harmony
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Everything posted by harmony
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This issue had been simmering for a few weeks since moonslav contended that a full year of Nathan Eovaldi should be an upgrade over Drew Pomeranz. Moonslav could be right ... or not.
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Although I frequently counter the natural bias on this forum, I've consistently promoted Mookie Betts since he was posting outlier BB/K ratio in the minors. But now that you've raised the topic: Betts probably will repeat as an American League All Star but is likely to regress from the outstanding 10.4 fWAR posted last year. I am disappointed if anyone was "tortured" by my speculation that another club might sign J.D. Martinez. His signing worked out for the Red Sox.
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I defended Sandy Leon last week: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/19135-Blake-Swihart?p=1224711#post1224711 Over the past three years I've typically held a higher opinion of Jackie Bradley Jr. than many posters to this forum. I currently view Ryan Brasier and Jenrry Mejia as underrated. I generally find prospects overvalued with the proliferation of prospect lists over the past two decades. My opinion may be jaded by the inability of the Seattle Mariners to develop touted prospects. Mookie Betts caught my attention in 2014 with his stellar 61/50 BB/K split in the minors (the year before Devers had a concerning 24/84 BB/K split in the low minors). Thank you for the respectful question.
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This season the Red Sox are counting on Nathan Eovaldi the way the Sox were counting on Drew Pomeranz a year ago. A year ago Pomeranz was a 29-year-old Red Sox lefthander coming off a season with these numbers: 32 GS, 173.2 IP, 3.32 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 137 ERA+ Today Eovaldi is a 29-year-old Red Sox righthander coming off a season with these numbers: 22 G, 21 GS, 111 IP, 3.81 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 112 ERA+ ... including these numbers with the Red Sox: 12 G, 11 GS, 54 IP, 3.33 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 132 ERA+ For what it's worth.
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Perhaps those are the optimistic mid-range projections. Rafael Devers' trajectory may contrast with that of Pablo Sandoval, who nonetheless made two All Star appearances and helped the San Francisco Giants to three World Series titles. Sandoval was a young phenomenon who never cratered until joining the Red Sox. Compare the early careers of Sandoval and Mookie Betts. Sandoval, who debuted with 41 games in his age 21 season, and Betts, who debuted with 52 games in his age 21 season, posted these lines over their first two seasons: PS 194 G, 787 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR MB 197 G, 867 PA, .291/.348/.471/.818, OPS+ 119, 8.1 bWAR Sandoval finished seventh in the National League MVP voting his second season while Betts finished 19th in the American League MVP voting his second season. Neither Devers nor Sandoval has the defensive prowess of Mookie Betts. Devers' floor is unlikely to be a player who outhit Betts at similar ages.
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To be precise, Rafael Devers was 486 days (about 16 months) younger than Pablo Sandoval was at their respective MLB debuts. Given their starkly contrasting numbers in their first two MLB seasons, how can Pablo Sandoval be the floor for Rafael Devers?
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How about a comp with third baseman Pablo Sandoval, who in 2008 made his 41-game MLB debut in his age 21 season? Through their first two MLB seasons Sandoval and Rafael Devers posted these numbers: PS 194 G, 633 PA, .333/.381/.543/.924, OPS+ 139, 5.4 bWAR, 6.1 fWAR RD 179 G, 730 PA, .254/.311/.449/.760, OPS+ 100, 1.3 bWAR, 1.7 fWAR Those first two seasons Sandoval played 132 games at third base, 43 at first base and 14 at catcher. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=5409&position=3B#fielding A wide range of outcomes is possible for a 22-year-old who is difficult to project. Rafael Devers could become a perennial All Star or fall short of that status.
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Is Seattle third baseman Kyle Seager a decent comp for overall career WAR? Seager, who is nine years older than Rafael Devers, has posted 27.9 bWAR and 27.8 fWAR in eight MLB seasons starting with his 53-game debut in as a 23-year-old in 2011. Devers has posted 1.3 bWAR and 1.7 fWAR in two MLB seasons starting with his 58-game debut as a 20-year-old in 2017. Seager has posted more annual value on defense than Devers has to date. Can Devers average nearly 3 WAR per season over the next nine years to catch up with Seager at a similar age? Who takes the over and who takes the under? Let me take cover before you fire off responses.
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Some compliments go unappreciated.
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Moments ago I was surprised that a fellow fantasy baseball owner dropped the long-term contract of Rafael Devers, incurring a $5 penalty, instead of retaining Devers at $10 in a 10-team, 27-roster mixed roto league with a $305 budget. However, I hope Devers contributes for the Red Sox.
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Anything is possible but the Red Sox have not swept the Mariners in Seattle since 2010 (and have never swept a four-game series in Seattle). Over the the past decade the high-flying (and low-flying) Red Sox have left Seattle with a series win only twice. But, again, anything is possible.
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Does that include the potential 1-3 regular-season record in March? Opening the regular season with an 11-game West Coast trip, the Red Sox will be hard-pressed to finish April at .600.
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On the topic of comps to a Yankee third baseman, RotoGraphs columnist Brad Johnson offers this: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=15447&position=1B/3B
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I agree but I was responding to the contention that Blake Swihart has "Offensive potential far and above the other two."
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Steamer projects 2019 wRC+ of 79 for Christian Vazquez, 75 for Blake Swihart and 68 for Sandy Leon: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d ZiPS projects 2019 OPS and wOBA of .655 and .286 for Vazquez, .614 and .269 for Swihart and .604 and .269 for Leon: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=3&lg=all&players=0&sort=22,d Marcel projects 2019 OPS of .648 for Vazquez, .681 for Swihart and .657 for Leon: https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vazquch01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonsa01.shtml
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The Washington Nationals are expected to sign lefty reliever Tony Sipp to a one-year, $1.25 million contract with a $250,000 buyout of a 2020 mutual option for $2.5 million: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/03/nationals-to-sign-tony-sipp.html
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Greg Bird has three options remaining and Luke Voit two. https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-new-york-yankees/
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Folks already have in the comments below Dan Szymborski's post: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/
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More knowledgeable baseball followers rate Sandy Leon as a better-than-average defensive catcher: http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-votetally.asp http://www.fieldingbible.com/complete-voteTally2017.asp
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The more pressing issue is whether the Baltimore Orioles would trade Mychal Givens for Bryan Mata.
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From FanGraphs columnist Dan Szymborski's list of speculative trades: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/seven-hopefully-not-terrible-spring-trade-ideas/
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Why would the Mariners trade a prospect of value for two underwater contracts and one of baseball's most disappointing prospects? Seattle would be taking a $7.5 million longshot gamble that Jay Groome will amount to anything. Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon would be nothing more than short-term fillers. The Mariners could just as easily sign free agent third baseman Chase Headley until Kyle Seager returns. Steamer600, which assumes 450 plate appearances for each catcher, projects 2019 WAR of 0.6 for Leon and 1.5 for Seattle's current backup catcher, David Freitas. https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=11&lg=all&players=0 https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=c&stats=bat&type=steamer600&team=3&lg=all&players=0
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Perhaps but the Red Sox could always sweeten the deal. This year Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon are owed a combined $7.5 million coming off a season in which the pair combined for a negative 1.3 fWAR, valued at a negative $10.3 million. Regression should help close that $17.8 million gap but their contracts remain underwater. Makeup concerns surround Jay Groome, who turns 21 this year coming off Tommy John surgery after posting an ERA of 5.37 in 17 minor league starts, none above the Class A level. That's quite a package.
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Seattle could target assets such as Jay Groome to contend beyond 2019 and therefore could be willing to assume underwater short-term liabilities such as Eduardo Nunez and Sandy Leon. The Mariners have already slashed more than $25 million from their payroll and could easily take on the $7.5 million owed Nunez and Leon without depleting a thin bullpen by trading Anthony Swarzak. Sandy Leon (5-10, 225) could be a decent defensive mentor to fellow squat Venezuelan Omar Narvaez (5-11, 220).
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I suspect the Seattle Mariners, who do not expect to contend this year, would need a long-term asset to offset the underwater $7.5 million in obligations to Sandy Leon and Eduardo Nunez, who hope to rebound from last year's fWAR of a negative 0.9 and a negative 0.4, respectively: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2018&month=0&season1=2018&ind=0&team=3&rost=&age=&filter=&players=&page=2_30 Nunez is somewhat redundant to Brock Holt, the likely backup to Dustin Pedroia. One issue is whether a trade of Jay Groome alone would net a better asset (at a better price) than what the Red Sox could acquire with an additional $7.5 million in payroll.