harmony

Roster Resource offers its budget numbers as well: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/red-sox

Pitchers tend to experience declining production under seven-year contracts, especially when the contract is signed after the pitcher's 30th birthday. In his four seasons with the Red Sox, David Price has posted 10.6 fWAR, valued at $85 million, while being paid $121 million. Over the most recent three seasons Price has posted 6.2 fWAR, valued at $49.8 million. As a point of reference, Rick Porcello, who is three years younger, recently signed a one-year, $10 million contract after posting the same 6.2 fWAR, valued at $49.8 million, over the past three seasons. https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=y&type=6&season=2019&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=3&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=&enddate=

So should the Red Sox endure the up to $100 million in consequences for failing to get under the luxury tax threshold for the third straight year? https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/10/here-what-red-sox-would-face-they-don-get-under-luxury-tax-threshold-this-year/PCjGCkeVgdj23kGMUN4aaL/story.html

As the article reports, that deadline day Seattle fans were more upset about the trade of Jose Cruz for relievers than the trade of the floundering Jason Varitek and Derek Lowe.

Especially if David Price is the pitcher suffering the injury.

The Red Sox could waive Wil Myers and still save $17+ million annually over three years for luxury tax purposes. It would not be a trade to improve the Red Sox on the field; it would be a trade to help avoid the up to $100 million in consequences for failing to get under the luxury tax threshold: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/10/here-what-red-sox-would-face-they-don-get-under-luxury-tax-threshold-this-year/PCjGCkeVgdj23kGMUN4aaL/story.html

Trivia: Of the deadline trades between the Boston Red Sox and Seattle Mariners in 1996-97, what player produced the most WAR for his new team? Some trades work out better than others.

They're moving targets. The numbers will change after the Red Sox sign Ryon Healy. Or not.

The ongoing tally from Cot's: ... and from Spotrac: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

Thanks. $18,216,667 over, to be precise. And the competing Spotrac numbers at $28,453,333: https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/payroll/

The specific Cot's numbers would be welcome as well.

The offered numbers are welcome here.

Gotta believe that at least one of Mookie Betts, David Price or J.D. Martinez will be traded. If they planned to exceed the luxury tax threshold the Red Sox would not be messing with the small contracts of Jose Peraza and Martin Perez. Or not.

The Red Sox reportedly have signed lefthander Martin Perez to a one-year, $6 million contract with a $6.25 million option for a second year: https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=perez-011mar Will the Sox make a move to get under the luxury tax threshold?

Perhaps because this year Jose Peraza posted a negative 0.6 fWAR in 141 games? https://www.fangraphs.com/players/jose-peraza/13593/stats?position=2B/SS

And the San Diego Padres don't want David Price, certainly not with a $96 million price tag. According to Baseball Trade Values, a trade of David Price and Jackie Bradley Jr. to San Diego for Wil Myers and Manual Margot would be a moderate overpay for the Padres: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/ ... but would apparently get the Red Sox under the luxury tax threshold, avoiding up to $100 million in long-range consequences: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/10/here-what-red-sox-would-face-they-don-get-under-luxury-tax-threshold-this-year/PCjGCkeVgdj23kGMUN4aaL/story.html

A trade of David Price for Wil Myers makes too much sense with the annual $17+ million AAV savings for luxury tax purposes. Myers may not be an attractive return but his AAV provides a heightened benefit to the Sox. Perhaps the San Diego Padres would balk at the deal. Or not.

Thanks.

Sources? https://www.google.com/search?q=price+benintendi&rlz=1C1GCEA_enUS816US816&sxsrf=ACYBGNSr8g2_1dlZI5WMSLRo9jRvvGT9sQ:1576186831333&source=lnms&tbm=nws&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjPobnBibHmAhWOVs0KHY2xB1gQ_AUoAXoECAsQAw&biw=1366&bih=625

According to Baseball Trade Values, David Price has a negative value of $60 million and Andrew Benintendi a surplus value of $35.9 million: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/604/

Boston Globe columnist Alex Speier re-examines the trade market for Red Sox starters: https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2019/12/11/examining-trade-market-for-red-sox-starting-pitchers/HOdP2OcDe36sCg32acOAZK/story.html?et_rid=1739401789&s_campaign=108stitches:newsletter

Nick Madrigal is penciled in as the second baseman on my defending champion team in a limited keeper fantasy league. Madrigal and Dustin Pedroia have parallels: short, righthanded second basemen, California birthplaces 20 miles apart and high schools separated by 35 miles, college standouts in the Pac 12 Conference, (likely) rapid advances through the minors with more walks than strikeouts. Baseball Trade Values assigns a surplus value of $38.4 million to Madrigal, who is the 40th-ranked prospect at MLB Prospect Watch: https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/teams/467/ http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2019?list=prospects

The infusion of the Seattle Mariners into a David Price thread seems odd, but if you insist ... A wide range of outcomes is possible for David Price as the lefthander enters the final three seasons of his seven-year, $217 million contract. Price could experience anything from a Justin Verlander renaissance to the precipitous decline of Felix Hernandez. Here are the career stats of Verlander, Hernandez and Price at the point when each had three seasons remaining on his most recent seven-year contract: JV 352 G, 352 GS, 2339 IP, 3.47 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 57.4 bWAR FH 359 G, 359 GS, 2415.2 IP, 3.16 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 126 ERA+, 51.4 bWAR DP 321 G, 311 GS, 2029.2 IP, 3.31 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 123 ERA+, 40.0 bWAR And the stats for Verlander and Hernandez in the final three seasons of their respective seven-year contracts: JV (2017-19) 101 G, 101 GS, 643 IP, 2.81 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 156 ERA+, 20.4 bWAR FH (2017-19) 60 G, 59 GS, 314 IP, 5.42 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 77 ERA+, -1.2 bWAR Again, a wide range of outcomes is possible for David Price, who is older than Hernandez but younger than Verlander (although slightly older than Verlander was with three years left on his contract).

One person could cherry-pick 2018 while others could cherry-pick the 81.1 innings in 2017 (postseason included) or the 107.1 innings in 2019. The three-year average should be the fairer approach. Or not.

FWIW, David Price is a 34-year-old lefthander who has averaged only 120 innings a season over the past three years.