harmony

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier re-examines the trade market for Red Sox starters: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/11/examining-trade-market-for-red-sox-starting-pitchers/HOdP2OcDe36sCg32acOAZK/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

Nick Madrigal is penciled in as the second baseman on my defending champion team in a limited keeper fantasy league. Madrigal and Dustin Pedroia have parallels: short, righthanded second basemen, California birthplaces 20 miles apart and high schools separated by 35 miles, college standouts in the Pac 12 Conference, (likely) rapid advances through the minors with more walks than strikeouts. Baseball Trade Values assigns a surplus value of $38.4 million to Madrigal, who is the 40th-ranked prospect at MLB Prospect Watch: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/467/ http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

The infusion of the Seattle Mariners into a David Price thread seems odd, but if you insist ... A wide range of outcomes is possible for David Price as the lefthander enters the final three seasons of his seven-year, $217 million contract. Price could experience anything from a Justin Verlander renaissance to the precipitous decline of Felix Hernandez. Here are the career stats of Verlander, Hernandez and Price at the point when each had three seasons remaining on his most recent seven-year contract: JV 352 G, 352 GS, 2339 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 57.4 bWAR FH 359 G, 359 GS, 2415.2 IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 51.4 bWAR DP 321 G, 311 GS, 2029.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 40.0 bWAR And the stats for Verlander and Hernandez in the final three seasons of their respective seven-year contracts: JV (2017-19) 101 G, 101 GS, 643 IP, 2.81 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 156 ERA+, 20.4 bWAR FH (2017-19) 60 G, 59 GS, 314 IP, 5.42 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 77 ERA+, -1.2 bWAR Again, a wide range of outcomes is possible for David Price, who is older than Hernandez but younger than Verlander (although slightly older than Verlander was with three years left on his contract).

One person could cherry-pick 2018 while others could cherry-pick the 81.1 innings in 2017 (postseason included) or the 107.1 innings in 2019. The three-year average should be the fairer approach. Or not.

FWIW, David Price is a 34-year-old lefthander who has averaged only 120 innings a season over the past three years.

New York Post columnist Joel Sherman addresses the Red Sox "mess": https://nypost.com/2019/12/11/gerrit-cole-dominoes-are-falling-red-sox-mess-dodgers-lindor-pursuit/

FWIW, Steamer projects Chris Archer with a 2020 WAR of 3.0 in 180 innings while projecting David Price with a 2020 WAR of 2.6 in 164 innings: https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-archer/6345/stats?position=P https://www.fangraphs.com/players/david-price/3184/stats?position=P

In four seasons with the Red Sox, David Price has posted 10.6 fWAR, valued at $85 million, while being paid $121 million. The contract for a 34-year-old coming off an injury-shortened season is likely to sink deeper under water. Or not.

Although the cost of David Price's replacement has gone up as well.

The Red Sox have made no progress in their trade discussions involving David Price, according to this tweet from Ken Rosenthal:

For luxury tax purposes, a trade of David Price for Wil Myers saves the Red Sox $17+ million annually for three years while the Padres would add $9.5 million annually in real dollars.

Cincinnati Reds fans discuss trade for David Price: http://www.redszone.com/forums/showthread.php?119368-How-about-David-Price

The market for starting pitchers continues to develop as the San Francisco Giants signed righthander Kevin Gausman to a one-year, $9 million contract with up to $1 million in performance bonuses: If the Red Sox trade Nathan Eovaldi, David Price or Chris Sale, the replacement might not come cheaply.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/11/nathan-eovaldi-drawing-widespread-interest.html

But a likely downgrade from an 84-win team.

Steamer projects 2020 WAR of 0.5 in 165 innings for Julio Teheran, 1.6 in 174 innings for Tanner Roark and 1.9 in 182 innings for Rick Porcello: https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=2717&position=P MLB Trade Rumors projects two-year, $18 million contracts for Teheran and Roark while projecting a one-year, $11 million contract for Porcello: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html Pick your poison.

Paul Quantrill's Canadian son, Cal Quantrill, underwent Tommy John surgery while in college at Stanford. BTW, the Milwaukee Brewers have signed your favorite Keon Broxton to a minor league contract:

The Red Sox could pay less for a lesser starter. The Red Sox will get what they pay for ... or not.

The Braves would be unlikely to trade quality for quantity.

That 76-85 Seattle team in 1998 featured three Hall of Famers in Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez and Randy Johnson (plus Alex Rodriguez with Hall of Fame numbers). Here is your box score: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/BOS/BOS199809020.shtml

Nathan Eovaldi is a nearly 30-year-old righthander with a career ERA+ of 94.

indeed .. the framework is there.

Baseball Trade Values gives the proposed trade a "Moderate Overpay" assessment with the Red Sox coming out slightly ahead and the Marlins slightly behind: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/

To be precise, the acquiring team pays the other team $100,000: Top prospects in the 2019 Rule 5 Draft WWW.MLB.COM On Wednesday, teams had to decide which of their prospects merited placement on 40-man rosters. Unprotected prospects are subject to the Rule 5 Draft at the Winter Meetings if they signed by age 18 and have completed five pro seasons, or if they signed at age 19 or older and

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/12/red-sox-sign-marco-hernandez.html