moonslav59

Passed Balls and Wild Pitches. Finding new ways to allow runs to score.

As a team, our SP'ers have these numbers: OPS AGainst .551 first time through the line-up as SP .597 second .559 third (only 7 PAs 4th time through at 1.000 due to a homer allowed) .600 first 25 PAs against .651 26-50 .585 51-75 .566 76-100 (Only 3 PAs over 100 pitches at 2.000) By catcher .602 w McGuire (Top 6 by PA: Houck, Craw, Wink/Criswell, Piv/Anderson .614 w Wong (Houck, Craw, Bello, Wink, Whit/Martin) .494 last 7 days .591 last 14 days .609 for season .589 v LHB .630 v RHB .566 Away .651 Home .576 SP .651 RP .655 men on base (.746 RISP) .702 Late & Close .683 High Leverage

Weissert has looked pretty good, out of the gate, this year.

The 2024 sample sizes are small, but here are some defensive numbers: DRS -1 Wong in 162 innings (30th out of 44 catchers with 100+ innings) 22 out of 33 with 130+ innings -2 McGuire in 135 innings (34th out of 44 and 25th out of 33.) Some metrics show McGuire is better at pitch framing than Wong. Wong has better pop times on SB attempts. McGuire is better at blocking bad pitches. We've cycled through so many pitchers on this team since McGuire joined the team in 2022, that there are not many balanced AND large enough sample sizes to get a good read on who gets the most from our pitchers, one-by-one.

Houck He's doing better the "third time through" than years past, but is still struggling after 75 pitches. .327 1-25, .688 26-50, .308 51-75, but .793 at 76-100. His logs: We are 4-3 in his 7 starts. IP -ER -H+BB -K 6.0-0-3-10 6.0-0-6-7 5.2-4-12-2 (3 unearned runs) 2 run HR allowed in 6th 9.0-0-3-9 6.0-2-8-4 (2 of the 3 men he left on base in 7th scored) 6.2-1-4-9 6.0-4-8-5 (had allowed just 1 run going into 7th) OPS Against by innings: .395 1st .348 2nd .644 3rd .713 4th .292 5th .523 6th 1.252 7th (0.00 in 8th and 9th that one game) Crawford: He has amazing reverse splits: .405 v LHB & .669 v RHBs. He has only gone past 27 batters once. .529 1st PA, .558 2nd PA & .483 3rd PA. .488 pitch 1-25, .469 pitch 26-50, .675 pitch 51-75 & .460 pitch 76-100. Game logs: (Sox are 3-4 in his starts) 6.0-0-4-7 4.2-1-5-5 5.0-0-6-6 5.2-0-2-6 6.0-3-10-4 7.0-2-6-6

We have really swung and missed at so many pitchers, and if you look at the cost per IP or cost per quality IP, my guess is our best additions were the lower cost guys like Strahm, Wacha, Bernardino, Schreiber, Whitlock, Slaten and Wink (if you don't think trading away Beni was costly.) It's worse with SP'ers. Choosing how far to go back is subjective, but clearly adding Pedro, Schilling and Beckett were bold and successful moves. Maybe the downturn started around the Dice-K signing in 2007, in terms of returns on big money spent. One can also ask, "How much is big money spent?" Is the $5M spent on Brad Penny back in 2009 big? It certainly is bigger than $5M spent on Martin Perez or Rich Hill. Here is a likely incomplete list: $52M/6 Dice K '07 (plus massive signing fee) $83M/5 Lackey '10 (not a bad signing but not great, either) $68M/4 Beckett '11 (extension and was later traded) $30M/4 Buchholz '12 (extension) $27M/2 Dempter '13 (retired after '13) (traded for Peavy at $29M/2, then traded him the next yr) '13 $10M/1 Masterson '15 (traded for $19M/3 Wade Miley) $217/7 Price (traded w Betts) '16 $88M/4 Porcello (extension) '16 (traded for Sale at $32M/5) '17 & traded for Pom $4M/1 '17) $68M/4 Nate (re-signed after trading for him in '18) '19 $145M/5 Sale (extension signed in '19) '20 $7M/1 Perez '20 $10M/1 Richards & $5M/1 Perez in '21 $10M/1 Paxton '22 (w option for '23) $7M/1 Wacha & $5M/1 Hill in '22 $39M/2 Giolito & Whitlock extension at $19M/4 '24 Pen $12M/2 Jenks & $4M/1 A Bailey '11 $7M/1 Hanrahan & Koji $4M/1 '12 $10M/2 Mujica & $6M/2 Breslow '14 $18M/2 Koji '15 (traded for Kimbrel at $42M/4) '16 (traded for Ottavino at about $8M/1 remaining) $19M/2 Barnes (extension,) Diekman $8M/2 & $3M/1 Strahm '22 $32M/2 Jansen & $18M/2 Martin '23 $10M/2 L Hendriks '24

Both Wong and McGuire have some specific areas of need on D, and they are not the same. That does not make large and balance sample sizes of CERA BS. Ask most pitchers, if they prefer to pitch to one guy over another. Last year the early overall CERA numbers favored Wong, but when you broke it down by pitcher, and only compared those with somewhat large and balanced sample sizes, the margin was not so great. This year, the sample sizes are too small, but McGuire seemed to have evened things up. I'm not even going to look, until half the season is over, but they do seem to be balancing the load more, this year. They both have had their hot streaks at bat, but Wong is doing much better there. I'm glad we have both of them, despite the big mistake by McGuire, last night.

Who is he?

Campbell on a SSS. maybe Kavadas...

Even if they flame out, they have ALMOST passed Ben's kids, already. (Maybe they already have.)

MLB.com called him the oraganization's "hottest hitter."

I'm like 0-4, so I'll wait.

Actually, it's 3. I 3 counted as "bad" were: Bello's second start: 5IP, 4 ER, 6 H+BB (won this game) Houck's 3rd start: 5.1 IP, 4 ER, 12 H+BB (lost game) Anderson's last start/opener: 1.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 H+BB Borderline: Crawford's game where he let up 10 H+BB but only 3 ER in 6 IP (a quality start) (1 unearned run in the loss)

Only about a handful are still in the majors. DD's look to already be passing or near passing Ben's.

I meant to say up about 40%. It went from a previous high or 101 (2017 & 2018) to 146 (2023.)

Very amazing, although that was 8+ years ago. (Not even a Ben prospect left!)

Current players and the GM who acquired them: Correct me, if I got some wrong.) Ben: Devers (not traded by DD) DD: Houck Crawford Bello Duran Rafaela Mata, Murphy, Walter, Dalbec Wikelman, Perales Bloom: Pivetta Whitlock Abreu Wong McGuire Wink Bernardino Refsnyder Valdez Story, Yoshida, Jansen, Martin Kelly, DHam Breslow: Slaten Grissom Criswell Weissert O'Neill, Giolito, Hendriks Romy G, Anderson, Uwasawa, Campbell, Booser, Horn, Cooper, Sort, D Smith, Heineman Prospects with no MLB experience and not on 40: (not listed here: 4 Rafaela, 7 Abreu, 8 Wikelman, 10 Perales, 20 Slaten, 30 DHam) DD: 15. Castro 19. Paulino Guerrero Bloom: 1. Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 5. Bleis 6. Cespedes 11. Yorke 13. Zanetello 14. Meidroth 16. Jordan 17. Hickey 18. Jo Garcia Monegro, K Campbell, E R-C, Dobbins, Arias, A Anderson, Romero, Gambrell, Penrod Breslow: 9. Fitts 12. Sandlin Benitez, Olivares, Judice

In this case, I think our bats missed more good pitches to hit, or we swung at clear non strikes, but yes, their pitching got the job done. How about the fact that 30 of our 32 starts and openers have been decent to great? (Only 2 bad ones!)

We all know things can change on a dime, in this game, but yes, it's okay to be encouraged or optimistic about not only the future but 2024, as well. Brez and Bailey have gotten a lot of props, as well they should, for now, but the elephant in the room is also giving props to the GMs who laid this foundation out for them. DD got a lot of grief for "emptying" and "leaving the farm barren." About half or more of these guys leading us to wins are his acquisitions, or players he did not trade when highly ranked. While the next GM made some unforgivable blunders, quite a few of his guys are now looking pretty good, too. Maybe this is all a house of cards, and we will be hearing the same rants and rages, we've heard since 2019, with a short respite in 2021. I hope not. So far, our rotation and rotation depth has led this team. With 4 of the original top 6 SP'ers on the IL, this is nothing short of astounding. Pivetta struggled in his first rehab game, last night, but there is some hope that when 2-3 of these guys comeback, our pen will get a jolt, as well as the rotation. (I know we've heard this rant over the last few years, as we waited and waited for Sale, Nate, Wacha and others to come off the IL, but maybe this year will see a more positive outcome.) I had hoped this offense would be top 6-8, but top 10 might be asking too much, especially with Story and Casas on the IL for all or much of 2024. We've seen some boosts from guys like Wong, Abreu, Ref and O'Neill, but we will need others to do better to have a real chance. I hope the D improves with Grissom at 2B and Rafaela/Short at SS. Reyes is gone, and Valdez is back in AAA. While Duran in CF is not ideal, Abreu and O'Neill have looked fine on D. We are at the 1/5th point of the season. Sample sizes are still small, but they are getting close to being something we can begin to count on continuing. Crawford and Houck's ability to start 28+ games may be the biggest key to this team's success. 24+ from Bello and Pivetta would be a great boost. I hope we end the Whitlock as SP'er experiment and just go with Criswell or add another SP'er, if he drops off. 4/5th of a season is a long time. A lot can happen, but Brez and Bailey seem to be more proactive and insightful.

It wouldn't have mattered.

Yes, POR's game was pspd. Thanks for the correction. Maybe he will be in POR, soon.

Woo lost, as Pivetta got roughed up. 3 ip 3 ER, 3H, 4BB Meidroth 0-2 w 3 BB Hickey 2-4 Valdez 0-5 POR Campbell 4-4 w 2B & HR

Okay, and last year was about 140% of his previous high. There is no reason to think he can’t go 30 starts.

Woulda been nice to sweep. The bats went to sleep.

Just Three runs allowed should be enough to win at Fenway.