oldtimer
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Everything posted by oldtimer
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With the huge FA contracts being handed out it seem as if the Competitive Balance limit will have to be raised. More than $43 mil a year for Mad Max, Seager cashing in and Semien. Wow!
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Great reply.
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As a depth addition to our starting rotation it probably makes sense. As you say, we need more of a front line starter added to the team as well.
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The question remains in my mind. Is Bloom serious about making the Sox much more competitive for 2022 or is he instead trying to tread water until some of our remaining contracts come off the books? Priice, JDM and Eovaldi will free up a lot of money for 2023 although Eovaldi is certainly not overpaid. Will Bloom continue to strengthen thee minors and get a few mid player players on short contracts this year and coast until 2023. As we see more starters go to other teams for multiyear contracts one can certainly question Blooms strategy for 2022.
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So who do we trade from our 40 man, assuming we pick up as many as 3 pitchers and an infielder and utility man? Candidates might be Potts, Aruaz, Rosario, Davis and a catcher.
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Rule 5 protection will be defined today. We may lose a few, including Cordero.
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Co Co Crisp would have to be in the running.
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So, we should trade Duran.
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I was for Schwaber only if JDM chose to opt out. After this year we can pick up one of the many DH options that might become available. Lets put money into one or two starting pitchers and one or two RP's. The decision on the mix should be based on our plans for Whitlock, Houck and Seabold. I'm guessing Casas can supplement 11st base. We could use Arroyo at 2nd or pick up a strong presence at 2nd and move Arroyo to infield utility. I rather Semien than Biaz. We don't need another strikeout king to go with Renfroe and Dalbec. I'm still interested in an outfield replacement for Renfroe if he is going to be valued at $7.5 mil. Duran would be an adequate utility backup and we could also use Locastro.
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It's anyone's guess what the Sox offered. Maybe it was for the same money but less years. At any rate, E-Rod is gone and we will be looking. With thee CBA negotiations not making progress, I doubt if teams will be willing to lay out the bigger contracts and FA will go on hold. It might be a good idea for the Sox to fill at least some of the medium contract pitchers before Dec 1 though..
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i really doubt that Bloom is going to trade future cornerstone players for any pitcher. I suggest that Casas, Mayer, Verdugo, and Yorke all belong in the no trade category.
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Even though I like Marte, as I think he is a batter fielder and hitter than Renfroe despite being older, I did say he might be too expensive for the Sox. They might find someone else instead. The Sox had two power hitters who definitely had big holes in their swings. Dalbec hardly was used and Renfroe was overmatched. I believe what I see and don't refer to the stats for the last 3 years to override my judgment. Renfroe is at best a fill in player. I'll give Dalbec the benefit of the doubt, as he was showing some better signs of making contact later in the year. Renfroe at $7.5 mil is no bargain and I think Bloom knows it.
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I am not a fan of boom and bust cycles which result from overspending on large questionable contracts and trading away most of the good young assets. It may result it a high but also will likely be followed by a cliff. I like what Bloom is saying and hope he smartly approaches team development which includes sustainability as a priority.
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This is disingenuous of Boras. JDM is staying because he didn't think it likely he could get a better deal, especially with the CBA in question. He also knew that the Sox were likely to go after Schwaber to fill the position. No Sox front office executive is going to promise to work to make the team better, presumably by spending extra money, to make JDM feel more comfortable staying. Just more oras hokum.
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I am on the side of trading him if he reaches $7.5 Mil in arbitration. I like the idea of Marte for 3 years although he may be too costly and interfere with pitching acquisitions. Renfroe will be no more than an average defensive outfielder who will struggle to hit playoff quality pitching. At $3 Mil it makes sense but ay $7.5 there are other options.
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The Barnes extension.
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All the talk of FA signings and trades may not bear fruit if the CBA can't be agreed upon. The old agreement expires on Dec 1st and it seems unlikely that a new agreement can be reached by then. Talking heads are predicting an owner lockout before Spring Training. I hope it doesn't happen, but I can't see teams stocking up on expensive FAs if they expect a lockout.
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so where are we going? 1st Base Dalbec/Casas 2nd Base FA/Arroyo SS Bogey 3rd Base Devers (lets extend him now) LF Verdugo CF Kike RF FA (Marte)/Renfroe (Might we best trade Renfroe and get a more reliable hitter in the playoffs) C Vaz, Prospect DH JDM (Can't see both JDM and Schwaber) Utility OF(Duran or Locastro), IF(Arroyo), IF(Casas) SP Eovaldi, FA, Sale, E-Rod, Pivetta, (Houck 6th starter or long relief) RP Whitlock, FA (Gravemen), Brasier, Taylor, Houck, Barnes, (Sawamura or D-Hernandez)Hernandez might be a fit as a second lefty Can we afford a FA 2nd or 3rd starter, a middle range FA RP, a FA 2nd Baseman and a FA replacement for Renfroe? Based upon who will be back, I see these move areas as the most likely.
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I'd be surprised if the Sox don't promote Mayer for the 2024 season. He represents the Sox SS of the future. With that in mind, do we want to commit the Sox to a $27Mil second baseman for 4 years following Mayer's debut? I don't know the answer to that question, unless we can use either of these two as PT DH's as well as 2nd basemen. Even then, it is a lot to pay for the position. Both Bogaerts and Semien are top level MLers now, but will they be tradable in 2024 with that kind of contract? I also can't see both on the roster at the same time between 2022 and 2024. Kind of like JDM and Schwaber, being hard to carry at the same time.
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My view: Kike RF Schwaber DH Semien SS Devers 3B Marte CF Verdugo LF Dalbec/Casas 1B Arroyo/Downs 2B Vaz/Hernandez C Eovaldi, Sale, Stroman, Pivetta, Houck, Seabold Iglesias, Whitlock, Taylor, D-Hern, Sawamura, Brasier, Barnes, Valdez UT: Casas, Downs, Duran
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Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. The only guy on this who was on a WS winning team was Freddie Freeman. The Braves won't let Freddie walk. Correa is a very good short stop but didn't do a lot against the good pitching of the Braves I can see Semien, as it weakens Jays. Only if we trade Bogaerts, which is by no means an easy thing to do. I can see Stroman, particularly if E-Rod leaves. I can see Marte if Renfroe is traded. I can see Schwaber if JDM opts out. I think Iglesias is needed and hopefully he can perform to expectations. Backfill from the organization for the rest.
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The Braves experienced tough player losses during the year and not much was expected of them. They made acquisitions that were smart and that propelled them to win the WS. Carlos Correa was on the losing team. Before we empty the bank for any player, we should examine the Braves approach.
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Our prospect top 25 who are projected as ML ready in 2021/2022 consists of 12 players. They are: Casas 1st base Duran OF Downs SS/2nd Cannon SS/2nd Hernandez C Wong C Bello P Groome P Murphy P Seabold P Wincowski P Crawford P Which of these, if any, will make the active roster and which will make the 40 man? We have only 1 first base candidate and one OF candidate. We also have 2 SS/2nd base candidates but one with a higher rating. Then there are 2 catchers with one of those being at least considered. With 7 pitchers, probably 5 of those stand a chance during thee year. Right now, we have weak spots at 2nd base, first base, OF and Catcher and of course pitching. We have potential players for all of those positions on our prospect list. Also if we wish to chase an exceptional talent, such as Semien, a player like Downs might be sacrificed. That would come at a high cost but might be worth the plunge. I wonder how Bloom feels?
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I don't see Dalbec as a DH. He is too strikeout prone. I would keep him as a platoon player at first and part of our utility group. Casas can be the second platoon 1st baseman. I would also bring in a replacement for Renfroe who simply was no threat against playoff caliber pitching. Marte might be available on a short term contract and is still a fine outfielder and is solid offensively. Arroyo is a capable3e defensive second baseman who could also fill a utility role provided we find a FT second baseman. Possible starting pitcher and one or two BP pieces and we are there. I still believe Duran can fill our utility outfield position and maybe more.
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By thinking of the jdm decision as a key to start the ball rolling, I mean it will come early and clarify whether we stay with him or go after Schwaber. I don't expect jdm to be tradable and don't see us trying to carry both players, as that money could be best used elsewhere. I think the Collective Bargaining Agreement will go through many ups and downs with a work stoppage a real possibility. The players want to have a strong FA market while the owners want to expand their take. The uncertainty of the CBA would in my mind reduce the front office incentive to go after expensive FA's who then might not play a full season in 2022. I see it as more of a wet blanket of trades and FA until a settlement is reached. All businesses try to increase their profits year to year as stockholders invest with the thought of getting a reasonable ROI. I don't know of other businesses in which workers can expect to have long term contracts at such absurd salaries.