May 6th vs. Baltimore

[Cocos Disciples]

Game Time: 7:05 ET

TV: NESN

Radio: 850 WEEI

Starters:

 

Tim Wakefield (1-4, 3.89) vs. Erik Bedard (4-1, 3.58)

 

Closer Jonathan Papelbon has pitched the last three days. Setup man Mike Timlin has gone the last two. Translation: What better night could there be for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to take the mound?

Wakefield has been known to eat innings when the occasion calls for it throughout his time with the Red Sox, and this could be the latest case in point.

 

"I guess you're supposed to knock on wood," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "But he'll go out there and do his thing."

 

Wakefield was reunited with catcher Doug Mirabelli in his last start against the Yankees, and this time, the battery has actually had time to do some prep work.

 

The Red Sox rode a bases-clearing double from David Ortiz en route to a 6-3 victory over the O's in the opener of this three-game set.

 

The Orioles are the only team Wakefield has beaten this season, and that victory came back on April 9 at Camden Yards.

 

Courtesy of http://boston.redsox.mlb.com

[TheRivernator]

Game Time: 7:05 ET

TV: NESN

Radio: 850 WEEI

Starters:

 

Tim Wakefield (1-4, 3.89) vs. Erik Bedard (4-1, 3.58)

 

Closer Jonathan Papelbon has pitched the last three days. Setup man Mike Timlin has gone the last two. Translation: What better night could there be for knuckleballer Tim Wakefield to take the mound?

Wakefield has been known to eat innings when the occasion calls for it throughout his time with the Red Sox, and this could be the latest case in point.

 

"I guess you're supposed to knock on wood," said Red Sox manager Terry Francona. "But he'll go out there and do his thing."

 

Wakefield was reunited with catcher Doug Mirabelli in his last start against the Yankees, and this time, the battery has actually had time to do some prep work.

 

The Red Sox rode a bases-clearing double from David Ortiz en route to a 6-3 victory over the O's in the opener of this three-game set.

 

The Orioles are the only team Wakefield has beaten this season, and that victory came back on April 9 at Camden Yards.

 

Courtesy of http://boston.redsox.mlb.com

 

Bedard is tough and should be a good matchup vs the sox.

 

Food for thought, the sox are only hitting .231 against LH pitching thus far this season. The sox are 3-6 vs lefty starters this yr, but the sox hit Bedard well last yr. He was 0-1 with a 6+ era in 2 starts vs the sox in 2005.

[ORS]

Bedard is tough and should be a good matchup vs the sox.

 

Food for thought, the sox are only hitting .231 against LH pitching thus far this season. The sox are 3-6 vs lefty starters this yr, but the sox hit Bedard well last yr. He was 0-1 with a 6+ era in 2 starts vs the sox in 2005.

Bedard is off to a hot start, and the Sox have been even more futile against top-flight lefties (0-3 vs. Kazmir and Lee). I'm glad that it's at least somebody they have had some success against because I'd be outright pessimistic if that weren't the case.

[Cocos Disciples]

Sox Lineup should look something like this:

 

Youkilis

Loretta

Ortiz

Manny

Lowell

Pena

Mirabelli

Mohr/Harris

Gonzalez

[riverside sluggers]

Here's hoping that Wake's knuckle is dancing, and he gets the run support the Sox starters have been getting this homestand from a surging Sox offense. This homestand the Sox are batting a robust .367 avg with RISP, uptick from .232 avg in the month of April.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Erik Bedard (5 games vs. Boston, 1-2 record with a 6.39 ERA---Career at Fenway Park in 2 games, 1-1 record with an 8.71 ERA)

Kevin Youkilis, 0 for 5, Walk

Mark Loretta --

David Ortiz, 2 for 7 (.286 avg) RBI, 3 Walks, 2 Ks

Manny Ramirez, 3 for 11 (.273 avg) 3 RBIs, 4 Ks

Mike "Mr. Double" Lowell --

Wily Mo Pena --

Trot Nixon, 1 for 3 (.333 avg) K

Doug Mirabelli --

Alex Gonzalez --

///

Dustan Mohr, 0 for 2

Jason Varitek, 1 for 10 (.100 avg) 2 RBIs, 3 Walks, 4 Ks

 

Tim Wakefield (38 games vs. Baltimore, 12-11 record & 4 saves with a 3.97 ERA---Career at Fenway Park in 218 games, 64-58 record & 13 saves with a 4.31 ERA)

Brandon Fahey --

Melvin Mora, 10 for 33 (.303 avg) 2 Doubles, 2 HRs, 5 RBIs, Walk, 8 Ks, 2 SBs

Miguel Tejada, 16 for 53 (.294 avg) 3 Doubles, 5 HRs, 9 RBIs, 2 Walks, 10 Ks, 2 SBs

Jay Gibbons, 8 for 30 (.267 avg) 3 HRs, 4 RBIs, 5 Walk, 6 Ks

Ramon Hernandez, 8 for 21 (.381 avg) 2 Doubles, 2 HRs, 7 RBIs, 2 Walks, 3 Ks

Kevin Millar, 3 for 7 (.429 avg) 2 Doubles, RBI

Luis Matos, 5 for 20 (.250 avg) Triple, 2 HRs, 4 RBIs, Walk, 5 Ks, SB

Chris Gomez, 9 for 31 (.290 avg) 2 Doubles, Triple, HR, RBI, Walk, 3 Ks, SB

Nick Markakis --

///

Jeff Conine, 4 for 30 (.133 avg) Double, 5 RBIs, 8 Walks, 6 Ks

Corey Patterson, 0 for 6, 2 Ks, SB

[ORS]

Let this rule the day....

 

http://users.sdccu.net/hoggy/images/kb.jpg

 

Be the ball, Timmy, be the ball.

[jsinger121]

Sox Lineup should look something like this:

 

Youkilis

Loretta

Ortiz

Manny

Lowell

Pena

Mirabelli

Mohr/Harris

Gonzalez

 

 

There is no reason to sit Nixon when Coco is still out.....If Tito has that lineup today its basically giving the Orioles two automatic outs at the bottom of the order. Even though Bedard is a lefty I would still play Nixon.

[Buckeye]

Here's hoping that Wake's knuckle is dancing, and he gets the run support the Sox starters have been getting this homestand from a surging Sox offense.

 

Run support will definitely be the key. Lowell's hot right now. Any bets on his run of doubles continuing tonight?

[Ray10]

I think that Wakefield is finally going to break out of his slump in this one and pitch well against the O's but it's important that the Sox get up on the O's early in this one and give Wakefield some good run support. It's going to be a good game and the start time is kinda weird 7:05pm on a weekend.

[GhostofMalzone]

Run support will definitely be the key. Lowell's hot right now. Any bets on his run of doubles continuing tonight?

 

Weather will also be a factor, if its cold?, the knuckle won't dance as much.

Mirabelli should also make a difference in Wakes confidence.

[riverside sluggers]

I think that Wakefield is finally going to break out of his slump in this one and pitch well against the O's but it's important that the Sox get up on the O's early in this one and give Wakefield some good run support. It's going to be a good game and the start time is kinda weird 7:05pm on a weekend.

 

There's no slump he's in, the only slump bothering him has been the run support. Mirabelli back is also a big lift to avoid entourage of passed balls. As much as I stood behind Bard, having Mirabelli back is key for Wake this season. His 1-4 record is skewed when you see his 3.89 ERA and .221 opposing batting avg

 

since doomsday in Texas (5 starts)

15 Runs (10 ER) in 35.2 innings

[yeszir]

http://www.tomifobia.com/gallery_september/pix/dead_bird.jpg

[ksushi]

That picture is wonderful. Thats great.

[yeszir]

Every game thread needs a dead bird in it.

[Cityofchampions33]

Weather will also be a factor, if its cold?, the knuckle won't dance as much.

Mirabelli should also make a difference in Wakes confidence.

 

Isn't it the wind direction that effects it? I never knew the temperature would effect it, because it always seems to be cold here and he can still make it dance.

[RedSoxRooter]

I totally thought this was a 1pm game... I call a Mirabelli HR.

[ksushi]

When its not windy, a knuckle ball does better in the warm weather. If its windy though, it doesn't matter what temperature its at, its gonna be filthy. I've had some good times throwing knuckle balls in the wind. When its blowing toward you on the mound, its so much fun to throw.

[Cityofchampions33]

Yeah, when I'm foolin around at my practices, I can never get it to not spin, I don't know I think my release is wrong. But that really is the ticket. If you can get a nasty knuckle you can pitch well into your 40's and beyond, and you don't have to pitch hard or have crazy stuff.

[GhostofMalzone]

The humidity and the heat rising from the ground make the knuckle ball dance. It has no spin so wind would just push the ball around. (not dance) A hot humid day with no wind is

perfect for a knuckle ball pitcher.

[a700hitter]

The humidity and the heat rising from the ground make the knuckle ball dance. It has no spin so wind would just push the ball around. (not dance) A hot humid day with no wind is

perfect for a knuckle ball pitcher.

There are so many theories about the effect of weather conditions on the knuckleball. I wonder if there has been any reliable scientific study.

[GhostofMalzone]

When its not windy, a knuckle ball does better in the warm weather. If its windy though, it doesn't matter what temperature its at, its gonna be filthy. I've had some good times throwing knuckle balls in the wind. When its blowing toward you on the mound, its so much fun to throw.

 

from The Knuckleball Handbook

 

"Objects moving through air produce drag. Air doesn't want to slide along solid surfaces very well, but air readily slides over pockets of air moving in other directions. This is the key to the knuckleball.

 

The stitches on a baseball act like the air dam underneath the front of your car. The air dam pushes the air aside and forms a swirl ("vortex") of air that moves in all kinds of directions around all the car parts hanging under there. Without the air dam, the air would want to drag across all those parts and add drag.

 

 

 

The stitches on a baseball act to push the air flow away from the leather surface just enough to form a tiny swirl of air just behind them, which most of the air happily slides past. Where the airflow moves across smooth surface, it can't move so fast. Knowing your high school science, you know that air moving across a surface produces a lower pressure than air moving not so fast on the same surface. An airplane wing works that way: Air pushed aside by the curve on top has to move fast to meet up with the air moving along the bottom, so pressure is lower on top and the wing has lift. Low pressure draws the object towards it, so wherever the lowest pressure is on that object from moment to moment, that's where it will want to drift towards. This is known as the Magnus effect. However, since the stitches are so small and acting on such a heavy object, this effect is minimal on a baseball. The airflow across smooth surface at one point and stitches at another is uneven in speed and strength, so it trips and triggers shifts in the formation of the turbulence behind that ball. What most affects the movement of a baseball is the size, shape, and location of the wake behind it, which causes enough drag to determine the path of the ball. Rapid rotation allows this wake to fill, keeping it relatively small, but being established in a particular location behind the ball, it may develop some lift, as on a four-seam fastball, slightly less as on a two-seamer (which doesn't present as many seams to keep this wake as small), or some drag to one side as with a curve ball. This is greatly apparent on a rapidly rotating ball, as you see here:

 

 

 

This ball is rotating rapidly from right to left across the top, and it appears that this is pumping air across the top, driving the wake downward, and filling the space behind the ball with smooth-flowing air. That's an easy way to understand it.

 

The action of the knuckleball, however, takes into account the fact that some stitches are moving towards the flow of air in front, and others are moving away, at a very slow speed. The fact that the stitches move around the ball in quite a complex curve on a knuckleball and the ball may rotate at different rates in different ways causes these swirls behind the ball to change size and direction, form and disappear, and move location on the ball, producing changing locations and strengths of low pressure that really can't be predicted. The wake behind a knuckleball at various points in flight may look like these:

 

 

 

 

 

It's fast rotation that can partially counteract gravity. A hard-thrown fastball rotating front to back over the top produced lift just behind and slightly above the center of the ball, tending to hold it up so gravity doesn't drop it so fast. A ball with little, if any rotation doesn't generate that lift, and it produces a larger wake, so it naturally falls away, maybe a foot or more. This explains the drop of a knuckleball (and similarly, the forkball or split-finger fastball).

 

The air pressure around the outside of the ball is greatest, so that's where the airflow is tripped and shifted to deform the large wake behind the ball. It's thought by some that this is enough to kick the ball this way and that, but the little amount of pressure there does not explain some balls suddenly "hitting a wall" and diving hard. Wind tunnel views as you see above show that it's the deformation of the low-pressure turbulence behind the ball that knocks it around. Because of the low rotation, the ball already wants to fall away, but if this vortex suddenly swells, it can cause the ball to suddenly brake and cut hard off-line. There is no other way to explain the unpredictable and drastic darting of a five-ounce sphere propelled at speeds of 60 mph or better.

 

It's also said that the ideal rotation of a knuckleball is one half turn. Others have said one quarter turn. The problem with either of those is this does not take into account the end points that this measurement is taken: release to front edge of plate, or to a point first within reach of the bat, or the catcher's mitt? Also, considering the complexity of the curve of the stitches around the ball, any shift of the angle of rotation will produce an entirely different presentation of the stitches to the airflow, producing an entirely different action. Furthermore, what if you want to just get the ball to sink a few inches at the last moment, which maximizes the effectiveness of any pitch? How do you orient the ball and how much do you rotate it and in what direction? On top of that, if you were so good at throwing this that you could exactly reproduce some so-called "ideal" rotation, you now have a predictable and therefore eminently hittable pitch.

 

What is observed in the lab as a theoretical ideal may not translate well to real-world situations.

 

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Now, there's one effect that nobody talks about that I've observed that explains why a non-rotating knuckleball may still swoop all over the place. I call this the Ferris Wheel Effect.

 

Ride one and notice that although you always face forward, the air comes at you from above as you rise up, then it shifts to the front as you reach the top, then from below as you ride down the front.

 

A non-rotating knuckleball, thrown slow in a big arc, "sees" the wind from slightly above the front-center, then directly in front, then slightly below front-center. This movement of the "relative wind" (as skydivers call it) along the front of the ball will naturally produce shifts in where and how those stitch-produced swirls ("vortices") are produced and therefore how the wake is shaped and sized. It's known by wind tunnel tests that only a small rotation of a knuckleball can produce a huge change in this wake, so practiced knuckleball pitchers who can keep the spin off experiment with different orientations of the ball in their hands to produce the ideal action for them personally. Some settle on a "horseshoe" facing front, others prefer the point where the seams come closest together, and others try variations on those.

 

I have no hard figures, but it seems that a thrown ball begins to react to the wind at speeds around 50 mph or so. Non-rotating balls thrown at, say 90, have much less time to move much. The tradeoff seems to be around 70 mph, fast enough for some Little Leaguers to try their hand at one at major-league distances. You can see how helpful it may be to intentionally change speeds on your knuckleballs. Throwing some in the high 70s and low 80s will cause them to move little, but they'll still likely shudder and shake enough to knock that very small sweet spot off-line enough to make a clean hit all the harder. However, if it doesn't move at all, it's essentially a BP fastball,which may make it all-too easy to hit deep. If you have an insufficient number of them sinking the way you want (sinking being the best way to miss the bat) your option's there to change velocity of each pitch on your own, further adding to the batter's confusion. There is something to be said for having the command of the knuckleball so as to produce a lot of strikes and produce enough difference from one to another to have a good day on the mound, whether the ball does it all on its own, or if you have some say in what it does.

 

 

It has been found, though, that if the ball rotates slightly clockwise or counter-clockwise and the stitches are aligned properly from the start, there may be some lift produced to follow, producing a ball that actually corkscrews! I've thrown them-- tough to do all the time, to say the least. This may be what Hoyt Wilhelm called it his "spinner". It rotates about an off-center axis pointing generally towards the plate, gradually sinking on the way in, making it relatively easy to catch and to throw for strikes but completely unhiuttable except with blind luck.

 

Also throwing into the wind produces more air speed. Over the same distance, the ball may move a LOT more, compressing its action into a much shorter distance. A REAL catcher's nightmare!"

[TheRivernator]

I was always told that the key to a knuckleball is a mild spin towards the end of the pitch to make it dive. A knuckler that truly knuckles the entire time is called a homerun. At least that is what I heard from Niekro....

[ORS]

http://www.tomifobia.com/gallery_september/pix/dead_bird.jpg

Dead bird, dead bird, dead bird........

 

On a plate nonetheless, gotta love that.

[TheRivernator]

I am gonna go against the grain here. Wake is 5-3 vs the O's over the last 4 yrs with an era in the low 4s. The sox have trouble with lefties and are facing a good one in Bedard. What does this mean? I am calling for a high scoring game. The winner will score double digits in runs....

[ORS]

I was always told that the key to a knuckleball is a mild spin towards the end of the pitch to make it dive. A knuckler that truly knuckles the entire time is called a homerun. At least that is what I heard from Niekro....

If you can get that spin to be a forward tumble then yes, it will improve the dive a little. However, any non-spinning ball is going to have significant dive at the plate due to the acceleration of gravity and no magnus force in the opposite direction.

 

Wake's KB usually comes in at ~65 mph, which is ~95 ft/s. Figure the distance traveled to be ~55 ft from the release point, meaning it takes the pitch about 0.58 seconds to get to the plate. The acceleration of gravity is -32 ft/s per second, so it is dropping ~19 ft/s at the plate.

[TheRivernator]

If you can get that spin to be a forward tumble then yes, it will improve the dive a little. However, any non-spinning ball is going to have significant dive at the plate due to the acceleration of gravity and no magnus force in the opposite direction.

 

Wake's KB usually comes in at ~65 mph, which is ~95 ft/s. Figure the distance traveled to be ~55 ft from the release point, meaning it takes the pitch about 0.58 seconds to get to the plate. The acceleration of gravity is -32 ft/s per second, so it is dropping ~19 ft/s at the plate.

 

I agree. The thing that made the knuckler so impossible to hit was that nobody could predict which late spin it would take and hence it makes guys look foolish. Also, they show the slow mo replays of his pitches coming into the plate and you can see the minor half rotation that the ball makes as it goes to the plate and it moves in that direction. I have only faced 2 knuckleballers in my career, and they werent very good, so I cannot attest to it from personal experience aside to say that a bad knuckleball is like great BP. Something about the lack of spin makes the balls go farther if you hit them flush....

[ORS]

I agree. The thing that made the knuckler so impossible to hit was that nobody could predict which late spin it would take and hence it makes guys look foolish. Also, they show the slow mo replays of his pitches coming into the plate and you can see the minor half rotation that the ball makes as it goes to the plate and it moves in that direction. I have only faced 2 knuckleballers in my career, and they werent very good, so I cannot attest to it from personal experience aside to say that a bad knuckleball is like great BP. Something about the lack of spin makes the balls go farther if you hit them flush....

That's because a fly ball has backspin. When you hit a FB that has it's own backspin, the backspin the bat puts on the ball is in the opposite direction, which reduces the amount of spin you can put on the ball. When the ball comes in with no rotation, you get maximum backspin, with creates lift. This is why hanging curves go even further because they are rotating in the direction of the backspin you are putting on the ball.

[TheRivernator]

That's because a fly ball has backspin. When you hit a FB that has it's own backspin, the backspin the bat puts on the ball is in the opposite direction, which reduces the amount of spin you can put on the ball. When the ball comes in with no rotation, you get maximum backspin, with creates lift. This is why hanging curves go even further because they are rotating in the direction of the backspin you are putting on the ball.

 

are you a physics major?

[ORS]

are you a physics major?

I got into my Jr. year as a physics major, but just switched to Construction Engineering for a few of reasons. One, that is where my background/experience is. Two, I need to go to work full-time now and finish up at night now that me and my wife had our second kid. Three, and most important, I realized it was only headed toward a job in academia. The research being done on lasers and particle physics is interesting, but completely tedious and not at all what I envision myself doing.

[TheRivernator]

I hear ya man. I hated physics and I thought the majority of the teachers in that subject were not really pushing the envelope as far as creating beneficial advances rather than creating something that is interesting but of no benefit in this day and age aside from the continuation fo knowledge. The one good thing about physics, though, is that a good general knowledge and understanding of that field will translate well into most any field....