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S5Dewey

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Everything posted by S5Dewey

  1. S5Dewey
    Of course. Of course you can also substitute any position on the field other than pitcher for CF and get the same answer.
  2. S5Dewey
    As a fan and a guy who'd have given a good portion of his right arm to play professional baseball (how well I could have played with part of my right arm missing is another story) this is one of the things that rankled me the most about Kimbrel. No only does he think he can command a multi-million dollar contract, he also wants to dictate how he'll be used. Well, NO! If I'm an owner paying that kind of money I'm going to be able to dictate how and when is your best opportunity to help the team win. This strikes me as a prime example of the tail wagging the dog.
  3. S5Dewey
    This team seems a lot like last year's team in that the top of the order is good enough to win a lot of games and when the bottom of the order produces they can put up double-figures runs at almost any time. The pitching is now coming around as is the (3B) defense. IMO the only thing that might keep them from winning the AL East is the poor start they got off to.
  4. S5Dewey
    So according to FiveThirtyEight the Sox have essentially gone back to where they were at the start of the season. Not bad, considering the poor start they had. The Mariner's have improved over the past 5 days from 2.6% to 6% now though. Things are looking up for Mariners fans!
  5. S5Dewey
    That was my thought too, but I didn't want to get into it.
  6. S5Dewey
    The thing that's odd (and misleading) about "Holds" and "Blown Saves" is that a player doesn't get credit for a Hold unless he leaves with the team still ahead but he can get a blown save anytime. If a pitcher comes in to start a clean inning in the 6th with a lead he doesn't get credited with a Hold if he holds the lead in the 6th, and another Hold if he holds the lead in the 7th, and a 3rd Hold if he holds the lead in the 8th. But if he blows that lead anytime he gets credited with a "blown save". There are a lot more opportunities for a pitcher to get a negative statistic (a/k/a a "blown save) than there is a positive statistic (a Save or a Hold). It's really an unfair comparison to compare a long reliever's Holds and Blown Saves and try to draw any conclusions from that data.
  7. S5Dewey
    Wrong thread. This is what happens when one tries to post and watch the game at the same time. LOL
  8. S5Dewey
    "Ok Dear, the School Board says we can sex without protection during September, October, and November. The rest of the time we have to be using some kind of contraceptive". Ya. Run that by a teacher and see how they feel about it.
  9. S5Dewey
    True story: My ex was a teacher and when they were negotiating maternity leave a member of the school board suggested they should schedule their pregnancies so they'd deliver in the summer.
  10. S5Dewey
    Anyone who has played sports competitively knows how difficult it is to know when to call it quits and IMO that's what's going on with Pedroia. I'm sure he wants to come back and the FO may be giving him every chance to do it out of respect for him. Deep down they know what we know, that it's not going to happen, but then need to have it be Pedey's decision and not the FO's, both out of respect for Pedey and because DFA'ing him would be a PR nightmare.
  11. S5Dewey
    This isn't a condemnation of metrics at all, but it's instances like these (and Jeter and JBJ) that give metrics a bad name. When we as fans see things that are obviously out of line with reality we have to ask ourselves what OTHER issues are there with the metrics that we're not seeing because they're not as obvious. Either that or we just accept the fact that because it's a mathematical calculation is must be right, and I'm not good at that!
  12. S5Dewey
    But as I said yesterday (?), that only works when JBJ has Mookie beside him. With out Mookie beside him JBJ becomes a lot more valuable. Like when JDM is out there . For all the talk we have about the Red Sox having possibly the best defensive outfield in baseball it centers around that guy in CF. He covers the ground and lets the corner OF's play a little closer to the lines.
  13. S5Dewey
    I am humbled. In the past week I've been to one Sea Dogs game, two NCAA Div.1 Games, two D3 games (the conference tourney is close by) two high school games and one HS softball game. I'm planning on a HS game tomorrow (weather permitting) and a D1 game on Saturday. And I still spend too much time in front of my computer.
  14. S5Dewey
    Some people get out of the house and watch baseball, whatever the level. Others sit in front of their computers all day.
  15. S5Dewey
    After considerable pondering of the question of the batting order and weighing both sides of the issue I've decided that it's not worth pondering over. After considerable analysis the "analytics folks" have determined that 1) the batting order doesn't make much difference, and 2) the best hitter should not bat third. However, baseball being such a random sport with so many variables I question how the "AF's" could determine what the #3 hitter would have done had he been in the #2 spot. All that can be proven is what the #2 hitter did in the #2 spot and the #3 hitter did in the #3 spot. Everything else is conjecture. Therefore since the batting order doesn't make much difference and we can't know what the #3 hitter would have done in the #2 spot we can just as easily say that the traditional way of having the best hitter bat third may be the best way to construct an order. It may be right and it may be wrong, but it can't be proven either way.
  16. S5Dewey
    That must mean more to some folks than others. Red Sox chances of making the post-season: 78.7% Seattle's chances of making the post-season: 2.6%
  17. S5Dewey
    Let's hope that Cora doesn't owe Sale a no-no or a perfect game for this defensive alignment.
  18. S5Dewey
    Hahahahaha!
  19. S5Dewey
    If this is true then the Sox need to hang onto him at least until Mookie's future is decided because if Mookie signs elsewhere we're going to need all of those defensive plays to his left that Mookie is robbing him of now. If the "Dump JBJ" movement succeeds and Mookie walks our outfield will go from being outstanding (maybe the best in baseball) to being less than mediocre.
  20. S5Dewey
    So which do you believe, do you believe that he was 1/3 of a win per year better than a replacement player, or that "he was damn good on defense"? I don't mean to be a jerk about this but you can't have it both ways and I'm trying to make a point here.
  21. S5Dewey
    Was Evans really defensively worse than a replacement player for 15 of his 20 seasons? Was Lynn really only 1/3 of a game more valuable defensively than a replacement player each year he was in Boston? Is JBJ really currently worse defensively than a replacement player?? Again, not the league average CF'er, but a Replacement Player???
  22. S5Dewey
    And did they have "trained observers" looking at every play of every inning of every game and determining range, etc?
  23. S5Dewey
    So now they're using two different methods to determine dWAR and passing the values off as one being as accurate as the other.
  24. S5Dewey
    I never have had any problem with oWAR because as you say it's based on stats. Those stats don't create a perfect picture of who that player is/was but they're certainly close and reasonable. However, dWAR is a horse of another color as demonstrated by Lynn's minus WAR values. Like you, I don't know how dWAR was calculated before the total zone system was set up, but it's apparent that BR is passing the pre-zone system off as being as accurate as the post-establishment of the system. I'm not even disputing that Lynn was a great CF'er. I'm just asking people in our age group who we're supposed to believe - dWAR, or our own lyin' eyes? It's appearing more and more to me that dWAR is extremely valuable in determining the defensive worth of a player as long as that player's worth coincides with what we already believe.
  25. S5Dewey
    And BTW, 2.3 spread over 7 years is a little less than .33 per season, hardly GG material. Bradley has a dWAR of 5.7 over his first seven seasons. If one has faith in WAR then it's a no-brainer that JBJ is definitely a better fielder than Lynn.
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