Is Red Sox Pitching Coach Andrew Bailey The Right Man For The Job?

The hiring of Andrew Bailey helped signal a change of guard with Red Sox pitching. Dave Bush was okay at best, and when looking at the successful pitchers that he could get nothing out of (I’m looking at you, Ryan Brasier) it was obvious that there was a disconnect somewhere in the pitcher's meetings and routines. The tandem of Bailey and Craig Breslow gave hope to the Sox faithful that maybe a focus on pitching was on the day one agenda. Although the second half of this season has been filled with once-reliable starters sprinting past their career innings high and bullpen implosion after bullpen implosion, there’s a reason for hope going into the 2025 season. 

We are looking at the season numbers, and we can see that despite the second-half issues, Bailey’s impact has been profound on the staff. With 22 games left in the season, there’s room for these numbers to change, but overall, we see positive growth from Dave Bush's last year to Andrew Bailey's first year. While there are some declines in performance, notably the drop in K/9 and WAR, BABIP is down, and the ERA has improved even with the second-half numbers factored in. To at least some degree, the Bailey lab is working. 

This led me to examine Bailey’s first two years as a pitching coach with the San Francisco Giants courtesy of FanGraphs' stat library. Although one was the COVID-shortened 2020 season, I was hoping the data from those two seasons could help provide the blueprint for the 2025 season in Boston. 

Taking into account a 60-game season in 2020, if we compare the 2019 pre-Bailey numbers to that season, we notice a decrease in WAR and an increase in ERA, K/9, and BB/9. However, from 2020 to 2021, the Giants had one of the best baseball pitching staffs, sporting a 22 WAR, a massively improved ERA, a lower BB/9, and a higher K/9. This shows that when surrounded by pitchers who buy into the system, there have been some rumblings of certain guys in the pen not fully believing in Bailey’s system. When given an entire off-season with a rotation intact, Bailey can indeed make magic on the pitching mound. 

Keeping in mind that the Sox went into the season with Lucas Giolito projected to be the actual number one pitcher of the staff, Tanner Houck fighting for a rotation spot, Brayan Bello stepping up into his brand new contract, and Garrett Whitlock being shuttled from the rotation to the pen. Back between injuries, it is no real surprise that Bailey's plans for the season went off the rails before the season could even get underway. Give him time to work his magic fully, he picked the Red Sox job over higher-profile offers for a reason. He sees something with the Red Sox pitching staff and believes reinforcements are coming. No one expected Houck to take a giant leap forward this season and force the conversation that his name should be in the rotation for as long as he is in Boston, but imagine this step with a healthy Giolito to help anchor the rotation.

Looking at the blueprint, the future of the pitching staff looks bright with Andrew Bailey at the helm. As long as Craig Breslow is allowed to deal from Boston's prospect capital for young, controllable arms and Bailey has an entire offseason program to work his magic with the arms currently in the rotation, there’s reason to be optimistic about the future of this staff coming along at the same time the young core finally reaches the majors together. Hopefully, that paves the way back to AL East titles and World Series championships for many years to come.