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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    I’m not for shopping Campbell, but his history and contract do make him an ideal target for some of those small market teams…
  2. notin
    Campbell has a surplus value of $46mill Keller has a surplus value of no $34.2 mill and Bednar somehow has a surplus value of $6.3mill, which is a lot for a guy who sucks. But that Pitt package is worth $40.5mill, making Campbell an overpay, but not an egregious one. It’s certainly a viable deal, BTV or not, and one I can’t see Pitt rejecting. I wouldn’t make it myself as I still have faith in Campbell. Pitt could even put the deal by sending back Nick Yorke!
  3. notin
    Santana’s primarily a pull hitter as well, but at least he is a switch hitter. I like Naylor over Santana. Muncy is a tougher call. Naylor this year has become a threat as a baserunner, which is no small feat considering he’s basically the MLB equivalent of a sloth on crutches. He’s also fairly adept around the bag. The downside is Arizona is prioritizing young pitching in any deal for their trade candidates. BTV gives Naylor a surplus value of $3.2mill. From the Sox minor leagues, the closest matches are Jedixson Paez, Hayden Mullins, and Blake Wehunt. Is that really enough? It might be because historically 1b is not a huge priority for a lot of teams at the deadline. Also - no mention of Rhys Hoskins? I know Hes out with a sprained thumb, but he is expected to return this year. Maybe mid-August?
  4. notin
    Exactly. I have my doubts any backup catcher replacement would be a significant upgrade. Do we want another Blake Sabol type? Someone stat pointed out Wong knows the staff (and just as important, the staff knows him). That has to count for something…
  5. notin
    Of course I am. You must be confusing me with Cesar Crespo…
  6. notin
    Dont talk to a Connecticutian (is that what they are called?) about pizza!! They swear they have the best pizza in the country, but they have toppings like mashed potatoes and corn!
  7. notin
    Not to mention not many teams unloading MLB pitching are acquiring MLB hitting…
  8. notin
    It’s just because Breslow is planning a skiing trip with his family this December…
  9. notin
    On BTV, Campbell for Keller is a huge overpay. But I’d be shocked if Pitt didnt go for it. i wouldn’t do I it myself. Campbell is owed $60mill over 8 years. Keller is owed roughly $60mill over the next 3 yrs and 2 months. With Kelley’s raises coming (25mill in 2026, $18mill in 2027, $20mill in 20/8), I think Oitt might be eager to move their biggest contact…
  10. notin
    That’s not what you said. Every team should get better if they improve their worst position. How much better varies, but I doubt the awful Cubs’ bench has cost their team 6-7 games. But you said “you’re only as good as your 26th man.” Like the last player is a link in a chain. The Cubs last 3 players combine for -0.1 bWAR, and it’s only that high because Beet started for a month while Matt Shaw was demoted. Wong has not cost their team Red Sox 5 or 6 games. He is having an awful season, but guess what? Most backup catchers are one-dimensional glove types with minimal hitting skills. If the Sox had Martin Maldonado, do you think they’d have 5 more wins? Hint: they wouldn’t. Maybe 1-2 more max. Maybe…
  11. notin
    BTV accepts Campbell and Tolle. Minnesota, on the other hand…
  12. notin
    In the Sox last 11 games: Rafaela 39 PA 1.410 OPS 5 HR 15 RBI Crochet: 14 IP 1.29ERA (1.22FIP) 16K Both we’re really good, but didnt one sample just seem smaller?
  13. notin
    If a team can the World Series and play only 11 postseason games, what are you rewarding? Maybe 10-15 IP for a starter or 5-6 good IP for a reliever?
  14. notin
    Not even remotely true. And seriously melodramatic. I live in Chicago and see lots of Cubs games. The Cubs have the worst (non-catcher) bench Ive ever seen. Two light-hitting pinch runners (Brujan and Berti) who primarily play infield and a 40yo corner infielder (Justin Turner) whose best days are in the rear view mirror. Also no outfielders. And yet the Cubs are one half game behind the best record in the NL and 1.5 games behind the best record in MLB. Why doesn’t their bench drag them down, as you say it should? And their weird thing is - their pitching really isn’t that good, either. But their bench is atrocious. Wong is having a bad year. But if you’re blaming him for any part of the Sox record, you’re putting far too much on him…
  15. notin
    That backup catcher is on wish lists strikes me as too picky.. I’m ok with Wong. I’m ok with replacing Wong. Wong has pros and cons, but it’s unlikely anyone brought him to replace him will only have pros…
  16. notin
    Why take on a struggling pitcher for two months? I like the idea of getting back Mitch Keller in a Duran trade…
  17. notin
    At least Buehler gets hurt a lot, so you get some respite when he struggles since he hits the IL so often. But Gallen almost NEVER gets hurt. So when he struggles, you’re going to see it again. And again. And again. And again…
  18. notin
    Roman Anthony won’t play for free, either…
  19. notin
    And honestly, if Pitt accepted Rafaela, Campbell and Tolle for Skenes, Breslow should be fired multiple times if he doesn’t pull that trigger. Acquiring Skenes without giving up either Anthony or Mayer is some Nobel-worthy roster building. Of course on some level, it also feels like George Costanza’s famous “ I figured out how we can get Bonds and Griffey! And we wouldn’t have to give up that much!”
  20. notin
    BTV gives Skenes a surplus value of $133mill. The Sox players have the following surplus values: Mayer: $54mill Campbell: $46mill Password: $12 mill Total is roughly $112mill, some $21mill short. For the record, Payton Tolle has a surplus value of $20mill. Perfect fit. And we both know Pitt NEEDS to get at least one pitcher back in any Skenes trade…
  21. notin
    The real problem is what Pitt would accept. Skenes is a PR gem who has lived up to the hype. He’s only pitched 43 games so far, but he has also won ROY, come in 3rd in Cy Young balloting, and been two 2 all Star games. And he’s only 23! That makes him 7 months older than Tolle! I have my doubts Tolle can accrue equal hardware in the next 7 months. If I’m the Pitt CBO, I’d want to say absolutely no Skenes trade without Anthony. Anything less, and at minimum I’m going to be vilified in the Gazette. But honestly, a package of Rafaela, Campbell and Tolle would actually work better since Rafaela and Campbell are both locked up to deals that work within my budget. That latter deal is does actually work on BTV. But I think the real Pitt CBO would be VERY, VERY hesitant. But would you pull the trigger?
  22. notin
    Why is Gallen even coming up? Has anyone seen the year he is having? If for some reason the goal is to add a former NL West pitcher with an ERA over 5, let’s just keep Buehler…
  23. notin
    At might be a premature conclusion based on one draft. Breslow’s predecessor drafted bats heavily over arms to bulk the number of blue chip prospects in the system. Breslow is balancing things out considering the weakness of the pitching in the Sox system these past few seasons…
  24. notin
    On BTVs model, that Sox offer is short by $10mill in surplus value aka still not enough. If giving up Tolle is an obstacle to acquiring a two-time All Star with only two years experience, you might be overvaluing him. Tolle is the easiest inclusion of the three IMO…
  25. notin
    The Twins aren’t just trying to unload Ryan; if they move him, it will be for some pieces they bite as key to the future. As Ryan has 2 1/2 years left on his deal,! This is far from urgent. It’s possible that if Boston asks about Ryan, the Twins say “Roman Anthony or no deal”. This kind of demand is actually fairly common…
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