moonslav59

In the context of bringing up Kavadas, replacing the LHB Smith makes more sense. Plus she sucks on D. The debate on Cooper is vs Dalbec, and choosing Cooper is a valid choice.

Well stated.

After less than 2 months on Rafaela? lol! Bello is doing worse than I hoped for in his 8 GS sample size. Whoop-Dee- freaking- do

Better than the far and away worst D in the league does not make it fun. I wouldn't say more fun, either. I'd say "less painful."

Can you stop with the 50-60 PA talk? How about his last 1308 PAs? .660 OPS and 84 OPS+ While this is better than Dalbec's last 2 season's, Dalbec's last 1010 (career) PAs is at .723 and 92 OPS+. (I'm not advocating for Dalbec over Smith or Cooper. I'd like to see Kavadas replace Smith.)

...and again, this is not just a one month slump for Smith. I don't get the faith placed in Smith. He hasn't been good since his 199 PA season of 2020. Yes, 2020, for God's sake! .667 in '21 (83 OPS+) Even Dalbec was way, way, way better that year .560 in '22 (62 OPS+) Dalbec was at .652 and 80 OPS+ .692 in '23 (94 OPS+) was an improvement but still really bad for a 1Bman. .556 in '24 (57 OPS+) He sucks on D. He is below replacement value, yet we worry about not being able to replace him, if Kavadas sucks, too? LOL

Worse than Smith cannot make a significant difference, unless he goes 1 for 40. You think there are no more Smith's out there? Hell, Smith himself will likely be available, again in a month or two, assuming Casas is not back by then.

Yes. I also likes Imanga and Seth Lugo more than Gio and others. I also thought a short deal for Sonny Gray made sense. I was not high on Stroman, and I felt he was like Gio, but he'd have been a better pick, in hindsight.

Neither Cooper or Smith have done much for 2-3 years. This not about one bad month with the Sox. They have both sucked for about as long as Dalbec or even longer. Their declines began 3-4 years ago. I'm fine with keeping Dalbec in AAA, or even DFA'ing him, if we need a slot on the 40, but I think Kavadas should get a chance to at least platoon with Copper at 1B. Can we please stop DH'ing Cooper and Smith? I'd rather see DHam, Wong/McGuire or Romy DH, as yucky as that sounds.

The long and sustained success by the Astros followed a similar path. The Sox never hit the rock bottom those two teams did, so we did not get the #1-#3 picks, year after year, like they did. Our farm is not as good as theirs was, which is understandable. Some wise picks by DD & Bloom and a few losing seasons have helped build up the farm and the young/younger core of the 26 man roster, but it does not seem to be enough, even if a lot goes right with the kids. We will almost certainly need some big spending or a massive change in luck or whatever you want to call it on choosing who we spend moderately on. Had Sale gotten hurt, again and Gio returned to 90% of his form or Grissom was at a .780 OPS, which all seemed possible in March, the talk would be much different, right now. We've made some very bad choices, of which number one was not keeping Betts. It seems like that choice jinxed us. You also get what you pay for and trying to strike gold with $10M/1 deals for SP'ers is asking for trouble. The Story and Yoshida signings hurt, badly, and not just because of their failure to produce. The budget space they ate up, prevented gains in other areas. Gio is like Kluber + Richards. It's hard to blame Brez for choosing Gio over someone like maybe Stroman. He got one signing wrong, but it was his biggest signing. His next biggest deal was Sale & $$$ for Grissom. That is not looking good, so far. Like Bloom, his lesser deals seem to be working better. I hope his results don't mirror Bloom's.

This makes sense. I'm not sure about the Bello/Rafaela comment, but time will tell. We bet on their future, not just a couple months.

The 2015 Royals were not "bottom 5," but they spent about half as much as #2 NYY and significantly less than half of the #1 LAD. The spent $25M more than the top of the bottom 5 teams and almost $60M less than the bottom of the top 5 spenders. Nobody is saying money doesn't matter. Spending does improve the odds, most seasons. The vast majority of playoff teams are top 10-15 spenders, over the years. How a team spends seems to be more important than how much, and a healthy mix of low-cost, home-grown players on the team is just about as essential as spending wisely.

...and once in it's a crapshoot, right?

I asked a question. I'm not defending JH. Nobody knows if he will spend bigly, again, and I am not counting on it or expe cting it. I just have not discounted the possibility.

There is a road, no simple highway Between the dawn and the dark of night And if you go, no one may follow That path is for your steps alone

Baseball will improve.

It's not fun watching this D.

Good offensive teams are more fun to watch, too, but I am liking watching our young pitchers grow. We have some nice young pen arms, too. I've always loved watching great defense, something Sox teams are not all that great at. I like the look of our future defense, especially an OF with Rafaela, Abreu, Duran & Anthony. Mayer is a bit of an unknown on D, but word is, he's good. Casas and Grissom need to improve. Devers needs to gain consistency. I'm not sure Teel can match McGuire on D.

The RHB issue is not going away, as Mayer, Anthony and Teel are all LHBs. We took a stab at it with O'Neill and to a lesser extent with Grissom. Losing Story hurt. Wong has had big reverse splits for two years in a row. So, we mainly rely on O'Neill and Refsnyder, who himself, now has reverse splits. I guess if your LHBs are good enough, and can hit LHPs, pretty well, maybe we can get by without. It sure helped our ring teams to have Manny ('04 & '07), Napoli & Vic ('13) and JD & Bogey ('18)

Yup, and why not find out if Kavadas is maybe worth Rule 5 protection for this winter?

We are just talking about a platoon 1Bman, until Casas returns.

Sounds good, to me. My domer bias aside.

I'm not giving up on them over their meager sample size since joining the Sox. They have both sucked for 3 years- just like Dalbec. I do think Cooper still has some hope, but Smith has 3+ years of doing nothing- Dalbec is 2+ years. Kavadas is raking in AAA, and his BB rate is a second plus to his power. I know AAA success is not always a good predictor, but I think he could be given a look over Smith. The Dalbec vs Cooper choice is close to a coin-toss, to me. I'd be fine with sticking with Cooper for a while longer.

I'm not optimistic about out future due to anything the Sox brass has fed the media over the years. I don't trust a thing they say. I'm not expecting a change from them. I'm not sure they will ever invest in the team, again, and I'm not counting on it, but I'm also not discounting it like some are. Bloom chose to draft mostly HS prospects high in the draft. I don't need top brass to tell me I'll have to wait. It is what it is. That time seems to be very near, now. That gives me hope. If I'm in a small minority, so be it. It would not be the first time. I've admitted our young core or "foundation" is not as good as several other teams, on paper. I get that. I'm not projecting our roster to be the strongest in MLB in 2026, but I do think it will be much better and playoff worthy, perhaps as soon as 2025. A lot will depend on what pieces we acquire to fill the gaps, which seems to always be the case. That is the great unknown and something that kicks my optimism in the gut, but even with nothing added, I think we will be better. C: Wong & Teel > Wong & McGuire 1B: Casas in prime> Pre-prime Casas/Dalbec/Cooper/Smith 2B: Future Grissom & Story/Yorke/Valdez > This year's merry-go-round SS: Mayer & Story> This year's merry-go-round 3B: Devers= and older Devers & Story or Mayer? LF: Duran/Ref=Duran/Ref CF: Rafaela/Duran & Anthony > Rafaela/Duran & others RF: Abreu & O'Neill ?> Abreu & Anthony DH: O'Neill & Yoshi ?> Abreu/Devers/Casas/Yoshida I like or rotation future core better than I did in March. I like our future pen depth better than I did in March. It will probably not be enough for another ing, unless we add outside pieces, but I do see improvement, ahead. Nothing is a guarantee, of course.

No doubt. On the 3 year decline by Dalbec. You are correct. His K rate is frightening. In no way am I optimistic about Dalbec. He's done well in AAA, before, only to crap the bed, when called up. The decline of Cooper and Smit is a real, too. While their K rates are not close to Bobby Dee's, their decline is just as long, if not longer. Cooper is with his 4th team in 2 years. Could that be viewed second or third chances? His decline began in 2021, although, like Dalbec, that was a good season (128 OPS+.) 2022: 112 OPS+ 2023: 94 OPS+ (2 teams) 2024: 78 OPS+ (2 teams) Smith has been on 3 teams in 3 years and was not even on a ML roster to start 2024, so one could easily say 2023 and 2024 are his second and third chances. His moments of good play was from 2019-2020 (before Dalbec's 2020-2021 good stretch) Smith (19-20) 150 OPS+ in just 396 PAs Dalbec (20-21) 114 OPS+ in 545 PAs (way more PAs but not as good.) Smith dropped off a cliff after 2020. It was not slow & steady decline. He has sucked since then. He has had an 84 OPS+ since 2021 in 1304 PAs. True, Dalbec's OPS+ is 64 since 2021 and 174 Ks in 465 PAs looks undeserving of another chance. I get that. My point is Smith and Cooper also look unworthy of more chances, too. It's a lose-lose type of choice.Kavadas is the unknown. We kinda know what the other three can and might do.