5GoldGlovesOF,75

The Boone brothers discussed the topic while announcing the '17 World Series when McCullers Jr. was pitching to Cody Bellinger.

That means David Price should be Cy Young because he took the whole season off. What about all the players whose bodies were just warming up. It's only a good point if we also consider that those who sucked may have just had slow starts. And I am not defending the 2020 Sox. But all these arguments that certain players are no good anymore because of their '20 stats could also be used to dismiss guys who were great. In August of '73 -- after 108 games -- the Mets were dead last, 11.5 GB. They won the NL pennant and made it to Game Seven of the World Series.Ya Gotta Believe...

They won't admit it, but they're no different than any other club whose pitching staff strains every fiber in their shoulders and elbows one month longer than usual to finally win it all. Bauer might never be as good again as in 2020. But if a few youngsters burst onto the scene, like Josiah Gray, they could still repeat.

It's all good as long as we all admit that we're all guessing what will happen, even those armed with stats. Think the Dodgers are a sure thing again? How many NL teams that won the World Series the past 100 years do you think felt confident that they'd repeat? Almost all of them? Only one actually did go back-to-back (hint: they beat the Red Sox, and the next year beat the Yankees).

Not in the Houston games I've watched. There's also this: Correa = positive dWAR for six seasons; Bogaerts = negative dWAR for six seasons. Correa did move to third on the Puerto Rican tournament team that Cora GMed (but it was so Lindor could play short).

If things go as bad as wishful Yankee fans think, one or two of the latter three guys on your list will be wearing different uniforms.

That clever analytics dept., using the dead-pull righty shift. No one is moving anywhere this season while Cora seeks to rejuvenate his boys. If the team is somehow brutal again, and Devers leads the MLB in Es again (his bat was so "bad" last year that he was still a positive WAR), and X's range grows more brittle, then -- and only then -- might Bloom initiate Plan B... which may include moving positions, moving players to other clubs for mega-prospects, and actually signing a big-money free agent star for the infield a year from now.

I remember how terrible he was in '18, cranking the three-run homer off Verlander that won the pennant, then delivering the clutch pinch-single in the 9th to drive in the winning run in Game Four of the World Series.

Wait -- did the Red Sox announce they are moving X to third this year? Who's playing short? Where is Devers playing? I also seem to recall when Bogie first came up and played third for about a month, he won a World Series.

Leiter. In the MLB, these sons of the fathers that make it are often good bets: Bonds, Griffey, Fielder?, Tatis, Mahomes (wha?)... grandson of Yaz... with the Toronto trio and Witt Jr. on deck. Would anyone gamble a future pick on D'Angelo Oritz?

These are my top four right now: Rocker is everybody's #1, so there's no way three other clubs pass on him. Leiter has the pedigree, and he just may be available. But I really think this year's college season, if completed, will play a big part in reshuffling the rankings, depending on player performance. Who knows, maybe even a summer league will raise a guy's stock, since the draft isn't until July again. From what I read, the two best position players -- in regards to hit tools and future stardom -- look like Fabian and Del Castillo. I'm leaning towards either one over Leiter, but only after what the imprecise science of drafts reveals in my recent study of Top 10s.

Here are the "aces" drafted and where they were picked in the Top 10 the 16 years from 2000 to 2016: #1s -- Price, Strasburg, Cole; 2 -- Prior, Verlander; 3 -- Bauer; 6 -- Grienke, Andrew Miller (became an ace reliever for a few years); 7 -- Kershaw, Harvey, Fried, Nola; 10 -- Lincecum, Bumgarner. A lot of other pitchers who flopped were drafted ahead of those guys. Best class had to be 2006, when Miller, Kershaw and Lincecum went 6, 7 and 10... and Scherzer was 11. Just to show how unpredictable this all is, these four pitchers were chosen 1, 2, 4 and 5: Luke Hochevar KC, Greg Reynolds Col, Brad Lincoln Pitt, and Brandon Morrow Seattle (Tampa took Longoria at 3).

I want a guarantee that Devers gets up in the first inning. Of anyone in the lineup, Rafie has the potential to crush one at any time, and grabbing a quick-strike lead just seems to matter more in the modern age of bullpen game plans. I especially want him batting in the first in double-headers (seven inning games)!

I'm not disagreeing, but just assuming GMs and front offices have groups of players targeted beyond the now, with plan As, plan Bs, plan Cs, etc. I can't imagine an organization saying, "We can't afford to spend this winter, but next year we can buy what we need", without eyeing specific possibilities and especially, player availability. This is not the same as like shopping, say, for clothes. For example, fans can always buy pants... maybe we'll get one more year out of those worn jeans, and upgrade next year. But if GMs wait too long, there may only be shorts left for sale. They have to look ahead (which is why we're getting suspicious something is wrong with the unsigned Odorizzi).

I was just using Soto as an example. But we all saw the big whiteboards with players names ranked in columns on Moneyball. You just know these clever analytics departments have boards all over the conference room, arranged chronologically, adjacent to each other, with year-by-year projected lineups and rotations, based on player contract years, ETAs of prospects, and potential free agent signings and/or trade targets. If they didn't, they'd be less prepared than those that do... I bet some intern's job is to periodically update the boards, rearranging names according to the latest transactions data (or like when the police update their crime family charts after a boss gets locked up or whacked).

For all we know, the longterm plan may include making a run at Juan Soto in five years. In the meantime, the Sox could have Big Papi building a rapport with the budding billionaire, extolling the virtues of a passionate New England fanbase (they're both from Santo Domingo). And then Boston can pay him more money than Mookie, who may have earned a few more rings and awards -- even though Soto will never be the runner or defender that Betts is.

With the moves they kept making, the Red Sox were definitely going for it heading into -- and throughout -- 2018. But based on the contract extensions heading into 2019, I do think they were planning on sustainability. We can argue in hindsight of the wisdom of those contracts, but the front office, the team, and the fans certainly thought the Sox would continue to contend for another ring, at least in '19.

In an attempt to get an idea of the chances of choosing an actual future star in the draft, I looked up the history of MLB drafts from 2000 to 2015 (I stopped there because players in '16 and beyond are just beginning to make an impact). I counted all pitchers and position players chosen, and noted whether they became at least good starting regulars in the bigs. Pitchers were drafted most often in the Top 10: out of 160 picks, 87 were pitchers... and so far, 14 can arguably be considered aces. Of those 14, only 4 were the first pitchers picked in their year, including Price, Strasburg and Cole at Number 1 overall (Mark Prior, who had one great year before getting hurt, was a Number 2). In comparison, 21 of the 73 position players picked in the Top 10 are considered studs in the majors. My ratings are conservative; for example, in '15 I counted Bregman the lone star over other regulars like Swanson, Benintendi, Kyle Tucker, Ian Happ, Brendan Rogers. The math (if done correctly) reveals these odds: for teams picking a pitcher in the Top 10 -- finding an ace is at 16%. For those clubs picking a position player, the odds of choosing a great regular is 29%... Overall, the odds of drafting a future ace pitcher in 16 years of Top 10 picks is 8%, while the odds of drafting a great regular is 18%.

No, I think the translation for Villar is like village or hamlet. Some may view Villar as a veritable fortress around the bag...

But we signed a guy named Hiro for the pen. At least Bloom didn't sign a Villain.

Wonder why Odorizzi, the consensus second-best free agent starter, hasn't signed yet...

JBJ was the consensus second-best centerfielder in this winter's free agency... but that was only from talking heads and typing fingers in the industry (not fan forums).

Boras must be negotiating an acceptable offer for JBJ somewhere. I don't think Bradley misread the market, although maybe Boras did. Springer signed for $150 million, so does everyone really think he's worth three times more than Jackie? WAR 2016-2020: Springer 21.3, Bradley 15.4. Both were also postseason MVPs. If, indeed, JBJ is only worth 33% of George's value for the next half decade... is it really that unreasonable that Boras is asking for $50 Mil?

I did say the Sox have made encouraging improvements, and I do think they'll finish ahead of the O's and maybe a few others. I also think every team -- when it feels it is time -- shouldn't be afraid to "win now", because if they do win it all, the potential fan interest that generates can carry over for years (while they suffer the consequences). That is, except for spoiled fandoms in places that always demand contenders -- cough, cough, the Bronx, and ahem, Red Sox Nation. If there's any team that might pull away from the pack this year, I'm taking the Blue Jays. And not just because of offseason acquisitions, but because those additions can supplement and take the pressure off Toronto's wealth of young talent, which is due to dominate the East at any minute. I'd take the Sox over the Rays, too, except Tampa has too many Top 100 prospects threatening to break out, as well.

There were games that year when even the Sox two best defenders looked less hungry than they did their previous three years together, not always calling for catchable flies or backing each other up. They all looked like they had the hangover effect at times. There is hope on D -- and this may be why Cora said yesterday that Kike will probably play second base some innings every game this season: 2020 MLB Range Factor/9 Inn as 2B (put-outs + assists / innings played): 1. EHernandez.