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Everything posted by notin
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Exactly. They're barely differentiated over a full season, let alone a post-season that can be as short as 3 games. A player with 4.5 fWAR does rank ahead of a player with 4.3 fWAR when sorted on Fangraphs, but that level of contribution is negligible. If we started using WAR in the post-season, it would have to be carried out to 3 decimal places just to see differences, and at that point, it's just getting stupid...
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Not to mention, Randy Johnson started games 1 and 4 of that series. He did give up 5 ER in game 1, but 4 of them came in the fifth inning (his last) and he was done in by walks and singles and some shoddy attempts to catch base stealers. He then came back on short rest and started game 4, in which he went 8 innings (for a CG) and gave up 3 ER, but lost...
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Not necessarily. Those "elite" pitchers in the post-season are very often on the tail end of seasons where they have already pitched 180 to 220 IP (counting previous post-season appearances in some cases). That can be a huge factor, and probably one of the biggest reasons a lot of great pitchers don't have great post-season numbers, as we all saw when David Price had a good post-season in 2018 after finally pitching in the post-season after his lowest regular season IP total in his career (not couting the injury-plagued 2016). Prior to last season, Price was labeled a post-season choker, but a definite possibility was always that he was simply worn out at the tail end of all those 200+ IP seasons...
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Buy some skates...
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but most players don't play every year. So then you have games 2 or 3 years apart. The player is probably not equally healthy every post-season, and in some cases the effects of aging set in. Someone like Jeter had basically a full season's worth of post-season stats. And his numbers were virtually identical to his regular season numbers. But the overwhelming majority of players have scattered post-season appearances that too often get lumped into one stat line that becomes their post-season evaluation. And this isn't jut from fans; sportswriters, sportscasters, and commentators all do this, too. It's like a few random months, like every third June in a player's career, collecting those stats, and then determining he can or cannot hit in June...
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Can you send me like maybe 20 or 30 degrees?
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Exactly. That's why I am not a fan of post-season stats. They're typically a bunch of small samples scattered out over a number of years. Really, I keep it simple with post-season stats ("Good post-season", "bad series" type stuff) and I think any analysis beyond that is probably going to be faulty and useless...
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Actually Inside Edge Fielding has Miguel Andujar doing very well in the routine plays but not making the more difficult ones...
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It's 25 degrees in Chicago today. Forgive me if I keep thinking it's January...
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And that was exactly where all the injuries that derailed the season occurred...
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I certainly hope so. Right now, the only name mentioned was Jake Marisnick, and even then no one is certain how interested the Sox really are. But if the Sox still have a good OF, they aren't going to bench Martinez to let Pedroia DH. And that's with assuming Pedroia can do that much. Now if the plan is to trade Martinez, and let Pedroia DH, that's different (and unwise). But they certainly wouldn't be trading Martinez just to clear a place to play for Pedroia...
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Dombrowski did try to get a lot of bullpen depth, none of which really panned out. But at least he did not ignore the problem. However, he did nothing for the starter depth prior to acquiring Cashner...
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Well, given that the Sox are reportedly going to move Bradley and Betts and have no minor league outfielders ready to play at the MLB level not named Rusney, if Pedroia goes to DH, it would probably push JD to the outfield. While not ideal defensively, the Sox don't have a ton of other options right now. I know there will be additions, but as of today, if Pedroia plays DH and Martinez plays, say, LF, is that better or worse than having Martinez at DH and Cole Sturgeon in LF?
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I don't see the Sox having 40 man roster issues. Even with Pedroia currently on the roster, they still only have 34 players on it. And those 34 players include Sam Travis, Brian Johnson, Trevor Kelley, and Bobby Poyner. Even if these players were claimed, there is nothing special there. Not to mention, Heath Hembree, Jackie Bradley, and Sandy Leon also still have spots along with questions about their return. And Josh Osich has a spot. That's nearly a quarter of the occupied slots taken by players who are not coming back or are not difficult to replace. Counting the six spots already vacant, I'm not too worried if Pedroia has to spend a month or two on the 40 man roster. I also doubt the Sox need 15 spots to add worthy minor league players...
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Really? Those three also started all of 59 games, where as one would expect fully the fully healthy trio to start 96 games. Think the Sox still would still win a minimum of 86 games knowing their best SPs would get replaced for 37 games by Hector Velasquez, Brian Johnson and Ryan Weber?
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Or he is 60 day IL material, which means he does no take a roster spot...
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The team won 84 games despite getting bout 320 IP combined from Sale, Price and Eovaldi. If you knew before the season that the team would only get 320 IP from those 3, how many wins would you expect?
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Oh it's very easy to overestimate them...
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I know. I can't tell you how many fans from teams all over have looked at an 85 win team and screamed for the whole thing to be blown up and rebuilt...
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And what does that accomplish?
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The values would be so small and clustered together, they wouldn't mean much...
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And right away. If you're going to do this stuff. at the very least don't wait until the 8th inning of the next day. That's just starting a whole new issue...
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Not to mention, it’s not like this team won 60 games last year. They won 84 games, which is a lot of wins for a team with one pitcher in the starting rotation...
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Didn’t you see Moneyball? When Billy Beane is telling Scott Hatteburg he is going to play 1b. “It’s not that hard, Scott. Tell him”. “It’s incredibly hard.”
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Before we accept them as fungible, maybe we should see if it works, first...
