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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Don't forget Mookie's diminutive frame has also had three more months of aging breakdowns since last season. -
Reverse psychosis won't work on Bloom, either. Keeping Betts, trying to resign him, and getting a draft pick if we can't is better than filling holes with more mediocrity this year. Like Notin says, there's not much left on this free agent market anyway. But there will be in the 2021 offseason, which the Sox can spend on with the $400 mil they save if Mookie leaves. NY smoked Boston last year, and Boston smoked NY the year before. Assuming all the Yankee breakout benchwarmers will repeat 2019 is akin to assuming all the Red Sox veteran pitchers will repeat 2018. With scenario is more realistic? There are new dynamics in the Bronx, with Torres at short, Stanton in the outfield and a new stater replacing German. Cole won 20 for a better team last year, while German won 18... The juggernaut lost German, Didi and Romine, and gained Cole. That doesn't seem like that much of an upgrade, realistically speaking.
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I'll take my chances with the young core group about to enter its prime headlined by a future Hall of Famer. The reality is the Red Sox are not trading him for more piles to make 2020 easier for their mighty rivals.
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
It's going to be painful enough for Bloom to pull the trigger on a MLB-ready haul of actual good prospects for Betts, because such a deal signals punting 2020. That's about the only thing I agree with, to paraphrase one poster's cautions -- "people won't like the trade at the time, but it will work out later". I won't name names of these highly-touted youngsters that Bloom has to hold out for, but by now we're all familiar with them. I trust Bloom not dealing a Hall of Fame fan favorite for a washed up outfielder, an inconsistent bullpen arm and someone's 4th-best minor league pitcher. As for Price, he will be dumped for next to nothing (maybe even for a guy the Sox wind up cutting) and we'll move on. -
Best quote of the weekend. Let's trade a Hall of Famer for mediocrity so we can free up money to sign more mediocrity; thanks for the tips, Yankee fans.
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I am not without hap, but I will be if the Red Sox break up their still-young core -- that no GM traded in pursuit of a title -- that already helped Boston finish first three straight years... and is just about to enter its prime. That includes Bogaerts and Betts, who won two Silver Slugger Awards each by age 25 (23 for X)... and Benintendi, who at age 22 became the youngest Sox player to homer in a postseason game... and Devers, who broke that record the very next year at age 20. I'm not just a fan addict; I read and consider all the comments on several forums, and hope that I admit mistakes and can be persuaded to change my opinions. Since people here are weighing odds of likely outcomes, I say there's a better than even chance that Mookie, Bogie, Benny and Rafie all improve in 2020 (in one aspect or another; defense on the left side, overall play from LF, more consistent at bats from RF)... providing a solid foundation for a group looking to rebound from an offyear after the best onyear in team history. I give the following a worse than even chance to improve: Vazquez, Bradley, JD (all over or pushing 30, and maybe too superball reliant), and Chavis (soph slump, which began in frosh year). As for the Big Three starters returning to their prime 2018 forms, I'd say Eovaldi is better than even and Price worse than even. I'm also confident that Sale is still Sale, but can only say 50-50 because of injury concerns. Just remember that Sale was still dominant at times in '19 -- like the entire two-month stretch of May-June when he held opposing hitters to a .185 batting average; in those 11 starts Sale's record was only 3-2. His strikeouts to walks ratio for the season was 5.89, better than his career 5.37 -- which is the best in MLB history. If Sale had better run support last year his record could have easily been reversed from 6-11 to 11-6. Then, upon reflection, quotes would've changed from "Sale was a problem" to "Sale had a problem" (as in health)... -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Go for it now, and not just because I'm old, or that 2021 may be threatened by global warming, a super volcano, solar flare, uncivil war, etc... The Red Sox have a future Hall of Famer playing in his salary drive season in 2020, and that prospect looks like much more fun to follow instead of any other acquired prospect who has a 99.9% chance of never being as good. And I'm not worried about restocking the farm system, because I think that will be a forte of Bloom's (and if they happen to suck in the next year or two, welcome the higher draft picks). My mug is half-full and I still haven't had a drink all year... -
I'm going with the strategy of resetting so they can sign Betts. This has to be an option unless he is refusing to stay in Boston -- I've never thought the Sox couldn't afford Mookie or would choose not to pay him; on this I'm taking their word for it. He's too important as a fan favorite and as a contributor to winning (which ultimately brings in the most fans).
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But we'll never really know if Dombro signed the guys last winter that he could, partially because he couldn't sign the one that a lot of us preferred. We do know the Red Sox have tried to extend Betts, who admits he turned down 200 mil at a time when a lot of fellow stars were signing extensions for half that, like Bregman and Acuna.
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Derek Lowe was an All-Star closer and All-Star starter, but his 2004 postseason may be overlooked by history, as the only pitcher ever to win the clincher in all three rounds of the ALDS, ALCS and WS. What he did in Game Seven at Yankee Stadium on two days rest had me shaking my head in disbelief, and it should never be forgotten that Lowe was the victor in the greatest win in modern Red Sox lore... ... that didn't end an 86-year-old curse, but finally stopped curses from a million fans.
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From a talent standpoint, Betts is a better all-around player -- right now. But Betts is better than just about all but a handful of MLBers. Mookie's six great seasons have him on a HOF track. Rafie would have to repeat his 2019 for another half decade to equal Betts' production... but what if Devers cranks 90 extra base hits for the next decade? On the bases, Devers is deceivingly fast, but Betts is elite. In rightfield, Mookie is "The best I've seen," according to Showalter... ever. Rafie is improving at third, and makes stellar plays at times. Then you have the small-body breakdown myth of an athlete who has always been in Olympian shape vs. a big-bodied 22-year-old who was already ordered to watch his diet. It's a tough call, and really distasteful that fans of one of the richest franchises in one of the largest markets have to even consider. There's something wrong with a sport whose teams can't keep their young core of fan favorites intact... especially clubs that can actually afford to.
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Trading Devers isn't even my own idea, but I forget the writer who suggested it in the fall (someone from a paper on dirtdogs). At the time, I torched the guy. But if the goal is to reset and rebuild a contender as quickly as possible -- with young, controllable depth -- then no player can provide that in one return-haul fell swoop like Devers. GMs don't want to give anything up for one year of Mookie, but they all would for five years of Rafie, especially a contender with a wide-open window. Like Atlanta... If the Braves don't re-sign Donaldson, Devers would be an upgrade and add to a young core of talent: Acuna, Albies, Swanson, Riley, Soroka, Fried, Folty. LA won't part with their top prospects, but maybe Atlanta would, especially since Devers is around the same age as most of them. The trade I proposed -- and that the simulator accepted -- was Devers and Barnes for Newcomb, Anderson, Pache and Langeliers... giving the Sox two starting pitchers, a centerfielder and a catcher. Will any of them be any good? Who knows, but at least there would be viable replacements for Price and JBJ, instant hope for the near future and maybe even the now. But remember: I never deal Devers unless I know Betts is or will be locked up.
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Agreed. NONE of a team's young, core position players that fans identify with should be... But if the Red Sox are going to give up on 2020 -- and no matter how anyone spins it, trading their best player about to enter his prime announces just that -- then the reset becomes a rebuild. And if you're going to blow it up, then no one is untouchable -- especially a guy who could net you the best prospect depth (who also plays an organizational position of strength), which in Chapter One of the modern GM handbook is the first step in expediting club status back to contention. This is how bad this offseason is until something actually happens.
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Only if Betts admits intentions of not signing in Boston (which, I admit, makes no sense for a player who would lose leverage with suitors of places he prefers). But what if the Sox make an offer that Betts agrees to? It would still be contingent upon the reset, which would likely mean moving a high-priced pitcher and JBJ. Then they'd have to replace at least a starter and an outfielder -- hopefully with young controllables that could help restock depth and sustain contention. At that point, it may be practical instead to deal the one Red Sox with the most trade value: Devers. I hope not, because the kid looks like he could develop into a lefty combo of Cabrera/Beltre...
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Cole was great for two years for a great team, not so great before that for a not so great team. But neither locale included the pressures of NYC and the largest contract of all-time. He certainly makes the Yankees look better on paper, but nothing's guaranteed... Remember Suzyn Waldman's rant in '07: "Oh my goodness gracious! Of all the dramatic things I've ever seen -- Roger Clemens standing in George's box, announcing he is back!" Ol Rog went 6-6 with a 4.15... Meanwhile, Boston swept the World Series in four. -
I didn't see many names in today's Tomase column, just "No top-tier prospects. No impact players"... further down he mentions Gonsolin, but that's it. Here's the link: https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/case-packaging-mookie-betts-and-david-price-straight-salary-dump. I can't say I'll believe it when I see it, because if Bloom pulls the trigger on a Betts "dump" -- even at the trade deadline next summer -- I'll still be in disbelief.
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Pollock in the 2019 NLCS: 11-for-13... that's STRIKEOUTS (his batting average was .000). My fingers are almost typeless. The worst-case Betts scenarios are picking up steam; Tomase just took a Betts-Price dump that I wont waste time linking because he basically copied and pasted half-a-dozen talksox proposals. Let's just say if Mike Corleone was running the Dodgers, negotiations went something like this: "My offer is this -- nothing."
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Houston trusted Cole so much they left him in the bullpen in the last game and let six other piles pitch -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
"Let’s be realistic in this thread, as it is the “realistic view of 2020” thread. Is Bloom playing this offseason like he’s going for it? Clearly not. If he was going for it, he wouldn’t have let Porcello walk and replaced him with a cheaper pile of horseshit that’s less durable. Holt walked and he’s replaced with a versatile but far less offensively gifted pile of s*** in Peraza. Are the Sox a championship caliber squad? The Sox were an 84 win team. They got smoked by two teams in the division and the top team just added the best pitcher in baseball." Lighten up, Francis. They give awards to the best pitchers in baseball; they're called Cy Young Awards. One of them -- who has won three Cys -- beat your key acquisition in Game One of the World Series. That was the game when old man Zimmerman took your pile deep, then a 21-year-old hit one over the train tracks. Ya, I know Cole won Game 5; he beat the immortal Joe Ross. -
A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Then the Dodgers aren't getting Betts. No one -- especially not a first-year Chief Officer -- trades a generational talent for mediocrity or past-their-prime bodies. It'll be depressing enough if Mookie is traded for any team's top prospects, because it will most likely take a lot of time waiting to see if even one is actually a good, much less great, MLBer. The Sox will have to be overwhelmed to move Mookie; laugh all you want, but at least three of those four names would have to be included. And I don't care -- nor, I bet Bloom does, either -- if some data site gives them a value of kajillion dollars because they're only. just. prospects. It actually made me laugh when some posters were adamant that LA would never even deal Seager for Betts straight up; if the Dodgers had Lindor, they'd trade Seager for Betts in a second, because at that point Mookie would become so much more valuable to them. How many GMs trying to win it all in 2020 wouldn't do Lux and Seager for Lindor and Betts? Which pair would make LA the hands-down favorite? -
Boston can't and won't move Betts unless it gets an overpay, a haul of MLB-ready prospects. Otherwise, the Sox would be telling fans they're giving up on 2020. And Red Sox fans won't accept -- or support -- a bridge year. They can move a high-Priced pitcher, who probably won't contribute an entire injury-free season, hit the reset, and still contend. They can even trade JBJ and still compete. But "dumping" Betts would be raising a white flag that nobody wants, not even posters here with an eye towards 2021 and beyond.
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So, Bloom has basically replaced all the more expensive guys he could spare for cheaper options: Porcello, Holt, and Leon for Perez, Peraza, and Plawecki... Plus, Moreland and Pearce for Chavis and maybe Dalbec. If this was a baseball card trade, it would be commons for commons, all doubles. Don't want to use up any valuable resources while leaving room in your binder for that gem mint Betts autograph (on a contract).
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"We have the money in the budget, just give him what he wants," said Theo Epstein, on draft deadline signing day, 2011 (Speier, Homegrown, 2018, p. 27). Speaking words of wisdom -- get Mookie...
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I'm beginning to sense that one is dependent upon the other, and that that may be Boston's plan; the Sox have to reset so they can re-up Mookie... and not lose another hundred million in taxes, draft picks and additional funding for international signings. It's kind of ridiculous since they haven't signed any major free agents from other teams since JD nearly two years ago... and before that the last significant contributor to a title was Moreland in 2016. But them's the rules.
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A Realistic View at 2020: Part I
5GoldGlovesOF,75 replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
2020 derision. Just kidding.

