harmony

Just as a person remembers hitting the jackpot on the slot machine. That does not make playing the slot machines a good investment.

Baseball is a tiny sliver of the world economy that has been increasingly dependent on analytics over the past half century. If anything baseball may be behind the curve.

Rick Porcello posted ERA+ of 87 in 2015, 142 in 2016, 98 in 2017, 102 in 2018 and 106 overall in four seasons with the Red Sox: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/porceri01.shtml

Jenrry Mejia, my choice for closer, is having a rough Spring Training outing against the Baltimore Orioles: MLB Gameday: Red Sox 6, Orioles 4 Final Score (03/20/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Red Sox vs. Orioles at Ed Smith Stadium

Despite an 80-game suspension last year, Robinson Cano has posted 20.8 fWAR, valued at $163.7 million, in the first five seasons of his 10-year, $240 contract with Seattle. David Price, who is three years younger than Cano but with more health concerns, has posted 8.2 fWAR, valued at $65.8 million, in the first three seasons of his seven-year, $217 million contract with the Red Sox. The Mariners needed to attach significant surplus value in Edwin Diaz to move Cano in the trade* to the Mets. The Red Sox would probably need to attach a player with even more surplus value to move Price. * in the Cano trade the Mariners also received decent prospects in Jarred Kelenic, Justin Dunn and Gerson Bautista but took on the reputedly underwater contracts of Anthony Swarzak and Jay Bruce (Bruce has shown signs over returning to his 36-homer, 101-RBI performance of 2017)

notin nails it again.

In their season opener the Red Sox will face Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales, who today surrendered four runs, three earned, on seven hits over six innings in the Mariners' 9-7 win over the Oakland Athletics to open the MLB regular season in Tokyo: MLB Gameday: Mariners 9, Athletics 7 Final Score (03/20/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Athletics at Tokyo Dome This biased fan still finds Gonzales to be underrated.

If I'm not mistaken, I witnessed the final game of each of the last two sweeps in the Red Sox/Mariner series in Seattle. In 2007 the Mariners swept the World Series champion Red Sox with a walk-off win in the 11th inning: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA200706270.shtml In 2010 the Red Sox swept the Mariners behind the pitching of Clay Buchholz and a home run from Adrian Beltre (whom I saw hit a grand slam against the Guardians the previous month at Fenway Park): https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201009150.shtml

It's possible. The Red Sox have won only two of the last 12 series in Seattle up against undistinguished Mariner clubs. So, sure, it's possible the Red Sox could win three of four.

So would the Mariners.

In about 36 hours the Mariners and the Athletics open the regular season in Tokyo. One friend grew up in Boston, one in Wichita and one in Kalamazoo. This Mariner fan is the lone one who abandoned the favorite team (the Twins) of his childhood.

Sandy Leon is older than David Freitas, who celebrated his 30th birthday today with a game-winning home run in Tokyo. Leon turned 30 years old five days ago.

Six in Seattle since 2009.

I've become almost obsessed with fellow Venezuelan Sandy Leon as a defensive mentor for bat-first Seattle catcher Omar Narvaez (although the Mariners have a decent backup catcher in David Freitas, who homered today in Tokyo). MLB Gameday: Mariners 6, Giants 5 Final Score (03/18/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Giants at Tokyo Dome

Seattle instead will give the Opening Day start to lefthander Marco Gonzales, the former first-round draft pick who last year posted 3.6 fWAR, just ahead of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. I regret to report that Felix Hernandez probably has an attitude problem. Even with his utter lack of effectiveness, Hernandez was likely to be the Opening Day starter if he had a better attitude (shoot, Ichiro will get the Opening Day start in Toyko on Wednesday). If Hernandez remains ineffective through May, Erik Swanson, Tommy Milone or Justus Sheffield will likely replace him in the starting rotation. With the Mariners "stepping back" this season in the final year of the Hernandez contract, it's a sad end to his stellar 15-year career that lacked a postseason appearance. Today Hernandez surrendered five runs, four earned, on four hits, over four innings, issuing three walks and striking out none, in Seattle's 6-5 win over the Yomiuri Giants in Tokyo: MLB Gameday: Mariners 6, Giants 5 Final Score (03/18/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Giants at Tokyo Dome In a matchup of natives of Valencia, Venezuela, Hernandez and Eduardo Rodriguez are the probable starters for the March 31 game I will attend.

The Red Sox have not swept a series in Seattle since 2010 (and have never swept a four-game series in Seattle). Over the past decade of Mariner mediocrity, the Red Sox have won two series in Seattle while the Mariners have won five series. The clubs have split the other five series. Thank you for the kind words.

Three friends are joining me for Game 4 in Seattle on the afternoon of Sunday, March 31 (one Mariners fan, one Red Sox fan, one Royals fan and one Tigers fan).

Exactly. Although I usually provide only statistics and let the reader draw conclusions (or not), when I offer an opinion it is almost always in the cautious terms of "likely" or "probably" or "perhaps" or such. Including whether J.D. Martinez would sign with a club other than the Red Sox.

This issue had been simmering for a few weeks since moonslav contended that a full year of Nathan Eovaldi should be an upgrade over Drew Pomeranz. Moonslav could be right ... or not.

Although I frequently counter the natural bias on this forum, I've consistently promoted Mookie Betts since he was posting outlier BB/K ratio in the minors. But now that you've raised the topic: Betts probably will repeat as an American League All Star but is likely to regress from the outstanding 10.4 fWAR posted last year. I am disappointed if anyone was "tortured" by my speculation that another club might sign J.D. Martinez. His signing worked out for the Red Sox.

I defended Sandy Leon last week: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart?p=1224711#post1224711 Over the past three years I've typically held a higher opinion of Jackie Bradley Jr. than many posters to this forum. I currently view Ryan Brasier and Jenrry Mejia as underrated. I generally find prospects overvalued with the proliferation of prospect lists over the past two decades. My opinion may be jaded by the inability of the Seattle Mariners to develop touted prospects. Mookie Betts caught my attention in 2014 with his stellar 61/50 BB/K split in the minors (the year before Devers had a concerning 24/84 BB/K split in the low minors). Thank you for the respectful question.

This season the Red Sox are counting on Nathan Eovaldi the way the Sox were counting on Drew Pomeranz a year ago. A year ago Pomeranz was a 29-year-old Red Sox lefthander coming off a season with these numbers: 32 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 ERA+ Today Eovaldi is a 29-year-old Red Sox righthander coming off a season with these numbers: 22 G, 21 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 ERA+ ... including these numbers with the Red Sox: 12 G, 11 GS, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 132 ERA+ For what it's worth.

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections. Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles. Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons: PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season. Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts. Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts. Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?