harmony

In their season opener the Red Sox will face Seattle lefthander Marco Gonzales, who today surrendered four runs, three earned, on seven hits over six innings in the Mariners' 9-7 win over the Oakland Athletics to open the MLB regular season in Tokyo: MLB Gameday: Mariners 9, Athletics 7 Final Score (03/20/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Athletics at Tokyo Dome This biased fan still finds Gonzales to be underrated.

If I'm not mistaken, I witnessed the final game of each of the last two sweeps in the Red Sox/Mariner series in Seattle. In 2007 the Mariners swept the World Series champion Red Sox with a walk-off win in the 11th inning: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA200706270.shtml In 2010 the Red Sox swept the Mariners behind the pitching of Clay Buchholz and a home run from Adrian Beltre (whom I saw hit a grand slam against the Guardians the previous month at Fenway Park): https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/SEA/SEA201009150.shtml

It's possible. The Red Sox have won only two of the last 12 series in Seattle up against undistinguished Mariner clubs. So, sure, it's possible the Red Sox could win three of four.

So would the Mariners.

In about 36 hours the Mariners and the Athletics open the regular season in Tokyo. One friend grew up in Boston, one in Wichita and one in Kalamazoo. This Mariner fan is the lone one who abandoned the favorite team (the Twins) of his childhood.

Sandy Leon is older than David Freitas, who celebrated his 30th birthday today with a game-winning home run in Tokyo. Leon turned 30 years old five days ago.

Six in Seattle since 2009.

I've become almost obsessed with fellow Venezuelan Sandy Leon as a defensive mentor for bat-first Seattle catcher Omar Narvaez (although the Mariners have a decent backup catcher in David Freitas, who homered today in Tokyo). MLB Gameday: Mariners 6, Giants 5 Final Score (03/18/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Giants at Tokyo Dome

Seattle instead will give the Opening Day start to lefthander Marco Gonzales, the former first-round draft pick who last year posted 3.6 fWAR, just ahead of Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. I regret to report that Felix Hernandez probably has an attitude problem. Even with his utter lack of effectiveness, Hernandez was likely to be the Opening Day starter if he had a better attitude (shoot, Ichiro will get the Opening Day start in Toyko on Wednesday). If Hernandez remains ineffective through May, Erik Swanson, Tommy Milone or Justus Sheffield will likely replace him in the starting rotation. With the Mariners "stepping back" this season in the final year of the Hernandez contract, it's a sad end to his stellar 15-year career that lacked a postseason appearance. Today Hernandez surrendered five runs, four earned, on four hits, over four innings, issuing three walks and striking out none, in Seattle's 6-5 win over the Yomiuri Giants in Tokyo: MLB Gameday: Mariners 6, Giants 5 Final Score (03/18/2019) | MLB.com WWW.MLB.COM Follow MLB results with FREE box scores, pitch-by-pitch strikezone info, and Statcast data for Mariners vs. Giants at Tokyo Dome In a matchup of natives of Valencia, Venezuela, Hernandez and Eduardo Rodriguez are the probable starters for the March 31 game I will attend.

The Red Sox have not swept a series in Seattle since 2010 (and have never swept a four-game series in Seattle). Over the past decade of Mariner mediocrity, the Red Sox have won two series in Seattle while the Mariners have won five series. The clubs have split the other five series. Thank you for the kind words.

Three friends are joining me for Game 4 in Seattle on the afternoon of Sunday, March 31 (one Mariners fan, one Red Sox fan, one Royals fan and one Tigers fan).

Exactly. Although I usually provide only statistics and let the reader draw conclusions (or not), when I offer an opinion it is almost always in the cautious terms of "likely" or "probably" or "perhaps" or such. Including whether J.D. Martinez would sign with a club other than the Red Sox.

This issue had been simmering for a few weeks since moonslav contended that a full year of Nathan Eovaldi should be an upgrade over Drew Pomeranz. Moonslav could be right ... or not.

Although I frequently counter the natural bias on this forum, I've consistently promoted Mookie Betts since he was posting outlier BB/K ratio in the minors. But now that you've raised the topic: Betts probably will repeat as an American League All Star but is likely to regress from the outstanding 10.4 fWAR posted last year. I am disappointed if anyone was "tortured" by my speculation that another club might sign J.D. Martinez. His signing worked out for the Red Sox.

I defended Sandy Leon last week: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart?p=1224711#post1224711 Over the past three years I've typically held a higher opinion of Jackie Bradley Jr. than many posters to this forum. I currently view Ryan Brasier and Jenrry Mejia as underrated. I generally find prospects overvalued with the proliferation of prospect lists over the past two decades. My opinion may be jaded by the inability of the Seattle Mariners to develop touted prospects. Mookie Betts caught my attention in 2014 with his stellar 61/50 BB/K split in the minors (the year before Devers had a concerning 24/84 BB/K split in the low minors). Thank you for the respectful question.

This season the Red Sox are counting on Nathan Eovaldi the way the Sox were counting on Drew Pomeranz a year ago. A year ago Pomeranz was a 29-year-old Red Sox lefthander coming off a season with these numbers: 32 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 ERA+ Today Eovaldi is a 29-year-old Red Sox righthander coming off a season with these numbers: 22 G, 21 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 ERA+ ... including these numbers with the Red Sox: 12 G, 11 GS, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 132 ERA+ For what it's worth.

Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections. Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles. Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons: PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season. Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts. Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.

To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts. Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?

How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season? Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers: PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.

Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR? Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011. Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017. Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date. Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under? Let me take cover before you fire off responses.

Some compliments go unappreciated.

Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget. However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.

Anything is possible but the Red Sox have not swept the Mariners in Seattle since 2010 (and have never swept a four-game series in Seattle). Over the the past decade the high-flying (and low-flying) Red Sox have left Seattle with a series win only twice. But, again, anything is possible.

Does that include the potential 1-3 regular-season record in March? Opening the regular season with an 11-game West Coast trip, the Red Sox will be hard-pressed to finish April at .600.

On the topic of comps to a Yankee third baseman, RotoGraphs columnist Brad Johnson offers this: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15447&position=1B/3B