Has Brayan Bello Turned the Corner?

The Red Sox awarded Brayan Bello a six-year, $55-million contract before the start of the 2024 season. While the deal was surprising, it signaled that the team believed that he could turn into a front-end starter based on last year’s starts. With Chris Sale gone and Lucas Giolito on the IL for the season, Bello was suddenly the Opening Day starter and the de facto ace of the staff. After a promising start to the season against what was supposed to be a potent Seattle offense, mid-game outbursts took over the headlines and a lack of maturity was blamed for his dip in performance. However, going into an July series in Miami, Alex Cora decided to give Bello multiple days off, in part, to reset his mind. It paid off. Bello turned in one of his best starts of the season, striking out seven Marlins over 6.2 innings and allowing seven hits, one walk, and one earned run. Although he's weathered some rough starts sin, Bello appeared to finally turn the corner that night in Miami, beginning his evolution into a potential top of the rotation piece; not an ace, but a number two starter.

If we look at the numbers heading into that July 3 start, we see a starter still trying to figure it out. During that stretch, Bello started 14 games, going 7-5 with a 5.55 ERA and a 4.85 FIP. He averaged five innings a game and ran a K/9 of 8.07. Bello got knocked around a lot. When he would give up the long ball, he would sulk and slam his glove on the ground. Cora, who held Bello’s feet to the fire on more than one occasion over the last two seasons, never wavered in his belief of his young starter. Bello was held accountable, sure, but the trust was always there. Demonstrating that his strength as a personnel manager rivals his acumen as an in-game manager, Cora decided to give Bello an extra three days of rest and that proved to be the thing that locked everything into place.

Beginning with that dominant performance against the Marlins, we see a vastly improved pitcher. Bello has gone 7-2, with a quality start in seven of his 14 starts. His K/9 is up to 8.63 while his ERA is down to 3.76 and his FIP to 3.82. Sure, the five walks against the Orioles were not ideal, but the command will improve with time. He’s shown flashes of the ability to combine two skills: inducing softly-hit grounders and making batters look foolish swinging at his sinker for strikeouts. A young, controlled pitcher who can do both and has the confidence of both the front office and the manager is not something to ignore.

Bello is trending in the right direction. He doesn’t have to be the ace of the staff. The potential is there, but as long as the front office makes smart decisions and trades from the wealth of prospects to bolster the pitching staff this offseason, Bello can slot into the number two or three starter role and flourish. Who knows? He may just live up to the hype Hall of Famer Pedro Martinez heaped upon him this past offseason.