But there is a one in three chance of the 9th inning starting with the bottom of the order. And even facing the 9-1-2 hitters, while not ideal, should place the opposing team in a one out-no one on situation before the leadoff hitter comes up. That’s a high probability win scenario.
If about two-thirds of all save situations are 2 and 3 run leads, which is probably close to true most of the time, then that means about 30% of all save situations, the first hitter in the ninth bats 6th or beliw down multiple runs. That’s a high likelihood of a win right off the bat. And that also means the 3-4-5 hitter come up in the 7-8th, which is where the feat of the real damage can occur.
I have no problem using the best reliever to get those better hitters in the 7-8th and saving a lesser pitcher for the ninth. But that lesser pitcher probably shouldn’t be a career minor leaguer. You still need an actual good pitcher out there. I was never opposed to getting a Kimbrel/Britton /Ottavino type, but I never liked limiting him to the 9th inning, because that’s not always where the game is on the line.
And I was adamantly opposed to replacing the 120 IP lost from Kimberly and Kelly with Brewer and Walden. That was just flat out stupid...