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5GoldGlovesOF,75

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Everything posted by 5GoldGlovesOF,75

  1. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    The Red Sox have the pitching to beat any team in the postseason. However, the Yankees in the Bronx are their worst possible first-round match-up. New York has even better pitching: lowest Runs Allowed Per Game and ERA in the majors... though Boston is tied for second and third. The problem is that pitchers' duels in the playoffs are almost always decided by home runs -- and the Yanks lead the world in HRs, especially short porch pop-ups to RF. The Sox have a shot because Tolle-Suarez-Gray could pitch better than any non-Schlittler starter... but Boston would have higher odds in any other playoff team's park. (notice, no non-bracketed mention of the Replay Command Center right down the street of a desperate MLB rooting for its marquee franchise to win the World Series).
  2. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Sportswriters didn't use it when they only voted Willie Mays two MVP awards. He only led the NL in WAR in 10 of 13 years. The seasons he didn't lead, he only had WARs of 8.7, 7.8 and 7.6.
  3. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Large, fearsome human. At the same age that Pedro Martinez was eating mangoes, Tolle was eating cows. I like his chances.
  4. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    "the additions afforded to the Sox as his contract disappeared." My stance all along is that this was main point of dumping Raffy. His public obstinance only lent convenience to a mega transition of the roster and budget.
  5. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    I always viewed baseball as the least-important of team sports when it came to being a "good teammate." And it's my favorite to play and to watch, and to blab about. But baseball is the most unique of "team" sports, since it's the sum deeds of isolated individuals. Of course, it's more fun and easier playing with and rooting for a bunch of guys you like who like you, instead of dealing with a selfish malcontent sitting by himself ragging on the universe instead of blaming world hunger where it really belongs -- on the ump or opposing pitcher. Great point about trading Devers for basically this summer's entire starting infield. I learned today there's one more guy to add to the haul: that extra draft pick Breslow got from Milwaukee turned into Owen Hull from North Carolina -- coming soon to a prospect hype near you!
  6. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    It's really not, when missing two All-Star bats -- the #2 and #4 hitters in the batting order. The only star left in the line-up is Abreu, and a lot is made of his 13 second-half homers. Gasper has cooled a bit; he only has a .905 OPS this month -- but where would the O be without his 9 HRs in 19 starts since August? Rutschman hasn't been a star hitter since 2023. Anthony doesn't have Duran's wheels, but is closer to him than we want to admit: a power threat with lots of Ks. The rest are what they are: 250ish guys with occasional gap pop when hot. When this group is depleted and the starting rotation is just trying to eat innings to get through the month, you lose more than you win.
  7. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Sorry, I wasn't clear that I choose Duran over Anthony in LF purely on defense. Talk about pick your poison -- but Duran has been decent this summer and had good enough ratings on some metrics to be considered for Gold Glove nominations. I did state that Anthony's bat will be in the line-up no matter what, though... he hits the ball really hard once a game.
  8. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Ya, they'll do that and bench Gasper, too. But not Anthony, even though his K-rate is basically the same as Duran's. And I'm not bashing Roman, just pointing out that he gets the benefit of the doubt over all others because he's owed the most longterm money at the youngest age. But from what we've seen in the outfield this entire season, who would you rather see in leftfield in the quick do-or-die playoffs: Duran or Anthony? I have to say Jarren, even though I was all over JD last October when he dropped that soft liner the NYY cultists awarded a hit to to the messiah.
  9. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    My opinion since last winter is that Duran will never be an effective DH. And since this season, Duran is a better leftfielder than Anthony. In fact, I'm predicting Duran will either be in the postseason starting line-up as the LF or benched from the line-up. Anthony or Gasper will DH.
  10. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    He's earned it for daily contributions as a regular position poster. If he only posted once every five days -- no matter how good his pitching and moaning -- I couldn't vote for him for Most Valuable Poster.
  11. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    We have to pretend the next 15 games will matter as much as the last 120 did -- even if the Red Sox aren't even trying to pretend. But the day they clinch an official Wild Card spot will be cause for a well-earned celebration... for the players and replacement coaching staff. For the front office, they'll be relieved to have kept their jobs, and then get to officially rest all regulars and key pitchers before the playoffs.
  12. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    What's also interesting is if the Red Sox had traded for Paredes instead of Durbin -- based on just third baseman values -- they'd be projected for one more win... ... not counting the combined 1.3 WAR for Seigler and Mona, which cancels the 1.3 WAR for Harrison -- though the additional 0.6 for Drohan and 0.4 for Duran (swapped for Paredes) cancels out the one more win. And then there's the 1.7 WAR for Hammy (really? hard to imagine he'd be worth more to Boston this summer than Seigler and Mona combined?).
  13. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    If the Sox can just go 7-8 in their final 15 games, either the Jays and Rangers would have to go 15-0 to overtake them. As far as Boston not having to go to the Bronx for the Wild Card round, the Guardians would have to go 14-1... In other words, unless the Red Sox totally tank on purpose, nothing is going to change their postseason outlook. They could even bring up minor league pitchers who are 0-9 with 7 ERAs, and those guys might win and spoil plans. So fans better be prepared for Breslow and Bailey's Flying Circus the last two weeks. The Sox will rest any big leaguer with a hangnail, and play Chad Tracy's favorite Woosters to finish out the string. And don't worry -- if the Sox absolutely have to win a game or two at the end, the last six are at Fenway vs. Cleveland and Chicago, two other teams who may be resting their regulars and pitchers for the first round...
  14. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    This doesn't have to mean Rutschman is aching, but getting more precautionary rest -- like they just did pushing Suarez' next start back a week (like Gray last week)... ... and ensuring Mickey stays sharp at multiple positions so they can justify keeping his bat on the postseason roster -- and not have to watch/listen to Six States of protesters storming the Fenway front offices and even rioting if they get shutout by Schlittler and Bad Company.
  15. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Fascinating chart, MVP. And it basically lists all current Red Sox batters... except a few who never watched a third strike go by that they didn't Bugs Bunny at: Story, Duran, Abreu, Rafaela, Contreras. I crack me up.
  16. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    I'd rather see a strikeout when a Red Sox pitcher is on the mound. We all want Anthony to be the next Ted or Yaz, but there is a lot of swing and miss with his "great" eyes. There was last year and at the beginning of this season and there is now. Maybe he's feeling the pressure of expectations, which would be totally normal for a young guy, even a future star. But he did well in the WBC, leading USA in RBIs batting 6th or 7th for Mark DeRosa.
  17. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    On bb-ref's page of batting leaders, PCA leads the NL in 24 categories and Ohtani leads in zero. Nothing against DHs like Papi or Yordan, but if the comp is a far better hitter and also the best defensive player in baseball at his position -- all season -- it's no contest.
  18. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    I talked about leadoff and the order yesterday. The only regular (besides Story's current 31.6% K-rate) slightly worse than Anthony is Duran, who's at 27.8% and statistically one of the worst hitters in the majors this year. And yet some consider Anthony the Red Sox' "best hitter." Meanwhile, here are 2026 Sox with better than average K-rates: Abreu and Rafaela at 20%, and the following -- all under 20%: Sogard, Gasper, Seigler, Monasterio, Durbin, IKF and Yoshida HIP (Heal in Peace).
  19. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    We know who Story is: a career 28% K-rate. The MLB average is 22%. But Anthony had a 27.7% K-rate last year, after which many fans and media called him the Red Sox next superstar. This season -- at the start and now the stretch run -- Roman has a 26.4% K-rate. Strikeouts are a big part of their games, even when they're doing well. Like or not, we have to admit this was the main risk of incorporating the duo back into a batting order that won the summer because of contact. No one feared their personalities wouldn't match...
  20. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Well he's not Ted Williams because he doesn't average 37 HRs, 130 RBI, .344 BA, .482 OBP, .634 SLUG and 1.116 OPS for over 20 years batting against the same tired starting pitcher four times a night, who for half his career was only the color of a brand new baseball (including the red stitches when Ted hit liners off his face).
  21. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    I understand that thinking. But then, why doesn't Contreras bat leadoff? He's second in the American League in OPS to a guy who may be unanimous MVP. So why doesn't Alvarez bat leadoff? Or Caminero, Ben Rice or Alonso (the rest of the top 5)? Possible answer: because they're all legit sluggers, and managers would rather someone gets on base in front of them. Anthony has looked better since his return from the IL, but nobody's been a better hitter than Gasper the past 7 days, the past 14 days or the past 28 days.
  22. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Even more useless is to debate the optimum batting order. I never liked Roman Anthony leadoff -- and I know Red Sox management loves him leadoff. His on base percentage can be good when he's not striking out (10 Ks in 21 ABs over Labor Day weekend), but I get the sense his bosses would like to see him become a Schwarber/Ohtani type of leadoff and crank a lot of early homers to give Boston a quick lead. But Anthony is so much better when he uses the whole field, which he'd be forced to do batting behind other high on base guys like Gasper or Contreras. I'm still in favor of taking the pressure off the returning youngster and batting him 5th or 6th. Even if Rafaela struggles to heal, we have to accept that Mickey will be on the bench. Duran is the leftfielder through October; they're not moving him to CF to put Roman in LF. Sogard, Abreu, Adley, Contreras, Anthony, Durbin, Duran, Story, White. If Ceddanne is back but Contreras isn't: Sogard, Mickey, Adley, Abreu, Rafaela, Anthony, Durbin, Duran, Story.
  23. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    I was in complete shock -- how could Dombro trade the Sox NUMBER ONE PITCHING PROSPECT! Espinoza, now 28, has pitched in Japan the past three years. His entire MLB career is as a reliever in 7 games for the Cubs in 2022: 0-2, 5.40 ERA, 0 WAR.
  24. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Pitching prospects have to be the most volatile as far as fulfilling expectations. After seeing Duran and Rutschman go deep off Grayson Rodriguez, it's hard to remember he was THE #1 Pitching Prospect in all of baseball just five years ago. He also missed last season with injuries, including surgery to remove bone spurs from his elbow. Now he's 26 years old with a 4-7 record and 6.28 ERA. Career WAR 1.4.
  25. 5GoldGlovesOF,75
    Ya, I also like the gas between two finesse to mess up timing. Plus, Tolle is still technically a rookie, so Game 3 (though Early wasn't bad last year) may be better handled by a vet who's proven in those circumstances... if available. Bennett could be long man for any of the three -- and we'd trust him or even Sandoval more than Bello.
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