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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    Those are reasons why batting averages are given less and less weight in the determination of value. WAR makes a subjective determination of what objective statistics go into its calculation (even though those objective statistics are based on some subjective judgments). The baseball cards of my childhood listed runs, RBI, home runs, batting average and stolen bases. In more recent years evaluators made the subjective decision to cite on-base percentage instead of batting average. The typical WAR calculation gathers a wide variety of largely objective statistics to reach a conclusion. Like any statistic, WAR is subject to debate about how well it measures what it purports to measure.
  2. harmony
    Just as batting average is subjective statistic dependent upon an official scorer's subjective judgment.
  3. harmony
    An expert's presentation to the general public will be different from the expert's presentation to peers. The latter typically requires a precision that the former does not. The links to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference "explain a theory and its supporting evidence clearly and concisely, in plain language, to intelligent people with an interest in this area." WAR is a statistic that would be found in an introductory course, not a course in advanced statistics.
  4. harmony
    Many people with an area of expertise roll their eyes at questions from persons who lack that expertise. Each of us has limitations ... don't be ashamed.
  5. harmony
    The precise calculations are available to the public: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/war/ http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/war_explained.shtml
  6. harmony
    The Red Sox traded shortstop Nomar Garciaparra in the middle of a season that culminated with a World Series title. Garciaparra, of course, was a 31-year-old posting a .321/.367/.500/.867 line at the time of the trade.
  7. harmony
    Kyle Kendrick looked good at Spring Training but the righthander had a rough debut today at Pawtucket: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2017_04_10_syraaa_pawaaa_1&t=g_box&sid=milb
  8. harmony
    Falmouth native Steve Cishek was available in the 2015-16 offseason. Compare the 2016 lines for Cishek and Craig Kimbrel: SC 62 G, 64 IP, 2.82 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9. 10.7 K/9, 144 ERA+, 1.6 bWAR, 0.9 fWAR CK 57 G, 53 IP, 3.40 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 5.1 BB/9, 14.7 K/9, 135 ERA+, 0.9 bWAR, 1.2 fWAR Cishek signed a two-year, $10 million contract with Seattle that offseason but lost the closer role to rookie Edwin Diaz in August. Cishek opens the 2017 season on the disabled list after undergoing hip surgery.
  9. harmony
    How much trade value do Christian Vazquez, Sandy Leon and Blake Swihart have? Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher but 600 plate appearances for Swihart, projects 2017 WAR of 1.6 for Vazquez, 1.6 for Leon and 0.4 for Swihart: http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Vazquez and Leon would rank 35th and 36th among all catchers in the Steamer600 projections (which, again, assume 450 plate appearances for each catcher regardless of the projected plate appearances): http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27%2cd The FanGraphs 2017 profile of Swihart points out the red flags: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C
  10. harmony
    That link provides a balanced profile of Blake Swihart (about halfway down the top page).
  11. harmony
    FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Craig Kimbrel with 65, 65 and 60 appearances, respectively, in 2017: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=6655&position=P Only an injury and/or woeful performance would limit Kimbrel to fewer than 50 appearances this year.
  12. harmony
    I was at Roger Clemens' one-hitter on October 14, 2000: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA200010140.shtml
  13. harmony
    We'll never know but San Diego GM A.J. Preller was not in a great negotiating position after the injury was revealed.
  14. harmony
    Should Dave Dombrowski have offered Michael Kopech instead of Anderson Espinoza when the Drew Pomeranz injury was revealed? On July 11 Baseball America released its midseason prospect rankings with Espinoza at No. 15 and Kopech at No. 93: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/midseason-top-100-prospects/#gjf5CCb1ZUj2EVO7.97 The Pomeranz trade came three days later. BA's current preseason prospect rankings have Espinoza No. 21 and Kopech No. 32: http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-top-100-prospects/#HKLqw3BQFvUHjoK0.97 Baseball Prospectus has Espinoza No. 24 and Kopech No. 36: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=31160 MLB Prospect Watch has Espinoza No. 25 and Kopech No. 16: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=prospects
  15. harmony
    The Boston Herald's Jason Mastrodonato writes about Marco Hernandez: http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/03/red_sox_notebook_marco_hernandez_strong_spring_puts_him_in_mix_for_spot_or
  16. harmony
    CSNNE discussion on the Red Sox starting rotation: http://www.csnne.com/video/drellich-red-sox-rotation-house-cards
  17. harmony
    Boston lefthander Drew Pomeranz says today's tricep tightness was "nothing crazy," according to Providence Journal beat reporter Brian MacPherson: http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/20170319/drew-pomeranz-leaves-start-with-left-triceps-tightness From WEEI: http://fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2017/03/19/what-drew-pomeranz-leaving-early-due-to-triceps-tightness-might-mean/
  18. harmony
    David Price has averaged 5 Wins Above Replacement over the past seven seasons, including 4.5 fWAR last year: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P
  19. harmony
    Incapable of independent thought:o, I will go with the FanGraphs projection of 92 wins: http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings#AL-E
  20. harmony
    In last night's WBC game between Venezuela and the USA, Seattle starters Felix Hernandez and Drew Smyly combined for 9.2 innings, no earned runs, six hits (all singles), 11 strikeouts and no walks: https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/gameday/venezuela-vs-united-states/2017/03/15/486933?#=undefined,game=486933,game_state=final,game_tab=box Small sample, but an encouraging small sample. The game thread for the 4-2 USA win generated 178 responses at Lookout Landing, the Mariners' SB Nation site: http://www.lookoutlanding.com/2017/3/15/14941358/wbc-open-game-thread-3-15-17-venezuela-v-u-s-a
  21. harmony
    Venezuela's Felix Hernandez faces USA's Drew Smyly tonight in a matchup of Seattle Mariner starters: https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/scoreboard http://sports.mynorthwest.com/251054/when-mariners-face-mariners-in-the-wbc-who-does-dipoto-root-for/
  22. harmony
    FanGraphs Depth Charts, Steamer and ZiPS project Chris Young with 2017 wRC+ of 97, 99 and 96, respectively, in 88, 72 and 98 games: http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3882&position=OF
  23. harmony
    Trey Ball apparently walked Brock Holt and Mookie Betts on eight straight pitches but got out of the inning: http://m.mlb.com/gameday/united-states-vs-red-sox/2017/03/09/509567?#game_tab=gameday,game=509567,game_state=live
  24. harmony
    The link: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/03/07/coffee-and-conversation-with-david-price/4sQMfhJXyVLcB7B16jPDFJ/story.html
  25. harmony
    FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan offers a strength-of-schedule analysis: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/projected-2017-strengths-of-schedule/
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