harmony

A Yankee blogger writes about this year's rivalry: https://www.pinstripealley.com/2018/7/3/17526964/yankees-red-sox-division-playoffs-giancarlo-stanton-gleyber-torres-aaron-judge

MLB.com columnist Jim Duquette predicts the Red Sox will land Cincinnati second baseman Scooter Gennett for the modest package of shortstop prospect C.J. Chatham and a lesser pitching prospect: Trade Deadline predictions for Machado, Hamels WWW.MLB.COM The non-waiver Trade Deadline is just about a month away, meaning media and fans will be buzzing about possible wheeling and dealing for the next month. Among the names that will be bandied about, the following 10 men are some of the likeliest to receive considerable attention given where contending I suspect Gennette would command a greater return.

Thanks for the link to the informative Jeff Sullivan piece. I wish I were half as knowledgeabe as my fellow Portlander and Mariner fan.

Or the Red Sox beat the Astros in the Wild Card game.

Seattle fans are enjoying the Mariners as the M's continue to exceed ongoing and widespread low expectations. It's almost a no-lose situation. I give great weight to the metrics that suggest the Mariners' best days are behind them this season. Nevertheless a postseason appearance would be a welcome improvement ... and anything can happen in the postseason. An insight into the mindset of a Mariner fan: On June 10 the M's were 17 games above .500 entering a daunting 17-game stretch that included contests against the Angels, Red Sox and Yankees before four in Baltimore to culminate a 10-game East Coast swing. I figured the Mariners would still be a respectable .500 if the M's lost all 17 games. Instead the Mariners have gone 13-7 since that date despite a disappointing 1-5 trip through Boston and New York. Perhaps the Mariners and Red Sox will play again this year. Or not.

With three more seasons of team control after this year, Kyle Barraclough could command a handsome return in a trade.

That may explain in part why FanGraphs projects Seattle to play below-.500 ball the remainder of the season en route to 92 wins: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds

In all seriousness, Seattle won't be taking on David Price's AAV salary of $31 million. That's crazy money in light of his production and injury concerns ... unless Price agrees to opt out after this season (that's not happening). Because of his postseason ineligibility, Robinson Cano might not have a dedicated starting role when he returns from the suspension list on August 15. Cano could be Seattle's super utility player if 1) he learns to play first base, a move rumored for several years, 2) if Ryon Healy can play once a week at third base, where he has played a majority of his MLB games, and 3) if Dee Gordon can play once a week at shortstop, his original position. Those contingencies would permit Cano to provide needed late-season breaks to Nelson Cruz at DH, Healy at first base, Gordon at second base, Jean Segura at shortstop and Kyle Seager at third base. Probably too many moving parts.

David Price has $142 million remaining on his contract through 2022 at an AAV of $31 million. Price may opt out after this season. Seattle second baseman Robinson Cano has $126 million remaining on his contract through 2023 at an AAV of $24 million. Cano has a full no-trade clause. Cano is suspended until August 15 and is not eligible for the postseason roster. Would the Red Sox trade Price straight up for Cano to gain $7 million annually* in space under the luxury tax threshold? I doubt Seattle would take on an AAV salary of $31 million. Just throwing out an idea that will never happen. * except in 2023 when Cano is still owed $24 million after Price's contract runs out

I hope Jay Groome has a productive MLB career. But today Groome has limited trade value.

If the Yankees win tonight the Red Sox and Yanks will be in a virtual tie with the Astros a game-and-a-half back and the Mariners two games back. The next closest Wild Card contender -- Oakland -- is another eight games behind Seattle. The postseason seeding should be interesting.

I addressed that issue on Saturday: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/18724-Who-Should-the-Red-Sox-Trade-For?p=1157694#post1157694

Brent Honeywell, unlike Jay Groome, made 24 starts at the Triple A level in 2017 en route to prospect rankings of No. 14, No. 12 and No. 11 by Baseball America, MLB.com and Baseball Prospectus entering this season. https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=honeyw002bre

The Tampa Bay Rays also have righthander Jose DeLeon, who entered the 2017 season as a Baseball America Top 30 prospect but who also is out this year following Tommy John surgery in March.

The Tampa Bay Rays have played in the less competitive division so far this year. The AL East has a cumulative record of 212-198 (.517) while the AL West has a cumulative record of 235-186 (.545). The AL East has a 53-58 (.477) record this year in head-to-head competition against the AL West. The disparity is magnified by the fact the AL West clubs have played 27 games against the Red Sox, 22 games against the Yankees, 24 games against the Rays and 23 against the Blue Jays, but only 15 games so far against the woeful Orioles, who to date are winless* in 15 tries against AL West teams. The Rays and A's indeed have good clubs but face formidable tasks to advance to the postseason. In race for the second Wild Card slot, the Mariners are seven games up on the Athletics, 10 games up on the Angels and 11 games up on the Rays. In fact the Mariners trail the Astros by only 1-1/2 games, the Yankees by two games and the Red Sox by three games. FanGraphs currently gives the Mariners an 83.4 percent, the Athletics a 9.4 percent and the Rays a 0.7 percent chance of advancing to the postseason: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds FiveThirtyEight has Seattle at 77 percent, Oakland at 7 percent and Tampa Bay at 12 percent: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/ Of course anything can happen with nearly half the season remaining. * the Orioles lead the Angels 8-1 in the seventh inning as I write.

Blake Swihart has not hit an MLB home run since stroking five in 2015: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml

Or both: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=farK_CyDefU

Boston Globe columnist Nick Cafardo reports that the Red Sox and Houston Astros are interested in Cincinnati reliever Raisel Iglesias: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2018/06/30/alex-rodriguez-talks-red-sox-yankees-david-price-wild-card-format-and-more/XjAlTKyAuxoaVtEuLce50M/story.html?p1=Team_LeadArticle https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/red-sox-notes-iglesias-deadline-lind-chavis.html I can't imagine the Reds would be willing to pay any of 2018 salary of $5.214 million of Iglesias, who remains under team contract through 2020 at a total cost of about $12.5 million (although Iglesias reportedly can opt into arbitration after this season). As a result, Iglesias would likely have serious luxury tax implications.

Even before Tommy John surgery, 19-year-old Jay Groome was a long ways off with a 5.37 ERA and 4.9 BB/9 ratio in 17 starts in the low minor leagues. Even before TJS, Groome's prospect stock had dropped significantly from 2017 to 2018. Other teams might have limited interest but the left-hander probably does not offer great trade value.

Mike Trout has hit 20 home runs in 66 games at Safeco Field in Seattle (easily to most of any away park).

The Red Sox have signed second baseman Brandon Phillips to a minor league contract: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/06/red-sox-sign-brandon-phillips.html

I have my two offspring home together for an eight-day stretch for perhaps the last time as one just graduated from college and the other just finished her freshman year. The younger one leaves Friday for five weeks in Africa while the other moves to Washington D.C. next month for her first post-college job. It's bittersweet ... but good.

The Seattle Mariners had only one year of team control left with Drew Smyly, a year that was jeopardized by the lefthander's Tommy John surgery. The Mariners did not want to pay Smyly upwards of $7 million for a single season in which Smyly might not pitch. Seattle reportedly tried to match the two-year, $10 million contract signed with the Chicago Cubs last December. Smyly might pitch in relief later this year ... or not: http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/ct-spt-cubs-drew-smyly-20180608-story.html

Only three American League teams have lower opponent batting averages: the Astros (.205), Yankees (.216) and Rays (.223). https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=al&qual=0&type=1&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=9,a

I also question whether the Cubs would entertain offers for Javier Baez but Eduardo Rodriguez offers an interesting trade match. Baez, who is four months older than Rodriguez, has posted 5.8 fWAR and 8.0 bWAR in his career, entering this season with two years and 89 days of MLB service. Rodriguez has posted 6.4 fWAR and 6.7 bWAR in his career, entering this season with two years and 130 days of MLB service as a Super Two in the first of four arbitration years. ZiPS. Steamer and FanGraphs Depth Charts project rest-of-season WAR of 0.9, 1.1 and 1.1 for Baez and 1.3, 1.1 and 1.2 for Rodriguez.