2006 PECOTA projections

[example1]

So, baseballprospectus.com has released its PECOTA projections for all MLB players. due to copywrite concerns and the fact that it's a subscription site I'm not too anxious to post a link. Also, its in excel format (as far as I can tell).

 

One thing I will post though is Dustin Pedroia's projection. His 2005 projection was VERY high, due to his lack of major league experience and his very good numbers in the minors for a short period of time.

 

That being said, can anyone interpret these numbers for me? I understand what most of the numbers mean, and can find links for those I don't understand, but I'm wondering if the numbers projected are MLB level numbers. It does say MLB under League, which seems to imply MLB playing time but I'm not sure.

 

In any case, I'll try to post the numbers to the best of my ability below:

PA   R    2B  HR  RBI  BB   AVG OBP SLG  EQOBP  VORP Defense  
551  75  36  12   68   47  .299 .365 .458   .370     33.6   (2B)+3        

Comparables: Gary Sheffield, Ron Hunt, Marcus Giles

 

Are they talking about him playing for the Sox? That wouldn't seem right, as this is a relatively MONSTER projection for a 22 yr old secondbaseman/SS.

 

can anyone help with this?

[Manny Goes Boom]

No interpretations from me, but that would be awesome to see out of him this year.

[ORS]

Since PECOTA is a BP projection system, you should be able to find articles about what the values mean in their archives. I'm not too familiar with PECOTA since I don't subscribe there. Most of the BP stuff I refer to is the free stuff on the DT cards and in the statistical reports.

[example1]

Since PECOTA is a BP projection system, you should be able to find articles about what the values mean in their archives. I'm not too familiar with PECOTA since I don't subscribe there. Most of the BP stuff I refer to is the free stuff on the DT cards and in the statistical reports.

 

No, I get that stuff ORS. Thanks though. I can figure out what the stats mean without much difficulty, but I was wondering if anyone could tell or knew whether they were assuming these numbesr as projections for MLB, or whether they are MLB averages based on projected AAA stats. Generally, I wonder how projection systems work in that sense.

[ORS]

No, I get that stuff ORS. Thanks though. I can figure out what the stats mean without much difficulty, but I was wondering if anyone could tell or knew whether they were assuming these numbesr as projections for MLB, or whether they are MLB averages based on projected AAA stats. Generally, I wonder how projection systems work in that sense.

I wasn't clear enough, sorry. What I meant was that an archived article would detail the context of the values, which is what you are looking for. ZiPS and James both project for the MLB level, I'm not sure about PECOTA.

[example1]

I wasn't clear enough, sorry. What I meant was that an archived article would detail the context of the values, which is what you are looking for. ZiPS and James both project for the MLB level, I'm not sure about PECOTA.

 

Alright, thanks. I'll poke around and see what I can find on that front.

[BoSox Rule]

All PECOTA projections are for all professional levels, but the numbers are major league equivalents.

[example1]

All PECOTA projections are for all professional levels, but the numbers are major league equivalents.

 

So those projections are assuming he would get those numbers at the MLB level and that he will likely get the listed amount of playing time with the big club? That's pretty cool.

 

Those numbers look like clear rookie of the year numbers to me. Especially that VORP, as I believe they project him to have the 5th highest VORP on the sox, just ahead of Varitek. Maybe I'm over interpreting or over optimistic.

[BoSox Rule]

No, PECOTA doesn't expect him to get 551 PA's with the Red Sox. They expect him to get 551 PA's between Pawtucket and Boston, and the numbers he is projected to put up are his numbers in Boston in addition to his numbers in Pawtucket (not raw numbers, what the major league equivalent would be. Like for example, .300/.400/.500 in Pawtucket might be .280/.360/.450 in Boston. Those aren't the exact MLE's of PAW to BOS but it's an example.)

[Rdsxmbnt]

ok thanks for explaining BSR

[seabeachfred]

So, baseballprospectus.com has released its PECOTA projections for all MLB players. due to copywrite concerns and the fact that it's a subscription site I'm not too anxious to post a link. Also, its in excel format (as far as I can tell).

 

One thing I will post though is Dustin Pedroia's projection. His 2005 projection was VERY high, due to his lack of major league experience and his very good numbers in the minors for a short period of time.

 

That being said, can anyone interpret these numbers for me? I understand what most of the numbers mean, and can find links for those I don't understand, but I'm wondering if the numbers projected are MLB level numbers. It does say MLB under League, which seems to imply MLB playing time but I'm not sure.

 

In any case, I'll try to post the numbers to the best of my ability below:

PA   R    2B  HR  RBI  BB   AVG OBP SLG  EQOBP  VORP Defense  
551  75  36  12   68   47  .299 .365 .458   .370     33.6   (2B)+3        

Comparables: Gary Sheffield, Ron Hunt, Marcus Giles

 

Are they talking about him playing for the Sox? That wouldn't seem right, as this is a relatively MONSTER projection for a 22 yr old secondbaseman/SS.

 

can anyone help with this?

I can E-1. Pedroia is going to he a hell of a player; one of the best in the league. I have watched this kid only on TV and I am sold. He has a solid bat, can field very well, runs with abandon and plays with a passion rarely seen anymore. This guy will be a star for us. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this kid hits around 300 when he gets to the Majors as a rookie.

[riverside sluggers]

example, if you could. I was wondering if possible you could post some of the other predictions they have come up with for our boys?

[example1]

Who would you like to see RS?

 

I'll provide a few below:

 

code:--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Player       	POS	BA	OBP	SLG	HR	EqA	VORP	FRAR
Jason Varitek	C	0.271	0.361	0.477	27	0.284	38.8	-2
Kevin Youkilis	1B	0.258	0.368	0.421	18	0.274	21.9	3
Mark Loretta	2B	0.294	0.355	0.415	10	0.266	28.5	1
Alex Cora	SS	0.261	0.307	0.368	9	0.232	6.3	1
Dustin Pedroia	SS	0.299	0.365	0.458	14	0.281	39.6	3
Mike Lowell	3B	0.271	0.332	0.457	22	0.267	21.9	3
Manny Ramirez	LF	0.296	0.386	0.571	40	0.314	51.1	-11
Coco Crisp	CF	0.295	0.347	0.445	15	0.276	27.1	2
Trot Nixon	RF	0.284	0.369	0.482	24	0.288	28.8	0
David Ortiz	DH	0.292	0.384	0.578	40	0.314	57.1	0

Pitcher	       POS	IP	ERA	K/9	BB/9	HR/9		
Curt Schilling	SP	99.7	4.17	7.31	1.99	1.08		
Josh Beckett	SP	184.3	3.87	7.47	2.73	0.93
David Wells	SP	151.7	4.79	4.33	1.19	1.13
Matt Clement	SP	190.3	4.11	6.76	3.17	0.89
Tim Wakefield	SP	203.7	4.65	5.83	2.92	1.15
Jon Papelbon	SP	101.3	4.91	6.59	3.21	1.34

Keith Foulke	RP	51.3	4.29	6.88	2.65	1.41
Craig Hansen	RP	43.7	4.09	6.77	2.06	1.03
Bronson Arroyo	RP	201.3	4.47	5.42	2.19	1.12
David Riske	RP	54.3	3.57	6.81	2.82	1.16
Rudy Seanez	RP	55.3	3.96	9.11	3.91	1.14
Julian Tavarez	RP	64.3	4.33	5.32	2.66	0.84
Mike Timlin	RP	65.3	3.98	6.48	1.93	0.96

 

EDIT: I borrowed this nicely formatted chart from a poster on another site. They're from the PECOTA system though. I'm just too lazy to try to format the Excel sheet myself. If there is anyone or a stat you would like then let me know.

 

EDIT: The above numbers were prorated to 650 AB's by the other poster.

[example1]

I can E-1. Pedroia is going to he a hell of a player; one of the best in the league. I have watched this kid only on TV and I am sold. He has a solid bat, can field very well, runs with abandon and plays with a passion rarely seen anymore. This guy will be a star for us. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this kid hits around 300 when he gets to the Majors as a rookie.

 

Yeah, the guy seems like he's a throwback player. He reminds me of the type of player that I always hear about in the 40's, hard nosed, willing to break bones to win, scrappy, great tools. Another in the Lenny Dykstra mould perhaps. I'm very excited to watch him over the next few years.

 

The projections for him are phenomonal. If he comes out and hits .300 with a high 300 OBP and 450+ SLG he'll be as good a second baseman/SS as there is. He's a dirtdog through and through. I think there is something to the dirtdog notion; in that the Sox certainly seem to be keeping their dogs and letting other types go. Having a player like marte would have sent the Sox in a completely different direction than a player like Pedroia. They are both valuable and likely will be great players, but its the difference between an Edgar Renteria type and a Millar type. I think Beckett fits that discription well; I think Papelbon seems to; Hansen cetainly does; Crisp likely does--he's hard nosed; I think Ellsbury has those very qualities. I imagine that type of player will continue to define the players the sox go after and who they have for the next 10 years or so.

[example1]

One thing I left out, then I'll stop posting:

 

W-L

 

Schilling 6-7 (with 6 Saves ) That's gotta be a PECOTA flaw

Beckett 12-8 (33.1 VORP)

Papelbon 6-6 (8.4)

Arroyo 12-11 23.6

Wakefield 12-12 20.1

Clement 12-9 29.5

Wells 7-9 11.7

 

Lester's numbers: 7-9; 27 G; 135.7 IP, 103 K, 64 BB, 11 STF, 1.52 WHIP, 5.17 ERA (5.08 PERA), VORP: 5.4. Comparables: Kurt Ainsworth, Noah Lowry, Ryan Ketchner

 

So PECOTA is not really predicting anything unexpected from any of our pitchers. Any of the potential optimism from the offensive numbers is quickly rubbed away by looking at the pitching projections. That being said, I feel a lot more confident about the pitching staff than BP does. I expect Schilling to throw a lot more than 99.7 innings this year, and I don't expect him to get a single save (in the regular season).

 

Anyway, I just found some of those interesting. They expect another pretty goos season from Clement, so that's cool I guess.

[riverside sluggers]

Thanks example, I agree that the offensive numbers do seem plausible (except for Coco who is set to have a better season than they have him down for)

 

But yeah I dont know what they're thinking of projecting Schilling will throw just under 100 innings. It makes it look like the starting staff will be the same as last season, which hardly I believe is the case.

 

Thanks again for the stats.

[ORS]

Thanks example, I agree that the offensive numbers do seem plausible (except for Coco who is set to have a better season than they have him down for)

 

But yeah I dont know what they're thinking of projecting Schilling will throw just under 100 innings. It makes it look like the starting staff will be the same as last season, which hardly I believe is the case.

 

Thanks again for the stats.

I would imagine PECOTA only has him throwing 100 innings because it probably uses a weighting system for previous years stats. Under a weighting sysem, Curt's 93 IP last year will have the largest impact on his '06 projection. The fact that he is one year older and has an injury history - look at his IPs each year in his career, very inconsistent - probably affect the outcome as well.

[riverside sluggers]

True as that might be, Schil is setting himself up for a better rebound season than they have suggested

 

If I were to come up with a prediction, it would be 170-185 innings, 14 wins, 3.97 ERA, and 165 Ks

 

Call me too optimistic if you will, I respect your opinion. The reports on how he has been doing this offseason has gotten me ready and raring to go to see him pitch

[ORS]

True as that might be, Schil is setting himself up for a better rebound season than they have suggested

 

If I were to come up with a prediction, it would be 170-185 innings, 14 wins, 3.97 ERA, and 165 Ks

 

Call me too optimistic if you will, I respect your opinion. The reports on how he has been doing this offseason has gotten me ready and raring to go to see him pitch

I don't think those predicitons are overly optimistic.

 

Regarding his comeback. I'd be wiling to bet that PECOTA is just a set of standarized equations, and all they do is plug in the data. This means that there isn't a place for any speculated rebound. If last years numbers are down, then the projection will be down. Taking that into mind, I wouldn't put too much weight on Schilling's projection because both his inning total and effectiveness were affected by his injury. ST will give us a better idea of what to expect from Curt than any statistical formula will.

[ORS]

Dan Szymborski has updated his ZiPS numbers for Crisp now that he'll be playing in Fenway.

 

.321/.370/.466/.836, 14 HR, 19 SB

 

I'm skeptical of him reaching those numbers in his 1st year with Boston, but I'll be happier than a pig in s*** if he does.

 

Dan's article at BaseballThinkFactory.com

[Cityofchampions33]

I agree with that projection, and somewhat made that prediciton earlier. If you add the Fenway factor, pap jack, and that he's improving every season the stats tehre make sense.

[Cityofchampions33]

He has Riske at a 4.00+ ERA though, and Mota with a 3.80, I don't agree with that at all. He has Bard hitting .277 though, which is bette offensively than anything we'll get outta Flaherty.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

Dan Szymborski has updated his ZiPS numbers for Crisp now that he'll be playing in Fenway.

 

.321/.370/.466/.836, 14 HR, 19 SB

 

I'm skeptical of him reaching those numbers in his 1st year with Boston, but I'll be happier than a pig in s*** if he does.

 

Dan's article at BaseballThinkFactory.com

 

 

Those are pretty close to what I was thinking, but I think he'll hit more like 20 homers. He hit 16 last year, playing in a pitcher's park.

[guapo34]

Those are pretty close to what I was thinking, but I think he'll hit more like 20 homers. He hit 16 last year, playing in a pitcher's park.

 

including 12 on the road against only 4 at home. 25 isn't impossible out of him.

[Cityofchampions33]

Yeah, if you get his hitting chart there are a few doubles that will land either over the Monster, orm at least off it so theres already about 10 extra hits right there.

[riverside sluggers]

jeez, Peter Gammons recently discussed Bill James' revised handbook that he has been able to scan through. Bill James has Coco just hitting 13 Hrs.

 

Myself, Im looking at the fact that Crisp hit much better on the road than he had done in his own home park (a pitcher's park).

[BoSox Rule]

Bill James had Coco Crisp hitting 13 HR in Jacobs Field.

[kreinbihl34]

Coco is going to be a great player in Boston... I live about a hour away from Cleveland and I've watched him about 10-15 times in person. I thing I never saw was him lost in the feild but idk I'm not an expert