Gammons interview on 92.5 the River, 1/26/05

[guapo34]

I think the only way Marte gets traded, is if we end up with a solid SS and CF out of it, and I'd still rather see us keep him.

[guapo34]

ahem, Theo's own thoughts on the "Johnny Damon situation"

 

Theo is a pretty smart guy. If he felt we really screwed up the negotiations I don't think he'd come out and say, "Wow, they really screwed that one up. If i were still there We definately would have signed him AND at the price we wanted to pay."

[riverside sluggers]

um yeah but remember this is exactly what happened last offseason with Pedro when Theo was handling it. He and the FO set a price value and amount of seasons they believed Pedro was worth at and didnt budge at their offer. IMO the concensus is that Theo doubted with others that Damon is worth as much or more than the contract he just signed.

 

Just like the Beckett deal, Theo was most likely in contact with the brass for advising and such. If Theo was there or not, Johnny would still have chosen the 4 years/$52 million from NY over 4 years/$40 million from Boston.

[guapo34]

I'm not saying you're compltetely wrong, just that he wouldn't say either way. Just because he handled the Pedro negotiating one way doesn't mean you negotiate with everyone that way. Different players at different positions with different injury histories. I don't doubt that he'd handle it the same way, just saying his comments aren't really worth much.

[example1]

I'm not saying you're compltetely wrong, just that he wouldn't say either way. Just because he handled the Pedro negotiating one way doesn't mean you negotiate with everyone that way. Different players at different positions with different injury histories. I don't doubt that he'd handle it the same way, just saying his comments aren't really worth much.

 

Only a stupid GM will raise his bid for a players services based on the willingness of a stupid team to over spend on someone like Furcal. The same was true for Pedro. He wanted money close to manny's contract and the sox FO HATED that contract, probably because it made every other player want absurd amounts of money.

[guapo34]

Only a stupid GM will raise his bid for a players services based on the willingness of a stupid team to over spend on someone like Furcal. The same was true for Pedro. He wanted money close to manny's contract and the sox FO HATED that contract, probably because it made every other player want absurd amounts of money.

 

you quoted my post but where did i say anything that disagrees with this? I think sometimes you have to overpay for a need a little bit, and the line has to be drawn somewhere. Outbidding the Mets for Pedro or the Yankees for Damon would've been stupid. I'm not sure why you think I disagree with you.

[Beckett95]

I still think the sox did the smart thing in not signing damon to a ridicolous contract, which in the past they might have done. A lot of people are predicting he'll have a bad year this year.

 

This is from Roto Authority before Damon was signed..

Back in August, I speculated that Johnny Damon might be due for a four-year, $50MM free agent deal this winter. Top suitors still seem to be the Red Sox, Angels, Yankees, and Cubs. The more I think about it, the more I think that this is primed to be a very disappointing signing. I'm not going to say worst; it won't be on the Russ Ortiz/Eric Milton scale or anything.

 

First, let's look at Damon's critically acclaimed defense. Having now finished his age 31 season, I think it's clear that Damon's glovework is slipping. In his second year in Boston, Damon posted a career high 25 fielding runs above replacement (FRAR). Last year, Damon lurched down to 14 FRAR. You can read a description of this fielding stat here.

 

By way of comparison, Jim Edmonds posted a career high 34 FRAR this year. Vernon Wells had 30. Aaron Rowand put up 27 FRAR. Damon is simply no longer an elite center fielder. It's only going to get worse.

 

Let's talk about Damon's hitting. With an .805 OPS this year, he ranked 5th among all centerfielders. An excellent showing, no doubt, but only a little bit better than guys like Brady Clark and Preston Wilson. And Kenny Lofton was actually better than Damon this year.

 

For $2-3MM and a one-year deal, Lofton makes much more sense than Damon for any team with a need in center. I'm curious to see what Baseball Prospectus's PECOTA projection system says, but I think Damon will regress to his early-Boston level next season. Somewhere around the .275/.350/.430 range. It just won't make sense to pay him $10MM or more next year, let alone $13MM in 2009.

 

Damon is not a star fielder anymore. He'll never hit 20 HR again. And a .350 OBP is OK, but it's not worth superstar money. The best move Boston can make this winter is one they don't make. I expect Theo Epstein to forgo the loyalty and deny Damon the gift contract he gave Jason Varitek last year.

 

October, 13 2005

 

http://www.rotoauthority.com/2005/10/baseball_free_a.html

[a700hitter]

I still think the sox did the smart thing in not signing damon to a ridicolous contract, which in the past they might have done. A lot of people are predicting he'll have a bad year this year.

But what is their succession plan for CF? If it is Adam Stern, then not signing Damon was a mistake. Also, if the argument is that the Sox will redeploy the $ saved on Damon, I haven't seen them make an investment in another player. What are they doing with the $19 million that they saved on Renteria? As far a Damon's 4/52 being ridiculous, at times you have to pay more than FMV to put together a Championship team. Manny's contract is far more ridiculous, but Manny helped win a Championship. And despite Manny's contract, ownership has managed to make a nice profit. As a fan, I'd rather have Damon playing CF and leading off at the cost of 2-3 million less for the owners rather than watch Adam Stern in CF. Keeping Damon would not have sacrificed the future, because it would not have cost any prospects. If and when the the blue-chippers were ready to take over CF in 2 or 3 years, Damon could have been traded for prospects, or moved to LF or DH. People who agree with the FO are missing a key point. Letting Damon go might actually damage not only 2006 but the future. In order to plug the CF hole, the Red Sox might trade one or more prospects. Whether they are blue-chip prospects, they will have less trading chips for future moves. There has been talk of moving Marte to fill the CF hole. Wouldn't that contradict the future-looking strategy of the FO.

 

Letting Damon go made little sense, but letting the Yankees get him makes a poor decision worse.

[riverside sluggers]

um who said anything that adam stern is even being considered for center field? A recent interview with the Co-Gms had said that he would open the season in Pawtucket. Even if he is called up, it would just be really a utility role. Seattle is still a considerable trading prospect. But I dont expect Boston to give into deamnds along the lines of Lester, Papelbon, Hansen, or Marte.

 

Bronson or Clement coupled with a lesser known prospect for Reed, Id be happy with

[a700hitter]

um who said anything that adam stern is even being considered for center field? A recent interview with the Co-Gms had said that he would open the season in Pawtucket.

The point is that at the time they let Damon walk they didn't seem to have a succession plan. If they did, what is taking so long?

[ORS]

But what is their succession plan for CF? If it is Adam Stern, then not signing Damon was a mistake. Also, if the argument is that the Sox will redeploy the $ saved on Damon, I haven't seen them make an investment in another player. What are they doing with the $19 million that they saved on Renteria? As far a Damon's 4/52 being ridiculous, at times you have to pay more than FMV to put together a Championship team. Manny's contract is far more ridiculous, but Manny helped win a Championship. And despite Manny's contract, ownership has managed to make a nice profit. As a fan, I'd rather have Damon playing CF and leading off at the cost of 2-3 million less for the owners rather than watch Adam Stern in CF. Keeping Damon would not have sacrificed the future, because it would not have cost any prospects. If and when the the blue-chippers were ready to take over CF in 2 or 3 years, Damon could have been traded for prospects, or moved to LF or DH. People who agree with the FO are missing a key point. Letting Damon go might actually damage not only 2006 but the future. In order to plug the CF hole, the Red Sox might trade one or more prospects. Whether they are blue-chip prospects, they will have less trading chips for future moves. There has been talk of moving Marte to fill the CF hole. Wouldn't that contradict the future-looking strategy of the FO.

 

Letting Damon go made little sense, but letting the Yankees get him makes a poor decision worse.

Your theory about it hurting the future would be correct if any of the things you mentioned happened, but none of them have as of yet.

 

Marte in CF? You aren't serious are you? I'd love to know where you saw this talk going on. If it was a paper, it wouldn't surprise me a bit since those guys know less about baseball than you or I do, and they fill a lot of column space with mental diarrhea.

 

Blue-chip 'spects for Crisp, Reed, Lugo, or Gathright? Doubtful. If it's a package of lower level 'spects, then so be it. The farm is deep enough with mid-level prospects to take a hit in order to obtain young MLB level talent.

 

I think there is a strong possibility that the team doesn't make a move for a CF if a good deal doesn't present itself. A combo of Stern/Durbin/ and either Murphy or Moss won't be anything to write home about, but I can see this FO going with that option before they ship off key parts of the future club. That said, I think their patience is a bit telling. I feel that Wells for Roberts is in their back pocket, but they are just waiting for someone to flinch.

 

EDIT: Damon will be untradable at $13M per in two years.

[a700hitter]

Your theory about it hurting the future would be correct if any of the things you mentioned happened, but none of them have as of yet.

Only time will tell.

Marte in CF? You aren't serious are you?

I apologize for my poor phrasing. I didn't mean that Marte would be moved to CF. By "moved" I meant that he would be traded to fill the CF hole. That would certainly be contrary to the future-looking strategy of the FO. If they had kept Damon, there would have been no reason to even consider trading Marte.

The farm is deep enough with mid-level prospects to take a hit in order to obtain young MLB level talent.

Moving mid-level prospects would hurt the FO's ability to fill holes or fine-tune at the trading deadline purely because they will have less trading chips.

I think there is a strong possibility that the team doesn't make a move for a CF if a good deal doesn't present itself. A combo of Stern/Durbin/ and either Murphy or Moss won't be anything to write home about, but I can see this FO going with that option before they ship off key parts of the future club.

If this is how it turns out for 2006, the FO will be providing the fans with an inferior product and asking us to have faith that things will be better in 2007 or 2008. If that happens, it would be very unfortunate, because with the improved pitching, the 2006 Sox only needed a good fielding SS and some minor ajustments to make a serious run at another Championship. Those opportunities don't come around very often.

[ORS]

If this is how it turns out for 2006, the FO will be providing the fans with an inferior product and asking us to have faith that things will be better in 2007 or 2008. If that happens, it would be very unfortunate, because with the improved pitching, the 2006 Sox only needed a good fielding SS and some minor ajustments to make a serious run at another Championship. Those opportunities don't come around very often.

I think Cora fits that description. If, however, you meant that they only need a good fielding CF, well Stern and Durbin fit it as well. If the lineup has Cora and Stern/Durbin in it, then will definitely score less runs than the past three years where they eclipsed 900 runs each season. It is also reasonable to expect that they will have better pitching, provided Schilling and Foulke bounce back, and better defense, thus allowing less runs.

 

I think the FOs caution about overpaying for Damon and trading off the future to improve the '06 club hinges on the question marks that Schilling and Foulke provide going into the season. It is very unlikely that this club, regardless of the offense, makes a deep October run if those two suck as bad as they did last year. If things were more certain concerning those two, then it would make more sense to adopt a "win now" mentality. But as it stands right now, relying on those two is a big risk, which is why 2006 seems to shaping up as a stay-afloat year. If those two are good, then they can take a loss in offensive production. If they continue to suck, then they haven't put all their eggs in one basket.

[guapo34]

um who said anything that adam stern is even being considered for center field? A recent interview with the Co-Gms had said that he would open the season in Pawtucket. Even if he is called up, it would just be really a utility role. Seattle is still a considerable trading prospect. But I dont expect Boston to give into deamnds along the lines of Lester, Papelbon, Hansen, or Marte.

 

Bronson or Clement coupled with a lesser known prospect for Reed, Id be happy with

 

 

Hansen can't be traded until june, not that we should.

[a700hitter]

I think the FOs caution about overpaying for Damon and trading off the future to improve the '06 club hinges on the question marks that Schilling and Foulke provide going into the season. It is very unlikely that this club, regardless of the offense, makes a deep October run if those two suck as bad as they did last year. If things were more certain concerning those two, then it would make more sense to adopt a "win now" mentality. But as it stands right now, relying on those two is a big risk, which is why 2006 seems to shaping up as a stay-afloat year. If those two are good, then they can take a loss in offensive production. If they continue to suck, then they haven't put all their eggs in one basket.

I agree. If Schiling and Foulke don't rebound they are going nowhere. As a fan, I am coming at this from a fundamentally different perspective than management who have a business to run. What they have done may be sound from a business perspective and that is not for me to question. As a fan, I will probably be disappointed if I have to watch Stern/Durbin in CF instead of Damon.

[SCM33]

um who said anything that adam stern is even being considered for center field? A recent interview with the Co-Gms had said that he would open the season in Pawtucket. Even if he is called up, it would just be really a utility role. Seattle is still a considerable trading prospect. But I dont expect Boston to give into deamnds along the lines of Lester, Papelbon, Hansen, or Marte.

 

Bronson or Clement coupled with a lesser known prospect for Reed, Id be happy with

 

 

Stern has to remain on the roster for about the first month of the season, or he is returned to Atlanta due to his rule 5 status. Stern will be on the club out of Spring Training.

[KeepTheFaith1229]

If the Sox can come out with Reed in center and Lugo at short, I'd be thrilled.

[schillingouttheks]

Eh, I'm not sold on Lugo. He's an aging SS and I'd just rather have Cora play SS with guaranteed defense if Manny ends up staying. If Manny stays we can afford a mediocre bat in the lineup for some serious defense in the infield.

[a700hitter]

But cf will probably be a second weak stick. It's alot harder to hide two weak hitters than one.

[SCM33]

Reed in CF isn't necessarily a weak stick. Stern is. Reed will only improve. His decent OB% and below average batting average tell us that he has a very good eye. (Only hit .251, but had a .350+OB%)

[Redguitar985]

2. They trade away a bad contract +$$$ (Renteria) for Baseball Prospectus's #1 rated prospect. So, the disappointing top-10 prospect lost in the first deal is replaced by someone better. Sure it opens a hole for the immediate future, but not if you consider what Renteria did for the team last year and the fact that they have someone on the roster, Cora, that can give them equivalent production. Renteria was a huge disappointment last year, yet they still won 95 games. Cora + the money sent to Atlanta is more cost effective than $10M per year for what Edgar was providing.

 

I really liked what you wrote here. I agree that the Marte pickup certainly makes up for the loss of Hanley Ramirez which disappointed me. However, I still didn't like giving up Renteria. Granted there was nothing saying he would have improved, and I can see the FO's reasoning, but I would've given him a second chance. He was very effective in St. Louis and Atlanta has every belief that he will return to form. Why not give it one more year? Oh well. Let's just hope Marte does well.