harmony

Would you switch jobs with Ben Cherington if given the opportunity? Just curious.

If an opinion reminds me of statistics that may be relevant to that opinion, I share those stats. The poster (and reader) can choose to incorporate those stats into their thinking ... or ignore the stats. I don't care to tell anyone how to think.

I thought you might enjoy the take of FanGraphs columnist Jeff Sullivan: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-as-are-being-led-from-the-back/

FanGraphs has started releasing its annual midseason rankings of trade value: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-41-to-50/ https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2018-trade-value-honorable-mentions/ Whereas Xander Bogaerts has slipped from No. 45 last year to honorable mention this year, Seattle shortstop Jean Segura sneaks into the rankings at No. 49. For a year now I have found the comp of Bogaerts and Segura interesting (probably more interesting than most fans). Bogaerts remains under team control only through next season working off his 2018 salary of $7.05 million. Segura is owed about $61 million on his contract that runs through four more seasons with a team option of $17 million, or a $1 million buyout, for an additional year in 2023. Bogaerts and Segura each had a monster 2016 season. Since the start of that season, Bogaerts has posted 11.3 fWAR in 384 games while Segura has posted 11.1 fWAR in 368 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players= In 2016 Segura played second base and was deprived fWAR's favorable position adjustment for a shortstop. https://www.fangraphs.com/library/war/war-position-players/ A trade of Bogaerts for Segura would never occur but I suspect neither team would trade its current asset for the other shortstop.

Your ignorance of demographics is astounding. And that's coming from a Portland resident. The Mariners are not the club for a fan whose life has a success void yearning to be filled by the on-field success of his or her favorite sports team. I am fortunate that my life lacks a success void. I enjoy pulling for the underdog, a label the Mariners richly deserve after failing to advance to the postseason since 2001. I prefer the underdog to the Seattle Seahawks and the Seattle Sounders, who have reached the pinnacles of their respective sports in the past five years. Enjoy the Red Sox success ... and I'll endure the Mariners success or failure.

A little of both.

FiveThirtyEight currently ranks the Athletics ahead of the Mariners: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/ Although the FanGraphs rest-of-season projections have the Mariners ahead of the Athletics (and the Red Sox in third place): https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Team I'm enjoying the season regardless.

The Seattle tailspin has indeed been remarkable. FiveThirtyEight now gives the Mariners a 52 percent chance of advancing to the postseason and the Athletics a 36 percent chance: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/ FanGraphs has the Mariners at 64 percent and the Athletics at 30.9 percent: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds The negative run differential has been miraculous. It has been -- and should continue to be -- an interesting season for Mariner fans. Best wishes the remainder of the season.

Rusney Castillo at $11 million earns more this year than Brian Dozier at $9 million and is owed $11 million in 2019 and $13.5 million in 2020. I don't see the Twins taking on salary for that modest return in talent.

The 1963 World Series between the Dodgers and Yankees was the first I watched but the 1965 World Series was the most memorable because I was a Minnesota Twins fan who turned 10 years old on the travel day between Game 2 and Game 3 of the series. The Twins weren't expected to be good that year but advanced to Game 7 of the series before succumbing to the masterful Sandy Koufax for the second time in three starts.

Very cool.

The Huskies have some tough road games this year: http://www.uconnhuskies.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/conn-m-footbl-sched.html Have fun!

In June 2017 Seattle shortstop Jean Segura was one-plus years away from free agency when the 2018 All Star signed a five-year, $70 million extension with the Mariners with a $17 million team option for a sixth year. Boston shortstop Xander Bogaerts, who is two-and-a-half years younger than Segura, is one-plus years away from free agency. Segura has posted 15.0 fWAR in 844 career games, including 3.1 fWAR and 2.9 bWAR in 87 games this season. Segura had posted about 11 fWAR in 675 games when he signed the extension in June 2017. Bogaerts has posted 15.9 fWAR in 699 games, including 2.9 fWAR and 2.0 bWAR in 76 games this season. Bogaerts and Segura each had a monster 2016 season. Since the start of that season, Bogaerts has posted 11.1 fWAR in 381 games while Segura has posted 11.1 fWAR in 365 games: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2016&ind=0&team=&rost=&age=&filter=&players= I doubt Bogaerts and agent Scott Boras will agree to an extension, certainly not a five-year, $70 million extension.

I had not cast an All Star vote in decades and now regret casting multiple votes for Jean Segura, who could probably stand a rest instead of flying across the country for the chance of one at-bat.

I was only somewhat bothered by the Biogenesis scandal but this Seattle fan was adamantly opposed to the Mariners' rumored interest in Nelson Cruz following his 2013 season with the Rangers. I mistakenly thought Safeco Field would kill his right-handed power bat. After Cruz posted impressive numbers with the Orioles in 2014, I warmed up to the idea of the Mariners acquiring Cruz, who signed with Seattle in December 2014. Beyond his abundant offensive output with the Mariners (OPS+ 151 and 148 HR in 540 games), Cruz has provided needed leadership in the Seattle clubhouse. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/nelson-cruz-gathers-mariners-teammates-for-workouts-in-miami/

From Fancred columnist Ian Crimmins: "Red Sox continue to wipe floor with the rest of baseball. Are they really this good?" https://fancredsports.com/articles/red-sox-continue-to-wipe-floor-with-the-rest-of

You may be right but an interesting comp is provided by Jalen Beeks and Tacoma righthander Rob Whalen, a pair of former 12th-round draft picks. Beeks has been impressive in his cherry-picked 82.2 innings at Triple A this year. As notin noted, Beeks has not pitched in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League where Seattle's Triple A Tacoma Rainiers play. In the larger and more meaningful samples of their minor league careers, Beeks and Whalen have posted these numbers: JB 511 IP, 3.66 ERA, 1.26 WHIP, 158 BB, 484 K RW 490 IP, 3.27 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 165 BB, 431 K And their minuscule MLB lines this year: JB 6.1 IP, 12.49 ERA, 2.37 WHIP, 4 BB, 5 K RW 4.0 IP, 0.00 ERA, 0.50 WHIP, 1 BB, 0 K Whalen's four scoreless innings came in the Mariners' 7-6 win against the high-flying Red Sox: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201806150.shtml Whalen's career MLB line: RW 36 IP, 5.75 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 15 BB, 27 K Whalen is six months younger than Beeks. I'm not suggesting that one pitcher is better than the other, but they provide interesting comps.

I fully expect Xander Bogarts' agent, Scott Boras, to work hard in developing daunting demands on behalf of his client.

Given the luxury tax implications, a Xander Bogaerts extension would limit the Red Sox ability to enter the free agent markets and/or extend Mookie Betts. The Red Sox will get out from under the salaries of Hanley Ramirez, Craig Kimbrel, Drew Pomeranz, Joe Kelly and Steve Pearce but may need replacements on top of arbitration raises.

Xander Bogaerts, who becomes a free agent after the 2019 season, should hold little appeal for Baltimore unless the Orioles plan to compete in 2019.

Henry Owens, who is only one year older than Jalen Beeks, had a more impressive MLB debut in his 2015 rookie season: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/gl.fcgi?id=owenshe02&t=p&year=2015 Owens had been a Top 50 prospect for two years before his call-up while Beeks has never appeared in the major prospect rankings. In the SoxProspects organizational rankings, Owens peaked at No. 2 in a loaded system while Beeks currently ranks sixth in a lightly regarded system: http://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm

To be precise, in that statistically insignificant sample, the Rays are 8-3 and the Blue Jays 6-11 against the Athletics, Angels and Rangers. 14-14 overall. In far larger samples, the Rays and Blue Jays are a combined five games under .500 while the Athletics and Angels are a combined 12 games above .500.

Let's not forget: https://www.mlssoccer.com/all-star/2018 https://www.statista.com/statistics/207458/per-game-attendance-of-major-us-sports-leagues/

Regular posters to this forum know that I place great weight on metrics that show the Mariners to be a significant tier below the Astros, Red Sox and Yankees. The Mariners face a daunting task in a division with perhaps baseball's best team and three clubs that entered today's games at a combined even .500.

A Red Sox season of 110 wins falls within the realm of possibility as does a season of 98 wins. Systematic projections have the Red Sox falling somewhere in between: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-mlb-predictions/ https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings