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I don’t agree the injury history is similar simply because Montgomery has pitche almost 700 innings since his last surgery. (Arguments that he’s due are acknowledged.) But with Giolito coming off TJ, which might be his second (I could be wrong), this rotation is fragile enough. Montgomery might not be the best solution. I just think he’s a better one than Buehler…

I do think Alonso and Bregman make more sense for NY than Burnes. But I think a left-handed hitting corner INF would be an even better fit..

Or if Rodon turns in another season under 70 IP…

I am aware of the estimate. But as we’ve seen this offseason, they are often wildly inaccurate, especially on players garnering significant interest. With Buehler, 1 yr at $15mill is not crazy, which is why it probably won’t happen. Much like Luis Castillo, he’s getting way more attention than any pitcher coming off a 5.54 ERA season ever has. I just don’t see the bidding stopping there, and I don’t see it stopping at one year. Not everyone can afford Burnes at $240mill over 8 yrs (or whatever). But most teams won’t be scared off by $25mill over 2 yrs for Buehler…

First of all, Buehler’s price is unknown, so $15 million, much like one year, is an assumption. Second “but it’s cheaper to put him on the IL than Giolito” isn’t the best argument. Giolito isn’t working out as it is; why is another option down the same path the preferred plan?

Are the Yankees out on Burnes? They could pay him plus Fried less than their offer to Soto. The Dodgers were probably never in. Their contract with Snell was one of the bigger ones if not the biggest they’ve ever given to a SP age 30 or over. Blue Jays are out, whether they know it or not. No one wants to go there. Probably because they hate seeing their home runs in meters and their fastball velocities in km/hr. The Giants are the name I keep hearing…

I’m sure Henry hates the very idea of a $7mill middle reliever. Hates it more than he hates poor people, kittens, and joy among the masses…

A trade for Murphy fills two needs, as he is a good right-handed bat. He had 4 years/$60 mill left on his deal, a good (offensively at least, unsure of his D) young catcher in AAA named Drake Baldwin. BTV gives him a negative surplus trade value at -$14mill. If that’s accurate, the reported “big package” might not hold. It doesn’t make him free, and certainly doesn’t make Atlanta a dumping ground for Yoshida. But a good yet potentially overpaid player might entice them. I’d start the bidding with Garrett Whitlock, who is slated to be a middle reliever making $14mill over the next two seasons. His surplus value is -$1.1 mill indicating Atlanta should kick in some cash, but I ultimately wouldn’t hold them to it…

That’s another factor. Of course discussions of what pitcher I prefer over what pitchers Breslow prefers will most definitely go in two different directions. And obviously mine won’t be the right one…

Burnes is in too many radars to be a plausible option (at least to me). Bregman, not so much. Fortunately the Mets are set at 3b with Baty and Vientos. The Yankees could use a 3b, but also a 1b. With both the Yankees and Mets needing a first sacker, I hope they both focus more on Pete Alonso than Bregman. Let them start another bidding war there…

To me, Buehler injects excitement like Wade Miller did. Yeah we got a name guy that we might never see do anything when we had a chance to get a lesser pitcher who showed up for work…

There are success stories, like Taillon and Eovaldi. But with SPs, it’s maybe 50%. Its actually tough to tell with some pitchers, because about 10 or so years ago, it became a trend by very stupid parents to have TJ surgery done on high school kids because the belief was it lead to throwing harder (it obviously doesn’t). But it’s possible some MLB pitchers had this done. I also seem to recall Lucas Giolito had TJ his senior year in high school due to a UCL tear. (He threw hard enough to not need it to augment anything). If pitchers had it before turning pro, it’s not so easy to find out. HIPPA and all. But if I’m right, we’re already hoping for one recovery from two TJs. Why add another?

Yes it’s the case with TJS, but that’s whole point and not a brush off excuse. His 2021 was outstanding, but that’s also 4 years ago now…

Right. They get scheduled like that. At least we know he won’t be like Josh Johnson, who had his first in 2007, his second in 2014, then came back in 2016 and FACED ONE BATTER and had to have his third one. Maybe those timelines between surgeries don’t always balance out..

For very unsavory reasons, Montgomery had a bad year. That does happen, but he’s been very reliable throughout the rest of his career. Buehler is trying to become his former self despite his arm being rebuilt multiple times. He may never be the same. For one year, l lean towards Montgomery as the more likely bounce back candidate. Despite a higher ERA, Montgomery had a better FIP, lower walk rate, and lower home run rate. Buehler had a better K rate. Montgomery most likely has the higher salary. But the years are already set. It’s for one year. Buehler should only get a one year deal, but with the number of players involved, it just takes one team willing to guarantee . I take Montgomery for one guaranteed year with a normal off-season, and I think he outperforms Buehler…

Sugano carries a risk, but it’s a different type risk…

On BTV, Fedde has a surplus value of $16.5mill, so he comes at a fairly steep price. Montgomery, on the other hand, has a surplus value of (-$10.4mill). Readily available. Sure you might not be able to pawn off Yoshida or Story for him, but nearly everyone else in the entire organization is in play here…

Depends. What would Jordan Montgomery’s price tag be? Or Erick Fedde’s? Both have one year left, and should be available. Fedde’s salary is pretty low, so he might cost something. Montgomery? Not likely much..

Really? Nuttier than the statement about pitchers with 2 TJs having an 89-90% success rate? Or the one.about Pivetta being risky because Giolito got injured? And it wasn’t just the age difference. It was age vs very risky health history. Why is that part left out of your summary? Kluber didn’t work out, but he was less risky than Buehler, who, in case you didn’t notice, was pretty bad last year. But the overall reality is you will have a better success rate with 37yo starting pitchers who were ok at 36 than you will pitchers coming off their second Tommy John. Im not convinced the Sox really need another SP. But as depth is a good thing, I’d prefer that pitcher not be Buehler. When it comes to needing starter depth, Buehler is more of a cause than a solution. The only decent remaining starters do have QOs (except Flaherty). Granted, signing one keeps the Sox even with draft picks, so it’s not so punitive. But why limit to just free agents? Or if you need to sign someone, sign bullpen arms. Or better yet, if he really only wants 3 years, sign Teoscar. But limit it to 3 years. Signing him to a 4th and he will be 37, and then his talent will just evaporate immediately…

Right. Every player slams into that magical wallat age 37. Highlighting Buehler solely by his age is shallow and incomplete. His primary issues are not age-related. It’s more about the number of stitches holding his UCL together. Again, Kluber threw 160 inning AT AGE 36! Buehler failed to do that at age 27. And 28. And when he did come back at age 29, he wasn’t that good. Is he worth a one year gamble? Maybe, but most likely it’s just a. waste. Rather than spend on Buehler, get a reliever. Or make a deal for a contracted pitcher some other team wants to move. Tyler Anderson? Erick Fedde? Jordan Montgomery? There’s no rule you can only acquire free agents. Yes, trading costs prospects, but none of those arms will cost you Kristian Campbell…

Pivetta would work, but he might be looking at $100mill over 4 years. At that price, I pass…

See I think saying “Kluber was older” is lazy and unjustified. Kluber was coming off a season with 160 IP and worth 3 fWAR. For Burnes or Flaherty, the Sox should re-arrange the rotation. But I’d rather bulk up the bullpen with options like Tanner Scott or Jeff Hoffman over signing Buehler. The Sox have enough physically questionable starting pitchers already. If we need IP, keep Kutter in the rotation. And it’s more of a bullpen game today anyway. Fewer starters throw 200 IP anymore. Today, teams need about 1450 IP for a season, but starting rotations often only pitch 700-800 of them. The bullpen obviously gets the rest, meaning you need a lot more than just a closer out there. Fifteen years ago, you needed just 3 reliable RPs. Now, having 5 makes your pen a question mark…

Manaea? Pivetta? Flaherty isn’t really all that reliable, but I take him over Buehler. Quintana makes more sense than Buehler. And we still have Fulmer just recovered from his second TJ.

I’m not sold on Buehler yet either. 75 largely ineffective IP in the regular season with a great HR/9 than Kutter Crawford shouldn’t be ignored because of 10 good innings in the postseason. Buehler is as big of a question mark as Paxton was, and I don’t understand how people can hope they avoid contracts like Kluber in favor of deals like Buehler. I’d much prefer Manaea or the return of Pivetta, and neither of them make my nipples explode with delight. Crochet is risky enough…

LA would trade Rendon before you finished his name in the request. Breslow: So I was wondering about a trade involving Anthony Ren… Minasian: Done! He’s all yours!