5GoldGlovesOF,75

I know some people here were apoplectic when I mentioned that I could see Cora back with Boston in the future... but now Merloni can see it: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/merloni-why-alex-cora-could-return-red-sox-manager-2021

A year ago the Sox were hoping for Pedroia to start 100 games. Before long, Holt's son scratched his eyeball and Nunez forgot the take sign. Leon was cut, Travis started the second game of the season at 1B, Swihart the third game at C... Pearce didn't even play until the second week (and little after that). DD was still counting on Thornburg to be a viable relief option. They're all gone, and so is Porcello -- maybe the most important guy to replace, and he had a 5.52 ERA... Even Bloom's no-names have to have a decent chance to at least equal their production.

I think all Sox fans should be prepared for the worst possible report and punishments -- Cora ban, coaches implicated, lost draft picks... even if there is no evidence like youtubes of banging, we have to expect Manfred will underscore his agenda by hammering the felonious two-timing Bosox. I would think he'd want to wrap up the whole debacle just before spring training and the new season, so baseball can revert focus to the game (and good old-fashioned sign-stealing with binoculars, telescopes and magnifying glasses). The Sox probably have some info and are waiting out the timetable before naming an internal managerial candidate who may be judged guilty by investigation. Don't be surprised if the tireless and tieless front office goes all in for a good start to 2020 to soften some of the PR hit, and also shoots for a strong finish to ensure the lost draft picks aren't in the top 20.

Bongs

Smokescreen set by Manfred...

The article in The Athletic that forced Manfred to concoct his two-team scandal with convenient patsy opens with this third sentence of the intro: "But inside the game, there is a belief that is treated by players and staff as fact: That illegal sign stealing, particularly through advanced technology, is everywhere." The Yankees are untouchable, scandal-proof, the Teflon Donalds, in this whole set-up. The MLB desperately needs New York to win again. I would even venture to speculate that some owners from other teams would agree, and even have incentives; isn't the take from merchandising split equally?

I'll take my chances for a better season. But good luck assuming another combined 10 WAR from Tauchman, Urshela, Ford and Maybin. Even DJ (as good as he is), coming off a career year at 6 WAR... it's not automatic anyone repeats a career year. I remember I thought New York was golden when they traded for Trout at the All-Star break... Steve in 1987 was 6-3 with a 3 ERA in the NL when he joined the first-place Yanks. Trout went 0-4 with a 6 ERA, and NY limped home in fourth place.

Wow, that was so generous of a Yankees fan to try to help the Red Sox become an absolute non-factor in the AL East for the next decade. Trade the entire core, because we can easily replace it with other clubs' minor leaguers. Since what the hell, everyone knows that Urshela and Gleybar are already better than Devers and Bogey, Sanchez is a better catcher than Vazquez, and the outfield of Judge, Stanton and Gardner is all-around better than Betts, Beni and JBJ...

It's a good take -- and all six homegrown guys that Boston kept and were on the field for the last out in LA are still here...

By the way, lux tax or not, future starting pitching may have to come from either trades or Bloom's moundsmen in the rough. The best of the '21 free agent class -- arms around 30 -- are Robbie Ray, Bauer and Stroman... good, but not Sale or Cole material. There are more options in '22, but again no earth-shakers: Jon Gray, Vince Velazquez, Folty, Matz, McCullers, Urena, Rodon... Maybe, Noah Song will be honorably discharged by then.

I already proposed this: Devers and Barnes for four Braves prospects -- Pache and Langeliers (catcher), and Atlanta's top two starters, Ian Anderson and Kyle Wright. Move Dalbec to third. But I also said the only way I'd trade Devers is if they knew they could lock up Betts...

I'm no Dombro fan, but Kimbrel and Price were both needed at the time and ultimately contributed to three firsts and a ring. At the time I was in favor of the Kimbrel deal and against the Price signing; I preferred Jordan Zimmerman (shows how smart I am). I was totally in on Sale, and glad we kept Benintendi over Moncada, partially on the basis that I'd rather have a guy who was a college star as an underclassman than a kid who blew some of his signing bonus on fancy cars with custom hood ornaments of his initials (like any of that matters). I also think the Eovaldi for Beeks trade won the pennant and the World Series. I don't regret that the Sox couldn't add a top arm to their staff this winter -- not just Cole or MadBum; even a Ryu, Wheeler, Ordorizzi could've helped. Because Boston did the right thing investing in starting pitching a year ago. In hindsight, tons of fans are down on both the Sale and Eovaldi signings... but look back at threads at the time and see how few thought it was a bad idea to lock up studs who just won a title. As much of a risk Sale was to injury, there was equal risk that an unsigned Sale would have the usual Sale year in 2019 and command Cole money. Remember, he had finished in the top 5 in Cy Young voting the past six years in a row and was coming off a season where only one pitcher in the AL had a higher WAR (Snell). Eovaldi was injury-prone, but bidders had good reason to think he had turned the corner with the workhorse durability displayed in the second half through the postseason. Comebacks from these two guys might surprise fanatics, but I think people in the industry, especially in Beantown, expect bounce-backs and would be surprised if they didn't get at least one...

The main problem with not fielding a contender is that it is our money as far as supporting the club. Fans will still take in a game or two at Fenway because it's a fun thing to do outside when the weather is nice. But the big loss of revenues -- and I think this has been said -- will be with NESN. It's just too easy to turn off four-hour games that don't matter.

The reason for that is simple: Manfred gave Astros players immunity if they named superiors -- the feds let mob underlings go state witness to take down the kingpins. And how stunning the guys they named over and over were a coach and a player that no longer work for Houston. The Astros didn't throw Cora and Beltran under the bus; they buried their carcasses under a Greyhound station.

If we could trade JBJ, we'd reset, this year. I figured with Margot in tow, that would be the next move... Then Bloom would just have to replace Price's starts -- 22 per the last three years (via trade, opener or premature promotion)... and we're back in business -- and open for biz next winter.

To SDP Price, Chavis & Walden for Yates, Margot & Myers I like this one. Myers replaces Chavis as a first-base option or bat off the bench (or someone to dfa in a year); Yates is an upgrade for Walden and a good closer; Margot is a decent fourth outfielder and possible replacement for a starter. How much does it reduce payroll?

Dustin Pedroia was the Red Sox' best all-around second baseman of my lifetime and maybe all-time. Bobby Doerr is in the Hall, selected by the Veterans Committee, but writers gave him MVP votes in nine years and he was an eight-time All-Star. Pedey got MVP votes in three years and was a four-time All-Star, but also played in an era when there were almost twice as many teams as in Doerr's career (which also included integration in only the last five of his 14 seasons). Offensively, the two second sackers are close: Doerr hit more triples and homers, Pedroia hit more doubles and stole more bases. Doerr averaged 95 runs scored, Pedroia 99. Doerr also drove in over 100 runs a year, but you would, too, if you had the greatest on-base machine in the history of the game hitting in front of you. Percentages are pick-ems: Doerr hit .288 with .362 OBP and .461 Slugging; Pedroia hit .299/.365/.439. What sets them apart is defense. Doerr played 13 full seasons and committed an average of 16 errors... Pedroia was a regular in 11 and committed an average of 5...

C'mon, Moon. You know I'm talking about the "talented regulars". The core is still there...

Price or Eovaldi and JBJ won't do it? Isn't the payroll number the MLB looks at the same at season's end as the beginning (I understand that acquisitions can alter it, but with additions also come subtractions?)?

I totally agree with this. I can't imagine he'd agree to do the company a big favor by transferring his office to another part of the country for six months only to come back next winter. A club that once fought him -- and lost -- on arbitration should now bend over backwards to accommodate Betts all season if they want him to re-up.

I think the Sox reset by the end of the season, so they won't be taxed $100 mil and lose draft picks when they back up the truck for Mookie. Then they'll have another couple years or a new CBA before they have to worry about resetting again.

I just keep going back to the law of averages -- and this -- how many fans and experts expected the Red Sox to contend a year ago? And now, how many expect them not to? I hope most would admit and remember the answer to the first was just about everyone. This season Boston returns the same basic group of talented regulars and starting pitchers that set that franchise record for wins just two years ago. Forget 108, but not even 90? It all comes down to the mound... some point to '18 heroics from Sale, Price and Eovaldi and hope for more; others look at injuries from '19 and predict even less. Is it unreasonable to expect something in between? After all, the Big Three has averaged a combined 39 wins per year in their careers (including last season's MASH unit when they combined for only 15). Don't forget the Red Sox won 93 in each of '17 and '16 -- the former with Price on the DL, the latter with Sale pitching for Chicago. First base lost its combo of All-Star/WS MVP (for now). Second base has been an issue-- at least turning the DP, since DP himself has been out. The Sox also lost some valuable arms in Kimbrel, Kelly and Porcello -- none are as good as they were, but all are casualties of constricted payroll... which has prevented replacing them with name pitchers. Less glamorous alternatives are a facet of roster refinement that Sox fans are just not used to under current ownership. This is where we'll have to wait and see, and trust in Chaim Bloom... and not doom and gloom. Pitchers and catchers are coming soon -- even if we don't recognize them!

Say the Sox start strong and play about 10 games over .500 through July, enough to stay in contention for a playoff berth. Which would you prefer: Bloom "buying" at the deadline, maybe for one more starter or back end reliever, or promoting from within? It may depend on whether a team is just trying to qualify for the postseason or making an actual run at a ring... Strength of competition also has to be considered; is someone running away with the division? A final factor for this Red Sox squad is the chance it may be the last hurrah for the current core...

Eight pitchers, mostly relievers! Bloom is obviously preparing for the new three-batter minimum rule... get ready for a couple three-man rotations: starters, and then openers/middlers/and twiddlers.

February starts a week from Saturday and what you see is what you got. The Red Sox didn't make any major moves, hung on to all their good players, and this is what they're going with. But I choose not to judge them based on one mediocre year, even if it is the most recent season, to convince myself things are going to get worse rather than better. My optimism is based instead on the larger sample size of the past half decade of accomplishments from Boston's professional stars, along with the potential to improve of those not yet in their primes... Which prediction a year ago would have seemed more unreasonable: that a team that finished first three years in a row would limp into third place in 2019?... or... that a team that finished first three years in a row, then limped into third, would bounce back to contention in 2020? Who knows what the Red Sox roster will look like in '21 (I just can't see how anyone can think the Sox are going to be able to replace their top players from the best club in franchise history and actually improve). I'm focused on 2020.