unique pitching style, but when hitters became comfortbale with him, he became an average pitcher. If you compare their first three seasons, they are very similar with great success. But Nomo is now at 123-109 with a 4.21 for his career.

http://baseball-reference.com/w/willido03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nomohi01.shtml

 

After three seasons Nomo was 43-29 with a 3.33 ERA

After three seasons Willis was 46-27 with a 3.32 ERA

 

Talk about similarity.

[TheRivernator]

You mean a young star like sanchez and hanley? C'mon, they're not expecting a young travis hafner, they just want a nice return for their loss.

 

I think it would take something like Lester and Elsbury or Pedroia to get him. that would be a red sox first round and second round pick, right? That's not insignificant, especially since they are players who have already been invested in by the Red Sox.

 

The assumption that the TRADE LESTER FOR WILLIS crew (largely including myself, I think) is making is that it is incapable of being a better LHP than Willis. I don't think anyone really agrees that is true. It is POSSIBLE that Lester could be better. He could be Santana or Carlton or (except for the size) RJ. There are examples of successful LHPs who are better than Willis.

 

Willis is a second tier starter (so far). I see him as similar to Zito or Pettitte in his prime. Potentially very good, but streaky, and not absolutely dominant. He has great stuff though.

Perhaps the Sox have reason to believe that Lester will be as good, if not better than that. He is supposed to have pretty good control, right?

 

You arent getting my point. Beckett was an injury prone RHer that they were basically cutting their losses on plus sending an underachieving (not any more) 18 mil player in a package. Willis is younger and he is a power lefty who won 20 games last yr. He is a guy who you not only build a rotation around, but he has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. Plus, their team is loaded with potential, they would need a young guy in return who has already shown some of his potential at the big league level. If they are going to sell their team to a new fan base whether it be Vegas or San Antonio, they will need to have a face they can recognize and a guy they can count on. Willis, even though he has started slow, is a guy who can do that. Lester? Del Carmen? Nope, they have shown nothing on the big league level. They'd want Papelbon, period....

[ORS]

It's starting to look like Florida should have included D-Train in the offseason firesale....

 

IP     ERA    H/9    BB/9    K/9

46.1   6.22   11.1   3.11   5.83

 

And it's not like he started slow and is turning it around. His best start this year was on opening day (5 IP, 1 H, 0 R), and his worst two were his last two. His stock is slipping.

[TheRivernator]

He will have a low 3's era by the time the season ends. Unfortunately, he'll still have a losing record....

[HeadOfSoxNation]

Why would you want to trade anything of value for Willis at this point?

 

I understand he is playing with an awful team, but how does the team effect his BAA or ERA. Good pitchers may lose a decision due to lack of offense, or errors made behind him, but in the month of May so far hes given up 30 hits and walked 6 in 14 innings.

 

He always kind of reminded me of Hideo Nomo. Nomo was very good early in his career becuase of such a unique pitching style, but when hitters became comfortbale with him, he became an average pitcher. If you compare their first three seasons, they are very similar with great success. But Nomo is now at 123-109 with a 4.21 for his career.

http://baseball-reference.com/w/willido03.shtml

http://www.baseball-reference.com/n/nomohi01.shtml

 

After three seasons Nomo was 43-29 with a 3.33 ERA

After three seasons Willis was 46-27 with a 3.32 ERA

 

Talk about similarity.

 

Wow, that's a pretty nasty comparison...for some reason, I don't think when Nomo was "on" and when Willis is "on", you can really compare the two. I know that seemingly doesn't make sense, but Willis just strikes me as far more dominant whenever things are working than Nomo ever did.

 

And I understand your BAA and ERA and what not...but I think confidence in your team goes a long way when it comes to your stats as a picture. I can only imagine in Dontrelle's mind, he feels like he's gotta go out and make perfect pitches time after time after time...because he knows he's not going to get any run support out of his team. If he could go out there, relax, and just try to get outs, I think he'd be a lot better. If you can just rely on your teammates to make plays and score some runs, that allows you as a pitcher to just go out there, relax, and get outs. I don't think he has that kind of luxury in Florida.

[YazYaz04]

trading papelbon, which will never happen, would be the yankees trading us a-rod, which I hope to god never happens.

 

bottom line that would awful... paps is going to be a great pitcher, starter or closer. hell he already is

[example1]

It would be 3-4 good to very good prospects to get the deal done.

 

I know you are Theo's Assistant and all, but why do you keep pushing this point as if its an obvious fact. The fact is that IF Florida were to try to deal with the Red Sox and IF the Sox wanted to deal with Florida, then Boston would probably NOT set its offer as 3-4 tremendous prospects to get it done, but would start with Lester plus one or two middle tier guys, and possibly work up to two top prospects, but they wouldn't go higher than that and if florida wanted Lester bad enough, they would take it. They clearly wanted Hanley and Anibel; perhaps they want Lester that badly.

 

The sox know what Lester is worth, and so do many other teams. He was the unnamed pitcher in the A-rod/Manny deal for crying out loud, and that was 3 seasons ago.

 

Nobody thought the sox would land Beckett for three prospects, except for the Sox and the Marlins FO. The marlins would want good players they can afford, not proven mlb talent necessarily.

[example1]

You arent getting my point. Beckett was an injury prone RHer that they were basically cutting their losses on plus sending an underachieving (not any more) 18 mil player in a package. Willis is younger and he is a power lefty who won 20 games last yr. He is a guy who you not only build a rotation around, but he has the potential to be a franchise cornerstone for years to come. Plus, their team is loaded with potential, they would need a young guy in return who has already shown some of his potential at the big league level. If they are going to sell their team to a new fan base whether it be Vegas or San Antonio, they will need to have a face they can recognize and a guy they can count on. Willis, even though he has started slow, is a guy who can do that. Lester? Del Carmen? Nope, they have shown nothing on the big league level. They'd want Papelbon, period....

 

Many people say Lester could be better than papelbon. Yes, yes, they are unproven, but so was Albert Pujols and Manny Ramirez, Pedro Martinez and King Felix. Some teams fear the unproven (yankees) and others know it is a fact of life (everybody else).

 

You are so wrong its not even funny about the Marlins "cutting their losses" getting rid of Beckett. Cutting their losses? How about cutting their chance of having a big loss by letting him go to FA after this season? That makes a little more sense. Jack Mackeon left there saying Beckett was the best of the group, and clearly superior to Burnett. He won a WS MVP only 2.5 seasons ago. Cutting their losses... ha. That's like saying Texas was cutting its losses when it sent A-Rod to NY. Whawt a joke.

 

Cutting their losses on a 25 year old stud starting pitcher. C'mon man. You're smarter than that.

[redsoxrules]

if the sox wanted to get willis , wouldnt now be the good time to go after him? since he is struggling you might be able to get him without giving up to much at the moment