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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. That's only one reason why you have many fans on this forum.
  2. On the topic of Ben Cherington ...
  3. http://www.politifact.com/wisconsin/statements/2018/feb/20/kevin-nicholson/which-higher-number-people-or-number-guns-america/
  4. Two years ago the trade of two years and two months of lefty reliever Andrew Miller netted outfielder Clint Frazier (then the No. 44 prospect), lefthander Justus Sheffield (then No. 81, now No. 41) and two other pitchers. https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millean01.shtml#all_transactions_other
  5. FiveThirtyEight projects the Red Sox with 108 wins and the Yankees with 104 wins: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/
  6. FanGraphs projects the Guardians with a rest-of-season won/loss ratio of .614 with the Astros at .627, the Yankees at .618 and the Red Sox at .583: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
  7. Those old tweets are certainly offensive but at Spring Training this year Josh Hader was a favorite of Brewer fans. I was in the second row of a section of Milwaukee fans who were collecting Brewer autographs before the game. The fans absolutely adored the personable Hader, who was wearing his glove fingers-forward as a cap, hair down to the middle of his back and sporting tattoos everywhere. We should decide how much Hader should be held accountable today for youthful indiscretions.
  8. Indeed, using the 17 percent margin of error, Xander Bogaerts' current fWAR of 3.2 could be as high as 3.744 or as low as 2.656. If the 17 percent margin of error applies equally to Baseball Reference's WAR, Bogaerts' current bWAR of 2.1 could be as high as 2.457 or as low as 1.743. Decent discussion.
  9. Indeed, it's not an exact science. But to be precise, I've cited only the WAR numbers from FanGraphs, not BR (Baseball Reference), which has Xander Bogaerts at only 2.1 bWAR through 79 games this year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bogaexa01.shtml Still, it's a solid year so far.
  10. Xander Bogaerts is unlikely to play all 64 remaining games. From another perspective, Bogaerts is on pace to play 131 games this year. If Bogaerts maintains his current per-game WAR rate over 131 games, he'll finish with 5.3 fWAR. Bogaerts will probably play between 42 and 64 remaining games and his WAR should be impacted proportionately. Xander Bogaerts is having a fine season.
  11. The Red Sox have only 64 games remaining so Xander Bogaerts will play a maximum of 143 games. In the unlikely event Xander Bogaerts plays all 64 games and maintains his per/game WAR rate, he will finish just shy of 5.9 fWAR.
  12. Which may explain why Xander Bogaerts trails Jean Segura in trade value. Then again Bogaerts has posted only 16.1 fWAR in 702 games while Manny Machado, who is only three months older than Bogaerts, has posted 27.7 fWAR in 860 games. And to be precise, neither Bogaerts nor Segura is on pace for a 6 WAR season.
  13. Would you switch jobs with Ben Cherington if given the opportunity? Just curious.
  14. If an opinion reminds me of statistics that may be relevant to that opinion, I share those stats. The poster (and reader) can choose to incorporate those stats into their thinking ... or ignore the stats. I don't care to tell anyone how to think.
  15. I thought you might enjoy the take of FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-as-are-being-led-from-the-back/
  16. FanGraphs has started releasing its annual midseason rankings of trade value: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-41-to-50/ https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-honorable-mentions/ Whereas Xander Bogaerts has slipped from No. 45 last year to honorable mention this year, Seattle shortstop Jean Segura sneaks into the rankings at No. 49. For a year now I have found the comp of Bogaerts and Segura interesting (probably more interesting than most fans). Bogaerts remains under team control only through next season working off his 2018 salary of $7.05 million. Segura is owed about $61 million on his contract that runs through four more seasons with a team option of $17 million, or a $1 million buyout, for an additional year in 2023. Bogaerts and Segura each had a monster 2016 season. Since the start of that season, Bogaerts has posted 11.3 fWAR in 384 games while Segura has posted 11.1 fWAR in 368 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players= In 2016 Segura played second base and was deprived fWAR's favorable position adjustment for a shortstop. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/ A trade of Bogaerts for Segura would never occur but I suspect neither team would trade its current asset for the other shortstop.
  17. Your ignorance of demographics is astounding. And that's coming from a Portland resident. The Mariners are not the club for a fan whose life has a success void yearning to be filled by the on-field success of his or her favorite sports team. I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void. I enjoy pulling for the underdog, a label the Mariners richly deserve after failing to advance to the postseason since 2001. I prefer the underdog to the Seattle Seahawks and the Seattle Sounders, who have reached the pinnacles of their respective sports in the past five years. Enjoy the Red Sox success ... and I'll endure the Mariners success or failure.
  18. A little of both.
  19. FiveThirtyEight currently ranks the Athletics ahead of the Mariners: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/ Although the FanGraphs rest-of-season projections have the Mariners ahead of the Athletics (and the Red Sox in third place): https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team I'm enjoying the season regardless.
  20. The Seattle tailspin has indeed been remarkable. FiveThirtyEight now gives the Mariners a 52 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and the Athletics a 36 percent chance: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/ FanGraphs has the Mariners at 64 percent and the Athletics at 30.9 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds The negative run differential has been miraculous. It has been -- and should continue to be -- an interesting season for Mariner fans. Best wishes the remainder of the season.
  21. Rusney Castillo at $11 million earns more this year than Brian Dozier at $9 million and is owed $11 million in 2019 and $13.5 million in 2020. I don't see the Twins taking on salary for that modest return in talent.
  22. The 1963 World Series between the Dodgers and Yankees was the first I watched but the 1965 World Series was the most memorable because I was a Minnesota Twins fan who turned 10 years old on the travel day between Game 2 and Game 3 of the series. The Twins weren't expected to be good that year but advanced to Game 7 of the series before succumbing to the masterful Sandy Koufax for the second time in three starts.
  23. The Huskies have some tough road games this year: http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/conn-m-footbl-sched.html Have fun!
  24. In June 2017 Seattle shortstop Jean Segura was one-plus years away from free agency when the 2018 All Star signed a five-year, $70 million extension with the Mariners with a $17 million team option for a sixth year. Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who is two-and-a-half years younger than Segura, is one-plus years away from free agency. Segura has posted 15.0 fWAR in 844 career games, including 3.1 fWAR and 2.9 bWAR in 87 games this season. Segura had posted about 11 fWAR in 675 games when he signed the extension in June 2017. Bogaerts has posted 15.9 fWAR in 699 games, including 2.9 fWAR and 2.0 bWAR in 76 games this season. Bogaerts and Segura each had a monster 2016 season. Since the start of that season, Bogaerts has posted 11.1 fWAR in 381 games while Segura has posted 11.1 fWAR in 365 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players= I doubt Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras will agree to an extension, certainly not a five-year, $70 million extension.
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