Ideas for 2006 lineup

[Cityofchampions33]

The way Theo played it is tyhat everyone is available for the right price, and IMO Beckett is the right price. That's why I don't think we should involve him in any deal with TB unless its for one of their franchise players (Kazmir, Baldelli).

[vasoxfan]

Before I start on my attempt at a line-up, I think some notes are in order:

 

1. The first position we need to solve is CF. Right now Adam Stern is our CF, and I think that's probably not ideal.

 

2. If we solve CF via trade, we may need to give up starting pitching (Arroyo or Clement), in which case a Wells trade becomes much harder to swallow (unless a Wells trade brings back proven bullpen quality, in which case Papelbon could start).

 

3. If we solve CF via FA, the only choices left appear to be Wilson and Byrnes. Wilson has knee questions, but is better overall offensively. Byrnes gives solid defense at any OF spot and can hit LHP. Ideally, he is a 4OF platoon mate with Nixon.

 

4. Our second highest priority is SS. Right now, our shortstop is some SS cocktail of Cora/ Graf/Pedroia.

 

5. I politely disagree with what people are saying here and in other threads regarding Loretta at SS. The last time he played SS for more than a handful of games was 2000. (see http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3343&context=fielding). Furthermore, his career ZR at SS is 805, which is unimpressive (not that ZR is the best stat out there).

 

6. The FA options at short are probably no better than Cora/Graf/Pedroia. Both A. Gonzalez and Royce Clayton are terrible offensively. However, Gonzalez could potentially benefit a little from Fenway given his tendency to hit with power only to LF. Still, that is probably wishful thinking.

 

7. Stern, being a Rule 5 pickup, needs to be on the 25 man roster to start the season (I believe for all of April, although I could be wrong here). Otherwise he is gone. Given that he has lasted this long, it seems that the RS like him, so I assume he stays.

 

8. Unless miracles happen, Youkilis is our starting 1B. However, he has little experience at the position and he struggles at Fenway. Has anyone noticed that his career SLG pct at Fenway is a paltry 379 versus 444 away? This difference accounts for almost the entirety of this 824 v 751 split in OPS. Were he platooned with JT Snow, we could produce a pretty decent 1B. Youk would make all starts on the road and some at home (particularly against LHP for which his career OPS is 841). Snow would be a defensive replacement in late innings and would start some games at Fenway, particularly against solid RHP. Even if Snow is only good for his 2005 stats, his OPS against LHP in 2005 was 725, which is reasonably close to Youk’s 757 career (note that if you condition on Youk facing RHP AT FENWAY, which I cannot find, you will certainly get a number less than 757 and potentially less than 725).

 

9. Lowell is still a huge question mark. For that reason alone Graffanino has value. Although he is a career utilityman, which we have a surplus of, I think Sox will keep him.

 

10. Manny will not be traded. Given our offensive question marks, he is more valuable to us than ever.

 

11. I assume Marte spends the year in AAA. He’s young and, by all accounts I’ve read, had a tough going when Atlanta tried him in the OF.

 

After my long-winded attempt to make sense of where we stand this offseason, I think we most likely will look this in 2006 (assuming we are unable to trade for a suitable CF):

 

Starters:

Schilling, Beckett, Wells (unless traded), Wake, Clement, Arroyo (only If Wells is traded)

 

Pen:

Foulke, Timlin, Papelbon, Mota, Seanez, Arroyo (unless Wells trade)/DiNardo or Other (if Wells trade)

 

11 Pitchers total

 

Position Players (assuming no CF trade):

OF:

Manny, Wilson, Stern, Nixon, Byrnes

 

IF

Lowell, Loretta, Cora, Graf, Youkilis, Snow

Pedroia/Machado (only as a late call up if Stern has a miserable time in April and May)

 

C:

Varitek, Backup (TBD)

 

DH

Ortiz

 

14 Total (noting that Pedroia/Machado would only be called up if others were sent down /DFA).

[guapo34]

Sorry nope, we arent going to give up Marte. Moving on...

 

 

My point wasn't that the best thing we could do is trade Marte for Crisp. My point was that the best possible and realistic major league club we could construct for next year would have crisp in center, and Marte would probably have to be dealt. I was pointing out that the lineup that would consruct, with coco in center, and lugo at short, would probably outscore last years offense, which ranked first in the majors. Our starting rotation is already better. Obviously injuries could change that, but every major league team can say the same thing, and we were hit hard by injuries last year. If our bullpen is a major improvement over last year, I'd be shocked. So, what i was getting at is I don't see why people are slamming the front office, and thinking we've fallen behind the blue jays.

[guapo34]

I wouldn't say ideal, i think ideal is not trading away blue chip prospects for bodies to simply fill holes. I like Crisp, but do not like lugo. Would keeping Cora at SS until the all star break and trading for izturis make anyone sick? Wells and Shoppach for izturis and brazoban?

 

Izturis has a career obp. of .295. Lugos is .340, hee has a career slugging% 62 points lower, and hes out till midseason. Wells could retire if you don't trade him before the season starts.

[Cityofchampions33]

ALright, the whole thing with Lugo is this:

Yes, he is a decent player and I wouldn't mind giving him playing time except for a few things:

The Devil Rays apparently think he's ARod of 3 years agoand is worth Marte and more. Also we have a more complete player in Loretta with the bat and defensively. I would not agree with any trade to get a SS unless he's better than Loretta.

[jsinger121]

the fact that tampa overvalues their players is going to only hurt them as they will never be able to trade any of them because of their ridiculous demands thus letting all their players enter free agency with nothing in return except maybe a few draft picks. how stupid can tampa still be. i actually thought they improved when they brought in andrew friedman and gerry hunsicker.

[guapo34]

There are reports saying both the Rays would have traded lugo for marte and that they wouldn't. I seem to be one of the few that like to believe they would've if they could've because they'd be idiots not to. As for Loretta, if he can play short, there is no hole at short. Since the front office hasn't come out and indicated hes going to be our SS, then I don't think its happening.

[jsinger121]

he has not played short stop in awhile. he can play it but he does not have the range that is needed from a shortstop. the red sox would probably prefer to have someone who had better range than loretta at short and i wouldnt be shocked to see the sox go into the sesaon with cora at short if they could not find anyone.

[Cityofchampions33]

Riverside can u pull out that league that explains how capable Loretta is at SS?

[jsinger121]

YEAR TEAM POS G PO A E DP AdjG Rate RAR RAA Rate2 RAR2 RAA2 BatOut EQR

1995 MIL-A SS 13 13 33 1 5 10.9 82 0 -2 81 0 -2 27 5

1996 MIL-A SS 21 22 32 1 12 12.3 100 2 0 99 2 0 32 3

1997 MIL-A SS 44 50 84 6 23 31.1 94 3 -2 94 4 -2 87 16

1998 MIL-N SS 56 67 144 3 39 43.6 107 11 3 106 12 3 128 26

1999 MIL-N SS 74 112 176 4 40 66.0 91 4 -6 91 7 -6 206 34

2000 MIL-N SS 90 122 255 2 54 83.4 106 17 5 106 22 5 265 42

2001 MIL-N SS 9 11 20 1 4 5.3 119 1 1 119 2 1 17 3

2002 HOU-N SS 6 6 16 1 2 4.8 100 0 0 99 1 0 12 4

2002 MIL-N SS 12 14 10 2 3 7.2 72 -1 -2 72 -1 -2 21 3

2003 SD_-N SS 3 2 0 0 0 .7 100 0 0 99 0 0 2 0

SS 328 419 770 21 182 265.3 99 38 -2 99 50 -4 797 136 .259

[jsinger121]

those are some fielding stats for loretta at short. alot of why he really is not a shortstop is because of his range factor.

[vasoxfan]

It also bears mention that Graf and Cora have similar range factor and zone rating at short. But Cora has played about 4 times as many games at SS as Graf.

 

POS Games RF ZR

Cora SS 373 4.4 8.6

Graf SS 93 4.8 8.7

 

If Cora is a legit option at SS, then Graf should at least receive consideration there too.

[riverside sluggers]

Seattle and Tampa Bay, keep walking and dont let the door hit your ass on the way out :banned:

 

M's step up their offers to Boston

By Bob Finnigan

Seattle Times staff reporter

 

According to multiple sources, the Seattle Mariners have increased efforts to build up pitching depth at or near the major-league level. An East Coast source said the Mariners are offering pitcher Gil Meche as well as center fielder Jeremy Reed, in an effort to obtain one of Boston's prized pitching prospects, Jon Lester (a Puyallup native) or Jonathan Papelbon, in a trade.

 

Boston began the talks when it became apparent it would lose center fielder Johnny Damon. In its initial inquiry about Reed, Boston was believed to have talked about giving hard-throwing Matt Clement, who will make $19 million over the next two seasons. Since signing left-hander Jarrod Washburn to a $38 million contract, Seattle has focused on sinker-baller Bronson Arroyo in recent discussions since he made only $1.85 million in 2005 and is arbitration eligible and under club control for three more years. "It might be tough to get Lester or Papelbon," a National League scout said. "Every team who has talked to the Sox about a deal has asked for one of them."

 

While the Mariners are said to be more proactive in pushing a trade with Boston, they apparently are down on the Red Sox's dance card. The Sox, in need of a shortstop as well as a center fielder, are reportedly focused on a multi-player deal with Tampa Bay, trying to land shortstop Julio Lugo and outfielder Joey Gathright. "Gathright is strictly a defensive guy, real fast but not much with the bat," a scout said. "You can be sure Tampa is trying to get Papelbon or Lester in that deal."

 

The Sox are also thought to have inquired about obtaining outfielder Coco Crisp from Cleveland, but the Guardians are holding off as they try to acquire an outfielder to make Crisp expendable.

[elsrbueno]

First let me make one thing clear-- I'm not critisizing you Riverside Sluggers. It's the dipshit who wrote that article:

 

The Red Sox are "stepping up" their persuit of pitching by offering Gil Meche to the Red Sox? "Stepping up" to me implies making the offer in some way more desirable, and since Gil Meche was so horrible last yearthat it isn't even funny... he's a liability at $2.5 million.

 

Meche gave up more hits than innings pitched, walked nearly as many batters as he struck out last season, and had a 5.01 ERA at HOME last season-- in SafeCo which is widely considered one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball.

 

No thanks.

 

I'd consider Gil Meche acceptable financial punishment if we traded Matt Clement to Seattle for Reed (in that I'd take on his salary as a way to partially relieve the burden of Matt Clement's contract), but if the Mariners seriously thought Jeremy Reed and Gil Meche was worth Lester or Papelbon I'd just simply say "No thanks." and walk away.

 

HOPEfully the Red Sox management team is smarter than that.

[riverside sluggers]

Its cool elsrbueno. I agree that the Mariners are way over their head, especially asking for Papelbon.

 

------------------------------------------

 

Riverside can u pull out that league that explains how capable Loretta is at SS?

 

Sure thing.

 

December 20, 2005

A shortstop solution

By David Lefort, Boston.com Staff

 

Might the answer to the Red Sox' shortstop quandary be right in front of their faces? Miguel Tejada, Julio Lugo, and Alex Gonzalez have all been discussed as possibilities to replace Edgar Renteria, but another option has suddenly presented itself -- one that doesn’t require the Red Sox to look beyond their own roster. Tony Graffanino surprisingly accepted the Red Sox’ arbitration offer on Monday, meaning he is essentially signed for 2006 (though the Sox could trade or release him during spring training). His return creates a logjam at second base, with the newly acquired Mark Loretta already penciled in as the starter.

 

Where does that leave Graffanino? One option is to make him a utilityman, though Alex Cora seems a better fit in that role. Another possibility the Sox should consider is to move either Loretta or Graffanino to shortstop, a position both have played at some point during their careers.

 

On the surface, moving someone across the infield to play such an important position doesn’t seem like a good idea; but consider the facts ...

 

Defense: Graffanino and Loretta have made a combined 421 appearances at shortstop, with Loretta owning the lion’s share with 328. Graffanino made 13 errors in 339 chances (.962 fielding percentage, which is eight points better than Renteria’s 2005 percentage), and Loretta had 21 errors in 1,213 chances. Only two shortstops in major league baseball last season had a better fielding percentage than Loretta’s career .983 mark at short. Let that sink in for a minute.

 

What about zone rating and range factor? Both Graffanino and Loretta have similar numbers in those categories (at the shortstop position) as Gonzalez, who is considered one of the best defensive shortstops in the National League.

 

Offense: Graffanino showed in the second half of the season why he deserves a spot in the everyday Red Sox lineup. After coming over from Kansas City in a trade, he batted .319 with 39 runs scored in 51 games for the Red Sox, and .309 overall. Compare those numbers to those of Gonzalez, who at this point appears to be the most likely free-agent option for the Sox. For the Marlins last season, Gonzalez hit .264 in 130 games, with just five homers and 45 runs scored. In fairness to Gonzalez, he missed some time due to injury, and he hit 23 homers in 2004 (albeit with a .232 batting average and a horrid .270 on-base percentage).

 

Cost analysis: What’s the cost for someone like Gonzalez? He made $3.5 million in 2005, and at 28 years old and in the prime of his career, he’s likely going to command a multi-year deal worth somewhere north of his current salary. Would the Red Sox want to commit for that many years and that much money? They’d probably prefer not to. What about acquiring someone like Julio Lugo? He would cost the Sox prospect Andy Marte in all likelihood. Meanwhile, Loretta and Graffanino are already under Red Sox control for 2006. Graffanino will probably make somewhere around $2 million in arbitration, meaning a savings one way or another for the Red Sox, who could use that extra cash to fill other roster holes. In other words, this move makes financial sense for the Red Sox.

 

Unless the Sox can go out and get Tejada, which looks unlikely at this point, moving either Loretta or Graffanino to shortstop makes sense for 2006. Both have shown they can handle the workload defensively, and both of their bats belong in the everyday lineup. Plus, penciling them in brings the Red Sox one step closer to completing construction of the 2006 team, and frees up time to continue the pursuit of Johnny Damon and bullpen reinforcements.

 

Besides, they don’t have a very tough act to follow.

[pats55sox45]

after reading that i actually agree

and think that loretta and graff should combine to be our starting middle inf, with one of them moving to ss

(pedroia will be ready in 07 anyway)

 

but, we still need a cf

one thing i dont get about the padres trade of wells is why are we so reluctant to take on woody williams contract

i know hes overpaid, but hes actually a decent number five starter

 

here are some possible lineups:

 

1b: youk

2b: loretta

ss: graffanino

3b: lowell, marte

lf: manny

cf: preston wilson

rf: trot

dh: papi

c: tek

 

1: loretta

2: youk

3: papi

4: manny

5: lowell

6: wilson

7: trot

8: tek

9: graff

 

another poss:

get dave roberts

1: roberts

2: loretta

3: papi

4: manny

5: lowell

6: trot

7: tek

8: youk

9: graff

 

wilson gives us another run producer

roberts gives us another run scorer

 

i would absolutely love coco crisp, who can do both, although a trade there is prob unlikely, but for fun, here is the lineup with him:

1: coco crisp

2: loretta

3: papi

4: manny

5: lowell

6: trot

7: tek

8: youk

9: graff

 

no matter what happens, we are not going to lead mlb in runs again this yr

[SCM33]

No thank to Preston Wilson. No thank to Dave Roberts. No thanks to Tony G having any role on this team for his money and actual value. No thanks to Tony G at SS.

 

Your last lineup looks most realistic, however you wont see Loretta and Graffy in the same lineup.

[jsinger121]

if graff and loretta are your two guys up the middle the red sox are going to have serious defensive issues. also the red sox will never trade papelbon or lester in any deal unless they are getting a star player in return.

[riverside sluggers]

oh yeah please, loretta or tony at ss will be so much worse than renterria

 

id take them any day over Julio Lugo who averages 20+ errors a season. And over Gonzalez, who they are both equal to when playing shotrtstop and can hit better than the T-Ball hitter he has proven to be.

[pats55sox45]

if graff and loretta are your two guys up the middle the red sox are going to have serious defensive issues. also the red sox will never trade papelbon or lester in any deal unless they are getting a star player in return.

 

i never said anything about trading paps or lester

in fact i wouldnt give them up even if u do get a star player

unless that star player is a pitcher

[ksushi]

Anyone wish we got Millwood now? That would give us more leverage and help us protect our farm system.

[guapo34]

5 years and 60 million for Millwood. No, i don't wish we got him now.

[jsinger121]

not at the contract in which he got would i want millwood.

[vasoxfan]

And to what extent does the farm system need protection? JP will likely be a significant contributor this year (either pen or sp) and Lester is likely a year away from contributing.

[riverside sluggers]

http://rays.tbo.com/rays/MGBVRMIZTHE.html

 

St. Pertersburg Times: "It doesn't make sense for us to make a trade unless we get a piece or two back to add to our collection of young talent," executive vice president Andrew Friedman said Thursday. "If we don't get that piece or two, it behooves us to keep the momentum we built in the second half with our young players and build off that."

 

While discussions continue with several teams, including the revamped Red Sox, who are searching for a shortstop and a center fielder, any trade the Rays make most likely will involve a prized prospect such as Red Sox third baseman Andy Marte, or young pitching prospects such as Jonathan Papelbon and Jon Lester, in return. While veteran Boston pitcher Matt Clement has been mentioned in trade rumors involving the Rays, his two-year, $19.25 million contract could be more than the Rays want to add at this point in their makeover.

 

Haha I love how the article is titled, Devil Rays Having Trouble Finding Trade Partners

 

If the Devil Rays FO needs understanding to why no one wants to deal with them, then they really do need help mentally... Lugo, an average shortstop owed $5 million for his last season on his contract is not worth giving Papelbon, Marte or Lester.

 

Why cant they get over their last place selves and accept this trade if any:

 

Red Sox get Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright

 

Tampa Bay get Bronson Arroyo, Kelly Shoppach, Abe Alvarez

[elsrbueno]

http://rays.tbo.com/rays/MGBVRMIZTHE.html

 

 

 

Haha I love how the article is titled, Devil Rays Having Trouble Finding Trade Partners

 

If the Devil Rays FO needs understanding to why no one wants to deal with them, then they really do need help mentally... Lugo, an average shortstop owed $5 million for his last season on his contract is not worth giving Papelbon, Marte or Lester.

 

Why cant they get over their last place selves and accept this trade if any:

 

Red Sox get Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright

 

Tampa Bay get Bronson Arroyo, Kelly Shoppach, Abe Alvarez

 

I honestly think you're offering too much for those 2. Lugo is error prone and like you said: AVERAGE. Gathright is a AAA player right now IMO. He's blazing fast which would be a welcome addition, but does he have the skills offensively to make a contribution?Shoppach is a great defensive catcher even if he never develops a bat, an asset because to me defense behind the plate is SO SO important. Abe Alvarez could make the club this year with its lack of lefthanded relief.

 

For Lugo and Gathright I'd trade Arroyo and Alvarez. If they don't like it-- T.S. Their players aren't that good.

[riverside sluggers]

true, but the deal i had thought of would be better than parting with those 3 untouchables that they think they deserve.

[elsrbueno]

true, but the deal i had thought of would be better than parting with those 3 untouchables that they think they deserve.

 

I absolutely agree with you that it's a BETTER deal than giving up any one of the top 3 of Marte, Papelbon, and Lester.... It's just too much to give for Lugo and Gathright.

[ksushi]

And to what extent does the farm system need protection? JP will likely be a significant contributor this year (either pen or sp) and Lester is likely a year away from contributing.

 

What extent? We don't need to build up our farm system we need to protect it. Do you know what protection means? Lester won't contribute here ever if we have to deal him to fill holes, Papelbon won't do anything if hes playing for another team, and don't count on Marte being a red sox either. This is what I mean by protection. We get millwood, then we have legit starters we can deal without impacting our rotation. We could have dealt Clement and Wells and still been competitive in 06, so unless they plan on starting lester from the get go this year, they can't do that anymore.

 

I don't think Millwood got 5-60 did he? It was my understanding he got 4 -48, and yes I would pay that to protect our farm system.

[jsinger121]

here is the breakdown of millwood's contract

 

Kevin Millwood's five-year, $60 million contract with the Rangers calls for a $15 million signing bonus, payable over an extended length of time, and salaries of $6 million in 2006, $7.5 million in 2007, $8.5 million in 2008, $11 million in 2009 and $12 million in 2010.