moonslav59

The season has begun! No doubt, the offseason was full throttle s*****. Much of that was captured on the Part I thread: https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20823-A-Realistic-View-at-2024-Part-I Starting the season on the 60 Day IL: Giolito (our biggest addition of the winter) Hendriks (acquired more for 2025 and the second half of '24.) Murphy Starting the season on the 10 Day IL: Grissom (may join the team after April 20th) Mata (out of options, so the team may try to prolong his rehab) Refsnyder (may be back in May) Walter (may be added to the 60 Day IL, if a roster move is needed) Opening Day 26 Man Roster: SP: Bello, Pivetta, Crawford, Whitlock, Houck RP: Jansen, Martin, Winckowski, Slaten, Campbell, Joely, Anderson, Weissert C: Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas, Dalbec (3B) 2B: E Valdez, Reyes (SS) 3B: Devers SS: Story LF: Duran CF: Rafaela RF: O'Neill (LF), Abreu (CF) DH: Yoshida Some notable minor league depth: SP: Criswell, Uwasawa (Not on 40: Gambrell, Fitts) Wikelman RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacques (Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Benitez) C: Heineman (Teel) 1B: (Kavadas, Jordan) 2B: DHam (Sogard, Yorke) 3B: (Meidroth SS: DHam (Mayer) OF: R Gonzalez (Contreras, Rosier, Anthony) When comparing this team to the disappointing 2023 team, it's easy to see losing Sale, Paxton, Turner, Duvall and Dugo as being a big loss, but most of these guys did not play a whole lot and or did not do all that great, when they did play (not Turner.) When looking more closely, we can see many other players who are gone or will not play as much as being more addition by subtraction, such as Kike/Arroyo/Urias/Chang, Tapia, Kluber, Schreiber, Bleier, Brasier, Llovera, Ort and many others. When you add up these guys PAs and IP, it was more significant than we might imagine. Looking at the Defense, Offense and Pitching projections: Defense (2023 Innings>2024 projected w no injuries) C: Wong (940>940), McGuire (430>480) 1B: Casas (1040>1400), Dalbec (100>30) No Turner 2B: Grissom (0>1100), EValdez (360>300), Reyes (200>30) No Arroyo/Kike/Urias 3B: Devers (1290>1400), Dalbec (15>30) No Turner SS: Story (310>1300), Reyes (200>130) No Kike/Chang LF: Duran (170>1200), Refsnyder (350>130), O'Neill (100) No Yoshida CF: Rafaela (120>1000), Abreu 90>430) RF: O'Neill (0>1200), Abreu (10>230) I see marked improvement on D at SS, 2B, CF and LF. I see slight or possible improved D at RF, 1B and maybe 3B, C On offense: (2023 Positional OPS> 2024 projected PAs) C: .673 Wong 400 & McGuire 300> .700 1B: .840 Casas 650, Dalbec 50> .875 2B: .663 Grissom 500, Valdez 150, Reyes 50>.725 3B: .817 Devers 650, Dalbec 50> .900 SS: .636 Story 600, Reyes 100> .775 LF: .799 Duran 450, O'Neill 200, Ref 50> .775 CF: .827 Rafaela 450, Duran 150, Abreu 100> .725 RF: .725 O'Neill 400, Abreu 300> .750 DH: .755 Yoshida 650, O'Neill 50> .775 I see two positions getting worse, and the others looking pretty good, compared to 2023. Pitching: This is the hardest area to project. Losing Sale and Paxton from the rotation hurts, and with Gio getting hurt, the replacements are coming from our own system, and some had significant innings in the pen, last season. That makes pen improvement difficult. We may need these GS and IP to have a winning season. (Note: these are not projections but are more like wishes.) 32/175 Bello 32/170 Pivetta 28/150 Crawford 26/140 Whitlock 26/140 Houck 18 GS from Criswell, Anderson and others We need top health from Janse and Martin and a full season from Wink and then 2-3 other pen arms must rise to the occasion. We have a lot of arms to choose from, but we can't afford to see 3-4 fail badly as we cycle through to find some that do well. After Jansen, Martin and Wink, we have these guys: Campbell Slaten Joely Anderson Weissert Bernardino Kelly Mata Jacques (Not on 40: Luetge, Hagenman, Guerrero, Gambrell, Fitts) I may be looking through pink glasses, but I think we should win 81-84 games, this season, despite being in a division with 4 teams projected for more wins. Let's see what happens.

The projected rosters of our AAA team: SP: Gambrell, Van Belle, Jason Alexander, Criswell, Fitts RP: Bernardino, Kelly, Jacquez, Luetge, Hagenman, Booser, Shugart, Guerrero, Benitez, Polito C: Heineman, Kolozsvary 1B: Kavadas 2B: Sogard, Westbrook 3B: Meidroth SS: D Ham LF: Gonzalez, Rosier CF: Contreras RF: Guthrie DH: Hickey AA SP: Wikelman, Dobbins, Bastardo, ICoffey, Penrod, Olivarez RP: Zeferjahn, Troye, Liu, Webb, Denlinger, Cellucci, Olds plus C: Teel, Gasper 1B: Jordan 2B: Yorke 3B: Paulino, Binelas SS: Mayer LF: McDonough, B Gonzalez CF: Anthony RF: Sikes, Decker DH: Lugo Our AA team looks way more interesting than the AAA team.

It is nice to start with a win, and doing well for the first month or so seems to set the tone, sometimes, but certainly there are planty of examples of slow starting teams that reach glory. It was a nice win. There are 161 games left, so that kinda puts it in perspective. Better to win than lose. Now, let's make it two wins!

Especially on dark horse ones like Scott.

Good to see you, Thunder. I have UConn on one pool, but need a lot of upsets to have a chance. (I have TN on the other and should win it, if they beat UConn in the final.

Put this thread to bed.

Fun game to watch. Power Speed Some good D Pitching when we needed it most Nice start to '24.

The Rays are in last place all by themselves. 1-0 BAL 1-0 NYY 1-0 TOR 0-0 BOS 0-1 TBR Today's game decides first or last place for the Sox. This is the most important game of the year, (so far.) LOL

Soto just threw out the tying run at the plate. Yanks up by 1 in the bottom of the 9th w 2 outs.

Eflin gave up 6 ER in their opener v TOR. Why can't we ever get guys like... errr... never mind.

Just blame it on your interpreter.

Good to see you back, Max!

We will not be in last place by the time we play our first game!

Allowing hits and BBs.

I tried to start a new thread with a poll on how many wins the Sox would get, but the site did not allow the Poll part of the post to work. I thought I was pretty clear.

I tried to start a poll thread on predicting the Sox win total, but I could not get the poll function to work.

I like our O, a lot. When Grissom returns it might get better, although E Valdez has a lot of promise, offensively. I think McGuire might be better on O than Wong, but it's a close call. Abreu on the bench offers some good depth, as well. I like Devers 2nd and Story 3rd, as the modern philosophy down plays the 3 slot. Vs a RH SP'er, having 4 lefties in the first 5 batters is nice. Had McGuire started, we'd have 6 lefties. If Abreu ever starts over O'Neill or rafaela, we might have 7 lefties in a line-up. Our line-up vs LHPs might be a bit worrisome.

I wish opening day was a day game, but at least I'm on Central Time, so it won't be as bad as East Coasters. soxprospects.com still projects Abreu as the RF'er. MLB.com projects this opening day line-up: 1. L Duran LF 2. L Devers 3B 3. R Story SS 4. L Casas 1B 5. L Yoshida DH 6. R O'Neill RF 7. L E Valdez 2B 8. R Rafaela CF 9. R Wong C This looks right, to me.

Opening day is never dark before the game starts.

I guess I was always too high on Scott. One more wrong position.

This is the absurd part of their so-called "plan." It's not like Gambrell, Fitts and Van Belle are banging down the MLB door, anytime soon. I mean Chase & Uwa? OMG! Wink needs to stay in the pen, after it was robbed of Whit, Houck and Pivetta.

So, basically, at least for the first few months, our depth is just... Chase Wink Gambrell

I can't help feeling excited on opening day.

I can't disagree, but I think this team will be more fun to watch than last year's team. Losing Turner hurt. He was fun to watch. Which Duran shows up? Can Grissom be more like Pedey than Downs? Can our catcher mature and grow? Can casas be even better (esp on D?) Will Devers have a career year? Will Story shut Red up? Can Rafaela & Abreu earn a (long term) slot? Has Yoshida gotten acclimated? Will O'Neill bust out in his contract year? Can Bello build on a pretty solid season? Is Crawford for real? Can Whitlock finally stay healthy, all year? Can Houck get past the first 18 batters, or will doing great through 18 be just enough? Will Pivetta put together a full season for the first time of his career? Can Jansen & Martin defy age yet one more year? Can Wink repeat last year's performance? What about these new pen arms? Campbell, Slaten, Weissert? (Anderson, Luetge & the Joely we never really got to see, last year?) I think there is a good chance most of these questions are answered in a positive way in 2024, but we may need 75% or more to have good answers for us to sneak into the POs.

I'll be surprised, if we get 132 GS from our opening day 5 man rotation. Hell, 122 might be asking too much. With Murphy and Walter gone, we may end up yanking Wink from the pen for starts, but maybe it will be Chase, first. Criswell looks to be the 2nd or 3rd man in line. If we go deeper than 8, it's a dice roll on who #9 might be. Uwasawa? Gambrell? Fitts (not on 40?) Wikelman (late season?)