harmony

The better team: the Boston Red Sox. I make no prediction but I will be disappointed if the Red Sox win three games (as the Sox have in only one of the past six four-game series in Seattle). I would be OK with a split, which was the result in five of the last six four-game series in Seattle. I will be happy if the Mariners win three (or four) games.

And that team still could not leave Seattle with a mere series win.

A four-game Red Sox sweep in Seattle would be truly historic because the Sox have never pulled it off in the Mariners' 42-season existence (despite six four-game series in the past decade alone). The undefeated M's welcome the defending World Series champions to Seattle's renamed T-Mobile Park where I will be in attendance next Sunday. I suspect my expectations are more realistic than yours. Or not.

The Colorado Rockies have placed Tom Murphy on waivers. Tom Murphy placed on waivers by Rockies WWW.MLB.COM SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- The Rockies have settled on Tony Wolters and Chris Iannetta as their catchers -- a decision that came into focus Saturday when Major League sources told MLB.com that the club has placed Tom Murphy on waivers to gauge trade interest. Last season, Iannetta appeared defensively at catcher Murphy and Blake Swihart are catchers, born on April 3 a year apart, who are out of options. Murphy, who is older, comes with five years of team control including two seasons at a salary near the league minimum. Swihart comes with four arbitration years of team control, including this season at a salary of $900,000. Steamer projects Murphy with 2019 wRC+ and WAR of 69 and 0.0 in 60 plate appearances and Swihart with 2019 wRC+ and WAR of 75 and 0.4 in 202 plate appearances. ZiPS projects Murphy with 2019 wERC+ and WAR of 72 and 0.2 in 349 plate appearances and Swihart with 2019 wRC+ and WAR of 62 and 0.0 in 242 plate appearances. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13499&position=C https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13176&position=C Murphy was a one-time Baseball America Top 100 prospect, peaking at No. 97 in 2016. Swihart was a three-time BA Top 100 prospect, peaking at No. 17 in 2015. Compare their defensive metrics (scroll down): https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70673/tom-murphy https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/70407/blake-swihart The Rockies and Red Sox have decisions with relatively weak catching corps comprised of players out of options. What are the relative trade values of Murphy and Swihart?

Over the past decade the Red Sox have won only two of 12 series in Seattle against one of the weaker West Coast teams (but still posted a 21-21 record in the Emerald City over that span). Last year's historic 108-win World Series champions went 6-4 (.600) on the West Coast. Anything is possible, but a winning percentage of .727 or .636 on a West Coast swing is a tough order.

The Red Sox have a relatively average travel schedule overall: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/visuals/map Chris Sale mastered the Seattle Mariners at Fenway Park last year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS201806240.shtml

The same points apply to Blake Swihart despite his lower salary and two additional years of team control. Sandy Leon has established that he is quite good at one aspect of the game while Swihart has not established a single definite strength.

A bold prediction from RotoGraphs columnist Paul Sporer: https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/2019-bold-predictions/

!!!!! Perhaps baseball should reconsider substance use that is legal on the West Coast and in Massachusetts. From Lookout Landing: https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2019/3/22/18277812/mariners-of-1b-prospect-eric-filia-100-game-suspension-for-3rd-failed-test-for-a-drug-of-abuse Red Sox pitching prospect Chase Shugart was dinged Friday as well: https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2019/03/boston-red-sox-prospect-chase-shugart-suspended-50-games-for-second-positive-drug-test.html

The Milwaukee Brewers reportedly will sign reliever Alex Wilson, who opted out of his Cleveland contract earlier this week: The Brewers, who were rumored to be in talks with Craig Kimbrel, should again have a formidable bullpen.

Speculation was that the failed physical was related to Eric Filia's suspension earlier last year. The 26-year-old Filia, who would be subject to the Rule 5 draft this December if not placed on the 40-man roster, could be a trade candidate after the Mariners significantly upgraded their farm system's outfield depth. Teenagers Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez are the prized outfield prospects but outfielders Kyle Lewis, Dom Thompson-Williams and Jake Fraley will be subject the the Rule 5 draft in December if not protected.

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2018/06/boston_red_sox_return_eric_fil.html

I have no idea whether the Mariners share my opinion on Sandy Leon. And the Mariners don't have a particularly high waiver priority.

And this forum's most prolific poster always projects high on the Red Sox. That's why this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I. One source projects the 2019 Red Sox with 94 regular-season wins: https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings Another source projects the Red Sox with 89 wins: https://doublegsports.com/pecota-projected-mlb-standings-2019/ A third source projects the Red Sox with 92 wins: https://www.rotochamp.com/baseball/ProjectedStandings.aspx A fourth source projects the Red Sox with 100.9 wins: https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/projected-2019-mlb-standings-yankees-dodgers-looking-like-favorites-as-baseball-waits-on-harper-and-machado/ A fifth source projects the Red Sox with 101 wins: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2819454-mlb-predictions-2019-projecting-the-final-standings#slide0 A sixth source projects the Red Sox with 93.7 wins: https://www.teamrankings.com/mlb/projections/standings/ The reputations of these sources vary but I suppose a Red Sox fan would be expected to be optimistic.

I like Sandy Leon as a defensive mentor to bat-first Seattle catcher Omar Narvaez, a fellow squat Venezuelan. However, I doubt the Mariners would surrender much in a trade for Leon

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/war/

Reliever Alex Wilson has opted out of his contract with the Cleveland Guardians: https://www.cleveland.com/tribe/2019/03/alex-wilson-justin-grimm-aj-cole-cut-as-cleveland-Guardians-bullpen-takes-shape.html Boston GM Dave Dombrowski once traded for then Red Sox righthander.

Steamer projects Chris Sale with 15 wins, David Price and Rick Porcello with 12 wins each, Nathan Eovaldi with 11 wins and Eduardo Rodriguez with 10 wins: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=3,d That add up to 60 wins. Marcel projects Porcello with 13 wins, Price and Sale with 12 wins each, Rodriguez with 9 wins and Eovaldi with 7 wins: https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BOS/2018-projections.shtml That adds up to 53 wins. ZiPS projects Sale with 15 wins, Price and Porcello with 13 wins each, Rodriguez with 10 wins and Eovaldi with 8 wins: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&type=zips&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=3,d That adds up to 59 wins. But I understand that this thread is An Optimistic View at 2019: Part I.

Just as a person remembers hitting the jackpot on the slot machine. That does not make playing the slot machines a good investment.

Baseball is a tiny sliver of the world economy that has been increasingly dependent on analytics over the past half century. If anything baseball may be behind the curve.

Rick Porcello posted ERA+ of 87 in 2015, 142 in 2016, 98 in 2017, 102 in 2018 and 106 overall in four seasons with the Red Sox: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml

Jenrry Mejia, my choice for closer, is having a rough Spring Training outing against the Baltimore Orioles: MLB Gameday: Red Sox 6, Orioles 4 Final Score (03/20/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Red Sox vs. Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium

Despite an 80-game suspension last year, Robinson Cano has posted 20.8 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, in the first five seasons of his 10-year, $240 contract with Seattle. David Price, who is three years younger than Cano but with more health concerns, has posted 8.2 fWAR, valued at $65.8 million, in the first three seasons of his seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox. The Mariners needed to attach significant surplus value in Edwin Diaz to move Cano in the trade* to the Mets. The Red Sox would probably need to attach a player with even more surplus value to move Price. * in the Cano trade the Mariners also received decent prospects in Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista but took on the reputedly underwater contracts of Anthony Swarzak and Jay Bruce (Bruce has shown signs over returning to his 36-homer, 101-RBI performance of 2017)

notin nails it again.