harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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Be careful about relying on last year's small samples for Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, Drew Pomeranz and Hanley Ramirez. The 29-year-old Eovaldi has a career ERA+ of 96 in 850 innings while the 30-year-old Pomeranz has a career ERA+ of 110 in 710 innings. The nearly 36-year-old Pearce has a career OPS+ of 111 in 737 games while the 35-year-old Ramirez has a career OPS+ of 124 in 1,652 games. If we rely on small samples, Pearce will be hard-pressed to match the .330/.400/.474/.874 line Ramirez posted in 110 plate appearances last March (12 PA) and April. Pearce never made more than 56 plate appearances in a month with the Red Sox. Last year the Red Sox may have caught lightning in a bottle with Eovaldi and Pearce.
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Red Sox third basemen in their first two MLB seasons: WM 169 G, 660 PA, 75 R, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .254/.294/.462/.756, OPS+ 102 RD 179 G, 730 PA, 93 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, .254/.311/.449/.760. OPS+ 100 Of course, Will Middlebrooks was three years older than Rafael Devers in those respective years. With some confidence I suspect Devers will have a better career than Middlebrooks but a wide range of outcomes is possible.
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Michael Chavis homers: MLB Gameday: Yankees 5, Red Sox 8 Final Score (02/23/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Yankees vs. Red Sox at JetBlue Park
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https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2019/02/21/veteran-globe-baseball-writer-nick-cafardo-dies/2ApW3rmk8q7I5qfeOmOjfL/story.html
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The San Francisco Giants reportedly have signed relievers Nick Vincent and Fernando Abad to minor league deals:
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Seattle reportedly is in the market for a defensively superb right-handing hitting catcher to complement presumed starter Omar Narvaez: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/mariners-rumors-martin-maldonado-interest.html The Mariners reportedly are interested in free agent Martin Maldonado, who last year finished seventh in the Fielding Bible voting at catcher, two slots behind Sandy Leon. http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp In 2017 Maldonado finished a runaway first in the voting, Christian Vazquez seventh and Leon ninth: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp Regardless I doubt the Red Sox and Mariners matched up in a trade.
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Marcel projects Rafael Devers with a 2019 OPS of .769 while ZiPS projects an OPS of .800: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
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Today's humor: https://www.pinstripealley.com/2019/2/20/18230487/yankees-offseason-manny-machado-bryce-harper-world-series-projections-red-sox-astros-cubs
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The Guardians may be weakest in the outfield: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=C https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=LF https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RF
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Given their farm systems the franchises of the Red Sox and Padres may be headed in different directions. Or not. I look forward to seeing Manny Machado play in late April in Washington DC and in mid-May in San Diego.
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Cleveland might not want Christian Vazquez and his guaranteed money when the Guardians already have two comparable catchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=5&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Vazquez and Cleveland catcher Roberto Perez have comparable contracts: https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/ https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/american-league/cleveland-Guardians-2/ ... although Perez has a shorter guarantee at slightly lower salaries. Cleveland catcher Kevin Plawecki has a 2019 salary of $1.1375 million as a Super Two with four years of team control.
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No reason to believe the post was about Sandy Leon: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart
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Blake Swihart has two years and 164 days of MLB service and therefore cannot declare free agency if he clears waivers: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml
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On-field experience will exploit those who ignore it.
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Big Data will exploit those who ignore it.
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Including the Boston Globe's Peter Abraham: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/02/18/here-what-john-henry-and-tom-werner-had-say-about-state-red-sox/66rTg33P7RxM3nX2swbG7N/story.html?event=event12
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Here are Steamer600 projections for Red Sox catchers: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Blake Swihart fares better in a ZiPS comparison despite a negative WAR projection: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/
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David Price was 30 years old with 31.9 fWAR, 29.2 bWAR, 126 ERA+ and 3.09 ERA in 1,441.2 innings when the Red Sox signed the lefthander to a seven-year, $217 million contract. Lefthander Chris Sale, who turns 30 next month, has posted 41.8 fWAR, 43.1 bWAR, 144 ERA+ and 2.89 ERA in 1,482.1 innings. Perhaps the market has changed but Chris Sale will be expensive.
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In that scenario Blake Swihart would still be out of options. Swihart could be optioned to the minors only if he goes unclaimed on waivers.
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The Red Sox should mercifully designate Blake Swihart for assignment in hopes of finding a trade partner. If Swihart clears waivers he can get regular playing time at Pawtucket to establish his trade value. If another club claims Swihart, Red Sox fans will likely forget him in short order.
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Former ESPN columnist and "analytics pioneer" Rob Neyer made that point (and many other excellent points) in his latest book Power Ball: Anatomy of a Modern Baseball Game: https://www.harpercollins.com/9780062853615/power-ball/
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Openers apparently are supported by analytics, which are all about increasing the chances of winning, not about providing the best entertainment for the fan. That's often the conundrum with analytics.
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That would be a good result for the Red Sox and Blake Swihart (who could get regular playing time at Pawtucket to enhance his trade value ... or not).
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https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=SP
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A baseball fan with 40+ hours to spare might be interested in the podcasts with Seattle general manager Jerry Dipoto: http://seattle.mariners.mlb.com/fan_forum/podcasts/index.jsp?c_id=sea&podcast=wheelhouse Dipoto might not always make the right decision but his podcasts are informative and often entertaining.