moonslav59

Good offensive teams are more fun to watch, too, but I am liking watching our young pitchers grow. We have some nice young pen arms, too. I've always loved watching great defense, something Sox teams are not all that great at. I like the look of our future defense, especially an OF with Rafaela, Abreu, Duran & Anthony. Mayer is a bit of an unknown on D, but word is, he's good. Casas and Grissom need to improve. Devers needs to gain consistency. I'm not sure Teel can match McGuire on D.

The RHB issue is not going away, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel are all LHBs. We took a stab at it with O'Neill and to a lesser extent with Grissom. Losing Story hurt. Wong has had big reverse splits for two years in a row. So, we mainly rely on O'Neill and Refsnyder, who himself, now has reverse splits. I guess if your LHBs are good enough, and can hit LHPs, pretty well, maybe we can get by without. It sure helped our ring teams to have Manny ('04 & '07), Napoli & Vic ('13) and JD & Bogey ('18)

Yup, and why not find out if Kavadas is maybe worth Rule 5 protection for this winter?

We are just talking about a platoon 1Bman, until Casas returns.

Sounds good, to me. My domer bias aside.

I'm not giving up on them over their meager sample size since joining the Sox. They have both sucked for 3 years- just like Dalbec. I do think Cooper still has some hope, but Smith has 3+ years of doing nothing- Dalbec is 2+ years. Kavadas is raking in AAA, and his BB rate is a second plus to his power. I know AAA success is not always a good predictor, but I think he could be given a look over Smith. The Dalbec vs Cooper choice is close to a coin-toss, to me. I'd be fine with sticking with Cooper for a while longer.

I'm not optimistic about out future due to anything the Sox brass has fed the media over the years. I don't trust a thing they say. I'm not expecting a change from them. I'm not sure they will ever invest in the team, again, and I'm not counting on it, but I'm also not discounting it like some are. Bloom chose to draft mostly HS prospects high in the draft. I don't need top brass to tell me I'll have to wait. It is what it is. That time seems to be very near, now. That gives me hope. If I'm in a small minority, so be it. It would not be the first time. I've admitted our young core or "foundation" is not as good as several other teams, on paper. I get that. I'm not projecting our roster to be the strongest in MLB in 2026, but I do think it will be much better and playoff worthy, perhaps as soon as 2025. A lot will depend on what pieces we acquire to fill the gaps, which seems to always be the case. That is the great unknown and something that kicks my optimism in the gut, but even with nothing added, I think we will be better. C: Wong & Teel > Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas in prime> Pre-prime Casas/Dalbec/Cooper/Smith 2B: Future Grissom & Story/Yorke/Valdez > This year's merry-go-round SS: Mayer & Story> This year's merry-go-round 3B: Devers= and older Devers & Story or Mayer? LF: Duran/Ref=Duran/Ref CF: Rafaela/Duran & Anthony > Rafaela/Duran & others RF: Abreu & O'Neill ?> Abreu & Anthony DH: O'Neill & Yoshi ?> Abreu/Devers/Casas/Yoshida I like or rotation future core better than I did in March. I like our future pen depth better than I did in March. It will probably not be enough for another ing, unless we add outside pieces, but I do see improvement, ahead. Nothing is a guarantee, of course.

No doubt. On the 3 year decline by Dalbec. You are correct. His K rate is frightening. In no way am I optimistic about Dalbec. He's done well in AAA, before, only to crap the bed, when called up. The decline of Cooper and Smit is a real, too. While their K rates are not close to Bobby Dee's, their decline is just as long, if not longer. Cooper is with his 4th team in 2 years. Could that be viewed second or third chances? His decline began in 2021, although, like Dalbec, that was a good season (128 OPS+.) 2022: 112 OPS+ 2023: 94 OPS+ (2 teams) 2024: 78 OPS+ (2 teams) Smith has been on 3 teams in 3 years and was not even on a ML roster to start 2024, so one could easily say 2023 and 2024 are his second and third chances. His moments of good play was from 2019-2020 (before Dalbec's 2020-2021 good stretch) Smith (19-20) 150 OPS+ in just 396 PAs Dalbec (20-21) 114 OPS+ in 545 PAs (way more PAs but not as good.) Smith dropped off a cliff after 2020. It was not slow & steady decline. He has sucked since then. He has had an 84 OPS+ since 2021 in 1304 PAs. True, Dalbec's OPS+ is 64 since 2021 and 174 Ks in 465 PAs looks undeserving of another chance. I get that. My point is Smith and Cooper also look unworthy of more chances, too. It's a lose-lose type of choice.Kavadas is the unknown. We kinda know what the other three can and might do.

Correct, again, Max. The promising part of this season and beyond are all the players with several years of team control that have yet to even reach their arb years, several in their early arb years and a few younger players locked up to multi-year lower cost contracts. Although Devers is not inexpensive, he is just 27 and has 9 years of control left (to age 36.) Story is not young, but not old, either (31 with 3 more years.) Yoshida is 30 and has 3 years left. While these three high paid players, combined look like a drag on the budget, it may not be as bad as past budget woes and dead weight overloads. All three still have promise, with Devers still being our top offensive threat. Now, to the promise: Like them or not, here are out longer term deals with younger players: $9.2M x 4 more seasons after 2024 + an option for 2030 $6.3M x 7 more seasons after 2024 $4.7M x 2 more seasons after 2024 Arbitration players by years (starting in 2025) 4 Crawford & Duran 3 Houck & Dalbec Pre-Arbitration... Arb starts in 2026: Casas, Wink & Wong Arbs that start after 2026: Abreu, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, Criswell, Grissom, Romy, DHam Kelly, Valdez, Murphy, Campbell, Mata, Booser, Walter This young foundation may not match those of BAL & ATL, but it is pretty solid. I guess some posters could care less, but some of us do.

They might: they could, but I'd like to see us add a solid closer, this winter. At minimum, we need a TOR SP'er, a closer and maybe... Solid power RHB SP depth 2-4 quality players- no half measures. Let the depth be filled by the kids.

That was no fun watching, at all.

A good guy, first and foremost. Genuine. Smart. Funny. During his best 3 year stretch in the NBA, he never played more than 65 games, which was a shame. He did put up these numbers, in those 3 years (age 23-25) 18.0 PPG 13.7 Rebounds (led league once) 4.3 Assists (among the best by a center in any 3 year span.) 2.5 Blocks 1.0 Steals Per 100 possessions: ~24 PPG ~18 RPG ~6 APG ~3.5 Blocks and 1.5 Steals per game 1977 Playoffs: 18.2 PPG 15.2 RPG 5.5 APG 3.4 BLKPG 1.1 SPG Of course, the numbers do not tell the whole story on this guy. He transcended the game, itself.

The foot injury really prevented him from dominating the NBA for years. The year with Portland was special, too. He might have been the best college basketball player of all time. Points Rebounds Assists Defense He did it all. He was near the best, if not the very best, at his position in all for categories.

There doesn't seem to be much hope for slots in our line-up: 1B, 2B and SS. To me, Grissom might be the best hope for marked improvement without an outside addition, but the 3 black holes are killing us. Before today: .418 2B is unspeakably hiddeous. .712 SS (helped by Romy/DHam started playing more/ hurt by Rafaela playing more SS) .712 1B (dropping fast after the Casas injury) .615 CF (with Rafaela playing more SS, and Duran more CF, I'm not counting CF.)

Looks like another snake bite game. 2 manufactured runs for the O's. Bases loaded and 1 out- no runs for the Sox.

One of the very best players and men in the world.

It's non-plays like that one that have added to the needless runs allowed beyond all the unearned runs. It's hard to quantify the amount of runs we have allowed like that one, but it seems like at least a dozen, this season. Add those to the 37 unearned runs, and we might be near 50. That is 25% of all runs we have allowed!

I'm not going to pretend to know more than Cora. Yesterday, I suggested he "rest" Abreu. I do find it interesting these 4 guys are on the bench: .859 Abreu (3rd on team in OPS) although Irvin is another LHP .843 O'Neill (5th among active players) although slumping and knee issue .730 DHam (7th on current 26 man roster) hard to advocate for him .684 McGuire (8th on current roster) same here 4 of our top 8 batters are on the bench (The 4 worst on the 13 on the roster are in today's line-up) Worst batters in the last 2 weeks: .344 Grissom (playing) .461 McGuire (bench) .490 Cooper (playing) .554 O'Neill (bench) .566 Rafaela (playing) .646 Romy (playing) .666 Wong (playing) (DHam at .975 & Abreu at .875 on bench) Ref has been killing LHPs, this year and is in the line-up.

Yes, over his career (fangraphs): 55% Fastball 39% Splitter 4% Cutter 3% Change-up Mo: 76% Cutter 10% Sinker Kimbrel: 68% Fastball 31% Curveball Jansen 73% Fastball 17% Cutter 9% Slider Papelbon 73% Fastball 16% Splitter 10% Slider We might be arguing semantics, here, but what and who is a one-pitch great closer? 80-90%? I don't see one. Is 76% a one pitch closer?

My guess is, they ride Smith and Cooper to the Casas return, whenever that is. I'm not sure June 21st is that time, but I hope so. It would be a nice start to the summer.

I don't think giving Dalbec one more chance is a bad idea. Playing one or both of Cooper or Smith, everyday is not working. A Dalbec/Kavadas platoon at 1B should not be any worse than Cooper/Smith, although many saw replacing Dalbec as essential a month ago. There is no surer solution at 1B within our system, right now.

Thanks for highlighting a big issue with this team and it's budget. It is also evidence to show why JH is shying away from large and long contracts (besides Devers.) I realize some are convince JH will never spend bigly, again. That very well MIGHT be the case, but nobody knows for sure. When this "wasted money" comes off the books, we could not top this year's budget and still make some gains by getting our signings right, for once. The $23M "saved" by losing the Sale, Turner & Joely commitments could be a nice FA signings. We will, however, be facing some hard roles to fill, at the same cost as these guys are now: $16M Jansen (might not be too hard to replace at $16M/per season) $7.5M Martin (very hard to replace at this cost.) $7.5M Pivetta (very hard) $5.9M O'Neill (might be hard) Cooper, Smith and Anderson should be easily replaced. Finding a taker for half or more of Yoshida's contract might be impossible, so we probably keep him and pray for a turn-around. We have 3 more years of his $18M and Story's $23.3M and one more year of Gio at $19M. The budget is not really a hot mess, going forward, and if JH does decide to spend more (not a projection,) we could see a solid team as early as 2025 or 2026. C Wong & Teel (McGuire for '25) 1B Casas (Kavadas/ Devers?) 2B Grissom (Story/Yorke/Valdez/DHam/Romy) SS Story & Mayer (Rafaela/Romy) 3B Devers (Mayer or Story?) LF Duran & Abreu/Refsnyder CF Rafaela & Anthony (Duran) RF Abreu & Anthony (Refsnyder) DH Yoshida & Refsnyder (Kavadas/Casas or Devers if Devers to 1B/DH) No FAs needed for everyday players, except maybe a big RH'd bat, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel all bat left-handed. Money will need to be spent on pitching, as always. The losses of Jansen, Martin and Pivetta (Gio after 2025,) alone will force some sort of additions. 2025 Staff ______, Houck, Crawford, Gio, Bello (Criswell, Whitlock/Fitts to pen) ______, _______, Hendriks, Slaten, Bernardino, Weissert, (Whitlock/Cooper/Fitts) or Wink/I Campbell/Fulmer/Kelly/Booser 2026 Staff Gio> Fitts or Criswell? Hendriks & Fulmer> Wink/Kelly/Guerrero/Murphy/Wikelman

We could extend him 1-2 years beyond arbs, but now it will be very costly, and perhaps too big of a gamble. Knowing our luck, he'd go on the IL w TJS a day after he signs. Crawford might be a better bet at extending, now. I'd still think about Pivetta on a 3 year extension.

Agreed, but let's not forget problem #2, which has been improved upon over the last few weeks: Unearned Runs Allowed (not to mention earned runs allowed that could have been prevented with just average defense.) 37 BOS 7th in runs allowed (Most Unearned allowed)/13th in Runs scored 26 PHI (Best record in NL) 6 in runs allowed/ 1st in Runs scored 21 BAL (3rd best record in AL) 5 in runs allowed/7th in Runs scored 17 ATL (Best record in NLE) 3 in runs allowed/ 13th in Runs scored 15 MIL (Best record in NLC) 10th in runs allowed/6th in Runs scored 15 SEA (Best record in ALW) 9th in runs allowed/27th in Runs scored 15 CLE (Best record in AL) 4 in runs allowed/4th in Runs scored 14 LAD (Best record in NLW) 8th in runs allowed/2nd in Runs scored 14 MIN (5th best record in AL) 14th in runs allowed 13 NYY (Best record in ALE) 1 in runs allowed/3rd in Runs scored 12 KCR (4th best record in AL) 2 in runs allowed/4 in Runs scored Red = outliers Clearly the difference in Unearned Runs allowed has made a difference with the Sox and those above them in the WC standings. -1.5 MIN (23 less UnERs allowed) -6.5 KCR (24 less) -7.5 BAL (16 less) -0.5 SEA (22 less for the ALW leader) Here is another way to look at it: Run differential vs record rankings and ER vs UnER differential vs record rankings: Run Diff 1. +93 PHI 1st in W-L record in MLB 2. +92 NYY 3rd best record in MLB 3. +79 KCR 5th 4. +73 CLE 2nd 5. +69 LAD 6th 6. +47 ATL 7th 7. +45 MIL 8th 8. +32 BOS 11th 9. +4 MIN 8th 18. -7 SEA 8th LEAST UnEarned runs: 12 KCR (5) 13 NYY (3) 14 LAD (6) & MIN (8) 15 CLE (2), MIL (8), SEA (8) 17 ATL (7) 21 BAL (4) 26 PHI (1) 37 BOS (11) While W-L seems to jive closer to best W-L records, 3 teams are outliers in the W-L standings compared to RUN Differential: BOS is better than MIN & SEA, but are on the outside of the playoffs. When you look at UnER vs ERs, no team is an outlier.

Hats off to a nice start to the season. Despite some clear drop offs by some, others have picked up the slack. Your big 3 batters have all played 48 or more games. Your everyday players have avoided the IL, so far, except for LeMahieu, who was not really someone you needed to do very well. You have 8 starts with 45+ games and your two catchers with 32 & 33 games played. Will that continue? Your staff has been really good, but here is something I can't see continuing: ZERO starts by anyone out side your current 5 in the rotation. While the Sox rotation has gotten a lot of the attention from the media, these numbers are astounding: 2.11 Luis Gil (10 GS/55IP) 2.52 Schmidt (11/61) 2.76 Stroman (11/62) 2.95 Rodon (11/61) 3.29 Cortes (11/66) If one does go down, maybe Cole will be ready, when they do. (Counting on pitchers returning is not fun, as any Sox fan can attest to.) Your pen has been good, too, despite seeing many on the IL. No doubt, if you guys keep playing like this, you'll finish with the best AL record. A lot can happen over 2/3 of a season.