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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    If interest in Pivetta is as reported, a 4 year $60mill contract seems light…
  2. notin
    Wacha also re-signed immediately and didn’t have multiple bidders driving up the price…
  3. notin
    I’ve gotten replies that their values are all wrong, which is egomaniacal silliness. It does work a very good percentage of the time. But do they make mistakes? Yes. Heck, as of this morning, they listed Cutter Coffey as still on the Red Sox when he was dealt to the Jays last July. But the occasional even egregious error doesn’t invalidate the entire system…
  4. notin
    1. Money? 2. Maybe his competitive spirit is such that he wants to beat the defending champs? All players want to win on some level, but all of them don’t necessarily want to ride along on someone else’s successes…
  5. notin
    The A’s also never make trades that fit that model. But BTV is good for what it’s good for - telling you a trade is fair. Its main and completely unfixable flaw is it cannot incorporate whether or not a team wants to make that trade…
  6. notin
    Other than the fantasy sites (which have an obvious difference), I don’t know of another. Of course I bet every team has their own proprietary model…
  7. notin
    859 career IP and already two TJ surgeries. Depends on the length of contract…
  8. notin
    I like BTV and many trades do work on their model. But they are just one source…
  9. notin
    If as you say they are only not re—signing him because he didn’t extend, then it’s not due to the elbow. Neither Freeman nor Swanson had similar concerns. I don’t know if they tried to extend him or not. If they never tried, the elbow might be back in play. But then it also might be due to their pitching depth…
  10. notin
    If so, it’s clearly not an elbow issue. Did they even try to extend him? They also have serious pitching depth in the upper minors, so maybe they prefer not and might save the cash to lock up Strider…
  11. notin
    Are they out on him? They still might try to re-sign him…
  12. notin
    This was probably the wrong year to opt out for Eovaldi. But as he turns 35 in January, I understand his urgency. But he’s clearly behind Burnes, Fried, Snell, and probably Sasaki. And I can see Nate, Flaherty, Buehler, Kikuchi, Manaea, Pivetta, Martinez, and Severino and probably another name or two ranked in multiple ways that both benefit and disadvantage him.
  13. notin
    If you believe in the values on BTV, Guerrero ($1.5) and Romero ($4.2) plus a pick only works for Williams ($11.2) if the pick has a surplus of around $6mill. (It might.) Guerrero plus Hamilton ($11.2) works better and gives the Brewers an actual replacement for Adames, assuming they don’t mind shifting Brice Turang back to shortstop. They probably value Williams over that package, but with one year left on his deal and coming off a back injury, I wouldn’t go any higher, assuming I even went that high…
  14. notin
    Buzz does indicate the strong possibility of Pivetta turning down the QO, which is interesting because this might be the strongest free agent starting pitching market in quite a while. If Pivetta is really carrying all this intrigue, it’s probably because he’s viewed as the much cheaper option to Burnes/Fried/Snell/Sasaki. But if too many teams get interested, his appeal as a cheaper (yet sufficient) option should take a hit as the price/years go up…
  15. notin
    The title of the thread is BOLD predictions. We have a separate thread for realistic stuff.
  16. notin
    If I asked the difference between a 2.0 fWAR DH and a 1.5 fWAR DH, what would that be? And while it’s true, only 4 players had 500 PA as a DH, it doesn’t mean much at all and certainly doesn’t mean teams don’t employ a full time DH. Only 5 players had 500 PA as a right fielder, but I think we can agree the overwhelming majority of teams do have a full time right fielder …
  17. notin
    As of today, the Sox have only one open spot on their 40 man roster, which means one protectee and no pick. They have a few potential DFAs they need to clear out first. Candidates include Gasper, Sogard, Shugart, and Horn. Not in that order…
  18. notin
    Spend on Soto - position players, while not immune, still represent better injury risks than pitchers. Trade for a pitcher…
  19. notin
    I’m thinking Burnes wants outrageous money. Why else would he keep losing arbitration hearings even after winning a Cy Young award?
  20. notin
    Because it’s not a rarity when Pivetta pitches 130 IP in a season?
  21. notin
    1. The Red Sox acquire their new ace -Sandy Alcantara. 2. Masataka Yoshida becomes a 2.0 fWAR DH, placing him in the top 7 in the league. Larry still wants him traded ;) 3. Tanner Houck is worth 5.0 fWAR. 4. Ceddane Rafaela wins the Gold Glove for a CF and cuts his strike outs down to 25% while drawing walks 8% of the time. 5. The Sox sign Juan Soto. Go big or go home…
  22. notin
    This is a lot like what was said about Jake Arrieta when he was still in Baltimore (and I compared Pivetta to on this board back in 2020). It seems like a huge stretch to expect from Pivetta, who is now some. 4 years older than Arrieta when he had his sudden meteoric rise…
  23. notin
    Ok but Grissom is already on the 40 man roster, so he and his league-minimum salary should be on your list…
  24. notin
    If Yoshida put up 2 fWAR as a DH, he’d be among the best in MLB. Kyle Schwarber had only 3 fWAR as a DH in 670 PA. JD Martinez, Giancarlo Stanton and the recently traded Jorge Soler were all below 1 fWAR as DHs. With DHs, some perspective is needed because the position has no defensive contribution….
  25. notin
    There is a difference now. It helps on these mega-deals if a team has a supply of minimum wage talent to offset the cost of the superstar somewhat. The Sox didn’t have that in 2020. They do now. They also have fewer big exiting contracts right now. This doesn’t mean they will make a competitive offer for Soto, but they are at least in a different position to do so. The increase from Betts to Soto is massive, but had they extended Betts, they would also still have had the $93mill owed to Price, which might make up for close to maybe 40% of the gap…
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