moonslav59

2022: 3-0 @OAK 3-0 @ LAA 2-1 @ SEA (the 1 loss was 7-6, when Robles let up 2 in the bottom of the 9th))

"Possible, if not likely" IMO, a player's first 162 games in MLB are rarely his best. They might be all he gets, and some who don't make it, do drop out of baseball by doing the same or worse than their first 162 games in MLB. (Dalbec might be an example of this.) With catchers, again, IMO, most mature and improve on D after age 28. Many don't until their 30's, including VTek. With his offense, it's hard to project how anybody does after just 473 career PAs, and you don't need a good OPS to be middle of the pack in MLB. Catcher OPS in MLB: .697 in '21 .663 in '22 .697 in .23 Wong is at .670, right now. 2023 was his first real "full season" at the MLB level. He was at .721 as late as Sept 12th, but that .198 OPS over his last 43 PAs really killed is seasonal numbers. Of course, they should count, but I see a real possibility he improves his O, and I think it is likely he improves his D.

Indeed. We've had 6 pitchers ranked 1-2-3 in the last 9 years. Only Bello is pitching at the ML level. (Mata might be, this year.) We've had 15 pitchers ranked 4-8th: Whitlock & Houck are on our big club team. Kopech and Beeks are the only others to do anything significant. Wink & Crawford were ranked 9th or lower and have done better than most of our 1-8 ranked pitching prospects. My point was meant to highlight the possibility that maybe a pitcher in our system, right now, not named Wikelman or Perales, might end up outshining the others, or maybe Wikelman or Perales outshine those previously ranked higher than they are, now. or not.

Agreed, but improvement is certainly possible, if not likely. Most players best 162 games are not their first.

Well, one of sale's was from riding a bike. 2018> games played/ PAs 560/1989 Duvall 477/1636 O'Neill 2021-2023 324/1223 Duvall 306/1186 O'Neill Pretty close to a wash

VTek's career by age group: Offense: .763 OPS up to age 28 (91 OPS+) .831 OPS from 29-33 (114 OPS+) .726 OPS from ages 34-39 (87 OPS+) dWAR 1.2 in 2750 innings (>28) 3.0 in 4,650 innings (29-33) 4.6 in 4,600 innings (34-39) His best DRS seasons: +7 at 37 +4 at 36 +2 at 35 +1 at 34 0 at age 32 and 30

Many catchers improve, some greatly, after 28, especially on D. VTek's best years were after age 30. (His O was better, too, but that cannot be expected from Wong.) Wong hasn't even played 162 games in MLB, yet. It's entirely possible he improves on those numbers in the next 5 years.

It's not good that he misses the same time Duvall did. Mt point was that O'Neill's comp with Duvall includes about the same injury risk. I think replacing Duvall with O'Neill is close to a push. Replacing Dugo with more OF play from Abreu, Rafaela and Duran is highly speculative.

Kinda the same for all major cities.

Plus, he's only 30. Most players don't decline the day after they turn 30. Some start before 30, but I'm guessing most start after 30. A ton of career seasons came at age 30 or later, and yes, Yoshida is a unique case, in several ways: 1. Cultural adjustment 2. Game and league adjustments 3. Longer season (ran out of steam in Sept) 4. Should DH way more than play LF in 2024

When in the minors, many felt he might not stick at catcher. He seems to have improved, a lot. He's really good in some areas, but below average in others. To me, the big thing is how he can or cannot get the most out of our staff. With so much turnover, it's hard to establish any sort of relationship that can grow. If Teel ends up as good as many think he will, Wong could end up one of the leagues best back-up catchers.

Every park has the same SS and 2B dimensions. The SS at Fenway even has to deal with bounces off the foul territory wall to them. Catching at Fenway is easier, since the back stop is closer. RF is way more difficult than most parks. CF is quirky and maybe more difficult. LF is "easier," but learning the wall can be tough. To me, our defense looked as bad as I have ever seen it, last year. When Story played almost FT, it improved, but was still awful. SS was 30th, until Story moved it up a few notches. 2B was worst, and now we look to have an average defender who might become plus, someday. 1B & 3B have the same guys, so I'll leave that as a push, despite the idea that Casas improved over the year and could be better. C should improve, slightly as Wong and McGuire near the normal age of catcher maturation. OF is tough to call, since we don't really know what the alignment will be. Less Yoshida in LF maybe cancels out less Dugo in RF. The more we see Duran in LF, instead of CF, the better our OF D will be. The more Rafaela plays, the better the D is. Abreu is largely unknown, but looks okay, at worst. O'Neill in LF is a plus- in RF, probably not as good as Dugo. I think we move up from 30th to 21-24. With the right guys playing, maybe we can reach the middle tier.

The idea of what constitutes "prime" is usually between 26-32. With SP'ers, one usually has more concerns after 30-32, but I'm not sure if that is based on data. Many hitters are still strong at age 30. Many have their career years in their early 30's. I think it is reasonable to think Yoshida might improve after adjusting to a new culture, league and game, itself. We all know he might not.

Kopech has been healthier than Espinoza. Does that change anything?

It might get close to average, but I doubt it reaches good status.

So, O'Neill might miss close to the same time Duvall missed.

I see Wong at 25th and McGuire did not have 200 PAs as a catcher: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?lg=all&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&filter=&players=0&qual=200&season1=2023&season=2023&type=8&month=35&pagenum=1&pageitems=50 If you enter the "primary position," yes, they both place just outside the top 30. If you bring the PAs to 300, to get the top 30 catchers, Wong places 23rd.

Indeed. It's somewhat interesting that some of our current pitchers on the MLB club were not as highly rated as some that never made it or are not with the Sox, anymore. Highest soxprospects.com rankings in last 8-9 seasons: 1. Groome 2. DHern, Mata (is out of options in '23) 3. Espinoza, Owens 4. Song 5. Walter, Kopech 6. Drohan, Shawaryn, Beeks, B Johnson 7. Seabold, Ranaudo 8. TWard, Feltman, Scherff, Raudes 9. A Ramirez, Lakins On the Red Sox big club: 3. Bello 4. Whitlock 5. Houck 9. Winckowski 16. Crawford

I guess. I'm not sure we should just expect JH to do what others are doing, even if they are being reckless. That's not to say, I don't think he should spend more. The thing is, we could sign Monty and Duvall or Clevinger and probably still be below last year's payroll. To me, that is going too far, and is unacceptable to me, for what that is worth. I don't expect JH to spend like the Mets or LAD or even have a spurt like TEX just did, but we can and should compete by staying near the Tax line, every year. We should not be 14th in spending. I agree.

Bingo!

The state of catching is pretty bad, these days. I think Wong's ceiling is near an average starting catcher. Catchers often reach their peak value from ages 29-31, some like VTek, around 30-34. BTW, at age 27, placed 25th in fWAR at +0.7, last season. bWAR was more generous (+1.9.) In 2023, you needed a 1.2 fWAR to be in the middle tier (#11-20th.) I think Wong can reach that. He may not, but he can. Also, McGuire had a 1.3 fWAR in 2022 and placed 19th. If we can get both catchers to be somewhere in the 15-20 range, we'll be okay. My guess is Teel will boot McGuire off the roster in a year or two.

I think we can close to 98 with O'Neill & Abreu, but I can understand thinking it is unlikely we match it.

One problem is spending a larger percentage of winter funds on everyday players (and the pen for 2023) over the rotation. In earlier years, we spent way more on the rotation: Lackey Price Sale extension Nate re-sign Not only that, the money we did spend on SP'ers were largely failures: Perez Richards Perez II Kluber Only Wacha and Hill worked out okay to well. JH is part of the problem, for sure, but our CBO priorities changed and they swung and missed more than previous ones- on the rotation additions.

I'm not arguing against this point. I responded to the "5 year" statement, by pointing out that our highest payroll,e ver was within those 5 years. Two other years were in our top 5- top 7 or 8 when adjusting for inflation. That leaves the last two years- not the last 5. I also pointed out that part of the reason we dropped in the payroll rankings was due to sharp increases in spending by several other teams. It's not the only reason. Surely, I know JH has reigned in spending. 2020 was a major pull back. 2023 was basically standing pat, as he just about replaced the salary he lost, but other jumped over us. This winter is another major pull back, which is his second in 4 years. Together, those two years are a major reason we dropped to the middle of the pack. Other teams spending way more than before is also a major reason. These two points are not contradtictory or apologetic.

With expected jumps by one or two far away prospects, maybe we can get that number to 3!