vasoxfan

And to what extent does the farm system need protection? JP will likely be a significant contributor this year (either pen or sp) and Lester is likely a year away from contributing.

It also bears mention that Graf and Cora have similar range factor and zone rating at short. But Cora has played about 4 times as many games at SS as Graf. POS Games RF ZR Cora SS 373 4.4 8.6 Graf SS 93 4.8 8.7 If Cora is a legit option at SS, then Graf should at least receive consideration there too.

I believe the 1/6 figure is correct. I do recall that because of arbitration all of that money is not guaranteed. But Graf has value (as pointed out above). It is possible that Lowell could suck royally this year. If so, we need to do some juggling, and Graf's ability to play 1B is valuable. If we move Graf and Lowell is cooked, our only internal option is Marte (which might not be that bad a back-up plan).

There is also an AP report that "the Orioles are on the brink of abandoning their effort to trade disgruntled shortstop Miguel Tejada, who has expressed a desire to leave Baltimore because the team has not done enough to improve itself during the offseason." (http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news;_ylt=Arfg8J4NJV4m7L1R_nvU4mA5nYcB?slug=ap-orioles-burnitz&prov=ap&type=lgns) I would tend to agree, however, that of all the rumors out there the one that makes the most sense (from the O's pov) would be Manny + SP. The O's really do need to improve their SP.

Although Patterson could have a miraculous turnaround (he did put up decent numbers in about 100 AB in AAA last year) we already have a slick defensive CF with good offensive ml numbers in Adam Stern. Why would we trade for another who has already failed in 2000 ML AB?

Patterson is terrible. His career OPS is 700. His 2005 season was amazingly bad (OPS of 600). We would basically be trading away 1/4 of our offense for a (albeit talented) pitcher with health concerns. We would be better off keeping Manny and playing Adam Stern in CF. The only Manny trade that makes sense now is one that fills a position of serious need ( SS or CF) with a top notch player.

Before I start on my attempt at a line-up, I think some notes are in order: 1. The first position we need to solve is CF. Right now Adam Stern is our CF, and I think that's probably not ideal. 2. If we solve CF via trade, we may need to give up starting pitching (Arroyo or Clement), in which case a Wells trade becomes much harder to swallow (unless a Wells trade brings back proven bullpen quality, in which case Papelbon could start). 3. If we solve CF via FA, the only choices left appear to be Wilson and Byrnes. Wilson has knee questions, but is better overall offensively. Byrnes gives solid defense at any OF spot and can hit LHP. Ideally, he is a 4OF platoon mate with Nixon. 4. Our second highest priority is SS. Right now, our shortstop is some SS cocktail of Cora/ Graf/Pedroia. 5. I politely disagree with what people are saying here and in other threads regarding Loretta at SS. The last time he played SS for more than a handful of games was 2000. (see http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/stats?playerId=3343&context=fielding). Furthermore, his career ZR at SS is 805, which is unimpressive (not that ZR is the best stat out there). 6. The FA options at short are probably no better than Cora/Graf/Pedroia. Both A. Gonzalez and Royce Clayton are terrible offensively. However, Gonzalez could potentially benefit a little from Fenway given his tendency to hit with power only to LF. Still, that is probably wishful thinking. 7. Stern, being a Rule 5 pickup, needs to be on the 25 man roster to start the season (I believe for all of April, although I could be wrong here). Otherwise he is gone. Given that he has lasted this long, it seems that the RS like him, so I assume he stays. 8. Unless miracles happen, Youkilis is our starting 1B. However, he has little experience at the position and he struggles at Fenway. Has anyone noticed that his career SLG pct at Fenway is a paltry 379 versus 444 away? This difference accounts for almost the entirety of this 824 v 751 split in OPS. Were he platooned with JT Snow, we could produce a pretty decent 1B. Youk would make all starts on the road and some at home (particularly against LHP for which his career OPS is 841). Snow would be a defensive replacement in late innings and would start some games at Fenway, particularly against solid RHP. Even if Snow is only good for his 2005 stats, his OPS against LHP in 2005 was 725, which is reasonably close to Youk’s 757 career (note that if you condition on Youk facing RHP AT FENWAY, which I cannot find, you will certainly get a number less than 757 and potentially less than 725). 9. Lowell is still a huge question mark. For that reason alone Graffanino has value. Although he is a career utilityman, which we have a surplus of, I think Sox will keep him. 10. Manny will not be traded. Given our offensive question marks, he is more valuable to us than ever. 11. I assume Marte spends the year in AAA. He’s young and, by all accounts I’ve read, had a tough going when Atlanta tried him in the OF. After my long-winded attempt to make sense of where we stand this offseason, I think we most likely will look this in 2006 (assuming we are unable to trade for a suitable CF): Starters: Schilling, Beckett, Wells (unless traded), Wake, Clement, Arroyo (only If Wells is traded) Pen: Foulke, Timlin, Papelbon, Mota, Seanez, Arroyo (unless Wells trade)/DiNardo or Other (if Wells trade) 11 Pitchers total Position Players (assuming no CF trade): OF: Manny, Wilson, Stern, Nixon, Byrnes IF Lowell, Loretta, Cora, Graf, Youkilis, Snow Pedroia/Machado (only as a late call up if Stern has a miserable time in April and May) C: Varitek, Backup (TBD) DH Ortiz 14 Total (noting that Pedroia/Machado would only be called up if others were sent down /DFA).