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harmony

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Everything posted by harmony

  1. How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season? Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers: PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.
  2. Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR? Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011. Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017. Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date. Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under? Let me take cover before you fire off responses.
  3. Some compliments go unappreciated.
  4. Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget. However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.
  5. Anything is possible but the Red Sox have not swept the Mariners in Seattle since 2010 (and have never swept a four-game series in Seattle). Over the the past decade the high-flying (and low-flying) Red Sox have left Seattle with a series win only twice. But, again, anything is possible.
  6. Does that include the potential 1-3 regular-season record in March? Opening the regular season with an 11-game West Coast trip, the Red Sox will be hard-pressed to finish April at .600.
  7. On the topic of comps to a Yankee third baseman, RotoGraphs columnist Brad Johnson offers this: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15447&position=1B/3B
  8. I agree but I was responding to the contention that Blake Swihart has "Offensive potential far and above the other two."
  9. Steamer projects 2019 wRC+ of 79 for Christian Vazquez, 75 for Blake Swihart and 68 for Sandy Leon: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d ZiPS projects 2019 OPS and wOBA of .655 and .286 for Vazquez, .614 and .269 for Swihart and .604 and .269 for Leon: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d Marcel projects 2019 OPS of .648 for Vazquez, .681 for Swihart and .657 for Leon: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonsa01.shtml
  10. The Washington Nationals are expected to sign lefty reliever Tony Sipp to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $250,000 buyout of a 2020 mutual option for $2.5 million: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/nationals-to-sign-tony-sipp.html
  11. Greg Bird has three options remaining and Luke Voit two. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-new-york-yankees/
  12. Folks already have in the comments below Dan Szymborski's post: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/
  13. More knowledgeable baseball followers rate Sandy Leon as a better-than-average defensive catcher: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp
  14. The more pressing issue is whether the Baltimore Orioles would trade Mychal Givens for Bryan Mata.
  15. From FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's list of speculative trades: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/
  16. Why would the Mariners trade a prospect of value for two underwater contracts and one of baseball's most disappointing prospects? Seattle would be taking a $7.5 million longshot gamble that Jay Groome will amount to anything. Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon would be nothing more than short-term fillers. The Mariners could just as easily sign free agent third baseman Chase Headley until Kyle Seager returns. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 0.6 for Leon and 1.5 for Seattle's current backup catcher, David Freitas. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0 https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0
  17. Perhaps but the Red Sox could always sweeten the deal. This year Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon are owed a combined $7.5 million coming off a season in which the pair combined for a negative 1.3 fWAR, valued at a negative $10.3 million. Regression should help close that $17.8 million gap but their contracts remain underwater. Makeup concerns surround Jay Groome, who turns 21 this year coming off Tommy John surgery after posting an ERA of 5.37 in 17 minor league starts, none above the Class A level. That's quite a package.
  18. Seattle could target assets such as Jay Groome to contend beyond 2019 and therefore could be willing to assume underwater short-term liabilities such as Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon. The Mariners have already slashed more than $25 million from their payroll and could easily take on the $7.5 million owed Nunez and Leon without depleting a thin bullpen by trading Anthony Swarzak. Sandy Leon (5-10, 225) could be a decent defensive mentor to fellow squat Venezuelan Omar Narvaez (5-11, 220).
  19. I suspect the Seattle Mariners, who do not expect to contend this year, would need a long-term asset to offset the underwater $7.5 million in obligations to Sandy Leon and Eduardo Nunez, who hope to rebound from last year's fWAR of a negative 0.9 and a negative 0.4, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=2_30 Nunez is somewhat redundant to Brock Holt, the likely backup to Dustin Pedroia. One issue is whether a trade of Jay Groome alone would net a better asset (at a better price) than what the Red Sox could acquire with an additional $7.5 million in payroll.
  20. Cesar Izturis Jr. has minimal trade value ... far, far less than the disreputable Jay Groome. The proposed trade is a salary dump that would merely give the Red Sox payroll space to fill more pressing needs, such as the bullpen, while shedding its third catcher with no options remaining.
  21. Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager will undergo surgery on a tendon in his left hand: Kyle Seager has surgery, to miss April WWW.MLB.COM PEORIA, Ariz. -- Kyle Seager has been the most durable third baseman in the Majors for the past seven years, but that iron-man status hit a bump on Monday as the Mariners announced the 31-year-old was to have surgery to repair a tendon in his left hand on Tuesday and The Mariners could hope to trade the expiring contract of Eduardo Nunez upon Seager's return (as the Giants did with the Red Sox in 2017). Seattle reportedly is in a the market for a defensively adept catcher to complement bat-first Omar Narvaez. https://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/mariners-still-looking-to-add-another-right-handed-hitting-catcher/ Jay Groome has a cavernous gap between his potential ceiling and his potential floor. http://soxprospects.com/players/groome-jay.htm The Mariners, who do not expect to contend this year, have a projected Opening Day payroll of $143.6 million, down from about $171 million last year:
  22. For what it's worth, the New York Yankees have won 11 World Series titles in my lifetime. To my chagrin.
  23. The Red Sox could clear about $7.5 million in payroll space by trading Eduardo Nunez, Sandy Leon and Jay Groome to Seattle for 19-year-old shortstop Cesar Izturis Jr.: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=izturi002ces In other words, a salary dump.
  24. The Red Sox may face a defensively porous team in their season-opening series at Seattle if the Mariners have center fielder Mallex Smith and third baseman Kyle Seager on the disabled list. Instead of having Smith patrolling the expansive center field, the Mariners would likely go with a defensively suspect outfield of RF Jay Bruce, CF Mitch Haniger and LF Domingo Santana. The Mariners could relieve the logjam at 1B/DH by moving Ryon Healy to third base, where Healy has a UZR/150 of a negative 13.9 with a negative 4 Defensive Runs Saved in 900.2 innings. As a point of reference, Rafael Devers has a UZR/150 of a negative 7.2 with a negative 14 Defensive Runs Saved in 1,524.1 innings at third base.
  25. Over the Monster columnist Matt Collins weighs in on Blake Swihart: https://www.overthemonster.com/2019/3/11/18259636/red-sox-catchers-blake-swihart-playing-time-sandy-leon-christian-vazquez
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