harmony

Mitch Moreland has a career OPS+ of 100 and a career wRC+ of 98 while Blake Swihart has a career OPS+ of 90 and a career wRC+ of 92. Moreland posted higher wRC+* than Swihart at every level in the minors although Moreland was drafted as 21-year-old out of college while Swihart was drafted as a 19-year-old out of high school. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C I hope Blake Swihart has a long and productive MLB career. I envy Swihart, who plays the game I love at a level I could only dream of. I don't doubt that Swihart strives to be the best he can be. I cannot blame Swihart if the nearly 25-year-old has been the victim of overhype. * wRC+ is scaled to a league average: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/

FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project 2017 wRC+ of: 82, 87 and 77 for Blake Swihart 91, 95 and 86 for Mitch Moreland 89, 88 and 90 for Brock Holt 92, 97 and 86 for Pablo Sandoval 97, 99 and 96 for Chris Young http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3086&position=1B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9345&position=3B/OF http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF

Blake Swihart's parents stand by him amid the recent report: https://www.facebook.com/arlan.swihart.batman?pnref=lhc

Meanwhile, FanGraphs Depth Charts and ZiPS are bullish on the Red Sox chances this year: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-E http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

FanGraphs Depth Charts and Steamer project Blake Swihart, a career 92 wRC+ hitter, with a 2017 wRC+ of 87. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C ZiPS projects Swihart, a career 90 OPS+ hitter, with a 2017 OPS+ of 80. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/ Perhaps the rest of the Red Sox lineup will be strong enough to carry those career or projected hitting statistics at third base or elsewhere. For what it's worth, Pablo Sandoval is projected with a 2017 wRC+ of 97 and a 2017 OPS+ of 91 (Brock Holt 88 and 91).

Did Blake Swihart work on his defensive skills over the offseason? Did Swihart have any reason to do do?

FanGraphs Depth Chart, Steamer and ZiPS suggest that I will: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13265&position=C http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-seattle-mariners/ ... as Mike Zunino and Blake Swihart likely regress from their 2016 BABIP of .250 and .348, respectively. Swihart could take as a compliment a comp to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who is entering his 11th MLB season. Saltalamacchia was 18 years, one month, old when he was taken with the 36th pick of the 2003 draft while Swihart was 19 years, two months, old when he was taken with the 26th pick of the 2011 draft. The switch-hitting catchers peaked at No. 17 (Swihart) and No. 18 (Saltalamacchia) in Baseball America preseason prospect rankings.

Blake Swihart and Jarrod Saltalamacchia may share another characteristic: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/02/17/notebook-red-sox-catcher-blake-swihart-thrown-for-loop/3KTX6JMAsd2TuvIOZKUEjJ/story.html http://deadspin.com/5539083/jarrod-saltalamacchia-has-a-strange-case-of-the-yips ... or not.

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2017 WAR of 1.6 apiece for Christian Vazquez and Sandy Leon, to rank 37th and 38th among all projected catchers: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd Steamer600 projects Blake Swihart with a 2017 WAR of 1.4 in 600 plate appearances: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0 FanGraphs Depth Charts project a combined 2017 WAR of 2.1 in 640 plate appearances for Leon (1.1 in 352), Vazquez (0.8 in 256) and Swihart (0.1 in 32): http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3#C ZiPS projects Leon with a 2017 WAR of 1.3 in 276 plate appearances, Vazquez with 1.1 in 357 and Swihart with -0.1 in 342: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2017-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/

Steamer600, which assumes 200 innings for each starting pitcher, projects Chris Sale with the ninth-highest 2017 WAR with the lefthander finishing in a three-way tie for third in RA9-WAR: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=19,d http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=20,d http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/9/14/3324826/the-correlation-between-ra9-wins-and-rwar

Daisuke Matsuzaka was Baseball America's top-ranked prospect as a 26-year-old rookie in 2007 while Rusney Castillo was BA's 21st-ranked prospect as a 27-year-old rookie in 2015. http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/top-100-prospects/2007/263445.html http://www.baseballamerica.com/2015-top-100-prospects/

To be clear, those of the chances of each player posting at least 3 WAR over the six years of team control. Andrew Benintendi falls into a group that averages a combined 15.3 WAR over six seasons, Rafael Devers in a group that averages 13.0 WAR over six seasons and Jason Groome in a group that averages 6.4 WAR over six seasons.

The Red Sox naturally have the highest surplus value on an individual player -- top-ranked Andrew Benintendi -- and a high mean because their four ranked players are highly ranked. However, with relatively few ranked players, the Red Sox have a higher risk factor because they're spreading the risk across fewer players.

An interesting analysis of surplus value of each team's Baseball America Top 100 prospects: http://theprocessreport.net/the-top-100s-are-coming-the-top-100s-are-coming/

Beyond the Box Score at SB Nation offered more on Mike Zunino: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/2/10/14558114/mike-zunino-mariners-catcher-breakout-plate-discipline

I joined this thread's discussion of Blake Swihart's role with a comparison to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who never played for the Mariners. I brought Mike Zunino into the discussion on a positive note to compare Zunino's age 25 season (split last year between Triple A and MLB) with Swihart's upcoming age 25 season (likely to be split between Triple A and MLB). Peace be with you. And I'm off to see the Celtics play tonight.

Perhaps the defensive metrics help explain the contrasting projections for Mike Zunino and Blake Swihart.

I wonder whether the projections attempt to quantify a catcher's ability to handle a pitching staff. Despite his sub-.200 batting average, Seattle kept trotting Mike Zunino out to catch in 2014 and 2015 because of the high scores Zunino receives from the pitching staff. Blake Swihart, on the other hand, lost his starting gig after six games last year because, according to some, of his questionable ability to handle the Red Sox staff. http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/clubhouse_insider/2017/01/red_sox_mailbag_can_blake_swihart_win_the_starting_catching http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-2017-spring-position-preview-is-this-the-year-that-mike-zunino-can-put-it-all-together/ On a Mariner team that finished second to the Red Sox in wRC+ last year, the ability to handle a pitching staff might be more important than hitting potential. Still, it was an eye-opener to read that ZiPS projects 2017 OPS+ of 95 for Zunino and only 80 for Swihart. The projections probably consider minor league numbers as well as last year's MLB statistics. I hope Mike Zunino and Blake Swihart have successful years ... and careers. http://m.redsox.mlb.com/news/article/215367144/blake-swihart-aims-to-climb-boston-depth-chart/ http://www.thenewstribune.com/sports/mlb/seattle-mariners/mariners-insider-blog/article131475344.html

Where is the 40 percent strikeout rate? No need to embellish Mike Zunino's high strikeout rate ... I would never embellish the stats of a Red Sox player or any other player.

Will do. I have yet to find 2017 WAR projections that place Blake Swihart ahead of Mike Zunino*. Perhaps someone can help me. I hope Blake Swihart has a long productive MLB career despite my reservations. * despite Zunino's unembellished projected strikeout rate of 29-32 percent and projected batting average of around .221

Good catch on Blake Swihart's brief non-catching debut in 2011. In 2012 Swihart played 93 games, including 66 as a catcher, at Single A Greenville while Zunino played 44 games, including 31 as a catcher, between Low A Everett and Double A Jackson (skipping Single A Clinton and High A High Desert), posting a combined .360/.447/.689/1.137 line in 190 plate appearances. Of course, Swihart is one year younger than Zunino.

Blake Swihart, who never played in college after being drafted out of high school, has played six professional seasons (one season more than Mike Zunino, who in 2012 culminated a three-year college career with the College Player of the Year Award won by Andrew Benintendi in 2015). Swihart played nothing but catcher in his first five professional seasons: http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.cgi?id=swihar000bla

With career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92, and lower projections, Blake Swihart might have enough bat to stay behind the plate but I question whether Swihart has the bat to be a starter at any other position.

Mike Zunino was rushed as well by a Seattle organization notorious for poor player development, making his MLB debut at age 22 years, 79 days, in contrast to Swihart's debut at 23 years, 29 days (Jarrod Saltamacchia made his MLB debut on his 22nd birthday). It's not as if a single rogue projection is down on Blake Swihart. ZiPS, Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts are all bearish on Swihart, ranking him behind Zunino in the near future, including significant disparity in defensive abilities. Indeed, projections are often wrong. Swihart could be better -- or worse -- than the current projections.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 93 and 92, respectively, while Blake Swihart has career OPS+ and wRC+ of 90 and 92. Saltalamacchia has a career fWAR of 9.5 as he approaches his 32nd birthday in May. Swihart already has accumulated 1.9 fWAR as he approaches his 25th birthday in April. It should be interesting to see who finishes with a higher career WAR total. I suspect the Red Sox would be happy if Swihart's age 25 season approximates the age 25 season of Seattle's Mike Zunino, another catcher who peaked at No. 17 on the Baseball America prospect rankings. Last year Zunino posted a wRC+ of 138 in 327 plate appearances at Triple A before posting a wRC+ of 115 in 192 plate appearances at the MLB level. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for most catchers but 600 plate appearances for Swihart, projects 2017 WAR of 2.4 for Zunino and 1.4 for Swihart. http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0