harmony

MLB Prospect Watch prominently mentions PED suspensions in its write-ups of prospects Forrest Whitley of the Astros, Michael Chavis of the Red Sox, Griffin Conine of the Blue Jays and Oscar De La Cruz of the Cubs: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects From an Astros prospect site: http://www.astrosfuture.com/2018/02/astros-top-five-starting-pitching-prospects-2018/ ... and a Cubs site: https://www.bleedcubbieblue.com/2019/1/16/18184346/top-20-cubs-prospects-countdown-aramis-ademan-dillon-maples-trent-giambrone-alex-lange ... and a Blue Jays site: https://futurebluejays.com/2018/11/21/conine-releases-statement-regarding-ped-suspension/

Clay Buchholtz was a free agent who could eliminate some of the 30 teams from consideration. On the flip side, any of the 30 clubs could eliminate Buchholtz from consideration. Perhaps the Red Sox were never in the running.

Does 38-year-old Ryan Madson have any game left? https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/madsory01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1852&position=P Madson could be a decent buy-low candidate coming off a season with an ERA of 5.47 in 52.2 innings.

I had hoped the Seattle Mariners would re-sign Adam Warren.

The San Diego Padres reportedly sign reliever Adam Warren for a guaranteed $2.5 million:

I suspect few people in "the whole world" know who Michael Chavis is.

It's curious that SoxProspects was silent on the PED suspension in its 600-word write-up of Michael Chavis, its top-ranked Sox prospect: http://soxprospects.com/players/chavis-michael.htm

Perhaps Michael Chavis has a ceiling of Jorge Cantu: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cantujo01.shtml https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2521&position=1B/3B ... although Chavis strikes out at a far higher frequency. The floor? That's another matter ...

Nathan Eovaldi virtually replaced Drew Pomeranz in the starting rotation last year with Eovaldi making his first start for the Red Sox on July 29 and Pomeranz his last start on August 7. Outside of Pomeranz, Eovaldi and the Big Four, the Red Sox got only 25 starts from Brian Johnson, Hector Velazquez and Steven Wright for only 15.4 percent of the starts. Steamer optimistically projects Chris Sale with 32 starts in 202 innings, David Price 32 in 194, Rick Porcello 32 in 191, Eovaldi 28 in 152 and Eduardo Rodriguez 24 in 136. Velazquez comes in at three and 67, Wright three and 69, and Johnson three and 18. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=6,d On the other hand, Marcel projects Sale with only 161 innings, Price 153, Porcello 176, Eovaldi 113 and Rodriguez 135. Johnson, Velazquez, Erasmo Ramirez and Wright are not far behind with 91, 77, 75 and 71 innings: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-projections.shtml Many teams will get at least 25 percent of their starts from pitchers not among the preseason projected Starting Five. The Red Sox could be one of those clubs.

The Red Sox should take the chance that Blake Swihart will clear waivers (and then be outrighted to Pawtucket). That chance is better than a nondescript minor leaguer.

One who got away: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/angels-righty-ty-buttrey-on-how-he-turned-a-corner/

The footnote shows how much the free agent market has changed in 10 years because when Jason Varitek declined arbitration after the 2008 season apparently no club would sign Varitek with a compensation pick attached: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2009/01/jason-varitek-a.html

Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 1.9 for 32-year-old switch-hitting catcher Matt Wieters, a four-time All Star and two-time Gold Glove winner* who reportedly has signed a minor league contract with the St. Louis Cardinals: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=0&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d Steamer600 projects 2019 WAR of 1.4 for Christian Vazquez, 0.8 for Sandy Leon and 0.2 for Blake Swihart: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=27,d The trade market for the Red Sox catchers may be limited. * Wieters has posted 18.4 fWAR and 18.0 bWAR in 1,081 games over 10 MLB seasons while switch-hitting catcher Jason Varitek, a three-time All Star and one-time Gold Glove winner, posted 19.5 fWAR and 18.4 bWAR in 1,068 games over his first 10 MLB seasons (Varitek was two years older in age than Wieters in parallel seasons of the Georgia Tech products).

The Red Sox bullpen reportedly is complete: https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/dombrowski-red-sox-wont-be-signing-any-more-relievers

And Bryce Brentz homers: MLB Gameday: Red Sox 3, Pirates 4 Final Score (02/25/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Red Sox vs. Pirates at LECOM Park

The 1998 Seattle Mariners lost 85 games despite a lineup that featured Alex Rodriguez and Hall of Famers Ken Griffey Jr., Randy Johnson and Edgar Martinez. Johnson missed part of the 1998 with injuries but the previous season the Mariners lost in the division series after winning 90 games with all four stars generally healthy. Many teams have a curse to break.

After two winters of discontent, Red Sox designated hitter J.D. Martinez expressed his frustration: "You can go right now through everyone's lineup and you already know who's going to be in the playoffs." https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/jd-martinez-new-world-free-agency-its-embarrassing-baseball Nevertheless, I would never call any club "trash." A surprise team emerges almost every year, whether it be the 2014 Kansas City Royals, the 2017 Minnesota Twins or the 2018 Oakland Athletics. That's what makes the baseball season interesting.

The small sample was offered precisely to mock its weakness.

Be careful about relying on last year's small samples for Nathan Eovaldi, Steve Pearce, Drew Pomeranz and Hanley Ramirez. The 29-year-old Eovaldi has a career ERA+ of 96 in 850 innings while the 30-year-old Pomeranz has a career ERA+ of 110 in 710 innings. The nearly 36-year-old Pearce has a career OPS+ of 111 in 737 games while the 35-year-old Ramirez has a career OPS+ of 124 in 1,652 games. If we rely on small samples, Pearce will be hard-pressed to match the .330/.400/.474/.874 line Ramirez posted in 110 plate appearances last March (12 PA) and April. Pearce never made more than 56 plate appearances in a month with the Red Sox. Last year the Red Sox may have caught lightning in a bottle with Eovaldi and Pearce.

Red Sox third basemen in their first two MLB seasons: WM 169 G, 660 PA, 75 R, 32 HR, 103 RBI, .254/.294/.462/.756, OPS+ 102 RD 179 G, 730 PA, 93 R, 31 HR, 96 RBI, .254/.311/.449/.760. OPS+ 100 Of course, Will Middlebrooks was three years older than Rafael Devers in those respective years. With some confidence I suspect Devers will have a better career than Middlebrooks but a wide range of outcomes is possible.

Michael Chavis homers: MLB Gameday: Yankees 5, Red Sox 8 Final Score (02/23/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Yankees vs. Red Sox at JetBlue Park

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2019/02/21/veteran-globe-baseball-writer-nick-cafardo-dies/2ApW3rmk8q7I5qfeOmOjfL/story.html

The San Francisco Giants reportedly have signed relievers Nick Vincent and Fernando Abad to minor league deals:

Seattle reportedly is in the market for a defensively superb right-handing hitting catcher to complement presumed starter Omar Narvaez: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/02/mariners-rumors-martin-maldonado-interest.html The Mariners reportedly are interested in free agent Martin Maldonado, who last year finished seventh in the Fielding Bible voting at catcher, two slots behind Sandy Leon. http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp In 2017 Maldonado finished a runaway first in the voting, Christian Vazquez seventh and Leon ninth: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp Regardless I doubt the Red Sox and Mariners matched up in a trade.

Marcel projects Rafael Devers with a 2019 OPS of .769 while ZiPS projects an OPS of .800: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2019-zips-projections-boston-red-sox/