harmony

Steamer projects Boston lefthander Brian Johnson with a 2019 ERA of 5.09 and a WAR of 0.3 in 23 starts: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=14272&position=P Marcel projects Johnson with a 2019 ERA of 4.15 in 91 innings: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/johnsbr02.shtml#all_pitching_proj

+1 On the other hand today marks the low point in my 24 years as a Seattle Mariners fan.

MLB Trade Rumors offers its offseason outlook for the Red Sox: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/offseason-outlook-boston-red-sox-9.html

It's safe to say each team generally attracts a different type of fan.

In December 2013 I displayed rare anger when the Seattle Mariners signed Robinson Cano to a 10-year, $240 million contract but Cano has posted 20.7 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, in the first five seasons of his Seattle contract. Steamer projects Cano with a 2019 WAR of 3.0, which would again justify Cano's annual salary of $24 million. It's the final years of Cano's contract that are concerning unless Cano ages like "big brother" David Ortiz: https://nesn.com/2016/08/robinson-cano-on-big-brother-david-ortiz-every-player-would-love-to-have-his-career/

The Red Sox topped my Seattle Mariners in this ranking of farm systems: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/post-2018-farm-system-rankings/

That's good news, my friend.

I expect Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto to be busy filling out (and rearranging) this current lineup: C ???? 1B Ryon Healy 2B Dee Gordon SS Jean Segura 3B Kyle Seager RF Mitch Haniger CF Mallex Smith LF Ben Gamel DH Robinson Cano The Seattle lineup disappointed this year when Kyle Seager's on-base percentage fell from .323 in 2017 to .273, Mike Zunino's from .331 to .259 and Dee Gordon's from .341 to .288. Ryon Healy's OBP fell from .337 in 2016 to .302 in 2017 to .277 in 2018. That's four-ninths of the 2018 batting order.

I hold the Tampa Bay Rays in high regard. I am warming up to the deal because of Seattle's need for a true center fielder, and the years of team control (two for Mike Zunino versus four for Mallex Smith). However, I am a fan of Zunino and suspect the Mariner pitching staff will miss him.

Christian Vazquez presents an interesting valuation issue. With his guaranteed money through 2021 a team could not get out from under the financial obligation by merely designating Vazquez for assignment if he does not rebound from his negative 0.8 fWAR season. This year Seattle first baseman Ryon Healy matched Vazquez's negative 0.8 fWAR but can be cut at anytime. Healy remains under team control for four more seasons with a 2019 salary near the league minimum. The 28-year-old Vazquez has posted 1.3 fWAR in 291 MLB games with a Steamer projection of 1.1 WAR in 90 games next year. The 26-year-old Healy has posted 0.9 fWAR in 354 MLB games with a Steamer projections of 0.3 WAR in 122 games next year. Those numbers favor Vazquez but the the contracts favor Healy. I am confident that Seattle will not trade two years of reliever Alex Colome, the 2017 American League saves leader, for a catcher guaranteed money coming off a negative 0.8 fWAR season. And the Mariners would have little interest in Blake Swihart, a fringe utility player who has not been trusted with everyday catching duties. I prefer that a team sell high and buy low but Seattle was on the wrong end of that philosophy in the Zunino/Smith swap. The Mariners created a hole by trading Mike Zunino for Mallex Smith but would create another hole by trading Healy for Vazquez. I suspect Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto has sent out multiple feelers.

Serious question because, as notin wrote: "... there is a possibility of a deal, since the Mariners now have a need and the Sox have a surplus."

In a trade with the Seattle Mariners, what would the Red Sox want in return for catcher Christian Vazquez with his long-term contract coming off a season in which the 28-year-old posted a negative 0.8 fWAR? :)

An undervalued stock is undervalued only until the market players recognize that the stock is undervalued. The resulting demand for the undervalued stock results in the stock being appropriately valued and often eventually overvalued.

This year Craig Kimbrel ranked 22nd among all relievers in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

This forum's one consensus.

Farm systems probably are overrated. Fifteen or 20 years ago prospects may have represented a market inefficiency. But like in most markets, the inefficiency disappears when many market players recognize the inefficiency. Attempts to capitalize on that inefficiency drive up the demand to the point the market may be overrated. I suspect Dave Dombrowski and other general managers recognized the overheated market for prospects and instead traded those overvalued assets for MLB-ready players. And Dombrowski has enjoyed some success.

MLB Trade Rumors offers luxury tax coverage: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/red-sox-nationals-only-two-teams-to-exceed-2018-luxury-tax-threshold.html

Indeed we don't know how each front office values individual players. For all we know, in a trade of four years of Jose Leclerc, the Rangers could demand three years of Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 2018 fWAR fell short of Leclerc's but whose 2019 Steamer projection triples that of Leclerc. Seattle could make available two years of righthander Alex Colome, who in 2017 led the American League in saves pitching in the AL East. However, I don't see a good match for a trade with the Red Sox.

1. which is why the Steamer projections are so similar even though this year Jose Leclerc nearly doubled Matt Barnes' career-best fWAR 2. a rebuilding team is unlikely to trade four years of a valuable asset in Leclerc for lottery tickets in Michael Chavis and Mike Shawaryn

Hypothetically, would the Red Sox deal high by trading three years of 28-year-old Matt Barnes for prospects the caliber of 23-year-old Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, and 24-year-old Mike Shawaryn, with a Future Value of only 40? https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa738524&position=P Chavis and Shawaryn are long shots to become MLB contributors. I ask because the early 2019 Steamer projections have Jose Leclerc and Barnes with 0.7 and 0.8 WAR, respectively, each in 65 innings. The nearly 25-year-old Leclerc has four years of team control to Barnes' three years.

I question whether 23-year-old strikeout-prone Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, would be enough to land four years of a reliever who this year ranked fourth among all relievers with 2.5 fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 As points of reference, this season Craig Kimbrel and Matt Barnes posted 1.5 and 1.3 fWAR, respectively. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B

Wade Miley -- who led the 2015 Red Sox in starts, innings and wins -- is available with these Fancred projections: . https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of

Carson Smith was among roster casualties: https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/03/16/red-sox-fleeced-mariners-in-wade-miley-trade/

In other words, the American League is the minimum above .500 over the last six World Series. The National League has won five of the last nine World Series.

The National League had more parity this year with baseball's weakest teams residing in the American League. The top teams in the American League were much better than the best teams in the National League but the worst teams in the American League were worse than the worst teams in the National League. Because only the top teams advance to the postseason, any disparity was exaggerated. The National League this year posted a 154-143 record in interleague play.