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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. harmony
    An undervalued stock is undervalued only until the market players recognize that the stock is undervalued. The resulting demand for the undervalued stock results in the stock being appropriately valued and often eventually overvalued.
  2. harmony
    This year Craig Kimbrel ranked 22nd among all relievers in fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0
  3. harmony
    This forum's one consensus.
  4. harmony
    Farm systems probably are overrated. Fifteen or 20 years ago prospects may have represented a market inefficiency. But like in most markets, the inefficiency disappears when many market players recognize the inefficiency. Attempts to capitalize on that inefficiency drive up the demand to the point the market may be overrated. I suspect Dave Dombrowski and other general managers recognized the overheated market for prospects and instead traded those overvalued assets for MLB-ready players. And Dombrowski has enjoyed some success.
  5. harmony
    MLB Trade Rumors offers luxury tax coverage: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/red-sox-nationals-only-two-teams-to-exceed-2018-luxury-tax-threshold.html
  6. harmony
    Indeed we don't know how each front office values individual players. For all we know, in a trade of four years of Jose Leclerc, the Rangers could demand three years of Eduardo Rodriguez, whose 2018 fWAR fell short of Leclerc's but whose 2019 Steamer projection triples that of Leclerc. Seattle could make available two years of righthander Alex Colome, who in 2017 led the American League in saves pitching in the AL East. However, I don't see a good match for a trade with the Red Sox.
  7. harmony
    1. which is why the Steamer projections are so similar even though this year Jose Leclerc nearly doubled Matt Barnes' career-best fWAR 2. a rebuilding team is unlikely to trade four years of a valuable asset in Leclerc for lottery tickets in Michael Chavis and Mike Shawaryn
  8. harmony
    Hypothetically, would the Red Sox deal high by trading three years of 28-year-old Matt Barnes for prospects the caliber of 23-year-old Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, and 24-year-old Mike Shawaryn, with a Future Value of only 40? https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa738524&position=P Chavis and Shawaryn are long shots to become MLB contributors. I ask because the early 2019 Steamer projections have Jose Leclerc and Barnes with 0.7 and 0.8 WAR, respectively, each in 65 innings. The nearly 25-year-old Leclerc has four years of team control to Barnes' three years.
  9. harmony
    I question whether 23-year-old strikeout-prone Michael Chavis, with a Future Value of only 45, would be enough to land four years of a reliever who this year ranked fourth among all relievers with 2.5 fWAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0 As points of reference, this season Craig Kimbrel and Matt Barnes posted 1.5 and 1.3 fWAR, respectively. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B
  10. harmony
    Wade Miley -- who led the 2015 Red Sox in starts, innings and wins -- is available with these Fancred projections: . https://fancredsports.com/Articles/inside-baseball-predicting-the-deals-for-131-of
  11. harmony
    Carson Smith was among roster casualties: https://bosoxinjection.com/2018/03/16/red-sox-fleeced-mariners-in-wade-miley-trade/
  12. harmony
    In other words, the American League is the minimum above .500 over the last six World Series. The National League has won five of the last nine World Series.
  13. harmony
    The National League had more parity this year with baseball's weakest teams residing in the American League. The top teams in the American League were much better than the best teams in the National League but the worst teams in the American League were worse than the worst teams in the National League. Because only the top teams advance to the postseason, any disparity was exaggerated. The National League this year posted a 154-143 record in interleague play.
  14. harmony
    FanGraphs gives Michael Chavis a modest Future Value of 45: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=sa828673&position=3B Top prospects have a Future Value of 70: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-updated-top-131-prospect-rankings/
  15. harmony
    David Price has posted 8.8 fWAR, valued at $59.9 million, in his three Boston seasons while being paid $90 million. If he does not opt out, the lefthander has four years and $127 million remaining on his contract. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=3184&position=P#value I question whether a 33-year-old Price would do better on the open market.
  16. harmony
    To be fair, David Freese was a 28-year-old pre-arbitration player with only two years of MLB service when he was named most valuable player of the 2011 World Series and National League Championship Series.
  17. harmony
    With the exception of Bobby Valentine, the Red Sox have enjoyed good fortune with first-year managers over the past 15 years. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/
  18. harmony
    I suspect the sample is too small to be meaningful.
  19. harmony
    Comparing long-term contracts ... If he does not opt out, David Price has four years and $127 million remaining on his deal after posting 8.7 fWAR, valued at about $59.9 million, over the first three seasons of the lefthander's seven-year, $210 million contract. Robinson Cano's $240 million, 10-year contract with Seattle was ridiculed but the putative second baseman has five years and $120 million remaining on his contract after posting 20.7 fWAR, valued at about $163.7 million, over his first five seasons with the Mariners. Despite an 80-game suspension, Cano this season posted 2.9 fWAR, valued at $23.6 million, while earning a $24 million salary. Of course, the now 36-year-old Cano has not brought the hoped-for postseason berth to Seattle (by little fault of his own) while the 33-year-old Price contributed to a World Series title.
  20. harmony
    Two years of Seattle reliever Alex Colome, the 2017 league leader in saves pitching in the AL East, could be available ... But I don't see a good match.
  21. harmony
    David Price ‏ Verified account @DAVIDprice24 Follow Follow @DAVIDprice24 More ... #Iholdthecardsnow 11:06 PM - 28 Oct 2018
  22. harmony
  23. harmony
    A Red Sox fan and his wife had my wife and me over the dinner last night to watch Game 4 ... the Sox turned it around about when dessert was served. My hat is off to the 2019 Red Sox.
  24. harmony
    Impressive win, impressive season.
  25. harmony
    Comparing Ian Kinsler and Dustin Pedroia: https://www.overthemonster.com/2018/8/3/17645652/ian-kinsler-dustin-pedroia-red-sox-second-base I saw Kinsler play for the Clinton LumberKings in 2004 when the 22-year-old slashed .402/.465/.692/1.157 over 255 plate appearances in the Class A Midwest League: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kinsle001ian The good veteran had a bad night on Friday.
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