harmony

The Pacific Northwest is football (soccer) country.

We probably all know that person who lives paycheck to paycheck, never saving a dime and never planning for the future. I used that analogy back in 2013 when the Houston Astros were losing 111 games a season-ending payroll of only $29.3 million. The Astros could have spent all of their revenue-sharing money and still not come close to being competitive. Instead Houston patiently let its young players develop before investing in higher-paid veterans. The 2017 Astros won the World Series with a payroll of $140.5 million and ended the 2018 season ranked seventh among all clubs with a payroll of $187.4 million. https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-west/houston-astros/ In short, the Astros saved their money until it was prudent to spend. Houston benefited from some high draft picks but endured the disappointments of No. 1 overall picks Mark Appel and Brady Aiken. The Astros have reaped the rewards of No. 1 pick Carlos Correa, No. 2 pick Alex Bregman, No. 11 pick George Springer and No. 41 pick Lance McCullers Jr. https://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?team_ID=HOU&draft_round=1&draft_type=junreg&query_type=franch_round

Going into Sunday's game Michael Chavis had faced Spring Training pitchers who on the average played just below Double A last year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=chavis000mic See OppQual score of 6.4 in 2019 Spring Training stats. On Sunday Chavis faced pitchers who have 24.2 and 46 innings of MLB experience, stroking his fourth home run of the spring. As points of reference, entering Sunday's games Mookie Betts and J.D. Martinez had OppQual ratings of 8.4, or just above Triple A on the average.

Jenrry Mejia will lead the Red Sox in saves this year. Or not.😋

For the record: In the past decade the Red Sox have as many last-place finishes as the Houston Astros.

What teams consistently put "poor quality on the field"? The last winning season and last postseason appearance by each team: Atlanta 2018, 2018 Arizona 2018, 2017 Baltimore 2016, 2016 Boston 2018, 2018 Chicago Cubs 2018, 2018 Chicago White Sox 2012, 2008 Cincinnati 2013, 2013 Cleveland 2018, 2018 Colorado 2018, 2018 Detroit 2016, 2014 Houston 2018, 2018 Kansas City 2015, 2015 Los Angeles Angels 2015, 2014 Los Angeles Dodgers 2018, 2018 Miami 2009, 2003 Milwaukee 2018, 2018 Minnesota 2017, 2017 New York Mets 2016, 2016 New York Yankees 2018, 2018 Oakland 2018, 2018 Philadelphia 2011, 2011 Pittsburgh 2018, 2015 Saint Louis 2018, 2015 San Diego 2010, 2006 San Francisco 2016, 2016 Seattle 2018, 2001 Tampa Bay 2018, 2013 Texas 2016, 2016 Toronto 2016, 2016 Washington 2018, 2017 Most laggards have shown the willingness to spend money.

One FanGraphs measure has the Red Sox fourth in projected WAR: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=ALL&teamid=3 A year ago the defending World Series champion Houston Astros were the apparent favorites to repeat ... by a significant margin: https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds?date=2018-03-28&dateDelta=

I suspect the Starting Five is an outdated concept. Teams will use their pitching staffs in more creative ways.

It could be worse. The Seattle Mariners jettisoned the top five fWAR producers from last season's bullpen, including the All World Edwin Diaz: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=11&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=18,d The Seattle bullpen ranked fifth in the league in fWAR last year but is projected to finish 14th this year, three slots behind the Red Sox at No. 11: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=RP

Each individual deals with each death differently. When my sister died unexpectedly I figured she would want me to keep working. Two weeks later I took a long weekend to fly back to speak at her memorial service. Her husband and in-laws, who lived locally, took care of arrangements. I was a professor on a research semester with no classes when my father fell ill and died a few months later. I did not get much research done that semester and may have confused my unhappiness about my father's declining health with unhappiness about my job. I interviewed for another job one week after my father's funeral and decided to leave when I probably was not in a good state to make that decision. Thirty years later I am blessed to be where I am but I'll always have second thoughts about that move from a bucolic town in the nation's least populous state to the largest metropolis in the nation's most populous state. My current employer was gracious when my mother was in failing health 15-20 years ago. My oldest sister was my mother's primary caregiver but I would travel halfway across the country three or four times a year to help out. I was with her in the final days of her life but stayed for only two days after her funeral before returning to work. I'm not ashamed to say I had a great time at the funerals of my sister, father and mother. I enjoyed sharing stories with people I had not seen for years. I hope family and friends celebrate my life when I die. Did I share too much information?

The current SoxProspect write-up of Michael Chavis includes much information that had been reported earlier: http://soxprospects.com/players/chavis-michael.htm Not right or wrong but merely curious. Regarding the "Consensus top 100 prospect entering 2018 season" reference, Chavis was ranked among the Top 100 prospects by Baseball America, MLB.com and Keith Law but not by Baseball Prospectus and John Sickels at Minor League Ball.

How about righthander Kyle Zimmer, the fifth player taken in the 2012 draft and a four-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect? https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=zimmer000kyl Zimmer has yet to make his MLB debut.

Tommy John surgery reportedly has been recommended for All Star catcher Salvador Perez of the Kansas City Royals: ... but the Royals have other options at catcher, according to the Steamer600 projections that assume 450 plate appearances for each catcher: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=7&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Should the Red Sox made a trade offer? Although the Royals might prefer a defensive catcher, Blake Swihart could re-establish his value in Kansas City ... or not.

MLB Prospect Watch prominently mentions PED suspensions in its write-ups of prospects Forrest Whitley of the Astros, Michael Chavis of the Red Sox, Griffin Conine of the Blue Jays and Oscar De La Cruz of the Cubs: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects From an Astros prospect site: http://www.astrosfuture.com/2018/02/astros-top-five-starting-pitching-prospects-2018/ ... and a Cubs site: https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/1/16/18184346/top-20-cubs-prospects-countdown-aramis-ademan-dillon-maples-trent-giambrone-alex-lange ... and a Blue Jays site: https://futurebluejays.com/2018/11/21/conine-releases-statement-regarding-ped-suspension/

Clay Buchholtz was a free agent who could eliminate some of the 30 teams from consideration. On the flip side, any of the 30 clubs could eliminate Buchholtz from consideration. Perhaps the Red Sox were never in the running.

Does 38-year-old Ryan Madson have any game left? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/madsory01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P Madson could be a decent buy-low candidate coming off a season with an ERA of 5.47 in 52.2 innings.

I had hoped the Seattle Mariners would re-sign Adam Warren.

The San Diego Padres reportedly sign reliever Adam Warren for a guaranteed $2.5 million:

I suspect few people in "the whole world" know who Michael Chavis is.

It's curious that SoxProspects was silent on the PED suspension in its 600-word write-up of Michael Chavis, its top-ranked Sox prospect: http://soxprospects.com/players/chavis-michael.htm

Perhaps Michael Chavis has a ceiling of Jorge Cantu: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cantujo01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2521&position=1B/3B ... although Chavis strikes out at a far higher frequency. The floor? That's another matter ...

Nathan Eovaldi virtually replaced Drew Pomeranz in the starting rotation last year with Eovaldi making his first start for the Red Sox on July 29 and Pomeranz his last start on August 7. Outside of Pomeranz, Eovaldi and the Big Four, the Red Sox got only 25 starts from Brian Johnson, Hector Velazquez and Steven Wright for only 15.4 percent of the starts. Steamer optimistically projects Chris Sale with 32 starts in 202 innings, David Price 32 in 194, Rick Porcello 32 in 191, Eovaldi 28 in 152 and Eduardo Rodriguez 24 in 136. Velazquez comes in at three and 67, Wright three and 69, and Johnson three and 18. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=6,d On the other hand, Marcel projects Sale with only 161 innings, Price 153, Porcello 176, Eovaldi 113 and Rodriguez 135. Johnson, Velazquez, Erasmo Ramirez and Wright are not far behind with 91, 77, 75 and 71 innings: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-projections.shtml Many teams will get at least 25 percent of their starts from pitchers not among the preseason projected Starting Five. The Red Sox could be one of those clubs.

The Red Sox should take the chance that Blake Swihart will clear waivers (and then be outrighted to Pawtucket). That chance is better than a nondescript minor leaguer.

One who got away: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/angels-righty-ty-buttrey-on-how-he-turned-a-corner/

The footnote shows how much the free agent market has changed in 10 years because when Jason Varitek declined arbitration after the 2008 season apparently no club would sign Varitek with a compensation pick attached: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/jason-varitek-a.html